Rob Veno
UNC-Wilmington at William & Mary
Play: UNC-Wilmington +9
Extremely short card today but the Colonial Athletic Association does provide a chance to play a current “under the radar” team. While UNC-Wilmington has been and is still totally ignored by public bettors, sharps have warmed up to the Seahawks somewhat but nowhere near as much as rival CAA head coaches. Quotes from virtually every opposing coach have painted an extremely positive picture about how Buzz Peterson has his troops playing. Included in the group who have referred to UNCW as “very dangerous”, and capable of winning a half dozen games to close the season is William & Mary’s Tony Shaver. Shaver’s squad got out of Wilmington with a 54-50 win and cover as -3.5 point favorites just 12 days ago in a game where UNCW shut down one of the league’s best offenses. Since that contest, Wilmington has gone 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread including a 13-point win over conference power Towson. It’s a bit treacherous playing against the dynamic and very efficient Tribe offense (47% FG) but UNCW’s personnel is now playing to its potential and with a notable defensive identity. I was a backer of the W&M team in the earlier meeting and continue to like them as a genuine threat in the CAA tournament but in this price range, I’m supporting the hard charging underdog.
Joe Williams
Oklahoma St. at Baylor
Play: Baylor -4
Baylor has absolutely owned Oklahoma State over the years, especially against the spread, and until the Cowboys prove otherwise, hammer the Bears hard.
The home team is 12-3 ATS in the past 15 meetings in this series, and the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings. And OSU is 0-7 ATS in their past seven trips to Waco.
If the historic trends do not do it for you, consider OK State is 0-7 ATS in their past 12 conference games, and 1-9 ATS in their past 10 road games.
Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record.
AC Dinero
Weber State vs. Idaho State
Play: Weber St -2.5
Slim card toniight. We usually don't take road favorites, until we get near the end of the season and teams start to pack it in. THat is what we have here, and a cheap enough line. Weber has won 9 of 10 and is looking to win the automatic bid. Idaho St would need a miracle to win it. S0, these final few games of the season will be like practice games for them, since a win or 2 will have no bearing on the outcome. They will need some major upsets in their conference tournament: win,lose or draw. Weber does everyting better. One sign of Idaho St packing it in is their defense over the past 5 games, giving up 48% from the floor.
Cajun Sports
UNC-Wilmington vs. William & Mary
Play: William & Mary -10
These two teams just met back on February 5 in North Carolina with WM& Mary coming away with a 54 to 50 road win as a three-point favorite. UNC-Wilmington is coming off a road loss at James Madison losing 64 to 62. WM&Mary are also coming in off a loss at home to Towson State 85 to 70 as a 5-point home favorite. This is important as WM & Mary is a perfect 6-0 against the spread coming off one or more consecutive losses this season. WM & Mary is 7-1 ATS versus teams with a losing record this season and 12-5 ATS overall this season. Lay the points
Tony Bucca
Delaware vs. Towson
Play: Delaware +3
Great game on an off night. Must watch if you are at all interested in college baskets. Delaware is on a series roll winning 13 in a row while Towson has won 7 of it's L10. Stats, trends and most important to me in this game, power rankings, suggest a very close contest resulting in the very least a Delaware cover, with the potential to win in the final seconds.
Steve Rosen
Oklahoma St vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -5
Baylor already beat Oklahoma State this season and did it on the road, by 6 points! In their most recent matchups, Baylor has covered 4 straight games against Ok State. Oklahoma State hasn't covered in 7 games! Baylor rolls over Oklahoma State, especially without Marcus Smart!
Bruce Marshall
NC Wilmington at William & Mary
Pick: William & Mary
Wilmington broke a 14-game SU losing streak last week vs. Towson, relieving a bit of immediate pressure from besieged HC Buzz Peterson. But still not interested in backing the troubled Seahawks against chemistry-rich W&M, which had won and covered 5 of last 6 prior before losing on Saturday vs. Towson, moving itself into favorable seeding position (and a valued first-round bye) in the upcoming CAA Tourney in Richmond. The Tribe survived a sluggish effort a couple of weeks ago at Trask Coliseum, winning by 4, and has mostly been able to count upon big efforts from on-fire jr. G Marcus Thornton (20 ppg), making a push for CAA MVP honors with four games of 25+ points in his last six thru Feb. 14. W&M is 4-1 as Williamsburg chalk this season.
River City Sharps
Idaho St +3
This is game that we had an initial lean last night but really wanted to see how the line would move, if at all. Well it certainly has moved and we are giving up some value, but frankly, we prefer to give up a little value and have more confidence that we have the right side. We definitely have some more confidence as this line opened up at Weber State -4.5 and is now at -3, yet 72% of the public are placing tickets on Weber St. Classic RLM situation and interesting being that this game is not a big "public" matchup. These two teams met on January 20th and Weber St took a 7-point win, so we also have a revenge factor tonight for the home doggie. There are tons of good "fundamentals" that point to Weber St. being the clear choice tonight, the much better team. Yet we are seeing clear "Sharp" line movement towards the home dog, and those are the kind of moves these Sharps really like. We are taking a side with the home team tonight.
Harry Bondi
FLORIDA STATE (+1) over North Carolina
Home team has dominated this series going 5-2 ATS the last seven meeting and we expect North Carolina to be peeking ahead to it's huge match-up with Duke on Thursday, so lets back the Seminoles for another FREE Winner tonight!
Dr. Bob
Opinion – Davidson (-17) over THE CITADEL
The Citadel is one of the worst teams in the nation but Davidson should be more focused than expected given that the Wildcats were only leading The Citadel by 2 points with less than 9 minutes at home just a couple of weeks ago before outscoring the Bulldogs 26-9 to win by 19. The Citadel apply to a negative 13-48-1 ATS big home dog situation that plays against horrible teams and Davidson has covered in 9 straight road games since opening the season with a 34 point loss at Duke. The Citadel is 0-4 ATS in conference home games and their average game rating at home is 4.6 points worse than their overall rating. My issue is the line, as Davidson opened as a 15 point favorite and the line has moved up to -17. My ratings favor Davidson by 16 points. I just don’t want to give up the line value to force a Best Bet so I’ll just lean with Davidson at -17 and I’d take Davidson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less.
Opinion – Texas State (+12) over GEORGIA STATE
Georgia State’s upset loss at Troy sets up the Panthers in a very negative 10-84-1 ATS situation (yes, 10-84-1!). I love that situation but the line opened at +13½ and has gone down to +12 and my ratings favor Georgia State by 14½ points. I’ll lean with Texas State because the situation is so good.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Florida State/ North Carolina Under 143: Im just not seeing this one in the 140's at all. The Noles play solid defense, especially at home where they have allowed just 61.7 ppg on 38.4% shooting and they should have a good defensive showing in this one vs a Carolina team that struggles to score on the road, putting up just 66 ppg on 42.2% shooting overall. The Heels have also hit just 21.3% from long range and 62.3% from the charity stripe away from home. This team has offensive problems on the road, but their defense has been solid away from home, allowing just 65.9 ppg on 40.3% shooting. The Heels seem to be getting better on defense as the season goes on. The Noles do average 75.7 ppg at home, but they have scored just 66 ppg on 42.2% shooting in their last 5 games overall, so I don't expect 70+ from them in this game. Noles home game have averaged 137.4 ppg and their last 5 overall have put up just 131.6 ppg, while Carolina road games have averaged just 134.9 ppg. Value on the under here.
Miss Valley State/ Southern Under 143: The Only reason that this game has an OU line in the 140's is because of the fact that MVSU allows 88.2 ppg on the road. Other than that, there is no reason to think this game will get the high scoring. Southern is a 14 point fav in the game and that really means they shoud get the pace where they want in and that is in the 130's. Southern home games have averaged just 127 ppg this year and that is 16 points off of tonight's total. They allow just 59.2 ppg on a mere 34.8% shooting on their home floor, while MSVU has scored just 65 ppg on 36.9% shooting. Very hard to envision more than 61 or 62 from them in this one. Southern's highest scoring games this year have been on the road, as other teams have been able to get them in a running game at times, but at home it is a different story. In heir 8 home games vs division 1 foes they have scored more than 73 point just once and that was an OT game vs Ark- Little Rock back in November. They have scored just 64.5 ppg in their SWAC home games this year, while only scoring more than 73 points just twice in their 12 SWAC games overall this year. This team will not push tempo in this one, even vs a bad defensive squad like MSVU. They like their games played in the lower 130s or below and will get that here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma State/ Baylor Over 143: Gonna go with the Over here. Both teams have the potential to score plenty of points on any given night and see that happening here. Oklahoma State has had plenty of problems on defense of late as they come in allowing an average of 77.9 ppg (Regulation Only) in their last 8 games. Plus they have allowed 76.1 ppg on the road overall this year, including allowing 77.2 ppg in Big 12 road games. The Bears have had The Bears have averaged 75.6 ppg overall and 74.6 ppg at home, so they are more than capable of 75+ vs this putrid OSU defense. Baylor has been solid on defense, allowing just 65.6 ppg at home, but OSU's uptempo attack that has averaged 74.3 ppg on the road should be able to crack that Bears defense, even without Smart in there. I see this game being played in te Upper 140's.
OC Dooley
Oklahoma State +5.5
It comes as no personal shock that Baylor who opened as a four-point favorite at most offshore locales is now a five-and-a-half point chose as the line has inflated. Tonight is the third and final game to the suspension of star Marcus Smart and his Oklahoma State Cowboys are in the midst of a disastrous 0-6 SU/ATS skid. However even with Smart in the lineup Baylor on the first day of February traveled to Oklahoma State and pulled off an upset (by a six-point margin) which puts tonight’s rematch in the REVENGE category. While the Cowboys have had their problems, Baylor has also struggled through a tough campaign as they recently endured 1-7 SU/ATS in league play.