Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February, 20

MTi Sports

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers

The Lakers lost 102-90 in Phoenix last night. Kobe Bryant led the Lakers with 32 points, but he also took twice as many shots as any other player. We like the Blazers here. Los Angeles is 0-10 ATS during the regular season when they are off a rod loss in which Kobe Bryant scored at least 30 points.

Vegas Experts

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets are small 4.5 point favorites against Minnesota tonight and after Minnesota’s three straight wins and cover, look for the Timberwolves to come back with a bad performance. Minnesota is coming off a nice win over Philadelphia and the two games prior to that they hit well into the 50% range from the field against Houston and they also had a strong offensive performance in their matchup three games back against Charlotte. Watch as that momentum gets put the a stop tonight as Denver looks to bounce back after coming off back to back losses to Memphis and Dallas. Denver is 3-1 ATS at home against Minnesota over the last three seasons and they will cash another cover tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
Play: Under 208.5

This game fits a nice system that pertains to teams with a total of 190 or more that both have no rest. Denver has played under in 10 of their 15 home games this season and 4 of 5 as a home favorite from -3.5 to -6. The Wolves have played under all 4 times vs teams who allow 99 or more points per game and 3 of 4 vs teams who score 100 or more. Denver may not be looking to run up and down the court after last nights marathon with Okc. The Wolves are not a big scoring team and this one should stay under tonight.

David Chan

Washington @ Phoenix
PICK: Under 200.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

The Wizards are 7-24 overall, including just 3-12 on the road.

They're coming off a 114-100 loss at Utah on Friday.

John Wall had 24-points; Jordan Crawford added 21:

“We weren’t getting back, taking tough shots and not playing defense,” Wall said. “To give up 100 points in three quarters is unnecessary.”

The rest of his team struggled; Nick Young was just 4 of 12; Trevor Booker was 1 of 5 and Chris Singleton was just 2 of 4.

Note that Washington has seen the total go "under" the number in 14 of its last 25 as an underdog.

The Suns are 13-19 and are coming off a 102-90 win over the Lakers last night.

Jared Dudley had a season-high 25-points; Marcin Gortat had 21-points and 15-boards.

Grant Hill had 15-points; Steve Nash contributed 14-dimes.

It's interesting to note that Phoenix has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six vs. poor defensive teams that give up 99 or more points per contest.

I think we can expect a "letdown" from both teams here; the Suns are coming off a satisfying win over the hated Lakers; the Wizards are playing the final game of a five-game trip.

You may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Marc Lawrence

Baylor @ Texas
Pick: Texas -2

Baylor topped Texas, 76-71, in Waco earlier this year but that could prove bad news for the Bears this evening as they’re just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games versus avenging foes, including 1-5 ATS with same-season revenge. And it hasn’t exactly been a picnic for these Bears in Austin as they have won just two of 18 on the SU scoreboard since 1994. Strong history, indeed, but we’ve ‘bearly’ scratched the surface. Did you know that in those 18 contests at the Frank Erwin Center, the ‘Horns have been installed as double-digit chalk 15 times – and have never laid less than 7.5 points. Talk about value! That is certainly the case tonight. Hook 'em Horns. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas.

Jim Feist

Portland Trailblazers vs Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are an iffy proposition at best on the road. They have played better away from home of late, winning at Boston and Toronto, but losing at New York. The Lakers played Sunday night at Phoenix and again showed why they are not a very good bet on the road. Still, when they come home they are still tough. On the road the Lakers are 4-11 ATS, but at home they are 10-5 ATS. Tonight the Lakers host Portland. The Blazers beat LA back in Portland on January 5, 107-96. But, like the Lakers, Portland isn't too good on the road, covering just six of 15. You have to find spots to play on this Laker team and at home in this position is about as good as it gets. Take the Lakers on Monday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Ottawa +100 over N.Y. ISLANDERS

For teams in playoff contention, every game from here on out has added significance. The Islanders have a game in hand on the Maple Leafs and two games in hand on the Jets. Those are the two teams they're going to have to leapfrog over to reach the dance and it could happen, as they're just six points behind each. That said, the Islanders are the third lowest scoring team in the league with only the Kings and Jackets having scored less. Over their last seven games, the Islanders have scored two or less five times. There's also the possibility that Evgeni Nabokov may not go, as he recovers from the flu. By contrast, the Senators are one of the highest scoring teams. They've lit the lamp 10 times in their past two games, beating the defensive minded Panthers and Lightning by scores of 4-0 and 6-2 respectively. Ottawa is four points ahead of the Leafs and Jets and could add some much needed distance here. We catch a healthy Sens club at even money, with a spring in their step and well-rested after having five full days rest. Play: Ottawa +100 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

DePaul +210/+5½ over ST. JOHN'S

Prior to beating UCLA on Saturday by three, the Johnnies' last win was in DePaul by six points on Feb 1. The Blue Demons have lost six of seven and 10 of 11. Their last win was over Rutgers by five points. Why then, is St, John's just a 5½-point favorite over a seemingly reeling and weak club? The reason is that the Johnnies are a weak club too and laying points with teams of this calibre seldom works out well. Besides, the Blue Demons aren't as bad as perceived. They had Louisville on the ropes on Saturday in a game they eventaully lost in OT. They can score, they get solid guard play and they'll face a very erratic St. John's team that is basically down to a six-man rotation. The Blue Demons are a team to watch out for next season, as all those talented sophomores become juniors. In this ESPN featured game, the Blue Demons get a litle redemption and end their funk. Definite upset possibility. Play: DePaul +210 (Risking 1 unit) Play: DePaul +5½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1).

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +6 over PHOENIX

The Lakers/Suns game was the last game on the board yesterday. The Lakers closed as a 3½-point choice and all those waiting to close out parlays were stunned to see the Suns score 63 in the first half and lead by 27. Game, set, match. After blowing away the heavily bet Lakers, the Suns now play a team that rarely gets bet and they're just a six-point favorite. One must consider “situational betting” at all times. Phoenix is coming off back-to-back games against the Lakers. They'll play their third game in four days and fifth game in seven days. The Wizards are never featured anywhere. We're not even sure if their games are televised anymore. This is the least talked about team in the Association. However, they're playing much better under new coach, Randy Wittman. JaVale McGee and John Wall are dynamic players that make hi-lite film plays on a regular basis. Nonetheless, it's hard to get too excited about this team until guys such as McGee, Nick Young and Jordan Crawford figure out that a 20-point, 0-assist performance in which they give up 115 points doesn't constitute a "good" night. Randy Wittman is changing that and in this favorable situation, expect a less-than-average Suns team to be semi-interested at best. Play: Washington +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

NEW YORK -9½ over New Jersey

Rarely are we comfortable laying such a big number but this one calls for it. On the surface, the Nets look more appealing taking back these big points than the Knicks do spotting it. We know better. First off, the Knicks are very likely to get back Carmelo Anthony tonight. Tyson Chandler returned yesterday and played 36 minutes. Those are two impact players. Secondly, the Knicks are hot and the Gardens is once again electrifying. When you compile all the positives in New York right now and then match up against these Nets, the task at hand seems difficult at best. The Nets played on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and now this one. That's three games in consecutive nights and their fifth game since last Wednesday. What makes this assignment even more trying is that all of those games were close with biggest margin of defeat being seven points. Now Melo joins Chandler in playing with the NBA's newest sensation against a team running purely on fumes. Make room on the bandwagon today because we’re purchasing a fare. Play: New York -9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

GOLDEN STATE +127 over L.A. Clippers

The NBA opened on Christmas Day with five featured games on television and a huge audience to go with it. One of those games was this matchup, the Clippers at Golden State. The Clip Joint came in as a highly hyped team and a six-point favorite. The entire betting world was on them and they didn't disappoint, blowing out the Warriors by 19. Fast forward to today and not much has changed. The Clippers hype was warranted, as they own one of the best records in the league. The Warriors have dropped three straight and they're just a game ahead of Sacramento for last place in the Pacific. All that being the case, can someone explain why the Clippers are 3-points less of a favourite than they were for the opener? That raises some red flags from our desks. What we know is that the Warriors last three losses were to Portland, Memphis and Oklahoma City. They lost by a point to Memphis and two points to Portland. The games against the Grzzlies and Thunder were on the road. Prior to that, Golden State had won three in a row. Since that opening day defeat, the Warriors are a different team. They have home wins over Chicago, Miami and Portland, not to mention a slew of close calls. The line says they can compete here and we're in total agreement Play: Golden State +127 (Risking 2 units).

Bryan Power

Boston @ Dallas
PICK: Dallas -6

Having seen their six-game win streak snapped yday afternoon in MSG by Jeremy Lin & the Knicks, look for the Mavs to get back on track Monday against the equally unrested Celtics. Quite simply, Boston, one of the league's oldest squads, is a team you don't want to get caught backing in the second game of back to backs. They've dropped two in a row in that scenario, including a double digit road loss to Toronto where they scored only 74 points. The C's have already lost at home to Dallas this season, 90-85, last month. It was their third loss in a row to the Mavericks. Look for Dallas to make it four straight tonight.

David Banks

Baylor / Texas Over

The Presidents Day college hoops slate closes out in the Lone Star State for a good ol southern tussle in the Big 12 between the Baylor Bears (22-5, 8-12 ATS) and Texas Longhorns (17-10, 8-13-1 ATS); tip-off from Austin is set to go live on ESPN starting at 9:00 ET.

The Baylor Bears were undefeated in Big 12 play if you took the four games they played against the Missouri Tigers and Kansas Jayhawks out of the equation (0-4, 0-4 ATS). That was until Head Coach Scott Drews kids dropped a heartbreaker at home on Saturday against the Kansas State Wildcats; a team they beat outright as 3.5-point underdogs in their trip to the Little Apple back in early January. The 57-56 outright defeat as 7.5-point chalk dropped the Bears to 9-5 SU within the conference with games still to go against the Horns, Sooners, Red Raiders, and Cyclones; they must come out on top tonight and topple Iowa State in their regular season finale to at the very least guarantee a third place showing in the conference. Baylors won eight of its 10 road games on the year (4-6 ATS) with the pair of losses coming against aforementioned Mizzou and KU.

Texas most recently had its four-game win streak snapped on Saturday in Stillwater where it fell by a 90-78 final count as four-point favorites against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Like Baylor, the Longhorns possess no major wins over teams ranked higher than them in the Big 12 standings. In fact, UT checks in just 1-6 SU & 3-3-1 ATS versus Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor this season. A win here would be huge for them in the eyes of the selection committee, but even if it occurs, it still wont be enough to guarantee Head Coach Rick Barnes kids an invite to the Big Dance. That said; Texas possesses a player JCovan Brown - of the mold of Kemba Walker from the defending champion UCONN Huskies. If Texas does somehow manage to go to the NCAA Tourney, he could singlehandedly help lead the Horns to a couple upsets. For that possibility to even be remotely possible, the Horns must build upon their 14-2 SU & 4-6-1 ATS records as a host in tonights spot.

Baylor took these teams first meeting of the 2011-12 season in Waco by a 76-71 final tally, but Texas came out the pointspread victor by sticking within the closing seven-point spread. Though the Bears check in a woeful 8-22 ATS versus the L/30 Big 12 opponents theyve faced, theyre 5-2 ATS in these rivals L/7 overall meetings as well as 3-2 SU & ATS the L/5 times they went off the board dogged by four points or less. Texas checks in 4-9-1 ATS over the course of its L/14 home games, but also stands 4-1-1 ATS the L/6 times it battled a +.600 opponent. These in-state rivals have played to the over in eight of their L/11 overall confrontations.

WUNDERDOG

Memphis at Houston
Pick: Under 187

The Houston Rockets have a much different approach than we saw from this team at the end of last season. Houston not only scored 100+ points a lot, over their last 19 games from a year ago they scored 110 or more in 10 of the 19, a mark they achieved just one time the entire season and that was vs. Washington. Memphis has played three straight games where both teams reached the century mark, but those were vs. more up-tempo offenses, and their game prior to that was vs. Memphis where just 176 total points were scored. That performance was more indicative of what we will see here tonight, as the Grizzlies are 9-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 as a road dog. Houston is much different than a year ago, and is now 14-5 to the UNDER in their last 19 home games, and is also 5-0 to the UNDER off no rest. This series has an elongated history of falling shy of the total when playing in Houston, with a 17-5 mark to the UNDER in the last 22 here. Play the UNDER.

NHL Predictions

Washington Capitals -117

The Capitals will probably have a lot of money come in on them, but for good reasons. The Capitals are fighting for a playoff spot sitting just on the outside, and can actually move into a playoff spot with a win. Washington has Mike Green back in the lineup, who can always make a difference back there. The Hurricanes are without Cam Ward and Tuomo Ruutu, and may be without Chad Larose again tonight. With Ward out Justin Peters will get the start. Peters is 1-3 this season with a 3.65 GAA. Washington has taken 3 of the 4 meetings between these two teams this season (going 1-1 in Carolina), and has taken 8 of their last 10 versus the Hurricanes which includes 5 of the last 6 in Carolina. Although I don't think this is a no-brainer pick with the way the Capitals have played all season long, I do think they come out hard tonight and get the Hurricanes who are coming off a road loss and 5 of their last 7 on the road. The Caps should create enough offense to get a few by Peters and win tonight.

Rocketman

Baylor @ Texas
Play: Texas -2

Baylor is 1-5 ATS in February this year. Baylor is 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS since 1997 in a road game when the total is 135 to 139 1/2. Texas is 14-2 SU at home this year where they are allowing only 57.7 points per game. Texas is 12-2 SU at home vs Baylor since 1997. Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. Big 12. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Longhorns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Longhorns are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Longhorns are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!