Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February, 13

Marc Lawrence

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Phoenix Suns

It appears as if the career of Suns? point guard Steve Nash is starting to set. The 16-year vet will likely miss the postseason for a second consecutive season as his Phoenix squad is ahead of only three teams in the Western Conference standings. However, one of those teams is tonight?s opponent, the Golden State Warriors ? a team the Suns beat with more regularity than a senior citizen on Milk of Magnesia. Phoenix has won 10 of the last 11 in the series, including an 11-point win earlier this year in the desert. That victory sets the stage for more of the same tonight as our Playbook.com database notes: sub .555 teams with same-season double-digit loss revenge against the Suns are just 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS. Toss in the fact that the Warriors, who are arriving off a triple-revenger with the Rockets, are just 2-6 and 1-7 ATS versus losing opposition this season. More of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Phoenix.

Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

The Wolves have pled well this season and are over .500 on the road this season. Tonight they fit a solid system that is 53-22 to the spread. We want to play on road dogs with rest off a home favored loss as a favorite of 5 or more points, vs an opponent off a road win as long as the road win was not as a dog of 5 or more points. The Magic have had trouble as a home favorite from -3.5 to -6 losing all 3 times this season. Minnesota has covered all 3 times this season as a road dog form +3,5 to +6 and 6 of 8 on the road when the total is 190 to 195. Orlando is just 6-14 to the spread vs Northwest Division teams. Look for the Wolves to get the cash tonight.

Bryan Power

Miami @ Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +6.5

Too many points for the visiting Heat to be laying in this matchup w/ the Bucks. There is actually a double-revenge angle in play here thanks to the Bucks pulling not one, but a pair of upsets over Miami already this year. On January 22nd, they went into South Beach and surprisingly dominated 91-82 despite shooting just 5 of 30 from three-point range. Then on the 1st of this month, they overcame a fast start from LeBron James to pull out a 105-97 win here at the Bradley Center. The first time the Heat lost the Bucks they found themselves in the second night of back to backs, just as they are here. Granted it was a very easy win at division rival Atlanta last night on ESPN (107-87 as 4.5-point favorites), but Miami was also coming off a huge win (in this case, Philly) the night before the first loss to Milwaukee. The Heat are 0 for their last 3 ATS on the road when playing w/out rest.

Jim Feist

Suns vs Warriors
Pick: Over

my free play for Monday, February 13, 2012 is in the NBA schedule between the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors. The Golden State Warriors continue to produce points. After Sunday's game, the Warriors have now scored over 100 points in five straight games and seven of their last eight. And, while they score points, they don't exactly play much defense, giving up 97 to Houston on Sunday and over 100 to their previous four opponents. In fact, the Warriors are tied for last in the NBA with Charlotte in points allowed per game (100.9). Tonight the Warriors host a Suns club that has allowed more points per game (96.1) then they have scored (93.4). However, I expect to see both those numbers going up on Monday as the Suns get the Warriors defense. I think this is a perfect matchup for a high scoring affair and my free play for Monday is to take the OVER between the Suns and Warriors.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS +4/+166 over Utah

It's not easy to pull the trigger on the Hornets and their 4-23 record. Only the Bobcats have less wins. Slightly better is New Orleans’ 10-17 against the spread and they play the final game of a four-game home stand before embarking on a six-game trip. We expect them to dig down deep. We've seen the Hornets compete against some good teams. While losing is both frustrating and contagious, the Hornets haven’t given up. We get as good an effort from them as we do most teams on most nights. The Jazz are 14-12, largely aided by an 11-5 home mark. On the road, they have just three wins in 10 games. They had two wins prior to last night's win in Memphis and will now play its third game in four days here. The Jazz also play in Oklahoma City tomorrow night after losing to them in Salt Lake on Friday. The Jazz are a huge risk as road chalk under good conditions. Under these tough conditions, that risk increases. Play: New Orleans +4 (Risking 1.06 units to win 1) Play: New Orleans +166 (Risking 1 unit).

Minnesota +193 +5½ over ORLANDO

The Magic are a talented bunch and have been for years. Over the past five years, you would be hard pressed to find a team with a better overall record in the East. This season, Orlando is 17-11 despite the Dwight Howard ordeal hanging overhead. Still, Orlando has taken more nights off this season than most. Find them in an undesirable spot and chances are you'll cash your ticket. With five wins in seven games, including a win over the Heat and with the 76ers on deck, this could certainly be one such spot. Orlando played in Philly less than two weeks ago and scored a paltry 69 points. The final score read 74-69 but Philly was up 21 with three minutes to go. A game against the Western conference Timberwolves is unlikely to get their juices flowing. Minnesota comes in erratic but very dangerous. They have all the right pieces in place with a strong coach in Rick Adelman, a thunderous power forward in Kevin Love, an outstanding rookie at PG in Ricky Rubio and a strong center in Nikola Pekovic. The T-Wolves are just two games under .500 and appear to be on the verge of something good. Against what should be a semi-interested Magic squad here, they can certainly come in and steal a win. Play: Minnesota +5½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play: Minnesota +193 (Risking 1 unit).

Vegas Experts

Kansas at Kansas State
Play: Kansas State

Must win game for K-State on Big Monday, hosting rival Kansas on ESPN. This is a brutal scheduling spot for the Jayhawks, who are playing for a fourth time in 10 days, and a third time on road. And they weren't just any two road games previously; they've played at both Missouri (lost) and Baylor (won). The home team has won and covered five straight in this rivalry. The Wildcats were on the wrong end of a lopsided free throw differential over the weekend against Texas.

Scott Rickenbach

Kansas @ Kansas State
PICK: Kansas -3.5

Rivalry Week may have been last week, but there is no love lost between these Big 12 foes. The Kansas Jayhawks are trying to stay at the top of the conference, competing with the Missouri Tigers for the Big 12 regular season title. The Kansas State Wildcats are likely their toughest challenge on the remaining schedule until a showdown with the Tigers on Feb. 25. Head coach Bill Self is a master to getting his team’s ready for the postseason and the biggest hurdle he’s had to jump has been the Jayhawks’ lack of scoring depth behind stars Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor. Seven-foot center Jeff Withey has been the answer in recent outings, scoring 25 points versus Baylor and posting 18 points and 20 rebounds in this past weekend’s win over Oklahoma State. A tough inside presence is what KU needs heading into Manhattan. The Wildcats aren’t as talented as past seasons, but have some physical forwards who like to crash and bash in the paint, taking less-physical opponents out of their comfort zone. However, KSU couldn’t seem to intimidate a young Texas program this weekend, giving up a 15-point second half lead and sending the Longhorns to the line 48 times. They will find themselves in trouble if they follow a similar game plan against a much more savvy Jayhawks program that is heating up just in time for March. Looking back at past meetings, this state rivalry has been one-sided at the window, with KU covering the spread in 21 of its last 28 meetings with KSU, including a 9-3 ATS mark in its last 12 trips to the Little Apple. Play on Kansas as a Free Pick Opinion Play Selection Monday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +145 over MONTREAL

The Canadiens are playing much better lately. They're on a four-game winning streak in which they outscored the opposition 15-4. They're coming off that convincing 5-0 victory in Toronto on Saturday night and all this has them overpriced. The Habs are still the same team they were two weeks ago. They had 18 shots on net Saturday and scored five times. Two others wins came against Winnipeg and the Islanders, the former at home. Montreal has its biggest rivals on deck, the Bruins on Wednesday, thus, this game is sandwiched betweeen Toronto and Boston. Carolina comes in rested and having picked up points in eight of its past nine games. The Canes are healthy, they're playing their best hockey of the season and there's no question that they're being undervalued here against a Montreal club in an unfavorable spot. We're going to play this one in regulation only because the Canes have lost five straight in extra time. Play: Carolina +145 (Risking 2 units).

Free NBA Release for 2/13: New Orleans Hornets +4.5 over the Utah Jazz. New Orleans is showing excellent value at home Monday night in a situational play. New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, so the oddsmakers are begging the public to side with them. But they enter tonight's game well rested, having the last two nights off. Note that the Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on two days of rest. They'll also be catching the Jazz in the middle of back-to-back-to-back nights on the road. Utah won SU as a six point dog last night in Memphis, and they'll most likely be over looking tonights matchup against the lowly Hornets while looking ahead to a bigger game tomorrow in Oklahoma City. These two faced off in Utah back in early January (where the Jazz are 11-5 this year), and the Hornets lost by 4 but covered as a 6.5 dog. But even after last nights W in Memphis, Utah is still just 3-7 away from home this season. Considering the situation, we suspect the Hornets may pull the upset S/U in New Orleans. The Jazz have been prone to overlook losing teams, going 1-5 ATS in the last 6 such situations. And they are only 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a S.U. win. The underdog has cashed in 4 straight times in this series, and we expect that trend to continue here. We'll take the home dog, New Orleans +4.5. Our free plays are 161-85-1 all-time. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to receive all of our free releases via email. Thank you, and good luck.

WUNDERDOG

Los Angeles at Dallas
Pick: Under 187

The Dallas Mavericks lost some key pieces from their Championship team from a year ago. They are also lowering the regular season workload of Dirk Nowitski, their best player. Nowitski is playing a few less minutes per night, and his points have dropped significantly from a year ago at over 5 points less per game. The focal point has become the defense. After allowing 104 points or more in their first three games this season, the Mavs have allowed just one team to top the 104-point mark since in 25 games. These teams played a game at Los Angeles earlier this year that reached just 180 points. These clubs have also produced a 19-9 UNDER mark in their last 28 meetings and Dallas has played six straight UNDERs vs. a winning team. Play this one UNDER the total.

Rocketman

San Jose Sharks vs. Washington Capitals
Play: San Jose Sharks

San Jose is 122-81 since 1996 when playing back to back days. Washington is 1-8 this year after 3 or more consecutive unders. Washington is 114-159 since 1996 in non-conference games. San Jose is 18-3-1 SU overall vs Washington since 1996. Sharks are 4-1 in their last 5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Sharks are 40-14 in their last 54 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Sharks are 26-10-1 in their last 37 vs. Southeast. Sharks are 61-25 in their last 86 games playing on 0 days rest. Sharks are 70-33-2 in their last 105 vs. Eastern Conference. Capitals are 2-5 in their last 7 overall. Capitals are 2-6 in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. Capitals are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. Pacific. Capitals are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Capitals are 0-5 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sharks are 15-1 in the last 16 meetings. Sharks are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Washington. We'll recommend a small play on San Jose tonight!

Sean Murphy

Minnesota @ Orlando
PICK: Over 189

The T'Wolves were simply outclassed in this matchup last season, dropping a pair of games, while giving up 128 and 108 points.

In fact, Orlando has had its way with Minnesota offensively for years, putting up over 100 points in eight consecutive meetings in this series.

The T'Wolves appear better-suited to answer back this season, with an offense that averages over 96 points per game. Unlike previous years, this Minnesota squad can play on the road as well, having posted a 6-5 SU record, while averaging just shy of 97 ppg.

Minnesota has scored over 100 points in three of its last four road contests. The T'Wolves were without Kevin Love in Memphis in the only game they didn't reach the century mark over that stretch.

Defensively, we've seen the T'Wolves regress over the last couple of games, allowing 104 and 100 points in home losses against Dallas and New York, respectively. I'm still expecting some defensive regression from Minnesota on the road, where it currently allows only 94 ppg on 42.3% shooting.

In terms of defense vs. offense, the T'Wolves are still faced with similar matchup issues that surfaced last season against the Magic. Orlando's offense has started to come around in recent weeks, and there's no denying they can fill it up from anywhere on the floor.

Of particular concern is the Magic's 3-point shooting. They've connected on close to 39% of their attempts from beyond the arc over the last five games.

Last season, we saw closing totals of 204.5 and 209.5 in this matchup. In fact, this is the lowest total we've seen in this series since way back in November of 2007. The total closed at 188 in that game, with the final score reaching 214 points.

All things considered, I'm confident we'll see this game creep into the 190s before the final buzzer sounds.

Teddy Covers

Iowa State @ Baylor
PICK: Iowa State

The Cyclones have been an undervalued commodity since the start of Big 12 play. Expectations were low in Ames once again this year – just like they are most years. And Iowa State did not overachieve against the spread in non-conference play, with a mediocre 4-5 ATS mark through their first nine lined games.

But things have changed since Big 12 play began in early January. Fred Hoiberg’s squad has reeled off an impressive 9-2-1 ATS run that includes outright road wins at Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma; as well as tight, competitive spread covering defeats against quality foes like Kansas and Texas. With four key transfers in the rotation – including three starters that came over from Big 10 schools – Hoiberg has crafted a roster that is just getting better and better as the season progresses.

Baylor is headed in the opposite direction. The Bears played great basketball in November and December, but the wheels have come off the train in recent weeks: 4-4 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last eight ballgames. Baylor is coming off a pair of demoralizing defeats at the hands of Big 12 heavyweights Kansas and Missouri in their last two games, essentially ending their regular season. Baylor is not going to win the conference, and their ticket is already punched for the Big Dance, leaving the next few weeks as a very dangerous time to be supporting this slumping squad.

We’ve seen repeated mental meltdowns from the Bears down the stretch of close games, blowing late leads and covers with surprising consistency. The Bears only double digit wins in conference play have come against Big 12 bottom feeders Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma – three of the four weaklings in the conference. They’ll need to win by double digits here to cover this spread; something I’m more than willing to bet against given their recent track record. Take Iowa State.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Dallas Mavericks -4

The Mavs had won 10 in a row in this series prior to losing by two points in L.A. on Jan. 18 when Chauncey Billups hit a go-ahead three-pointer with one-second left. You better believe the Mavs haven't forgotten about that loss, which is all the motivation they'll need tonight.

The Mavs still hold a nine-game home winning streak in this matchup, and I expect them to build on it here. It is worth noting that these nine wins have come by an average of 11.4 points.

This is the type of game, which is likely to be close throughout, when the Clippers will really miss Billups. Without his unwavering confidence to take and make big shots down the stretch, I believe Dallas will be a little too much in the end. Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry are better closers than anyone the Clippers have.

The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Mavericks are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall, 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games following a win and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.

The Mavs have covered the spread in seven of the last eight in this series. We'll lay the points.