Jack Jones
Utah Jazz -4
The New Orleans Hornets are neck-and-neck with the Charlotte Bobcats for the worst team in the league. They should be a much bigger underdog tonight against the Utah Jazz, who remain one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.
Utah is 14-12 on the season. They picked up a signature road win last night in Memphis by a final of 98-88, and I look for them to come into this game against the Hornets with a lot of confidence. The Jazz are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings with New Orleans.
The Hornets are just 4-23 on the season and things aren't getting any better. New Orleans is 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall, getting beat by double-digits five times. They are missing several key players right now, including PG Jarrett Jack, SG Eric Gordon, F Carl Landry, F Jason Smith and C Chris Kaman. They simply cannot be competitive with all of these injuries.
The Jazz are 50-26 ATS in their last 76 versus terrible 3 point shooting teams -making <=30% of their attempts. New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The Hornets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog. Utah is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New Orleans. Bet the Jazz Monday.
Joseph D'Amico
Kansas vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas -4
These two teams met in the beginning of January with Kansas prevailing, 67-49. That win and cover marked 8 wins over Kansas State in the L9 meetings, as the Jayhawks covered 7 of the 9 contests. I have watched the Wildcats look vulnerable quite often this season. They are missing that "go-to" guy that Guard, Jacob Pullen was for them last year. They play strong "D" but can not match up with Robinson and Withey (27.3 PPG and 18.4 RPG combined) down low. The Kansas Big Men can and will score at will and can contain K State in the paint. That will force the Wildcats to shoot from the outside, where they are just 30.4 % from beyond the arc. Kansas is allowing 61.2 PPG. A lot has to do with the development of Jeff Withey. The seven-footer has 79 blocks on "D". But his offensive game has stepped up quite nicely as the Center showed with his 25 points scored against Baylor and his 18 points/20 rebounds performance over Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks are 21-7 ATS their L28 games against the Wildcats and 7-2 ATS their L9 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played at home and 0-7 ATS their L7 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take Kansas.
Steve Janus
Miami Heat -6
The Miami Heat have lost just seven games all season, yet they have already lost twice to the Milwaukee Bucks. Forget the fact that Miami is playing the second of a back-to-back set on the road and have another game tomorrow night at Indiana. The Heat will be out for revenge in this game and I don't think there is any way the Bucks keep this game within 10-points. Miami is really starting to play some of their best basketball. Each of their last three wins have been by 16+, including a 107-87 win at Atlanta yesterday. The Heat had that game put away early, which allowed the stars to rest up for tonight's game.
The Heat are subject to playing sloppy basketball against bad teams, but the I strongly believe the Bucks have their full attention. Milwaukee is going to be up for this game as well, but it will be hard for them to play with the same intensity having already beating the Heat twice.
Miami is 24-13 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons and fall into a powerful system where home favorites of 3.5-9.5 points who are off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals and are playing a team with a winning record, are a ridiculous 42-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons!
David Banks
Kansas / Kansas State Over
An electric Big 12 rivalry is set to write another chapter on Big Monday when the Kansas Jayhawks (20-5, 12-11-1 ATS) go into Bramlage Coliseum to face the in-state rival Kansas State Wildcats (17-7, 9-11 ATS); tip-off from the Octagon of Doom is set to go live on ESPN at 9:00 ET.
Since falling at Mizzou back on February 4th, the Jayhawks have done exactly what theyve needed to do to ensure the 25ths rematch at Phog Allen Fieldhouse will more than likely be for the Big 12 regular season title. KU showed just how much moxie it possesses after its first conference loss in Columbia by going into Waco and taking it to what was then the 6th ranked Baylor Bears. The game was close through the first half, but Coach Selfs kids threw down the defensive gauntlet in the second half and outscored the Bears 35-24 to pull out the impressive 68-54 road win and cover. Kansas then toyed with OK State back at home in its next game, but the 81-66 final saw them come up short of covering the 17.5-point closing spread. To date, Kansas is 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in its seven played true road games.
This was expected to be a rebuilding year in Manhattan with both Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly having since moved on, and thats exactly what Head Coach Frank Martin has dealt with in 2011-12. The Wildcats will enter tonights home date with their most hated rivals off a bitter loss in Austin where they let a 40-27 halftime lead get away from them in the second half to fall to the Longhorns by a 75-64 final count; the defeat snapped the teams two-game winning streak. K-State has been much better when playing in front of its hometown faithful (10-2, 3-5 ATS) than it has on the road (3-4, 3-4 ATS). Though the team has averaged scoring 72.4 PPG (#80), it shoots a poor 43.9 percent from the field (#152) as well as just 33.3 percent from beyond the arc (#215); those percentages must improve tonight if theyre to give the Jayhawks a run for their money.
The home team has been the side to back in the recent series with it winning and covering each of the L/5 meetings. Kansas coasted to the 67-49 home win and cover in these teams first meeting back in early January to move the chalk to 21-7 ATS in the L/28 overall meetings. Though KU stands a lucrative 15-6 ATS its L/21 Big Monday appearances, its churned out a poor 0-4-1 ATS record off its L/5 SU wins. K-State checks in 5-2 ATS its L/7 Big Monday appearances, but has failed to cover each of their L/6 versus +.600 opponents. These teams have played to the over each of the L/4 times they went at it in the Little Apple.
Accuscore
Orlando Magic (-5) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
A season ago this pick would have been a complete no-brainer. This year the T-Wolves are playing a much better brand of basketball thanks to the improved play of Kevin Love and the emergence of Ricky Rubio. I still like the Magic at home because Minnesota does not have an answer for Dwight Howard. Darko Milic is the starting center for the Wolves and will have a difficult time containing the best center in basketball. In addition, the Magic have played very well as of late, and are a dangerous team at home. AccuScore has the Magic winning this game by nine points.
Golden State Warriors (-3) vs. Phoenix Suns
The last matchup between these two teams is very deceiving. The Suns ended up winning at home 102-91, but the Warriors were missing a key cog in David Lee. Golden State has been playing much improved basketball as of late, with two straight win over Denver and Houston. Phoenix is also playing well, but the home court advantage should be the difference in this game. AccuScore gives the Warriors a slight edge, which I agree with as I like the Dubs playing in front of their devoted fans.
Black Widow
1* Orlando Magic -5
This is a very generous line Monday, and one that I'll gladly take advantage of by backing the Orlando Magic as today's free pick. The Magic remain one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. They are 17-11 on the season, including 5-2 in their last five games overall. The betting public has been afraid to back this team because of the Dwight Howard situation, but that's all the more reason why they continue to show excellent value night in and night out. The Minnesota Timberwolves are overvalued because they have the flashy Ricky Rubio, which has drawn a lot of public attention. While there's no question that the Timberwolves are improved this year, they're still not on the same level at the Magic. Orlando is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Minnesota, winning all six games by 9 points or more. Take the Magic and lay the points.
Larry Ness
Syracuse vs Louisville
Pick: Louisville
No. 2 Syracuse didn’t but UConn away until the second half on Saturday and now travel to Louisville (currently unranked by the AP but tied for 23rd in the latest coaches’ polls) tonight. Louisville has ‘owned’ Syracuse in recent years, winning the last SEVEN meetings. The Cardinals opened the season 12-0 (rose as high as No. 4 in the polls) but then Pitino’s team lost FIVE of its next seven games (2-4 in the Big East) before “righting the ship” with SIX consecutive wins. Saturday’s 77-74 win at West Va saw the Cardinals score 13 of the game's final 16 points! Pitino finally got to see heralded freshman Wayne Blackshear (a 6-5 swingman) in action. The McDonald's All-American suffered a right shoulder injury in October but played his first game of the season (wearing a protective sleeve), finishing with 13 points off the bench (on 5-of-9 shooting) That’s really good news for Louisville. Current swingman Kuric 913.2-4.8) leads the team in scoring this season and is joined up front by the 6-11 Dieng (10.1-9.2) and the 6-6 Behannan (9.4-7.8), who is also a freshman. The backcourt consists of PG Siva (8.5-5.7 APG) plus the two Smiths, Russ (12.3) and Chris (10.5). The Orange will likely remain No. 2 in the new AP poll (out Monday afternoon) behind Kentucky, as they enter this game 25-1 overall, including 12-1 in the Big East (lone loss at Notre Dame). Boeheim’s team has never let the off-the-court turmoil effect them this year, using a six-man rotation to produce a terrific season, to-date. The 6-7 Joseph (14.3-4.8) leads the team in scoring, followed by a trio of guards in Waiter (12.4), Triche (9.7) and Jardine (8.6-5.4). The 6-8 Fair (8.6-5.4) is the fifth starter with the 7-0 Melo (7.7-5.5) coming off the bench. Louisville has been able to “shoot over” the Syracuse zone in recent meetings and may just do so again. Syracuse averages 77.8 PPG while shooting an efficient 48.1 percent from the floor but will face a tough defensive team in the Cards, who allow a modest 62.3 PPG while holding opponents to just 37.2 percent from the floor, 4th-best in the nation. The matchups have worked in Pitino’s favor in recent meetings and I see little changing here. Take the home dog.