BIG AL
(703) YOUNGSTOWN STATE
(704) WISC MILWAUKEE
Take "(703) YOUNGSTOWN STATE"
At 8 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins plus the points over Wisconsin-Milwaukee. At first glance, this play might not make a lot of sense. After all, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming home after three road games, including an upset of Detroit Mercy on Saturday, as a 5-point underdog. Youngstown, on the other hand, is mired in a miserable season, with just eight wins in its 25 games, and has dropped five straight, and nine of its last 10 (including a 10-point home loss to these Panthers back on January 22). However, consider that Home teams, not favored by 13 or more points, are just 25% ATS over the past 20 seasons vs. .333 (or worse) conference foes with same-season revenge, if our home team is off an upset win, and our revenging road team is off a straight-up loss. Don't be surprised if the Penguins come into Milwaukee and shock the Panther tonight. Take the points. Good luck as always...Big Al McMordie.
Dave Cokin
(717) JACKSONVILLE STATE
(718) AUSTIN PEAY
Take (717) JACKSONVILLE STATE
Tom Freese
Virginia at Maryland
Play: Maryland
Virginia 14-7 overall and 5-3 in Conference Play. Guard Slyven Landesberg scores 18 points a game. Forward Mike Scott scores 13.4 points and 7.7 rebounds a game. Guard Sammy Zeglinski scores 9.7 points a game. No other player scores more than 6.5 points a game. The Cavaliers just 69 points a game. Virginia is 2-9 ATS their last 11 Monday games and they are 13-32 ATS in road games in the Month of February. Maryland is 16-7 overall and 6-3 in Conference play. The Terps have won 6 of their last 8 games. Greivis Vasquez scores 18 points 6 assists and 4.7 rebounds a game while shooting 40% from behind the arc. Forward Landon Milbourne scores 13.9 points a game. Guard Sean Mosley scores 11.2 points a game while shooting 42% from behind the arc. Guard Eric Hayes scores 11 points a game. Maryland scores 79 points a game. The Terrapins are 10-2 ATS their last 12 Conference games and the home team in this series 7-3 ATS. PLAY ON MARYLAND -
Sam Martin
Hawaii at New Mexico State
Although Hawaii hasn’t won a road game this season (0-6), we’re going to back the Warriors on Monday night as we think they’ll stay close to New Mexico State here. Hawaii isn’t a good team, and they’re on a six-game losing skid, but they haven’t shown signs of giving up yet. In fact, if the opening line of 12 points holds, we note that the Warriors haven’t lost by more than 10 points in five of their last six games, including their last contest (lost 66-60 getting 15 points at LA Tech). New Mexico State had a wakeup call in a 19-point loss at Fresno State on Thursday and may be a bit flat here.
Play on: Hawaii
EZWINNERS
New Mexico State Aggies -11.5
Hawaii is having a very bad year posting a 9-15 record this season. It gets even worse for Hawaii away from the island as the Warriors are 0-6 on the road this season. Hawaii might run out of gas in this game as the Warriors are coming off of a close loss at Louisiana Tech on Saturday in which three of their starter played 37 or more minutes. New Mexico State is an athletic team that likes to play fast on both ends of the court, and the Aggies have climbed into contention for the WAC regular season title despite dropping their last game at Fresno state. I look for the Aggies to bounce back strong here. The Warriors are 3-7 against the spread in the last ten meetings between these two teams and New Mexico State is 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 WAC games. Lay the points.
Matt Fargo
Fairfield at Manhattan College
Prediction: Fairfield
With Siena having the locked up the MAAC regular season title, the rest of the conference is now concerned about seedings and playing the Saints and the absolute last possible time in the conference tournament. One of those teams vying for second place which would mean not facing Siena until the championship game is Fairfield. The Stags enter this game a half-game behind Iona for second place in the conference so they need this win to keep pace with two games remaining following this contest. One of those games is at home against Iona and then the Stags close out the season with a home game against disappointing Niagara. The schedule sets up very well for Fairfield to lock down that number two seed which comes with a bye on top of not seeing the number one seed until championship Monday. The Stags have actually been the most impressive against Siena this season as of its 15 conference wins, only five have comes by single digits and two of those were against Fairfield. The Stags lost by eight points at home and then by only two points at Siena on February 8th. The Stags are 7-6 on the road this season including an overtime win at Rider on Friday. Manhattan has had another disappointing season as it is just 9-16 overall including 4-11 in the conference. The Jaspers have been involved in some tight losses this season so the record definitely could be better but the fact that they are only 2-5 at home in the conference is reason to keep fading. Teams that cannot win close games are not suddenly going to start doing so and this one does have the look of being that close to begin with. Overall Manhattan is 5-6 at home on the season with three of those wins coming against N.J.I.T., Fordham and Marist and those three teams are ranked 337th, 292nd and 329th respectively in the power rankings and 333rd, 296th and 334th respectively in the latest RPI. It is no wonder the Japers are 208th and 221st in power rankings and RPI respectively. Manhattan lost to the Stags in Fairfield by just three points in the first meeting this season and while that means revenge is in play, it will not be a big factor here for a struggling team that has no home court advantage to speak of. This Fairfield team knows exactly about adversity as it won 17 games last season battling injuries and suspensions to key players and this season is no different. Forwards Warren Edney and Greg Nero, who came in as projected starters, have not played a single game this season while another forward, Yorel Hawkins, was lost for the season three games ago with a knee injury. Last season?s experiences in almost similar fashion are playing dividends this year as proven by the strong season the Stags are having. Fairfield is on a 23-10 ATS run in its road games including an 8-3 ATS mark in road games this season. The Stags have covered four straight as a road chalk while the Jaspers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win and they are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games coming off a game played on the road. 3* Fairfield Stags
Hollywood Sports
Youngstown State at Wis-Milwaukee
Prediction: Youngstown State
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (14-12) upset Detroit on the road Saturday, 71-60, as a 5-point underdog. Now they return home in a letdown situation as a double-digit favorite against the lower-tiered Youngstown State in Horizon League play. The Panthers may not have the offense to win by more than ten points as they shoot only 42.4% from the field and this metric actually lowers to just 38.7% when playing on their home court. Youngstown State (8-17) enters this game after losing 77-75 to Valparaiso as a 1-point favorite. But the Penguins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog in the 7-12.5 point range. Conversely, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range. Expect a lower-scoring contest where the Panthers stay within single-digits. Take the points with Youngstown State.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Kansas at Texas A&M
Anytime you have an eight-point home underdog that is 13-0 straight up on its own floor, that looks like a pretty attractive wager, no? Furthermore, the Aggies have won and covered their last four games and have triple revenge for losses occuring over the previous two seasons. Over the last two seasons, A&M is 16-7 ATS as an underdog and 25-10 ATS off multiple conference wins. Take the points.
Play on: Texas A&M
LT Profits
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State
The Louisiana-Monroe Indians are on a nice Under run right now, and we do not expect them to score enough points tonight either to prevent another Under when they visit the other Indians at Arkansas State.
The Under is now 9-2 in the last 11 Louisiana-Monroe games, and one of the Overs saw just 129 points scored, which would still be good enough for another Under here. The other Over saw 139 points when Monroe scored 67 points at home vs. Louisiana Lafayette, but the Monroe offense is worse than usual on the road, where they average only 63.5 points per game on just 41.5 percent shooting.
Now the Arkansas State Indians average 68.6 points per game at home, but those games are still averaging 135.6 points combined. That may be just slightly less than this posted total, but they figure to allow less than the 67.0 points they usually do at home tonight, considering the offensive road woes of Monroe. The two head-to-head meetings between these clubs last season produced scores of 64-63 and 65-62, and we would net be surprised by a similar result tonight.
Finally, neither offense grades out well according to the Pomeroy Ratings, as Louisiana Monroe ranks 272 out of 347 Division I teams in offensive efficiency, with an adjusted rating of only .938 points per possession. Arkansas is a little better but not significantly so, ranking 217 with an adjusted offensive PPP of .977.
Look for the third straight Under in this head-to-head series tonight.
Pick: Louisiana-Monroe/Arkansas State Under 136.5
Larry Ness
Austin Peay -8.5 vs Jacksonville St.
Every school in the OVC is chasing Murray St. The Racers have won 15 straight games (24-3), tying them with Butler for the nation's longest active winning streak. Murray St is also 15-0 in the OVC, one of five schools still unbeaten in conference play. Meanwhile, Austin Peay opens the new week at 14-12 (8-6) and Jacksonville St at 11-14 (7-8). The Governors are led by senior guard Channels (16.2-4.3-3.2) plus two sophomores, 6-6 swingman Campbell (15.6-5.6) and 6-8 center Fraley (9.3-7.5). Jacksonville St is basically a perimeter-based team, which wasn't helped when Nebraska transfer Strowbridge (12.5) left the team after 12 games. That leaves swingman Marshall (18.3-5.4) plus guards Murphy (14.6-7.0) and Bynum (10.8-3.5) as double-digit scorers. These schools met Jan 23 at Jacksonville with Austin Peay winning 66-64 in OT. The Gamecocks are playing with revenge but they are just 1-8 SU on the road this year, winning only at Tenn-Martin, which is 4-21 overall, including just 1-14 in the OVC. Austin Peay is 9-2 SU at home and while the Governors have struggled ATS, this is a team that they will have little trouble with. Lay the points.
John Ryan
Rider vs. Saint Peter's
Play: Rider +4
3* graded play on Rider as they take on St. Peters set to tip at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Rider will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. St. Peters has not played well against similar teams built like Rider. For starters they are 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997; 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread since 1997; fine tuning it a step more they are just 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1997. The pace of play will most certainly favor Rider. the model projections see St. Peters scoring between 61 and 66 points. Note that Rider 15-7 against the MONEY LINE (+11.8 Units) in road games when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. Take Rider.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Maryland -8.5
In 2010, the Terps are 4-0 SU & ATS at home against the ACC, with all of those wins coming by at least 9 points. Off a disappointing performance at Duke, expect Maryland to bounce back strong tonight to stay in the ACC title hunt. The home team has dominated this series from a betting perspective at 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Plus, the Terrapins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. the ACC, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Maryland is 8-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 of less turnovers per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons and 11-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. In other words, Maryland has had great success against teams that aren't very physical and in their grill on defense. We'll take the Terps for 1 unit in this highly motivated spot.
Tony George
Virginia vs. Maryland
Play: Virginia +9
Trying to figure out this line. Virginia has covered 5 out of the last 6 games in this series and really looking at all the stats and common teams, Virginias’ resume looks more impressive than Maryland’s. This time of year oddsmakers give a ton of points for a strong homecourt, but Virginia beat North Carolina by 15 on the road, beat some common opponents by a better margin, I find the stats almost even here with the Cavs having a better defense in this matchup as well. The Cavs coming off back to back losses to Wake Forest in OT and VT on the road on Saturday in a tight one, I like them to hang tough here and cover the number.
Teddy Covers
Virginia @ Maryland
PICK: Under 134.5
When head coach Tony Bennett took over for his dad at Washington State, the Cougars were a consistent PAC-10 bottom feeder, coming off 12 and 11 win seasons. It didn’t take long for a dramatic transformation. In Bennett’s first year on the job, the Cougars won 26 games, finishing second in the PAC-10 and reaching the second round of the NCAA tournament. Remember, the team was projected to finish in last place that year! Bennett followed that up with another 26 win season, leading his team to the Sweet 16 in the process. Bennett’s turnaround at Wassou was immediate, and it was dramatic.
When Bennett arrived in Charlottesville prior to this season, expectations were just as low as they were when he arrived in Pullman. Virginia won 10 games last year. The returning talent on hand was mediocre at best; and Bennett didn’t seem to have any impact newcomers to create another dramatic turnaround. Well, once again, this head coach is creating magic. The Cavaliers have already exceeded their win total from last year. They are 5-4 in ACC play and 14-8 overall, very much in ‘bubble’ territory for the Big Dance. And yes, they were projected to compete with NC State for last place in the ACC this year.
How has Bennett transformed his teams so quickly? More than anything else, it’s defensive intensity. Man-to-man defense – tough, sticky, man-to-man defense. In their last five games, Virginia has held their opponents to 40 percent shooting, and less than nine assists per game. No surprise, then, that the Cavs are 4-1 to the Under during that span; the lone Over coming in an overtime affair.
Maryland plays some very sticky defense themselves, holding foes to less than 38 percent shooting from the floor for the entire year; less than 37 percent shooting from the floor here at the Comcast Center. In this make-up game for a snow-out last week, with both teams playing on short rest, look for the defenses to rule in a slow paced contest. 2* Take the Under.
James Patrick Sports
Virginia vs.Maryland
The Turtles were humbled at Cameron Indoor by Duke over the weekend and when Maryland takes the court off an ATS loss they have gone Over the Total at a (6-0-1) ATS rate. The Cavaliers are Over the Total at a (4-1) ATS mark in Monday action. Big Game James Patrick's Monday Night College Basketball selection in ACC action is Virginia - Maryland Over the Total.