Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 21,2011

Marc Lawrence

Houston at Memphis
Prediction: Memphis

The Tigers return home after being tripped up at Rice Saturday with revenge on their minds from being knocked out of last year's CUSA tourney by the Cougars. With Memphis a sterling 11-3 ATS in games when avenging a league tournament loss, look for the Tigers to improve to 5-2 ATS in this series here this evening.

Lenny Del Genio

Florida Panthers at New York Islanders
Prediction: New York Islanders

The Islanders lost to the Panthers 4-1 here in Uniondale back in November, but return a perfect 7-0 straight up when seeking revenge for a home loss of more than two goals the last two seasons. New York is playing much better now than they were then with wins in five of their last six games to up their February record to 7-3 SU overall. Florida is 2-10 SU off a road win and has not won three consecutive away games since November 2009. Take NY Islanders.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Valparaiso at WI-Green Bay

Wisconsin Green Bay returns home Monday riding an unfathomable five-game losing streak with three of those defeats coming by two points or less. They've already beaten Valpo once this season, 63-61 on the road as eight-point dogs, and catch the Crusaders off a home win, a situation they are just 5-20 ATS in. The Phoenix is 8-2 ATS off BB SU losses.

Play on: WI-Green Bay

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Kansas Jayhawks -17

With a mentally and physically draining home loss to Texas A&M still hanging over the head of Oklahoma State, the Cowboys won't be ready for arguably the best team in the country tonight. Kansas has been shredding its opponents in Lawrence. Its last 4 home wins have come by 24, 17, 23 and 26 points respectively. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has been getting spanked away from home. The Cowboys have losses at Texas A&M, Baylor and Texas by 23, 19 and 18 points respectively. In addition, Oklahoma State leading scorer Marshall Moses is questionable. It was discovered that he has the flu, which really limited him against A&M Saturday. It greatly diminishes Okie State's chances without him at 100 percent. Kansas lost the last time these teams faced off. Plus, Texas endured its first Big 12 loss Saturday, which perhaps opens the door for Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title. Either way, these two factors assure us that the Jayhawks will not be overlooking the Cowboys tonight. Lay the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Central Florida vs. UTEP
Play: UTEP -7.5

Both teams have solid under angles in play today. UTEP has gone under in 8 of their last 9 home games, all 5 times vs winning teams in the second half and 4 of 5 vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game. They have also gone under 10 of 12 times when favored. Central Florida has played under 19 of 27 times off a conference loss, 3 of 4 with 1 or less day of rest and 8 of 12 after scoring 60 or less. Both games here have gone under most recently. Look for this one to follow suit today.

BEN BURNS

Blackhawks @ Blues
PICK: Under 5.5

The Hawks earned an important two points yesterday, knocking off the Penguins by a score of 3-2, in a shootout. Including that result, the "under" is now 5-2 their last seven games. It should also be noted that the defending champs have also seen the "under" go 7-2 (22-10-2 the past few seasons) after having played their previous three games at home. Additionally, note that the "under" is 7-4 when the Hawks have played the second of back to back games.

Unlike their guests, the Blues are off a very high-scoring game. They defeated Anaheim by a 9-4 score on Saturday. That's not exactly "normal" for them though, as their previous three games all fell below the total. They had scores of 3-1, 3-2 and 3-0. St. Louis doesn't typically follow up a big offensive performance with another one in its next game, either. In fact, we find the "under" at 9-4-1 the last 14 times that the Blues had scored four or more goals in their previous game.

These teams last met on 12/28. That game actually had an O/U line of 5 (laying heavy 'juice' on the 'over') when it came out. However, most shops moved to 5.5 and "under" bettors were forced to lay from -120 to -130, to play the game to finish below the total. The final score was 3-1. Today's line is again 5.5. Only this time, we don't have to lay any extra juice to get it. In fact, as of this writing, at several shops, we're the ones getting "plus money" back in return. I feel that provides us with solid value. Consider the Under

DAVID CHAN

Chicago Blackhawks @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

I bet value where I see it and look for the visiting Blackhawks to hand a loss to the home side.

The Blues are in 13th in the West right now and have won three straight; they are three points behind the Blackhawks who are just two points back of the eighth spot.

Chicago improved to 2-1 under assistant Mike Haviland after a 3-2 shootout victory over Pittsburgh yesterday:

“We’ve got to be confident we can find a way to pull it out,” Jonathan Toews said.

Chicago plays with "revenge" here after a 3-1 loss to the Blues on December 28th (note though that St. Louis is 7-9 [-3.6 units] vs. division opponents).

Expect the defending Champs to continue their push towards a playoff spot with a win this afternoon!

Ray Monohan

Kent State vs. Western Michigan
Play: Kent State Pk

A nice matchup on tap tonight at the Read Fieldhouse in Kalamazoo, MI. Both teams need to win this game for their hopes of winning the MAC regular-season championship. I like the line value on this play with Kent State as a PK. They should essentially be road favorites with a better 17-9 record. They would probably be a 1-2 point favorite of not for their 2 recent losses. The difference maker in this one will be Flashes PG Michael Porrini. He can dictate the pace, the tempo, and will also guard the opponents best player most nights. The Broncos don`t have this type of threat tonight. Some trends I like for this one include the Golden Flashes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Broncos are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS -½ +149 over Chicago

The Blue Notes have reeled off three in a row and suddenly they’re back in the playoff picture. They’re just five points behind the reeling Stars for that final playoff spot and they have two games in hand. The Blues come into this game feeling great after dismantling the Ducks 9-3 and after newly acquired Chris Stewart netted a pair. The Blue Notes traded for offense and scoring nine times the game after the trade has to have a very positive impact on the whole team. A win here and the Blues leapfrog over the Jackets and they’ll be just a point behind these Blackhawks. The Blackhawks are lacking something. They have just three wins in their last eight and that came against Edmonton, Minnesota and in a crucial game yesterday at home against the Penguins, it took everything they had to win it in OT. They’re the only team that has lost to Dallas in the Stars last nine games. The Blue Notes confidence is high and they and the whole arena will be completely amped up for this one. Blackhawks haven’t been amped all year long. Play: St. Louis -½ +149 (Risking 2 units).

Washington -½ +130 over PITTSBURGH

The Pens are 2-3 in their last five games and took the Blackhawks to OT yesterday before losing it. That’s nice, it really is but this is a team to play against every game until they get some healthy bodies back. They really are hard pressed to score anything, as every offensive threat they have is watching from the rail and Jordan Staal could miss this one too after he took a puck in the face yesterday and did not return. Pittsburgh also returns home from a four-game trip and that’s rarely a favorable spot. The Caps conclude a five game trip here after going 2-2 in the first four. They lost by single goals to red-hot Phoenix and San Jose and beat Anaheim and Buffalo. A 3-2 road-trip is definitely reason for motivation and so is playing the Penguins with a golden opportunity to beat them bad. Play Washington -½ +130 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Kansas Jayhawks -17

The Cowboys have dropped seven in a row on the road and they have not had any success at Kansas as the Cowboys have not won at Allen Fieldhouse since Feb. 8, 1989. This game is a huge mismatch as Kansas leads the nation in field-goal percentage at 52.1, while Oklahoma State is last in the Big 12 at 43.4. The Jayhawks will be up for this game since they have lost two out of the last three meetings between these two teams, but this years Oklahoma State team just does not has the talent to compete. The Pokes are just 13-36-2 against the spread in their last 51 games as a road underdog. Lay the points.

JR O'Donnell

STL / CHI Over 5.5

We are "Banging" around the ice tonight as the St Louis Blues host the under achieving Stanley Champ "Chi Blackhawks" tonight. Over 5.5 is the sharp play here guys as the Oster has been and will stay hot on the Ice.... The New & Improved version of the Blues are 3-0 the last 3 and looking to hang up #4, they are flying high and scoring big time as of late....

How about a 9-3 pounding of Anaheim Saturday night... These St Louie Blues have a new gunner in former #1 pick Erik Johnson over from the Avs. The net minder Ty Conklin has been shelled of late and tonight he will be pounded again. The Hawks are a 75% Over "PROP" 12-4 the last 16 games as a road underdog + Over checks in @ 5-1 in St Louie Blues last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

WUNDERDOG

Western Carolina at N C Greensboro
Pick: Western Carolina -3.5

The NC Greensboro Spartans began the season wondering if they could even find a win. They were sitting at 0-15 before finally notching a win by a single point at Appalachian State. It helped them catch lightning in a bottle propelling them to a 4-1 stretch over five games, but they have reverted back to what they were - a bad team. The Spartans have since gone 1-5 with the average loss by 10 points per game. Western Carolina opened 4-10 with a schedule laden with power conference teams, but have since gone 11-3 and have been red-hot, winning each of their last six. Greensboro has one of the worst home dog marks in the country standing in at 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36. The Catamounts are riding high right now, adding to the Spartans' home woes. I'm playing Western Carolina in this one.

Jack Jones

Western Michigan -1

Western Michigan is showing solid value Monday as a mere 1-point home favorite over Kent State. The Broncos sit atop the MAC West division and are 15-10 on the season. WMU has been a dominant team at home all year, going 9-3 as hosts. The Broncos have reeled off three straight victories coming into this contest which sets them up for a proven system. Western Michigan is 27-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997.

Kent State has struggled on the road all season, going just 5-8 away from home. The home team has absolutely dominated this series. The home team is 8-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between the Broncos and Flashes. There's no question that WMU has revenge in mind after dropping four straight to Kent State, including a 1-point loss in their last meeting. This team has won five of their last six overall and the Broncos are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Bet Western Michigan Monday.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Valparaiso -1

It may be the last home game for the Wisconsin-Green Bay seniors, but this superior Valpo team appears poised to spoil the party. Green Bay has lost 5 in a row, and it gets no easier tonight. You see, the Crusaders will be hungry to avenge last month's loss to the Phoenix. The Crusaders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Phoenix are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Plays on road teams as an favorite or pick (VALPARAISO) - out to avenge a loss to an opponent, playing with one or less days rest, are 92-47 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 6.2 points. Take Valpo.