SPORTS WAGERS
Columbus +136 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins return home tonight from a successful but tough six-game trip that saw them go 4-2 and was capped off with a 7-3 victory in Dallas on Saturday night. That resounding win in Dallas sticks out and has them overpriced here. The B’s have not been dominating games. A close look at their analytic numbers reveals a team that gets outshot and out-chanced more often than they outshoot and out-chance the opposition. Boston ranks 25th in Corsi against, which puts them just ahead of Edmonton. They rank 13th in Corsi for. Out of the 30 teams in the NHL, Boston’s strength of schedule ranks 29th. Fortunately for the B’s, they have an unusually strong road record of 20-10 otherwise we’d be discussing a team that would be a longshot to make the playoffs. At TD Gardens, Boston has 12 wins in 29 games. The last time the Bruins returned from a trip that took them further than the Eastern coast like this one did, they played Nashville and it was perhaps Boston’s most lethargic game of the season. They lost 3-2 to the Preds but were outshot 33-17 and out-chanced 23-6. We say no thank you to the Bruins at this price under positive circumstances but this one is not under those conditions.
The Jackets continue to do what they always do. Columbus has had strong stretch runs for years and this year is no different. The Jackets have picked up points in nine of their past 11 games. They are also one of the very few teams to defeat the Ducks this month. While the B’s strength of schedule ranks 29th in the NHL, the Jackets SOS is ranked fourth. Columbus is coming off a 4-0 loss to Buffalo but they fired away 38 shots on net and simply ran into a goaltender that played much better than its own. Prior to that loss, Columbus picked up points in six straight games. Just like they always are this time of year, the Jackets are a live pooch and this is a good situational spot for them too.
San Jose -101 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. Our recommendation is to wait on this one because we suspect a better line will be available later in the day. We’ll update it then but the Sharkies will certainly be on our slate.
Sometimes the line will dictate the play and that is the case here. St. Louis is red-hot with five victories in a row that include wins over Tampa Bay, Florida and Los Angeles among others. The return of Jaden Schwartz from a long injury has sparked the Blue Notes in a big way. The Blues have just nine regulation losses at home this season in 32 games so they have been an extremely difficult out at the Scottrade Center. St. Louis outshot the Coyotes, 40-22 in their last game and scored six times. Despite their great form, home record and current five game winning streak, the oddsmakers have made the Blues a very small favorite here and we have to wonder why. This is a case of “looks too good to be true”.
The Sharkies do have one of the best road records in the NHL but they will play their fourth straight on the road here after being pasted in Carolina on Friday, 5-2. In other words, the small price to pay to back the Blues here keeps looking better but when something does not smell right, it raises red flags. The most compelling argument here is what the most respected sports book on the market is telling us. Pinny has the Blue Notes -½ +160 while the Sharks are taking back a half puck and spotting -177. Nobody in their right mind is going to play San Jose +½ -177 and we won’t either. However, the line strongly suggests that the Sharks will not lose this game in regulation and it’s for that exact reason that we are going endorse them here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Iowa State +6 over WEST VIRGINIA
The Mountaineers’ sexy home record of 11-2 and their #10 ranking gives them plenty of market appeal but we’re not buying it. The Mountaineers won their first eight in Morgantown before that streak was snapped by the visiting Longhorns. The Mountaineers would continue on to post an impressive win over Baylor, but two of the other three victories before the next WV loss at home would come against the conference’s worst team in TCU and a marginal Kansas State squad. The Mountaineers most recent loss at home, as a four-point favorite to visiting Oklahoma, was by 14 points and illustrating a seemingly non-existent home court advantage when the chips were down.
West Virginia may have gone to Ames and handed out a loss to the visiting Cyclones but we still don’t believe this team can be trusted regardless of venue. Currently Bob Huggins’ bunch is on a two-game skid while losing three of their last four. Texas and Oklahoma were two of the assailants, along with Kansas rounding off the trifecta. West Virginia’s only win during their last four games came against the aforementioned and lowly Horned Frogs. To conclude our point, West Virginia does not appear to be deserving of a #10 ranking, as they struggle mightily against good teams even when they are favored. To begin the season, the Mountaineers went 9-1 straight up but all nine victories were against marshamallows. When they faced a formidable opponent in Virginia in their seventh game of the season, the Mountaineers got by buried by 16 points. The next half decent team they would play would be K-State in game #11 and they would lose that one too. This is a Mountaineers bunch that is unpredictable. They did look a stallion in the initial stages of conference play, typified by an impressive win at home against Kansas in early January. However like in horse racing, the true colors of the participants are revealed down the back stretch. West Virginia has gone 5-6 in their last 11 while Kansas has won seven in a row. Think of West Virginia as a false-favorite in a mid-stakes card on a sunny afternoon at the racetrack. At first, WV will run with the rest of the pack but the true thoroughbreds typically make their move at the final turn and this is the turn where teams like West Virginia begin to fade.
Iowa State is laboring a bit too but they’re an extremely battle tested bunch that is ranked #13 in the country despite being just 8-6 in conference play. Three of the Cyclones six losses in conference play have come in OT including the last two. The three other losses by ISU in conference play were all by five points or less so we could easily be discussing a Cyclones team that is 14-0 in conference play because that’s how close they’ve been to running the table. There is one last difference between ISU and WVU too; the Cyclones are not spotting points.
Brandon Lee
Lakers vs. Bucks
Play: Over 209½
I don't expect either team to be all that interested in playing defense in this one, which should have this game flying over the total. The Lakers a lone give up 109.2 ppg on the road and have been even worse than that of late. LA just gave up 119 to the Spurs and 126 to Bulls in their first two games back and will be facing a Bucks team that just scored 117 at Atlanta. The Lakers have also been playing well offensively, scoring 111 or more in 3 straight and the Bucks are far from a dominant defensive team. Milwaukee allows 102.9 ppg and has seen the OVER cash in 5 of their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. OVER is also 4-1 in the Lakers last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games.
AJ Penny
Iona / Siena Under 158
The Iona Gaels are shooting 45.0% while attempting 61.2 shots per game. The Gaels shooting percentages include 70.9% for free throw percentage and 36.2% for three point percentage so far this season. On the road, the Gaels are averaging 79.0 scoring, and holding teams to 76.2 points scored on defense. The Under is 4-1 in Iona's last 5 overall, 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Metro Atlantic Athletic and 23-6-1 in the Gaels' last 30 Monday games. The Siena Saints are shooting 47.0% while attempting 58.1 shots per game. The Saints shooting percentages include 72.5% for free throw percentage and 38.6% for three point percentage so far this season. At home the Saints are averaging 80.2 scoring, and holding teams to 67.8 points scored on defense. The Under is 3-0-1 in Siena's last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games and 5-2 in the Saints' last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Head to Head the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Siena.
Scott Rickenbach
Youngstown State vs. Wisc-Milwaukee
Play: Youngstown State +17
The Panthers, of course, are the better team and are at home here. However, that doesn't mean the spread is in line with where it should be. In my opinion there is significant value with the big dog here as Wisconsin-Milwaukee is in a clear lookahead spot here. The Panthers have the #1 team in the Horizon League set to visit Milwaukee on Friday. That means it will be hard for UWM to be fully focused on a Penguins team that is 10-18 on the season and is a team that the Panthers already beat by 16 points earlier this season. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is off of a win Saturday but they had lost 4 of their prior 5 games. Youngstown State has struggled recently but has struggled to get covers lately but has put 85 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. That type of offensive production makes for a dangerous dog in a spot like this and the Penguins just put up 90 points and shot 54% from the field in Saturday's game at UWGB. Youngstown State is only 3-5 in their past 8 games but only two of the games were defeats by a margin greater than 17 points. The Penguins are looking to improve to 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 15.5 to 18 points the past three seasons. The Panthers are an ugly 1-7 ATS in home games this season and have their sights set on Valparaiso up next.
Jack Jones
Detroit Pistons +9
The Detroit Pistons are coming off a home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans where they allowed Anthony Davis to score 59 points. That result has them undervalued coming into this game with the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers come in overvalued off their 115-92 blowout win at Oklahoma City on Sunday. The betting public will be quick to jump on the Cavs now, but this certainly has the makings of a letdown spot off that big win over the Thunder.
Detroit is 17-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Cleveland is 12-29 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 6-15-2 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Dave Price
Phoenix Suns +15.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are in a tough spot mentally here. They are coming off a heartbreaking 3-point home loss to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday, and now they won't be able to get up for the Phoenix Suns at home tonight. Look for the Clippers to suffer a hangover effect that won't have them playing well enough to put away the Suns by 16 or more points. The Suns have remained competitive here of late with each of their last 8 losses coming by 16 points or less. That includes an 8-point loss to the Warriors as 16-point dogs and a 7-point loss to the Spurs as 13.5-point dogs.
Harry Bondi
MINNESOTA (+5) over Boston
Last night we took advantage of a scheduling quirk and went against a Utah Jazz team that we knew would run out of gas and we see a similar scenario tonight with the Celtics. Boston has received a ton of much-deserved hype over the last few weeks as a sleeper team in the Eastern Conference, but we think the pointspread has caught up to them tonight as they are tagged as a road favorite. Not only are the C's 1-3 ATS this year when listed as a road chalk in this range, but tonight they play their third road game in four nights, with the first two coming in the high altitude of Denver and Utah. The T-Wolves have lost two straight since the All-Star break so you can expect a fully focused effort here, especially since they are in revenge mode after getting routed at Boston, 113-99, back in December. The Celtics shot a blistering 52% from the floor in that game and we don't see a similar hot shooting night here from a young team that will have tired legs. Take the home dog!
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play winner is Texas over Kansas State.
Both teams slumping a bit, as both enter play tonight coming off a loss, and both have dropped 3 of their last 4 straight up.
Prefer to side with the visitors here though, as Texas has had K-State's number lately, taking 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 series meetings overall.
Included is a 60-57 home win in January in a game the 'Horns were favored by -5 1/2 points in.
This is the time of the year where Shaka Smart's team usually makes a move, and I will put my trust in Shaka to get his charges in the winner's circle tonight at Kansas State.
3* TEXAS
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is a total out of the Big 12, as I turn to a game involving my favorite team to monitor this season - West Virginia. Normally I've played a side in games involving the Mountaineers. Tonight I'm on the Under, as I think this has the makings of a physical battle that will stay low.
Consecutive losses have ruined West Virginia's Big 12 title hopes, now it has to worry about getting back on track to close the season healthy. And one of those ways is to get back to what triggered the succes it has seen this season - its defense.
Besides, it's been poor shooting and rebounding that led to their demise over the weekend. And with the Mountaineers back on the court immediately this week, I don't know if they've have enough time to recover and prepare for the Cyclones.
At least not offensively.
West Virginia is ailing, and will miss some scoring punch. Tonight it has to use defense to stifle the dangerous 'Clones.
Iowa State has lost four of seven, but does come in after Saturday's 92-83 home win over TCU. Playing at West Virginia is much different, and will be a lot tougher. The Cyclones are averaging 78.1 points while going 4-5 away from home compared to 86.2 in winning 12 of 14 at Hilton Coliseum. Tonight they take on a West Virginia team that leads the conference in scoring defense (66.0) and turnover margin (plus-4.3).
Let's play this one Under.
5* Iowa St/West Virginia Under
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is Iona plus the basket at Siena.
The Saints searching for their 20th win of the season, and do bring a 3 game win and cover streak into this home game. One of the wins was a hard-fought 81-78 upset at Iona on the 13th.
I like the Gaels to even the score tonight, as Iona has a little momentum of their own after avenging an earlier season loss to Monmouth on Friday night in New Jersey.
Iona stands at 6-1 both straight up and against the spread their last 7 games, with that lone blemish coming against the Saints.
Prior to that loss on the 13th to Siena, Iona had won the previous 7 series meetings straight up.
The Saints quest for win #20 will have to wait a night.
Take the Gaels as the small road dog.
4* IONA
Marc Lawrence
Virginia at Miami
Play: Miami
Edges - Hurricanes: 2-0 SUATS in this series with same season loss revenge; and 4-1 SUATS versus greater than .800 opponents this season, including 2-0 SUATS home. Cavaliers: 2-5 ATS after NC State; and 6-14-1 ATS away before North Carolina, including 2-10 ATS versus avenging foe. The clincher is the fact that UM head coach Jim Larranaga is 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS at home in games off a loss of 24 or more points in his career, including 5-0 SUATS with teams with a greater than .520 win percentage. With Larranaga off his worst conference loss with the Hurricanes, a 96-71 defeat at North Carolina this past Saturday.
Goodfella
Pistons / Cavs Over 103.5 1st Half
I have this 1st half landing on at least 105 points. The Pistons will be looking to push pace vs this Cavs club who are playing in a back to back spot tonight. Of course the Cavs prefer to play fast(er) pace and play their best ball when they push pace. Their offense has improved since Coach Lue took over with his up tempo style. Value for me here on the 1st Half going OVER at this number and I am on the 1st Half going OVER 103.5 this evening.
Vegas Butcher
Miami Heat -2.5
Miami Heat should be getting Dwayne Wade back today, as he went through the full shoot-around in the morning. On the other side, the Pacers will be without CJ Miles (doubtful) and potentially without George Hill (questionable, with a sprained elbow). With Stuckey already out, that could be three key scorers out at one time for Indy, and at the very least two. Playing on a b2b and 3in4, while coming off two hard-fought wins @ OKC and @ ORL, this is a let-down spot for the Pacers. They are only 3-7 ATS in b2b spots this year. Their depth will be severely depleted in this one and if Hill misses the game, I just don’t see them scoring enough to stay with the Heat. Pacers are a mediocre rebounding team and they’re already at a disadvantage, facing a guy like Whiteside tonight. In addition, the Heat rank 4th in defensive FT-rate allowed, meaning they rarely give up ‘free’ points to their opponent at the charity stripe. Pacers will need to score from the field tonight in order to win the game, and being in a fatigue spot while missing a number of offensive pieces, greatly reduces their chances of doing just that. Miami with a well-rested Wade should come away with a home victory in this one.
SPS Investors
Iowa St. vs. West Virginia
Pick: Iowa St.
This is an intriguing matchup between two struggling teams who will no doubt be desperate for a win in this contest. The Cyclones come into Morgantown having alternated wins and losses over the last three weeks and recently went through and incredibly tough 2-4 stretch which saw them drop considerably in the Big 12 title race. Meanwhile the West Virginia Mountaineers have had struggles of their own, dropping their last 3 of 4 contests with their most recent defeat coming in the form of a 76-62 home loss against the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday. There is no question that both teams will be eager to walk away with a victory and even with this game being played in Morgantown; we believe the advantage has to reside with the visitors in this contest.
The Iowa State Cyclones come into this contest with the 14th ranked offense in the country, averaging over 83 points per game on 50.4% shooting from the field. This also makes them the highest scoring team in the Big 12 this season. The Cyclones continue to be paced by Georges Niang, who ranks second in the league with 19.7 points per game. It's their offense that we believe will carry them in this contest.
This is a big time revenge game for the Cyclones as they were "upset" earlier this season out in Ames. West Virginia was just one of two teams to defeat the Cyclones on their home court this season, which is no easy feat. The Cyclones were destroyed on the boards in that contest, getting out rebounded by a 43-26 margin. They also committed 16 turnovers in that contest which has proven to be strength of this West Virginia defense. As Oklahoma had showed this past Saturday, when West Virginia is not forcing turnovers or rebounding the ball well, they are an extremely beatable team. We expect Iowa State to play much better than the first meeting and utilize the blueprint that Oklahoma laid this past weekend.
The Mountaineers also have some unanswered questions with injuries to Daxter Miles Jr., who is listed as day-to-day with a strained hamstring and Jaysean Paige hurting with a sprained ankle. Paige leads the team with 13.4 points per game with Miles Jr, third with 10.1 per game. IF these two players remain out of the rotation, it completely changes the landscape of this Mountaineers team. Even if both players do make their return in this contest, there is a chance that they could be rusty and we don't believe they will be anywhere near 100%. Losing that kind of production, especially against a high scoring team like ISU, could be too much of a hurdle for them to overcome. Even if the Cyclones fall short of getting their revenge, we believe they can keep this a closely competitive contest and stay within this generous point spread.