David Banks
Notre Dame Fighting +10.5
Two teams coming off of disappointing losses meet when the Pittsburgh Panthers (20-6, 9-10 ATS) host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20-6, 11-12 ATS) Monday at the Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh at 7:00 ET on ESPN, but which team will bounce back? Well, although these teams have identical records both overall and in the Big East (8-5), Pittsburgh still looks far superior on the Pomeroy Ratings after Saturday's 79-69 road loss to a Marquette team ranked 25th on Pomeroy. Meanwhile, Notre Dame lost 71-54 at 55th ranked Providence Saturday.
A case can still be made that Pittsburgh is the most underrated team in the country, as despite having six losses, the Panthers are still remarkably ranked fourth overall in the country by Pomeroy! It helps that five of those six losses came to teams ranked in the Pomeroy Top 30 including two narrow losses to Top 5 teams, as the Panthers lost by three points on the road to third ranked Louisville and by five points on a neutral floor to fifth ranked Michigan. Perhaps most impressively however, Pittsburgh is ranked sixth in the country in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency, making it one of only three schools ranked in the top 15 in both categories with the other two teams being Florida and Indiana, who by the way are the two current favorites to win the national championship at most reputable sportsbooks! And yet, Pittsburgh has received hardly any national fanfare, so look for the Panthers to take advantage of this prime time nationally televised opportunity to show the country just how good they are, especially playing at home.
As mentioned, Notre Dame as the same records as Pittsburgh both in and out of conference, and yet the Irish are ranked just 60th on Pomeroy, even falling behind Providence after Saturday's loss to the Friars! Now, Notre Dame does have the offense to compete with anyone as it ranks 12th in the land in offensive efficiency, although this will be the only Big East game all year where the Irish actually trail their opponent in that category. But the biggest difference between these two teams and the reason why Notre Dame lags so far behind Pittsburgh on the computers is defense. The Irish rank 180th in the nation in defensive efficiency and 104th in effective field goal percentage allowed overall, and when looking at Big East Conference games only, Notre Dame is ranked 14th out of 15 schools in both defensive efficiency and in effective field goal percentage allowed, and it ranks dead last in defensive turnover percentage. In addition to the troubles Notre Dame will have stopping Pittsburgh's initial shots, also remember that the Panthers rank third in the entire country in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Irish are only 96th in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Panthers are usually resilient, as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. On the other hand, the Fighting Irish are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss. Also Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. teams with winning records. Key word USUALLY not tonight.
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Notre Dame at PittsburghFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Too many points for Pittsburgh to be laying here, especially considering their winning margins over the last few weeks. The Panthers lost by 10 points over the weekend on the road against a good Marquette team, but even dismissing that result the Panthers haven't won by more than 10 points in six of their last seven games - the lone exception being against DePaul. The Irish have proved to be a tough out lately, going to five overtimes against Louisville and rarely getting blown out (fatigue likely played a big role in their most recent defeat). Pittsburgh has scored just 63 ppg over their last five, and any similar scoring output today would make it virtually impossible for them to cover this big number. Pittsburgh gets the outright win here, but not by much.
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E. Washington at Portland StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: E. WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that EWU will lose this game by five or fewer points. In games like this where the sim has graded a significant dog with realistic opportunities to win the game I like using a combination wager. So, consider a 7* amount on the line and a 3* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 56-24 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2007. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 or more consecutive wins and is a struggling team winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season. Sim projects that EWU will score between 67 and 74 pints and will have 34 to 39 rebounds. In past games this is very good news noting they are 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game since 1997; 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. Take Eastern Washington.
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Norfolk State vs. HamptonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: HamptonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a big revenge spot for Hampton between two of the top teams in conference play. Hampton had a 7 point half time lead on Norfolk State that they blew. IN that game they were -8 turnovers, they allowed 46%, were -14 FTA. Those things won't happen at home where they are +1.5 turnovers, +2.5 FTA and they've held opponents to 38.8% while Norfolk has only shot 39.8% in road games. I expect Hampton to win this game.
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights +10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There's going to be a lot of public action on Villanova at home against a Rutgers team that just lost leading scorer Eli Carter to a season-ending injury in Saturday's 69-75 loss at DePaul, but I actually think the value is with the Scarlet Knights. Villanova is coming off a big road win at Connecticut Saturday. I already marked this as a letdown game for the Wildcats with an important home game against Marquette on deck. I believe the injury to Carter will only make it that much harder for Villanova to get motivated for this game. The Wildcats are just 1-9 ATS off two consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons!
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While Carter will be missed, Rutgers still has a pretty good offensive weapon in sophomore Myles Mack, who dropped 28 points in the loss to DePaul. Look for Mack to take over the scoring load and the rest of the team to step up their game. This is a big game for the Scarlet Knights, as they haven't forgot about the 21-point loss to Villanova in last year's Big East Tournament.
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Pittsburgh Panthers -10FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pittsburgh Panthers will be highly motivated for a win when they hit the court Monday night. They'll host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who are one of the most overrated teams in the country in my opinion.
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Pitt will be looking to bounce back from its 69-79 loss at Marquette on Saturday. It had been playing very well prior to that contest, winning seven of its previous eight with its only loss coming at Louisville 61-64. It also wants revenge on the Fighting Irish after losing each of its last four meetings in this series.
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Notre Dame clearly isn't as good as its 20-6 record would indicate. It has played three overtime games in its last five contests, winning all three, which includes two victories over lowly DePaul. It lost the other two on the road via blowout to Syracuse (47-63) and Providence (54-71). The Fighting Irish will be exposed on the road once again tonight against a superior Panthers squad.
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The Fighting Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Notre Dame is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following a S.U. loss. The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Pittsburgh Monday.
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Kansas State -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Wildcats won the season's first meeting by just one point, but that game was on the road. They are a different team at home where they are 13-1 on the season and have won 13 straight against unranked visitors. West Virginia, meanwhile, is 0-9 in its last nine games against ranked opponents. K-State is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite or pickem this season and has won these games by an average of 21.6 points. The Wildcats are also on a 13-3 ATS run in home games following a home blowout win of 20 points or more. They have won by an average of 20.2 points in this situation. Take K-State.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Georgia State -1.5 over WILLIAM & MARY: the panthers are off an impressive 18 point road win at George mason, while the tribe was beating up on 3-23 ODU over the weekend. Both teams are pretty even on offense, but a solid edge goes to the Panthers on defense, where they are 165th in points allowed, while the Tribe is 225th. The Favorite is 4-1 ATS the last 5 and Georgia State has won the last 3 SU. We also note that the Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, while the Tribe 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Look for the Panthers to take this important game late.
Rutgers/ Villanova Under 131: The Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, but that just won't happen in this one. Rutgers comes in struggling at the offensive end of the floor right now as they have averaged just 57.9 ppg in their last 7 games and they have averaged 62.9 ppg on the road this year. Villanova is not a superb defensive team, but they have been very good at that end of the floor of late, allowing just 59.2 ppg on 39.2% shooting in their last 5 games. Offensive consistency has been a problem for the Cats this year as they have scored 60 or less in 3 of their last 6 games. The Rutgers defense has been pretty solid of late, allowing just 65.8 ppg in their last 6 games. both teams are high turnover teams and neither team is really an uptempo team. That should keep this game in the lower 120's.
Rocketman
Nashville @ Colorado
Play: Nashville -116
The Nashville Predators travel to Colorado to take on the Avalanche on Monday afternoon. Nashville is allowing only 1.9 goals per game overall this year and 1.6 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Colorado is allowing 3.6 goals per game their past five games overall. Nashville is 8-0 the past 3 years overall vs Colorado including 4-0 at Colorado. Nashville is 12-3 last 15 games against the Northwest. Nashville is 21-7 last 28 games against a team with a losing record. Colorado is 1-6 last 7 games when playing on one days rest. Nashville has won 11 of the past 12 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Nashville today!
Brandon Lee
Kansas State -10½
West Virginia comes into this matchup having won 4 of 5 overall, but that one loss was a 20-point defeat at Baylor. The same Baylor team that Kansas State just crushed by 20-points at home on Saturday. The Mountaineers are simply not a very good team. Their six conference wins have all come against Texas, TCU and Texas Tech, who are a combined 6-30 in the Big 12.
West Virginia is a miserable 5-9 on the road this season and will be going up against a Kansas State team that is 13-1 on their home floor. The Wildcats are outscoring opponents by 18 ppg at Fred Bramlage Coliseum. Kansas State went into West Virginia and beat the Mountaineers 65-64 earlier this season, which can't be overlooked. The Wildcats lost by 4-points at home to Kansas and 21-points on the road.They lost by 6-points at Iowa State and later beat the Cyclones by 9 at home. There's no doubt Kansas State can cover this large spread tonight. Lay the Points!
Ian Cameron
Carolina at Montreal
Play: Carolina
Carolina has already proven its worth on the road this season with a 6-2 record. The Hurricanes haven’t played since a 3-1 home win against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday night so they should have plenty of energy for this contest. Jeff Skinner’s absence for Carolina due to an upper body injury is a blow for this team as he is one of the team leaders in goals and points but Carolina has more than enough talent with Eric and Jordan Staal, Alex Semin and Jiri Tlusty who have all contributed offensively in recent weeks to make up for Skinner’s absence. Carolina’s defense is also dealing with to Tim Gleason and Joni Pitkanen but the Hurricanes have shown an ability to win games without them to this point. Carolina has won six of its last eight games and is playing with great confidence. The Hurricanes should own a massive edge in net tonight with Cam Ward against Montreal’s Peter Budaj who earned his first win of the season the other night against Philadelphia – worth noting that Budaj only faced 19 shots in that game. Ward is 4-0-1 in his last five starts with a .927 save percentage after starting the season 1-3-1 and Carolina’s edge in between the pipes tonight should be a major factor.
The Hurricanes have proven they can still win games despite their personnel losses and with the Ward vs. Budaj matchup in net – which should be to Carolina’s advantage – the Hurricanes are definitely worth a wager as small underdogs.
Harry Bondi
NOTRE DAME (+10) over Pittsburgh
Both teams are coming off loses on Saturday. Pittsburgh battled Marquette before losing on the road but Notre Dame was embarrassed by lowly Providence in a game that they trailed by as many as 24 points. We expect the Irish to bounce back big tonight against a team that they match up well against. Notre Dame has won and covered four straight over Pittsburgh and the Panthers are wrapping up a brutal stretch in which they have played five ranked opponents in their last six games. Ten is too big a number for Pitt to be laying against a team coming off its worst performance of the year and who has owned them the last few years. Take ND plus the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Villanova -10
In this Big East matchup, we favor the value accorded the visiting Scarlet Knights. It is a battle of two teams clearly headed in opposite directions. In the two previous seasons, 12th year Villanova HC Wright was making the transition out of his four guard lineup, to a more balanced offensive attack. The results have been most rewarding. Following a 13-19 SU season of last, the Wildcats ended the year on a 9-33 ATS slide. This year, however, following Saturday's 70-61 upset victory at UConn, they are 16-10 SU, and 16-6 ATS, including 10-3 ATS in Big East action. Enter a Rutgers team who under third year HC Rice is clearly headed the opposite direction. Following their 75-69 loss at DePaul on Saturday, the Knights are now 13-11 SU, for the season, but just 4-9 SUATS in Big East play. They enter tonight's game on runs of 1-8 SU, 1-6 ATS. Now they must finish the regular season without their top scorer, Carter, whose leg injury has shelved him for the season. However, with the pressure on bubbalicious home standing Wildcats, and each team playing on only two day's rest, we follow a lucrative long term situation that favors double digit Monday dogs in that scenario, along with the knowledge that Big East road teams as dog to -3 are now 44-26 ATS for the season (Rutgers 3-3 ATS in that role).
Hollywood Sports
Hoftstra at Drexel
Play: Under
The books have been hesitant to post Over/Under lines for most college basketball games but they will do so if the game is televised as this one will be. Hofstra (6-20) enters this game following their 57-50 loss to Towson on Saturday and they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total following a loss. The Total was set at 125 for that game which means that Hofstra has now played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total in Colonial Athletic Association play. Now they go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Drexel (10-15) looks to rebound from their 68-62 loss to George Mason as a 3.5-point favorite. The Dragons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. Drexel has also failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. That game against George Mason finished Over the 123.5 Total -- but the Dragons have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against conference opponents. Take advantage of the posted number for this game and take the Under.