Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -4.5
If back-to-back home defeats aren't enough to get Atlanta's blood boiling, recalling a 103-80 loss the last time it visited Detroit will certainly do the trick. Right away, I like the fact that road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, provided they are also coming off an upset loss at home, are an impressive 79-39 ATS since 1996. In addition, plays against home teams that are extremely tired - playing their 5th game in 7 days - and provided they are a poor team winning only 25% to 40% of their games on the season, are 116-66 ATS since 1996, including 5-1 ATS this season. The Pistons are coming off an exhausting defeat to Portland Sunday. The Hawks, meanwhile, have had a day to rest, and they have only played 2 games in the last 6 days. I'll back the fresher, more talented Hawks in this motivated spot. Lay the points.
Ray Monohan
Calgary Flames vs. Colorado Avalanche
Play: Calgary Flames
The Avalanche as a team are 1-9-0 in their last 10 games and have lost seven games in a row. And their the favorites? The Calgary Flames have cooled off a tad but are still 7-1-2 in their last 10 games. An overtime loss to Anaheim on Friday followed by a loss in Vancouver on Saturday has them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in once again. Still, the Flames have only lost 1x in regulation in their last 11 games. A trip to the Colorado should help them get back on track. Calgary has played well on the road of late, going 5-1-2 in eight contests. Calgary has won two straight matchups since Colorado posted a 6-5 victory at the Scotiabank Saddledome on Oct. 28. The Flames skated to a 4-2 triumph in Denver on Nov. 9 before posting a 3-2 win at home on the final day of 2010. The road team has won seven of the last nine matchups in the all-time series. Some trends I like in this one. CAL are 8-3 in their last 11 overall. COL are 6-14 in their last 20 vs. Northwest. Enjoy this 5* Winner on Calgary.
Steve Merril
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
Los Angeles is in a very difficult scheduling spot for this game tonight. The Lakers are playing on a back-to-back set and also their fourth game in five nights. They come off a blowout loss to Orlando on Sunday afternoon, and off such a bad performance, the knee-jerk reaction is to expect the Lakers to bounce back with a strong performance. But that is easier said than done, especially considering the bad scheduling dynamic they are facing. Charlotte is not a place or a team in which the Lakers have had success. The Bobcats have won 7 of the last 10 meetings with the Lakers including four of the last five on their home floor. The last three Lakers’ wins over the Bobcats were all close games with the winning margins coming by just 1, 2, and 9 points. Charlotte is also off a nice comeback road win over the Hawks on Saturday night so they come into this game with the confidence needed when facing a good team like the Lakers. Tonight’s game should follow the series trend as Charlotte takes this game right down to the wire which makes the handful of points they are getting extremely valuable.
Rocketman
Vancouver Canucks vs. St. Louis Blues
Play: Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver is 8-0 this year after playing 3 consecutive home games. Vancouver has won 7 of their last 8 games overall. St Louis has lost 7 of their last 9 games overall. Canucks are 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. Canucks are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Canucks are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Canucks are 23-6 in their last 29 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Canucks are 11-3 in their last 14 vs. a team with a losing record. Canucks are 11-3 in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Canucks are 10-3 in their last 13 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Canucks are 12-4 in their last 16 road games. Canucks are 19-7 in their last 26 games as a favorite. Canucks are 24-9 in their last 33 games following a win. Canucks are 21-8 in their last 29 vs. Western Conference. Canucks are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. Central. Canucks are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Canucks are 35-17 in their last 52 overall. Blues are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Blues are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blues are 7-19 in their last 26 games playing on 1 days rest. Blues are 2-6 in their last 8 home games. Blues are 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Blues are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Blues are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Blues are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. Northwest. Blues are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Blues are 1-7 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blues are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Blues are 0-5 in their last 5 Monday games. Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Canucks are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis. Canucks are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings. Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Vancouver tonight!
Rob Vinciletti
Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Denver Nuggets +2.5
The Nuggets fit a solid dog system here that plays on road dog of 4 or less with no rest off a road dog straight up and against the spread loss vs an opponent off a home dog loss. The Nuggets blew a lead and lost last night in Memphis. Houston dropped a close on to Dallas in their last game. The Rockets are just 8-20 vs winning teams while Denver is 19-10 vs winning teams. The Nuggets also have home loss revenge in this one. Backed with the 80% system and revenge we will back Denver tonight plus the points.
Larry Ness
Lakers @ Bobcats
Pick: Over 185.5
The Lakers took a 4-0 SU and ATS run into Sunday’s game at Orlando but the two-time defending champs had trouble shooting (39 percent for the game, including a woeful 2-of-16 on threes) and rebounding (Magic won that ‘battle,’ 46-34), losing 89-75 after scoring just 34 second-half points. I expect LA to put that poor performance behind them as they continue their seven-game road trip which ends Wednesday night in Cleveland. That game’s a ‘SURE THING,” so a win here means a 6-1 trip, which would be pretty good. The Bobcats haven’t played since Saturday when Stephen Jackson hit the game-winning basket as time expired in an 88-86 win in Atlanta. Charlotte erased ALL of a 22-point deficit, establishing the largest comeback in franchise history. "We didn't shoot the ball very well," Lakers coach Phil Jackson said after Sunday’s loss. "I thought our defense was okay, just didn't shoot the ball very well." However, getting the best of Charlotte has not come easy for LA recently. Charlotte has won FOUR of its last five over the Lakers and is 6-2 against them since the start of the 2006-07 season. After demanding tests at Boston, New York and Orlando on this road trip with the Lakers holding those opponents to an average of just 90.3 PPG, I’m not sure how much the Laker ‘D’ will have left in the tank. Charlotte has clearly responded very positively to head coach Paul Silas, who has brought them to the brink of the Eastern Conference playoff field. Silas has gotten Charlotte to push the pace a bit more lately and I expect both teams to challenge 100 points in this one, so the ‘over’ is the play.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Syracuse -5
Driven by back-to-back defeats and a 3-game home losing streak, expect the Orange to peel out and leave WVU in the dust tonight. Syracuse has had no problem with the Mountaineers in the Carrier Dome. In fact, the Orange have won the past 8 home matchups in this series by an average of 13.7 points. They have won 3 straight and 16 of the last 19 overall. Prior to breaking out against lowly DePaul, the Mountaineers had been held to 66 points or less in 6 straight games. Offense has been the biggest problem, and WVU won't get anything easy against Syracuse's famous matchup zone. Lay the points with the home team.
Steve Janus
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves
Pick: Timberwolves +3
While the Trail Blazers may appear to be the easy play in this game, I actually think there is a lot of value on the Timbewovles +3 at home. Minnesota expects to get Michael Beasley back from injury, and are the more rested team as they had Sunday off, while the Trail Blazers had to play at Detroit. Portland is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. Portland is just 12-17 on the road this season, and only 11-14 ATS. While Portland struggles on the road, Minnesota is at its best at home, and I have a really good feeling they pull out the win tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Hawaii -4
With 8 full days to prepare following a disappointing performance at Idaho, look for the Warriors to avenge their 86-69 New Year's Eve loss at Nevada. Nevada is just 2-11 when playing away from home this season, losing these contests by an average of 7.7 points. Hawaii is 11-4 at home this season, where it is winning by an average of 6.3 points. The Warriors enter this contest at 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. Lastly, Nevada is 0-6 ATS, 15-plus games into the season, versus good defensive teams that are holding their opponents to 42% shooting or worse the last 2 seasons. The Pack are losing by an average score of 77.0 to 65.5 in this situation. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* Atlanta Hawks -4
Reasons why Atlanta will cover:
1) Atlanta is 31-19 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
2) Detroit is 3-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
3) Play on - road favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite, as its 79-39 since 1996!
Jack Jones
Spurs/Nets UNDER 190.5
One of the worst offenses in the league meets one of the best defenses in the league Monday when the New Jersey Nets host the San Antonio Spurs. New Jersey is scoring a woeful 92.8 PPG this season, while the Spurs give up 96.3 PPG. The Nets are playing solid defense this year, though, as they allow just 96.8 PPG at home. Taking a look at recent meetings in this series, it's easy to see that there is some value with this UNDER tonight.
The UNDER is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings. In fact, the Spurs and Nets have combined to score 190 or less points in 21 of those 23 meetings. The UNDER is 9-2 in Spurs last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nets are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
Matt Rivers
Charlotte +5
There is no doubt that the Los Angeles Lakers are a better team than the Bobcats but it's a really difficult spot for the defending champions to be in.
Kobe and the gang lost yesterday in Orlando and are on the dreaded back-to-back and fourth game in five nights. It's almost a death sentence for the Lakers today no matter how good they are and no matter how mediocre the boys from Charlotte are.
Phil Jackson's squad beat the Celtics to begin this road trip and then downed the Knicks the next night at Madison Square Garden. After a day off they traveled down south yesterday in the loss at Orlando and now are once again on the road in another city against the Bobcats. No matter how great these Lakers can be it just shouldn't matter. Charlotte may be fairly mediocre and underachieving this season but they still do have some players in Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace and the blossoming DJ Augustin and everybody pretty much gets up for the champs on their assigned night, even if things have not been going all that well.
The Bobbies just pulled off the semi shocking upset in Hotlanta on Saturday night against the quality Hawks and should be feeling at least a little better about themselves in this spot. Now the energy and enthusiasm should remain pretty high and upbeat with the big bad Lakers limping into town.
Lamar Odom is a bit banged up and no matter how much superior the visitors are in terms of talent I believe it gets neutralized due to the situation and in the end the home Bobcats are able to take care of business.
Frank Jordan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -4
The Lakers are coming off an awful loss at Orlando where they were limited to just 34 points in the second half. That loss snapped a four game winning streak on the road trip. They can't loose focus as they head up to Charlotte and take on the Jordan run Bobcats. Charlotte is coming off a big win over Atlanta with a buzzer beater by Stephen Jackson to win it 88-86. Charlotte needed that win having lost four of the previous five games. Look for the winning feeling to go back to the Lakers as they take care of business in Charlotte. Play LA Lakers
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks -4
The Atlanta Hawks will certainly be hungry tonight after blowing a huge lead to the Charlotte Bobcats last time out, eventually losing on a buzzer-beater by Stephen Jackson. Not only will they be hungry, they will also be well-rested which will allow them to give max effort tonight. The Hawks will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Detroit Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. No question fatigue will be a factor for the Pistons tonight, and we fully expect Atlanta to pull away in the second half because of it. Detroit is 43-72 ATS (-36.2 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days since 1996. The Pistons are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Atlanta has been great on the road all season, going 16-11 away from home. Take the Hawks and lay the points.
Karl Garrett
Atlanta at DETROIT (+3')
Free play for Monday, and it is hard to put any stock in the Atlanta Hawks right now, as Atlanta embarks on a 7-game road trip with ugly back-to-back home losses their last 2 times on court.
G-Man feels it will be a struggle for this team to rally for the road win tonight in Detroit against a Pistons team that is also off of back-to-back home losses.
This has been a home-oriented series, as the home team has won the last 7 series meetings, and the last time the Hawks paid a visit to the Motor City they were handled in a 103-80 final that saw them give up in the 4th quarter of that game, getting outscored 39-19 in that ugly loss.
Take the points with the Pistons as the Hawks funk conitnues in this road game tonight.
1♦ DETROIT
Craig Davis
Atlanta at DETROIT (+4')
Today's free play is on the Pistons to cover the five points they are getting at home vs. Atlanta.
Yes, I realize the Hawks got Al Horford back in the fold, returning from injury two days ago. But I think his return will take its toll on this offense for a while. It happens all the time.
When players get injured for an extended period of time or a team makes a trade, brining in another major player, it takes a while for the five players on the floor to get used to each other. Timing, consistency, the knowledge of knowing where each other is going to be.
That all takes time... and although Horford had been a big piece to the puzzle for the Hawks this year, Atlanta has gotten used to playing without him for the last month.
That's not easy to overcome. Atlanta is opening a tough seven-game road trip tonight at Detroit... a place they have just one win in their last 11 tries. Yes, you heard me right. Atlanta struggles mightily at the Palace.
The Hawks have dropped consecutive games against Charlotte and Philadelphia at home, so maybe they need to get on the road. They just probably wish it was any other venue BUT Detroit.
The Pistons dropped a tough five-point loss vs. Portland yesterday and must now turn around to face an angry Hawks bunch looking to get back on the winning track. Detroit was tied at 100 with Portland with a minute to go, but two costly turnovers in the final seconds did them in and they wouldn't score again.
Detroit is getting tremendous play from its bench recently, including Sunday's performance in which the reserves outscored the starters 57-43. If they can do that again, they could pull off the SU upset. Take the Pistons and the points as your free play of the day.
3♦ DETROIT
Stephen Nover
Atlanta at DETROIT (+4')
I've been on fire with my free NBA selections, winning 12 of the last 16 heading into today's play on the home underdog Detroit Pistons against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks tuned out Mike Woodson last season resulting in Woodson getting fired.
The Hawks haven't been playing up to their talent level either under Larry Drew, who replaced Woodson, having lost consecutive home games to Philadelphia and Charlotte.
Now the Hawks travel to Detroit, where they have failed to cover in four of their last five visits.
Atlanta does have intriguing talent. But it's often a mistake to get sucked in by that. The Hawks are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times they've been chalk.
The Hawks have no inside presence. Joe Johnson gets too much respect. He's one of the most overrated players in the league. Josh Smith has a massive ego and Jamal Crawford is streaky and currently down in the dumps. There is no leadership.
The result is the Hawks very well could be the most unreliable team in the league.
Detroit is 8-6 ATS the past 14 times it has been an underdog. The Pistons have covered in 13 of their last 18 games versus Eastern Conference competition.
The Pistons have been getting better bench support lately. They've held five of their last seven opponents to under triple digits.
The Pistons also have held the Hawks to an average of 87 points in two games this season.
2♦ DETROIT
Derek Mancini
LA Clippers at MILWAUKEE (-6)
Thanks to Blake Griffin, Clippers may be the most overvalued team in the NBA. Bettors assume that because they've got a human highlight reel as a power forward, that they can hang in situations where they're clearly overmatched... Like at Toronto last night (my Free Play winner Sunday).
The public is happy to get this many points, but buyer beware, as once again I'm here to tell you that the oddsmakers aren't stupid. They wouldn't install the Bucks as such a relatively large favorite in this spot, unless they were certain Milwaukee was going to bring their "A" game. Yes, I'm well aware that the Bucks have lost 7 of their L8 SU (3-5 ATS). And yes, I'm well aware of their injury situation. But that only streghtens my point: What does it tell us that they're 6 point favorites in this spot in spite of all this?!
Looking at the match ups, as long as the Bogut/Jennings/Salmons trio is on the court, the Bucks will do well against a struggling Clippers defense that's allowing 106 ppg over their L5 games. Same cannot be said for the Clips, who will be facing a solid Bucks defense that is surrendering only 91 ppg over the same 5 game span (and allowing just 90 ppg at home this season). That includes one match up in particular that I like, and that's the Ilyasova/Griffin match up. He'll get help from Bogut I'm sure, but the 6'10 forward is a decent enough defender to cause some problems for Griffin, and that's key to slowing down LA's slightly average offense. Bottom line, lay the points as Milwaukee protect it's house Monday.
2♦ MILWAUKEE