Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 18

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia vs. Kansas St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: West VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a "revenge game" for the Mountaineers after they lost 65-64 to Kansas State on January 12th.
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WVU comes into this game with plenty of momentum as well after beating Texas Tech 66-64 on February 16th. Deniz Kilicli had 25 points. Eron Harris chipped in 15. It was the third sweep of a Big 12 team in WVU's inaugural season after coming over from the Big East. WVU was sharp in the second half, shooting almost 59% from the floor.
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The Wildcats are coming off an 81-61 win over Baylor on the 16th. Angel Rodriguez had 22 points; Shane Southwell added 18 points.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that West Virginia is 7-6 ATS vs. conference opponents this year, and 3-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.
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Note that Kansas State is just 1-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, and just 3-4 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.
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Pick Analysis
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I believe these teams are very evenly matched, and believe the obvious "revenge factor" can not be overlooked. While I won't call for an outright victory, I do believe that WVU keeps this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe!

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh -10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame’s roster has been shrinking and that lack of depth really showed in their last outing against Providence. Now they play on the road against Pittsburgh which will be their second road game in three days. The Fighting Irish looked winded for most of their game against the Friars and that lack of conditioning is what makes Pittsburgh the value play in this game.
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A tired team is a team that will shoot poorly and lose the turnover margin, and the Irish did just that in their last game. They shot an abysmal 7% from beyond the three point line and 39 percent from the field. The had three more turnovers and three more fouls than the Friars and in return received a 17 point beat down.
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This matchup against Pittsburgh falls into a system that is 29-12 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. You want to play against road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points when they are playing with one or less days rest in a game involving two teams that have won between 60-80% of their games.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame vs. PittsburghFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame has stayed under 12 of the last 25 times as a dog and 5 of the last 6 times on the road when the posted total is 120 to 130. They have also stayed under 75% of the time in the 2nd half of late vs teams that allow 65 or less points per game. Pittsburgh has played under 4 of their last 5 games and 3 of the last 4 times with 1 or less day of rest. The last 4 in the series between these two have played under the total and The Panthers will look to clamp down defensively as they are coming off their worst defensive effort this season allowing a season high 56% shooting in their loss at Marquette. Look for this one to stay under.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hofstra at DrexelFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This Hofstra club has been an amazing under play. In fact, every game this season with a over/under line in Hofstra's schedule has gone UNDER. That includes the last four games, last 11 games and 12 total unders in 12 posted over/unders this season. That's 0-12 O/U!!! Drexel started the season hitting some overs, going over in their first three posted totals. Since then, the Dragons have gone 5-8 Over/Under. That includes eight of the last 11 games going UNDER. We get a 117.5 total here on Monday. Don't expect Hofstra to get much over 50, so even 60 by Drexel won't put this over. I look for another UNDER here on Monday.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. NY IslandersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play NY IslandersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the the duo of John Tavares and Matt Moulson are in top form (like they are now) the Isles are hard to beat. John Tavares has goals in five consecutive games, including a hat trick (one assist) on Feb. 16 vs. New Jersey. With a goal and three assists on Feb. 16 vs. New Jersey, Matt Moulson has 14 points (5-9-14) in his last 10 games. vs. NY Islanders NY Islanders
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When the the duo of John Tavares and Matt Moulson are in top form (like they are now) the Isles are hard to beat. John Tavares has goals in five consecutive games, including a hat trick (one assist) on Feb. 16 vs. New Jersey. With a goal and three assists on Feb. 16 vs. New Jersey, Matt Moulson has 14 points (5-9-14) in his last 10 games.

Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iona at FairfieldFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: IonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This season the Stags have had booked a streaking personality. In December they won 6 straight, January they went on a downer dropping 5 in a row. Further, in late January and early February, Fairfield with a 6-1 run. They are coming off a blistering 74-52 win over Siena. Back in January the Stags defeated the Gaels 84-73.
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Iona’s best run this season started in late December and ended in January with an 8-1 streak. Since January 31st the Gaels have lost 4 of the last 5, last time out losing a heart breaking 74-73 game to improved Manhattan in New York. In fact, each of those loses were very winnable games. Iona has won 4 of the last 5 SU in the series. And, although, the Stags appear to the edge with a more balanced attack and the superior defense on their home floor, prefer Iona who is about to turn it around with a effective performance as the road team is 4-1 ATS in the recent battles.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Eastern Washington at Portland State
Pick: Portland StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tough times this season for both Eastern Washington and Portland State a pair of low end Big Sky clubs. But someone has to win this, and I will be giving the nod to the home team. Not the worst chart play you'll see, with Portland State finally snapping an 0-8 SU, 0-9 ATS run with the blowout over Southern Utah on Thursday. Eastern Washington is also off a nice win as the Eagles throttled the Thunderbirds as well on Saturday. But Eastern Washington remains a money burner on the road, while the Vikings have some okay numbers at home long term. I don't have a problem with this spread as I actually make the home team slightly better than the number, so I'll side with Portland State minus the points tonight.

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland St. -4.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As we go battle of the Big Sky Bottom feeders...yuk is all we have to say but a winner is winner .. Big Sky Conference Banger to the Vikes ... - 4.5 in the "Dam Cup" season series. Last game these Vikings (6-16, 4-11) off a CRUSHING 90-69 winner vs the Southern Utah Cbb crew... Eastern Washington, 2-12 on the road this season, beat the Vikings, 76-65 as this a in season revenger for the HOME CREW... Our Power Rated rankings have the Vikings -7.8 point and A HUGE edge on Defense as these stats are a big big part of the O's power rated stats... Let's look for a 6 to 8 ... #'S ARE STRONG AT > > > Favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ottawa vs. New JerseyFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While Ottawa has admittedly not looked good since Norris Trophy winning defender Erik Karlsson went down last week vs. the Penguins, in fact the Sens had been struggling to score goals long before Karlsson's injury. Indeed, the absence of another key performer, center Jason Spezza, out for the past few weeks with a back injury, looks to be the real trigger to the Sens' offensive downturn that's seen them score only 11 goals in 8 games this motnh and convert power plays at a paltry 6.5% over that span. Now Ottawa likely faces Devils GK Martin Brodeur, who has a history of shutting down the Sens (he's 5-1-0 with a 1.89 GAA in his last seven at home vs. Ottawa). We're not sure the Senators even get on the board tonight, and even the reduced "total" of five gaols looks like mountain, considering the specifics of this game tonight at the Pru Center. Play Senators-Devils "Under"

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY ISLANDERS -110 over PhiladelphiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Matinée game on the Island sees the heating up Islanders anxious to get back to work, this time against a reeling Flyers bunch, which seems a couple steps slower than every other team in the league. The Flyers have dropped three of their past four. They’ve won just six of 16 games and they’re a -11 in goal differential. Two of their six wins came against the Hurricanes and they deserved to win neither. Kimmo Timonen, the Flyers 14-year vet that they rely heavily on for some stability is a -5 over the past four games. Timonen looks slow and old as does half the team and in this condensed season, it’s already showing how vulnerable this veteran laden team is.
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The Islanders are coming off wins over the Devils and Rangers. Against the Rangers, they scored three consecutive goals in a seven minute 2nd period span and then repeated the same feat against the Devils on Saturday. John Tavaras has 11 goals in the past 10 games to lead this explosive offense. The Islanders are simply, quicker, more talented and in better form that the Flyers. Now the good part; The Flyers have won six straight and 13 of 14 at Nassau Coliseum. They’ve also gone an incredible 28-3-1 since the start of the 2007-08 season. We can assure you that the Islanders are well aware of their futility against this intruder and now it’s time to put an end to that lunacy. Look for a big effort at a cheap price from this superior host.
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FLORIDA +100 over TorontoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Leafs are coming off a 3-0 home win over the depleted Senators on Saturday but a thing of beauty it was not. Had it not been for the outstanding goaltending by Leafs goalie Ben Scrivens, Toronto would’ve been in trouble as they certainly didn’t outplay the Sens. Lost in the Maple Leafs’ success over the past six games is that they’re without several key players and that outside of that 6-0 win over Montreal, they have not defeated a team above .500 since the third game of the year.
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On paper, the Panthers have four wins and 10 losses. However, four of those defeats occurred in extra time. Florida has picked up points in seven of its past eight games and had they won half those OT games, which are a roll of the dice to begin with, they would not be a dog at home here. The Panthers have won four straight over the Leafs at this venue while outscoring them 18-7. A visit from the Maple Leafs attracts the biggest crowd of the season at the BB&T Center because there are so many Canadians living or staying close by. Playing in front of a packed house is inspiring and although half the crowd are Maple Leafs fans, it does not matter as the Leafs bring out the best in Florida and Toronto is going to have to show a lot more consistency over a longer period of time before being trusted as road chalk.
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Carolina +107 over MONTREALFOR REE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Canadiens have won nine of 15 games. Montreal is one of the best skating teams in the league but they have also won some games because of the great goaltending of Carey Price. Price will sit this one out again as a flu bug has made its way around the Habs’ dressing room. Peter Budaj was solid in Montreal’s win over the Flyers on Saturday but this opponent is not the sloth like skating Flyers.
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Carolina is just as quick as Montreal but more talented. After a shaky start to the year, ‘Canes goaltender, Cam Ward, has found his game again and the results have followed. Carolina has won five of six with only loss over that stretch occurring in OT. They’ve outscored the opposition 20-10 in those five wins while dominating games for long stretches at a time. The Hurricanes are 5-2-1 on the road and while the Canadiens are an improved club, they’re certainly not as good as their 65% win ratio suggests. Perception has them overpriced here.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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PITTSBURGH -10 -110 over Notre DameFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We often talk about tricky lines, whereas a known program is a small road favorite over a lesser known program. It can be enticing to play the small road favorite but it usually doesn’t work out well. We mention that because this one is similar but it’s not the favorite that looks enticing. Both the Irish (#21) and Panthers (#16) are ranked. The two schools have identical 8-5 conference marks and 20-8 overall records. So how can it be that Pittsburgh is a 10-point favorite over this seemingly conference equal?
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No doubt, the points are as enticing as any price we’ve seen this season but we know better. We could go into the X’s and O’s of the game and explain how each club has a certain advantage over the other in specific areas. Forget that. We know a “tricky” line when we see one and for Irish backers, this has trouble written all over it. With that in mind, we’ll side with the school that the oddsmakers don’t want us to side with and let the chips fall where they may.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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William & Mary +2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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William & Mary lost the season's first meeting by 16 points on the road but shot just 37.7% from the field and 26.7% from three-point range in that game. Since then, the Tribe have put their shooting woes behind them. They have shot 45% or better in each of their last 5 games and have been above the 53% mark 3 times during this stretch. They have really been pouring it on from three lately and have won their last two games as a result. They made 12 3's against NC Wilmington and 10 against Old Dominion. With this in mind, consider that W & M is on a 12-3 ATS run after 2 straight games where it made 10 or more 3 point shots. It has won by an average of 7.2 points in these contests. This will be Georgia State's third game since Wednesday and recent history suggests the Panthers will struggle. They are on a 7-20 ATS slide in road games when playing their 3rd game in a week and have lost by an average of 2.7 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that Georgia State is 0-6 ATS in road games the last 2 seasons versus slow-down teams that average 53 shots or fewer per game. The Panthers have lost these games by an average score of 64.9 to 59.1. Take the Tribe.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Ottawa/ New Jersey Under 5: The Senators have gone 4-11 to the under this year and that is mainly because they can't score. They have averaged 2.33 gpg overall, including 2 gpg on the road and they come in having scored just 6 goals in their last 5 games. Now they take their sorry offense to New Jersey, to face a squad that is 7th in goal allowed (2.25) and 4th in shots per game against (26.5) The Devils have also allowed just 2.3 gpg at home on the year. On offense the devils are 13th in scoring (2.7 gpg), but they are not an offensive minded team as they average just 26.2 shots per game, which is 29th in the league. Ottawa on defense has been solid, and they have needed to with their bad offense. The Sens have allowed just 1.9 gpg on the year (3rd) and they are 2nd in the league in penalty kill. Should be a low scoring game here, especially with the early start time and with both defenses being among the best in the league.

More later

Wunderdog

Norfolk State at Hampton
Pick: Norfolk State -1

The Norfolk State Spartans made an NCAA Tournament appearance a year ago. It was more than an appearance as they knocked off Missouri. They enter this game at 16-10, and have caught fire as they continue to improve. The Spartans have won ten straight games. Hampton is 10-13, but have won their last five. However, a closer look shows how fortunate they have been. They have won two of them in overtime and all five by a combined 16 points. That may not be so bad, except those five opponents have a combined record of 45-75. That isn't what they will be seeing tonight. The Spartans are 12-4 ATS following a win and are on a roll. Play on Norfolk State.