Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 14,2011

James Patrick Sports

Lakers vs. Bobcats

The Bobcats have taken a bite out of the World Champions by beating the champs three of four times the past two seasons. The Lakers are (1-10) ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series and just (1-5) ATS in the last (6) meetings in Charlotte. With the Underdog (10-1) ATS in the last (11) meetings, Big Game James Patrick's Monday Night NBA complimentary selection is Charlotte Bobcats.

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

When the Hawks travel to Motown to meet the Detroit Monday night, Atlanta will take the court knowing it is 7-3 ATS in this building when they take on an unrested Pistons squad. Aiding the Hawks case is the fact that the Detroit is coming off a same-season revenger with the Blazers last night with a six-pack of revenge up next against Indiana. In addition, Detroit has a double-revenger with Indiana on deck and they’re just 2-6 ATS before pressing the Pacers. But the bottom line is Atlanta is 7-4-1 ATS in this series when extracting same season revenge and 5-3 SU and ATS this year with same-season revenge. Back the better team here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

BIG AL

San Antonio @ New Jersey
PICK: San Antonio -7.5

The Spurs played their worst offensive game of the season last week in Philly, when they mustered just 71 points in a 77-71 loss that set offensive basketball back a decade. But the Spurs rebounded off that defeat to blow out Washington the very next night, and they scored 72 points in the first half of that contest for their BEST offensive half of the season. San Antonio is now 5-2 on its annual Rodeo Road Trip (so named because the San Antonio Stock and Rodeo show has taken over the AT&T Center, and displaced the Spurs for this three week trek), with two games remaining: At New Jersey tonight, and at Chicago on Thursday. The Spurs will see a familiar face -- Avery Johnson -- on the sideline tonight, but Johnson is not having the success he attained as a player with the Spurs, or as a coach with the Mavericks. The Nets are mired in yet another losing season, at 17-38, and are starting three youngsters in 22-year-old center Brook Lopez, 19-year-old power forward Derrick Favors, and 24-year-old point guard Devin Harris. In contrast, the Spurs are a veteran-laden team, and have rolled to a league-best 45-9 record behind balanced scoring. Tony Parker is shooting 52.8 percent -- tops among NBA point guards -- while Manu Ginobili is leading the team in scoring (17.8 ppg), one of five Spurs in double digits. The Nets are a poor 25-40 ATS off a double-digit loss, while, San Antone is a solid 16-7 ATS off a double-digit win. Lay the points.

Scott Spreitzer

Atlanta @ Detroit
PICK: Atlanta -4.5

Atlanta won this season's first meeting with Detroit by a 94-85 final score, barely missing a 10-point spread. But Detroit pounded the Hawks 103-80 in December, a night when the Hawks virtually took the night off. I expect Atlanta to return the favor on Monday. The Pistons dropped one last night at home to Portland. They're just 4-9 SU when playing in the second of back-to-back nights, scoring an average of just 91 ppg. Atlanta begins their longest road trip of the season tonight and just in time. The Hawks were pounded by 34 points by Philadelphia two games ago, then blew a huge lead in a loss to the Bobcats last time out. But the Hawks are on a 7-2 SU run away from home and getting out of Atlanta may be just what this team needs. The Hawks have had more than their share of problems at The Palace, but they have to be pleased with the performance of Al Horford over the weekend. Horford and company catch Detroit off of four tough games in a row, including last night's five-point loss at home. The Pistons are on a 3-10 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record, while the Hawks are on a decent 6-2 ATS run off a SU loss. We'll back Atlanta on Monday night.

JR O'Donnell

Nuggets / Rockets Under 225.5

These 31-24 Denver Nuggets are a tired ball club and despite Mello who owns the Rockets as of late we are playing Under 222.5 STRONG.... Mello is hanging up 38.0 points over his last five battles with the Houston Rockets. Denver has cashed the last 3 vs the Rockets. These Rockets are averaging 99.5 ppg the last 3 and they are playing some solid D for coach Rick Adelman.

The status of Chancy Billups is a question as he is banged up with a left knee problem. The Power ratings check here @ 218 and that is a full 5 off the Vegas total.The #'s are strong here : Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games as a home favorite & these Rockets go under 5-2 the last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. TOUGH TO STAND IN FRONT THE OVER AS THE DENVER NUGGETS CAN REALLY PUT UP THE POINTS WHEN THEY WANT TO, BUT WE WILL BANK ON THE D FOR THE 25-30 HOUSTON ROCKETS TO STEP UP.. THIS BABY STAYS UNDER 222.5.... 110 -100 FINAL

SPORTS WAGERS

PHOENIX -½ +151 over Washington

You could lay 10 cents or less (depending on where you shop) and play the Coyotes at a pick-em but if the game goes to OT or a shootout it’s pretty much a crapshoot. In that respect, we’d rather take back 51 cents in regulation as oppose to having to lay juice in a 50/50 proposition. The Caps are a team in trouble. They’re not scoring goals and for the first time in a very long time they’re feeling some pressure as they embark on a five-game trip. When they were good they didn’t respond well to pressure and now they’re not so good. The Caps 29-17-10 record looks nice on paper but in reality they’re 29-27 and they opened the year 14-5 so that means they’re 15-22 since. This is only their second trip to Phoenix since 2006. Alex Ovechkin is still a big draw and one has to figure that this is a pretty hot ticket with OV in town and the Coyotes on a roll. They’ve won four straight and have only allowed four goals against over the span. The Coyotes are healthy, they’re confident, they’re winning, they’re getting great goaltending again and they can’t wait to get back on the ice. Aside from being relatively healthy, none of that applies to the Caps. Play: Phoenix -½ +151 (Risking 2 units).

Tom Freese

Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

Minnesota is 13-41 straight up this year. The Timberwolves are 4-10 ATS their last 14 games overall and they are 3-11 ATS their last 14 games as underdogs. Minnesota 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 games as home underdogs. The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games. Portland is 30-24 straight up this year. The Blazers are 18-7-1 ATS their last 26 games as road favorites of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Portland is 4-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last games. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 Monday games and they are 5-2-1 ATS their last 8 games as favorites.

Sam Martin

Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Portland Trail Blazers

The Trailblazers have a chance to sweep this short three-game road trip, and despite playing last night we like them to win rather easily here tonight in Minnesota. Portland already has two double-digit wins over the Timberwolves in this calender year (both wins in January), and had no problems running up the score with 108 and 113 points in those victories. Minnesota is desperate for a win, but with the Clippers coming up next they will likely have their eyes set on that matchup instead of trying to figure out how to stop this Portland team that is extremely tough to beat when they score at least 100 points. Minnesota allows 108 points per game on the season, so we expect an easy win from the road side here tonight! Good luck -

Jim Feist

Denver at Houston
Play: Denver

Nuggets playing in a back to back spot here tonight, having played at Memphis on Sunday. Denver lost to the Grizzlies, 116-108. The Nuggets will have payback on their minds tonight after losing last Monday at home to the Rockets, 108-103. Carmello Anthony torched the Rockets for 50 points in that game and is averaging 42 against the Rockets this season. The Rockets are coming off a pair of losses to Minnesota (108-112) and Dallas (102-106), both at home. The dog and road team appears to be the team to play in this series as dog is 4-0-1 ATS last five and road team is 3-1-1 last five. I look for that to continue here on Monday as the Nuggets getting points will be too good to pass on against a team that has no answer to Carmello Anthony.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
Play: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are reeling as they begin a seven-game road trip tonight in the Motor City. They are off BB home losses, one to Philadelphia by 34 and the other to Charlotte (losing at the buzzer after blowing a 20 pt lead). Meanwhile, the Pistons lost their third straight home game last night falling to Portland 105-100. Atlanta has revenge for a 23-point beatdown they suffered here two months ago. Lay the points

DAVID CHAN

Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche

I bet value where I see it and look for the home side to douse the Flames this evening.

Calgary is coming off its first regulation defeat in a month as it lost 4-2 at Vancouver on Saturday.

This is a "letdown" spot: “It’s been a pretty good run here and now we just get recharged,” coach Brent Sutter said.

Colorado is struggling right now; it's in the midst of a 0-7-1 streak; its lost three in a row to the Flames in front of the home town crowd.

If you didn't know, Peter Forsberg is back in the NHL again and is playing for the Avs:

“Back-to-back games, first time back with a team, first time back in the NHL. It’s not easy, but certainly I thought the effort was there,” coach Joe Sacco said. “We tried to manage his shifts appropriately so that he wasn’t caught out there too long.”

Colorado is beyond desperate and catches a Calgary team thats allowed nine goals over its last two contests; all signs point to a home victory!

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Washington Capitals @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Phoenix Coyotes

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

The Capitals are 29-17-5-5 this year; on Saturday they lost 4-1 to the Kings (their second loss in a row after dropping a 2-0 game to the Sharks on February 8th).

It's important to note that Washington is a brutal 4-11 (-14 units) this season after scoring 1-goal or less in its previous contest.

On the other side of the rink: The Coyotes are 29-19-6-3 this year; on Saturday the Coyotes beat Chicago 3-2 in a shootout; that was this teams fourth consecutive victory.

Phoenix has routinely "played up to the level of its competition" this season, as evidenced by its 15-11 (+5.2 units) record when playing against a team with a winning record.

Bottom line: Coyotes goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov is white hot; he improved to 4-0-0 with a minuscule 0.98 GAA after beating Chicago last time out; and that's bad news for a Capitals team thats scored two or fewer goals in nine of its last 13 games.

Great line value here; consider a second look at the PHOENIX COYOTES in this contest.

EZWINNERS

Syracuse Orange -5

The Mountaineers and the Orange have both struggled with a difficult stretch of ranked teams in their schedule, but I like Syracuse to continue their dominance of West Virginia. The Orange held off the Mountaineers 72-71 in Morgantown in January giving them 16 wins in the last 19 match ups between these two teams. Syracuse will look to avoid their longest home losing streak in 49 years and I expect them to do so as the Orange have won the past eight home match ups by an average of 13.7 points per game. Lay the points.

Tony George

Hawks / Pistons Under 185.5

Atlanta struggling from the floor and they need some offense, but their defense is very solid. Detroit playing better defense, but Rip Hamilton still out and this should be a tight and competitive game tonight. Atlanta has went UNDER 6 out of the last 7 games and though Harrington is back, they will struggle here tonight against a feisty Pistons team looking fro a win. I like the Under here.