Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 17

Jimmy Boyd

Baylor -4

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have really been struggling without Marcus Smart. They have lost both of their games without him, even losing straight up as a favorite at home in their last outing. It was the sixth consecutive loss for the Cowboys, and seventh consecutive against the spread. Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears are turning their season around. They have won back-to-back games over conference opponents in dominating fashion. The Bears crushed TCU on the road, winning by 33 points. They followed that performance with a 14 point win at home against Kansas State.

The loss of Marcus Smart has hurt the Cowboys the most on the defensive end of the court. Oklahoma State is already a soft defensive team when playing on the road. They have forced just 10 turnovers per game without Smart, allowing an average of 82 points in those games, and that tells me this is a team that will be in big trouble tonight against the Bears. Baylor has played well at home posting a 10-4 record, and they are averaging 76.7 points in those games. The Bears won by six points at Oklahoma State when these teams met just over two weeks ago, and with home court advantage they will have no problem repeating that feat.

Tom Grassi

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -4

The emotional state of these two teams are probably going in opposite directions after Saturday’s action, since the visiting Cowboys dropped a last-minute heartbreaker at home against in-state rival Oklahoma, while the Bears won a thriller in double overtime against Kansas State. Baylor sent the game into OT with a three-pointer at the buzzer.

Both teams have identical straight up and pointspread records (16-9, 4-8), but the Bears have covered three of their last five, while Oklahoma State is reeling with six straight outright losses and seven consecutive fails when it comes to the betting line.

In this series, the home team has ruled during the last 15 meetings, covering 12 times. That magnifies the fact that the Cowboys have struggled a great deal on the road against teams with a strong home court advantage. In their last 26 games versus a team with a winning record at home, Oklahoma State has covered just seven times.

Ordinarily, the Cowboys would be prime candidates to take advantage of the revenge angle, since they were double-digit favorites at home against the Bears on February 1, but dropped a 76-70 decision. However, the way they’re playing, as well as the momentum-fueled win that Baylor had means that they can be the only choice here, so lay the points and take the Bears.

Jim Feist

Oklahoma State at Baylor
Pick: Baylor

Both these clubs enter tonight's contest 16-9 overall but out of the Big 12 regular season championship race. With OSU and Baylor both just 4-8 in the conference, neither club is looking too good for a NCAA bid right now. OSU has lost it big time recently, especially without start guard Marcus Smart who will sit out the final game of his three-game suspension tonight. Freshman guard Stevie Clark (dismissed from team) and forward Michael Cobbins (injury) are also gone from this club. It's no wonder the shorthanded State club is 0-6 S/U their last six and 0-7 ATS their last seven. The defense has also been hit hard, allowing 76 or more points in five of their last six losses. Meanwhile, Baylor is hoping their good RPI coupled with a strong late run might garner them an at large bid. The Bears have won two straight and covered three of their last five. They also shocked OSU in Stillwater back on Feb 1st, 76-70 as an 11 1/2 point dog. Hate to lay 5 or 5 1/2 here with Baylor, but the free fall that OSU is experiencing is too much to pass on. I'll take the home club Baylor here on Monday as they need this contest to improve their NCAA hopes.

DAVE COKIN

TEXAS STATE AT GEORGIA STATE
PLAY: GEORGIA STATE -13.5

The streak is over for Georgia State. After winning 13 straight games, including their first ten in Sun Belt action, the Panthers threw in a real clunker on Saturday as they were upset at Troy. Georgia State will try and get back on track tonight as they entertain Texas State.

It looked to me like the Panthers had little in the way of focus in the loss at Troy. Perhaps they just took the opponent for granted. Maybe the nine days between games thanks to weather issues sapped their energy. Whatever the reason, Georgia State just wasn’t ready to play. One first half stat pretty much told the story. Troy won the offensive board battle 11-2 in those first 20 minutes, and that’s just effort. One team had plenty, the other didn’t.

Texas State hasn’t been winning much, although the Bobcats have certainly been working hard to compete. In fact, even though the losses continue to pile up, this team has not absorbed a double digit loss in more than a month.

Danny Kaspar did some amazing things as head coach at SF Austin and there is no doubt in my mind he’s going to win eventually at Texas State. But for the time being, Kaspar has a team that doesn’t shoot the ball well and handles it even worse. That doesn’t bode well for them tonight.

That Texas State turnover issue is key tonight. They lose it more than any team in the league, while Georgia State is tops in the SBC on both offense and defense in that department. The Bobcats also don’t defend the three well at all, and the hosts are the most accurate long range team in the conference.

This looks like a prime matchup for Georgia State, and coming off a pretty shabby effort on Saturday, I would expect Ron Hunter to have the Panthers ready to roll tonight. There’s no bargain to be had with this betting line, but it looks like the right night to lay the lumber with Georgia State.

Chase Diamond

Oklahoma St vs. Baylor
Play:Oklahoma St +4½

This game features the 16-9 Oklahoma State at the 16-9 Baylor. Oklahoma State has lost 6 straight games and will be fully motivated team tonight that is much better then they're 16-9 record. Baylor won 76-70 on 2/1 so expect Oklahoma State to want to return the favor tonight. Baylor was just in a grueling double overtime game with Kstate so this team will have tired legs. Obviously Oklahoma State are again going to be without Marcus Smart again and his absence is big but this is a game that Oklahoma State must have. Baylor is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 77 or more ppg. Public is backing Baylor big at home at a rate of 76%. Take Oklahoma State plus the points.

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Sam Martin

North Carolina at Florida State
Prediction: Florida State

This game just doesn't smell right - and we believe Vegas having Florida State as a small one-point home favorite against North Carolina seems like a trap. We're going to back the Seminoles at home despite believing in our hearts that the Tar Heels are the better team.

However, UNC all of a sudden has a lookahead with the rescheduled game against Duke now up next, and we're not convinced FSU will have North Carolina's full attention. We did back UNC here as our Member Play in their win and cover vs. Pittsburgh on Saturday, but now having to play on the road and in that lookahead spot is not an ideal situation. UNC just 3-11 ATS on the road playing with 1 or 0 days of rest, and they fall flat tonight!

Dave Price

Florida State +1.5

North Carolina has come on strong with six consecutive wins and covers, but I believe it meets its match tonight. This is a difficult spot for the Tar Heels, who are off a big win over Pitt and have a big game against rival Duke on Thursday. The fact UNC has had just one day to gear up for this contest makes it an even tougher situation. The Heels are just 3-11 ATS the last three seasons in road games when playing on one day of rest or none. This is a game Florida State wants badly. It lost each of last season's three meetings with the two most recent losses coming by 19 and 21 points so it will be extremely motivated here. I expect to see an outstanding effort from the Seminoles, who rank 11th in the country in field goal percentage defense at 38.6 percent, on the defensive end. UNC is on a 13-30 ATS slide in road games occurring 15 games or more into the season versus teams that hold their opponents to 39.0 percent shooting or worse. Because of how solid Leonard Hamilton's Florida State teams have been at the defensive end, they have thrived in close games. In fact, the Noles are 53-33 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under his watch. Take Florida State.

Jack Jones

Baylor -4.5

The Baylor Bears (16-9) have played themselves right back into contention for the NCAA Tournament. They have won three of their last five games overall, including a 76-70 road win at Oklahoma State, and an 87-73 triumph at home versus Kansas State.

Oklahoma State has been playing itself out of NCAA Tournament contention over the last few weeks. It has lost six straight games overall while going 0-6 ATS in the process. Three of those losses came on the road, including two in blowout fashion at Oklahoma (76-88) and Texas (68-87).

This will be the final game of a three-game suspension for Oklahoma State's best player in Marcus Smart. This team simply isn't nearly as strong without him, and it has shown the past two games. Smart is averaging 17.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.2 steals per game.

The Cowboys are 33-64 ATS in their last 97 games as a road underdog or pick. Oklahoma State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Cowboys are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Oklahoma State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Baylor Monday.

Jeff Alexander

Towson -3

Look for Delaware to suffer its first conference loss at Towson, which is 13-1 at home this season and won last season's home meeting with Delaware by 20 points. Delaware won the season's first matchup, but the Tigers are 14-4 ATS when out for revenge for a loss over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 4.1 points on average. The Blue Hens are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Towson. Bet the Tigers.

Lee Williams

Delaware +3½

Delaware has been absolutely sizzling and on 13 game winning streak.Delaware has also played a tougher schedule,particularly in non-conference and we feel that is showing at this point.Delaware also on 24-13 run as road dog and they have beaten Towson 3 of last 5 meetings, with one of those losses by 3 points.We will grab points tonight and expect another SU win for Delaware.

Ray Monohan

North Carolina +1

UNC is not dominating this year but they are on their best run right now and have the talent to easily take care of Florida State. The Seminoles have been known to make it difficult for opponents and their backs are against the wall if they want to play in the big tournament come March. I like this spot as UNC should come in loose. FSU will not run away from them and I think their talent advantage will shine through in the end. It may not be pretty but they will get the victory.

Doug Upstone

Florida State +1

Good matchup in Tallahassee tonight as the Tar Heels visit the Seminoles. This is a huge game for FSU as they try to stay on the good side of the bubble with some tough games coming up prior the the ACC tournament.

They are ranked eighth nationally in field-goal percentage defense (38.6), and hope to have a loud home crowd to help them further. UNC may be peeking ahead to Thursday night's game against Duke. Take FSU on the moneyline Monday night.

Delaware / Towson Under 151½

On Monday, Play UNDER on teams like Towson when the total is between 150 and 159.5 points, after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game (they won 85-70 as five-point underdogs). The thinking on this free college basketball play is team's like Towson usually are coming off an unusual offensive game (they are, since they average 72.5 PPG) and they return to near normal numbers. In the past five seasons, this situation is 64-27, 70.3 percent.

SPORTS WAGERS

Oklahoma State +4 over BAYLOR

Baylor has won two straight over TCU and K-State but TCU is nothing and the victory over K-State occurred in double OT just two days ago. Prior to that Baylor had dropped seven of eight and in the BIG-12, the Bears are just 4-8 overall. During a recent five-game losing streak, Scott Drew's Bears were the favorites four times, losing ATS by a combined 51.5 points in those contests. Three wins in five games later, the Bears have allowed their opponents, outside of TCU, to make more than half of its shots each time. Baylor still looks absolutely nothing like the squad that opened the season with a 12-1 mark in nonconference play. Teams that don't play defense aren't teams you want to support when they face Oklahoma State.

Ever since losing to Kansas by two points on January 18, Oklahoma State has not been the same. In fact, the Cowboys have lost their last six games and have only one victory since that aforementioned loss to KU but we’re not going to allow that to deter us from taking back points on the better team. Oklahoma State has been playing championship-level defense all season, holding opponents under 40 percent shooting from the floor while allowing only a 0.66 assist-to-turnover ratio. Marcus Smart and Markel Brown are getting the headlines while averaging more than 34 points per game between them, but Travis Ford's squad is so dangerous because opposing teams simply aren't getting open looks against the Cowboys in half-court sets or easy buckets in transition. The Cowboys lost to Baylor in Stillwater back on February 1. At that time the Cowboys were ranked #8 in the country but come into this one, 2½-weeks later, unranked. The only thing that has changed for the Cowboys are the bounces, which are not going their way lately, but this team is too good to pass up taking back some points with. Don’t be afraid to play the Cowboys outright.

Wunderdog

Oklahoma St at Baylor
Pick: Under 143.5

Oklahoma State loves to run, but the offense takes a huge dip away from home. The Cowboys have scored 68, 61, 76, 78, 71, and 72 points their last six road games, all way under their 82 points per game average. It won't help their offense here without Marcus Smart, serving the final game of his 3-game suspension for shoving a Texas Tech fan in the final seconds. They've lost two in a row without him scoring 68 and 74 points. Baylor is home, and the UNDER is 4-1 in the Bears last five home games. Baylor has won three of five and has allowed 60 and 57 points in regulation in each of the last two games, so look for more defense than offense. Play Oklahoma State/Baylor UNDER the Total.