SPORTS ADVISORS
UConn (14-11, 9-14 ATS) at (4) Villanova (22-2, 16-7 ATS)
The struggling Huskies make the trek to The Pavilion at Villanova for a key Big East matchup with the Wildcats.
Connecticut has lost five of its last six games (both SU and ATS), including Saturday’s humiliating 60-48 home loss to Cincinnati as a seven-point favorite. The Huskies, who are on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and in need of a statement victory, have struggled on the road this year, going 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS. They’ve been outscored by more than seven points per game (74.3-67.2) when they take to the highway.
Villanova has won 13 of its last 14 (10-4 ATS) overall, including a 92-81 home win over Providence on Saturday, though it came up short as a 14-point favorite. Four of the Wildcats five starters scoring in double digits on Saturday, as Villanova continued its high-scoring ways. Jay Wright’s club averages 87.6 ppg and shoots 48.3 percent from the floor at home, where they are a perfect 11-0 (7-3 ATS) this season.
UConn won the only matchup between these two last season, scoring an 89-83 home win but coming up short as a 9½-point favorite. The Wildcats have cashed in four of the last five series clashes and six of the last nine dating back to 2003, including four straight at home. The host is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the chalk has cashed in five of the last seven.
The Huskies are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 on Monday and 2-6 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Villanova has failed to cover in three of its last four games but is still on several positive ATS streaks, including 15-6 overall, 9-4 in Big East action, 8-3 at home, 6-0 on Monday and 13-6 after a straight-up win.
For UConn, the under is on runs of 7-3 overall, 10-4 on the road, 6-2 in conference play and 7-2 after a non-cover. On the opposite side, the Wildcats have topped the total in 14 of 18 overall, eight of 11 Big East games, 12 of 16 after a straight-up win and five of seven Monday contests. In this series, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings but the under is 4-1 in the last five played at Villanova.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
(1) Kansas (24-1, 10-11-1 ATS) at Texas A&M (18-6, 12-8 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks head to Reed Arena in College Station, Texas, in search of their 11th straight win when they take on Texas A&M in a Big 12 matchup.
Kansas is coming in off Saturday’s 73-59 home blowout of Iowa State, but it fell short as a 21-point favorite to drop to 1-4 ATS in its last five games. The Jayhawks had four of five starters score in double figures against the Cyclones, with Marcus Morris and Cole Aldrich recording double-doubles. Bill Self’s squad is 9-1 away from home this season (4-5-1 ATS), holding the opposition to 66.9 ppg and 38.3 percent shooting.
The Aggies have rattled off four consecutive SU and ATS wins, including Saturday’s thrilling 67-65 road win at Texas Tech on Saturday, cashing as a one-point underdog thanks to the play of Bryan Davis (13 points, 16 rebounds). Texas A&M sits at a perfect 13-0 at home this season but has cashed in just five of nine lined contests. Going back to last year, the Aggies have won 16 in a row at Reed Arena (8-4 ATS), including 8-0 when hosting Big 12 foes (6-2 ATS).
Kansas has won three straight in this rivalry (2-1 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (6-4 ATS) dating back to the 2001 season. In last season’s lone clash, the Jayhawks scored a 73-53 win as 10½-point home favorite. The road team has gotten the cash in five of the last six meetings, with Kansas covering in four of the last five at College Station.
Despite failing to cover in four of their last five (all in conference), the Jayhawks are still on ATS runs of 17-5 on Monday and 9-3-1 after a non-cover. Texas A&M is on positive ATS streaks of 7-3 after a spread-cover, 4-0 in Big 12 action and 5-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Kansas has stayed “under” the posted number in five of seven overall, 36 of 53 after a straight-up win, seven of 10 on the road and five of six on Monday. The Aggies have stayed below the number in five of seven at home, but gone “over” the number in four of five overall and five of six at home against teams with winning road records. In this series, the “over” has been the play in three of the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
CAPPERS ACCESS
Villanova
Texas A&M
Mighty Quinn
Mighty missed with Illinois (-1-1/2).
Today it's Maryland. The deficit is 330 sirignanos.
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DUNKEL
Connecticut at Villanova
The Huskies look to build on their 8-3 record in their last 11 games as an underdog from 7 to 12 1/2 points. Connecticut is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+9 1/2)
Game 701-702: Connecticut at Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 66.062; Villanova 72.134
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 6
Vegas Line: Villanova by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+9 1/2)
Game 703-704: Youngstown State at WI-Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 47.709; WI-Milwaukee 56.178
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 10
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+10)
Game 705-706: UL-Monroe at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 46.735; Arkansas State 53.533
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 7
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 8
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+8)
Game 707-708: Hawaii at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 49.134; New Mexico State 63.924
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 15
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-11 1/2)
Game 709-710: Kansas at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 77.727; Texas A&M 74.343
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+8)
Game 711-712: Western Carolina at NC-Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 52.652; NC-Greensboro 49.365
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 7
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+7)
Game 713-714: Fairfield at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 55.500; Manhattan 52.455
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 3
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 1
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-1)
Game 715-716: Rider at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 51.277; St. Peter's 52.974
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 4
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+4)
Game 717-718: Jacksonville State at Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 47.950; Austin Peay 58.072
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 10
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (-8 1/2)
Game 719-720: Tennessee Tech at Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 46.205; Tennessee State 49.498
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 3
Vegas Line: Tennessee State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (-1 1/2)
Game 721-722: South Carolina State at Morgan State
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina State 46.749; Morgan State 57.871
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 723-724: Jackson State at Texas Southern
Dunkel Ratings: Jackson State 44.207; Texas Southern 46.518
Dunkel Line: Texas Southern by 2 1/2
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:
Game 725-726: Virginia at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 67.674; Maryland 78.249
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 9
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-9)
Jack Clayton
Game: Kansas at Texas A&M
Date/Time: 2/15/2010 9:00PM EST
Pick: Texas A&M
Triple Threat Sports
U Conn (+) over Villanova
Texas A&M (+) over Kansas
Fairfield (-) over Manhattan.
Bobby Maxwell
I improved to 50-20-1 with my last 71 FREE selections on Sunday when UCLA got inside the number at USC in their Pac-10 showdown from Los Angeles. Tonight's free winner comes from Villanova as I lay the chalk with the Wildcats as they host UConn.
Connecticut has been struggling mightily the last few weeks, losing five of its last six games and getting crushed on Saturday at home against a mediocre Cincinnati team.
The Huskies fell 60-48 on Saturday as seven-point favorites. They are just 1-8 on the road this season and they average losing by seven points on the highway. Not good numbers going into Villanova, a place that nobody has been able to leave a winner this year.
Villanova is 11-0 at home (7-3 ATS) and they shoot 48.3 percent from the floor at home and average 87.6 points per game when they are in front of the home fans.
The Wildcats beat Providence on Saturday 92-81 but came up short as a 14-point home favorite. They have a damn good starting five, led by senior Scottie Reynolds. Four of their starters scored in double-digits on Saturday with Reynolds leading the way with 22 points. He is the key to Villanova’s success, willing to do whatever it takes to get the win each night.
Villanova has been a good bet this season, on positive ATS runs of 15-6 overall, 9-4 in Big East play, 8-3 at home and 6-0 on Mondays. On the other side, UConn has not been such a good bet, on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 on Mondays and 2-6 after a non-cover.
It’s a lot of points to lay, but look for Villanova to win this one by 15 at least. Play the Wildcats.
4♦ VILLANOVA
Karl Garrett
Friday I gave you a 20 Dime winner on Fairfield, and tonight I will give you a comp play winner on the Stags.
Fairfield is now 17-8 for the year, and they have been particularly solid on the road this season, covering in 8 of their last 10 lined road contests.
The Stags have also won 3 in a row, and 5 of the last 6 series meetings, while the road team in this series is 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times these schools have met.
The Jaspers are just 4-6 against the spread at home this year, and they come in to this game having lost 11 of their last 14 games overall.
Have to stick with Fairfield to come up with another road win and cover.
Go with the Stags.
3♦ FAIRFIELD