Matt Rivers
Connecticut +9.5
Jim Calhoun's Connecticut Huskies are rapidly becoming a disgrace of a team that may have already quit on the season but this is still not a terrible spot to back them in a small play.
It is impossible to invest the mortgage on this underachieving of a team that could conceivably get blasted by 40 if they continue to play as they did last game against the Bearcats and Villanova continues to play as they have but all in all the number is enough in this spot.
Jay Wright's Wildcats are the best team in the Big East and are led by a superstar point guard in Scottie Reynolds. Villanova is extremely deep and athletic and have a shot at winning the National Championship when all is said and done. But with Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia upcoming on the schedule and after seeing how the Huskies at least competed and covered two games ago in Syracuse I can see this thing being a little tighter than the experts believe.
There are no two ways around it; UCONN was pathetic in that last game at home against Cincinnati. There are two ways this team can go; completely quit and embarrass themselves to the max or come out fighting and prove that Calhoun is a top notch coach. I do think the latter will take place, as Dyson, Edwards, Walker, Robinson and the Huskies still possess a lot of talent and some Heart, I think.
The Huskies have lost five of six and thinking it won't be six of seven is a little asinine but they do still play some defense and should slow down the Wildcats from their usual ferocious pace keeping this game a little different than what Villanova has become accustomed to of late. I'm not saying that points will be at a premium or this will be a Heat/Knicks type of a battle from the early 90's but we're not going to see 'Nova nearing 100 points and to get about 10 back is worth a stab.
Jeff Benton
Hope you took advantage of Sunday’s easy outright 8♦ free-play winner on St. John’s. I’m now on runs of 20-10, 10-4 and 7-3 with plays that I’m giving away! For Monday’s freebie, I’ll stay on the college hardwood and take Texas A&M plus the points against Kansas.
I expect a very spirited effort from the Aggies, which is always the case when Kansas pays a visit to a conference opponent, particularly for a nationally televised game. But this play is based on more than just the emotional edge Texas A&M will have tonight; the fact is the Aggies are playing really good basketball, having won six of their last seven games, including the last four in a row (SU and ATS). That includes Saturday’s gritty 67-65 win on the road at Texas Tech (as a one-point underdog) and, a week prior to that, a 78-71 win over No. 20 Baylor (as a two-point home favorite).
The Aggies are riding a 16-game home-court winning streak (13-0 this season), and during this streak they’re 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in Big 12 home games. They’ve also been a tremendous underdog recently, cashing in 19 of 26 as a pup overall, four of five as a home underdog and six of seven when catching a big price at home (7 to 12½ points).
Obviously, this won’t be an easy test for A&M tonight, as Kansas comes in riding a 10-game winning streak (and the top-ranked Jayhawks are 24-1 overall). But it’s not like Kansas has been annihilating opponents lately. In fact, of its last five wins, two have been in overtime (on the road at Kansas State and Colorado) and the other three were by 11, 12 and 11 points). Really, the only impressive victory in the last five was last Monday’s 80-68 rout of Texas as a 1½-point road favorite. In the other four games, Kansas failed to bring home the cash.
Texas A&M may not be able to stretch that home-court winning streak to 17 in a row, but it definitely has the ability to be competitive tonight and to keep this one inside the number. Take the points.
5♦ TEXAS A&M
Stephen Nover
Taking a look at the nationally televised Big 12 showdown on Big Monday between top-ranked Kansas and Texas A&M tonight.
Kansas is sailing to the Big 12 Conference title with a bulging three-game lead. The Jayhawks probably already have locked up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, too, especially with Syracuse getting upset on Sunday.
So Texas A&M figures to be the more motivated team, especially playing at home on national TV (ESPN).
The Aggies are riding a 16-game home winning streak, including going 13-0 this season.
Texas A&M is playing its best ball having won a season-best five straight games and seven out of their last eight. The Aggies have gone up in the RPI rankings during the last three weeks posting victories against Missouri and Oklahoma.
The Jayhawks are the No. 1 team in the land, but pointspread-wise they are just 10-11-1. They are overpriced again in this spot.
2♦ TEXAS A&M
Scott Delaney
Western Carolina at UNC Greensboro
I know there is always dangerous territory in laying points on the road with a mid-major, but in this game, this is a cheap price to pay with 18-8 Western Carolina against 5-19 UNC Greensboro.
Knowing the Catamounts are struggling on a three-game slide, I think they're in the right spot to end the slide, but dominating a Spartans team that has won just three home games this season, and is also suffering with a three-game skid right now.
Even worse, Greensboro has won a total of three games since the first week of December - home or away.
Western Carolina has won three straight meetings with UNC Greensboro, including a 10-point win at home last month.
The Catamounts are going to be upset and geared for a blowout win, as they led by as many as eight points in the first half against Davidson on Saturday, but then shot just 34.4 percent from the floor and allowed the Wildcats to claw their way back and steal the win.
The straight-up winner is on an 8-1 ATS run in the Catamounts' last nine outings, and there's no doubt in my mind the road team earns the rout here.
4♦ WESTERN CAROLINA
Craig Davis
Today's free winner is on Fairfield. I gave you the Stags as a free play winner on Friday and they cashed. Tonight I think they catch a Manhattan team at just the right time. The Jaspers are likely coming in a little over-confident, having just gone to Iona and getting the outright upset win. Play that game again today and Iona likely wins... Manhattan just happened to catch them at the right time. Tonight they won't be so fortunate. Fairfield is just a half-game behind Iona for second place in the MAAC conference, and they know a win tonight coupled with a home win over Iona next week would give them sole possession of second place in the conference and a first-round bye in the league tourney. Normally I'd say this is a "look ahead" spot, but there's simply too much on the line tonight. Plus, Fairfield has a non-conference game with Vermont later this week that might be the "look ahead" game to profit from. The Stags are simply too talented for the Jaspers, both in the starting 5 and the bench, and should win this thing going away. Take Fairfield at a near pick 'em as your free play of the day.
2♦ FAIRFIELD
Chuck O'Brien
UConn at VILLANOVA -9'
Take Villanova and lay the points against UConn in Big East hoops action Monday as I look to add to a 7-4 run with comp plays.
UConn was in the Final Four less than a year ago but if the Big Dance started today, the Huskies (14-11) wouldn’t be in it. They’ve lost five of their last six games both SU and ATS, and the only win was a less-than-impressive seven-point victory over DePaul, which is dead-last in the 16-team Big East at 1-11. On Saturday, despite the return of head coach Jim Calhoun, UConn laid a big old egg against Cincinnati, losing 60-48 as a seven-point home favorite. It was by far the Huskies’ lowest point total all season.
UConn has yet to win a road game this year (0-6 in true road contests), and its defense really struggles away from home in allowing 74.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Villanova is a perfect 11-0 at home, putting up 87.6 ppg on its own floor and outscoring visitors by an average of 18.6 ppg. The Wildcats have thrived in these marquee Big Monday games, too, cashing in six in a row. On the other hand, UConn is 1-4 ATS in its last five Monday contests. Also, ‘Nova is on ATS runs of 16-7 for the season and 8-3 at home going back to last year, and the home team has covered in seven of the last nine in this rivalry.
4♦ VILLANOVA
Chris Jordan
UL Monroe at ARKANSAS STATE -7'
Louisiana Monroe might be looking for its third-straight win tonight, but mark my words, it has no shot against the Red Wolves, who lead the Sun Belt Conference’s West Division with a 9-4 conference mark.
And after playing its last three contests away from home, Arkansas State will welcome the opportunity to get back on track on its own court.
Monroe has lost seven-straight to Arkansas State in Jonesboro, while the Red Wolves come into this one on ATS runs of 7-0 as a favorite, 5-0 at home, 12-2 in Sun Belt play and 11-2 overall.
On the flipside, the Warhawks are mired in a 1-4 spread slide when catching points on the road in this range.
Lay the chalk in this contest.
1♦ ARKANSAS STATE
Michael Cannon
Kansas at TEXAS A&M +7
I delivered the outright winner on St. John’s yesterday which improved my free play run to 78-69-3 with my last 150 plays.
Take the points with Texas A&M at home tonight over Kansas.
This is obviously a tough spot for the Aggies, but I feel they will be up to the task tonight with the top-ranked team in the nation coming in.
Texas A&M has won five straight and seven of its last eight, so it’s not like the Aggies are struggling right now. I’m also encouraged by their performance against Texas back on Jan. 16, when they lost at home in overtime to the previously No. 1-ranked Longhorns.
If they bring that kind of effort tonight that they did against the Longhorns I feel like the Aggies will have no trouble staying within this number.
The Jayhawks have failed to cover in four of their last five overall, while the Aggies are on positive ATS runs of 7-3 after a spread-cover, 4-0 in conference play and 5-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Take the points with Texas A&M as they stay within the number.
2♦ TEXAS A&M