Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 22,2010

Tom Freese

Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz

Atlanta is 34-20 overall but they are 13-14 on the road. Shooting Guard Joe Johnson scores 21.6 points a game. Guard Jamal Crawford scores 17.6 points a game. Power Forward Josh Smith scores 15.4 points and 8.6 rebounds a game. Center Al Horford scores 13.9 points and 9.4 rebounds a game. Small Forward Marvin Williams scores 10.2 points a game. Both teams played last night and the rare air of Utah will takes it's toll on the Hawks. Atlanta scores 101.4 points game and they allow 97 points a game. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS their 7 meetings in Utah and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games when playing with no rest. Utah is 36-19 overall and they are 22-7 at home. Power Forward Carlos Boozer scores 19.4 points and 11.2 rebounds a game. Guard Deron Williams scores 18.3 points and 9.9 assists a game. Center Mehmet Okur scores 12.4 points a game. Small Forward Andrei Kirilenko scores 12.5 points a game. Power Forward Paul Millsap scores 11.5 points. The Jazz score 101.9 points a game and they allow 97 points a game. Utah is 15-5-2 ATS their last 22 home games and they are 5-1-1 ATS their 7 games when playing with no rest. PLAY ON UTAH -

Sam Martin

Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz

The Hawks are coming in off a meltdown yesterday where they blew a huge fourth-quarter lead at Golden State, where they eventually lost to the Warriors. Utah is in the opposite spot, coming back from a huge deficit to win in overtime at Portland. Both of these teams come in without rest, but we’ll back the Hawks here. Atlanta should come out hungry after that tough defeat, while Utah has to be in a letdown mode after that thrilling comeback win. Hawks won the first meeting by 13 points, and while an outright win here wouldn’t surprise us, we’ll take the points to be safe.

Play on: Atlanta

VEGAS EXPERTS

West Virginia at Connecticut

Let's take of an early line move that in our opinion is in the wrong direction as we note the Mountaineers of West Virginia are 0-6 ATS when playing only their third game in a week. UConn has beaten WVU five straight times in Storrs and needs this game much worse than does the Mountie as their 16-11 SU mark has them firmly on the outside looking in right now. Take the points.

Play on: Connecticut

Frank Jordan

Oklahoma vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas -22

Oklahoma is .500 on the year at 13-13, can't seem to get much going in the Big 12 with a 4-8 conference record and is just 1-8 on the road. Kansas is doing a little better as they are the number one ranked team, a perfect 17-0 at home, have won 12 in a row and are coming off a 20 point win last time out. With Kansas State looming in a couple of games are the Jayhawks looking ahead and poised to be upset? Not by this Oklahoma team who hasn't been much without Blake Griffin this year look for Kansas to roll by 25 or more points. Play Kansas

JIM FEIST

MILWAUKEE BUCKS / NEW YORK KNICKS
TAKE: UNDER

The Knicks pulled out a big trade that has brought oft-injured Tracy McGrady to Madison Square Garden. McGrady made his Knicks debut on Saturday and despite not have played hardly at all this season, put up 26-points. However, McGrady missed two crucial free throws late in the game that might have sealed a Knicks win and allowed Oklahoma City to eventually force an OT. Still, only time will tell if this trade was a bust for the Knicks. McGrady has pretty much underachieved his entire career that has been plagued with injuries. Meanwhile, the hot Bucks come to town tonight. The Bucks have seen their last two games go UNDER the total and five of the last six go UNDER. The Bucks have held their last two opponents under 88 points and have only given up 100 points or more in two of their last 11 games. It's going to take some time for the Knicks to gel with McGrady and in the meantime it's our feeling that the Knicks will not be scoring many points. Look for the unders here early until McGrady gets his game legs back. Take the Under on Monday.

EZWINNERS

Utah Jazz -5.5

The Jazz and Hawks are both playing the second of back to back games, but this is the third road game in four nights for Atlanta. The Jazz have been very good when playing back to back nights posting a 5-1-1 record against the spread in their last six games with no rest, while the Hawks have struggled in this spot going 0-4 against the spread in their last four chances. Utah will be looking to gain some revenge for their loss earlier in the year at Atlanta and I expect them to do so on their home court tonight where the Hawks are Hawks are just 1-6 against the spread in the last seven visits. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Oklahoma vs. Kansas

The Jayhawks are the nation's number one team for a reason and they come to work to start the week with a (16-5) ATS mark in Monday action and this Big XII series has gone to the home team at a (6-2) ATS rate. The Sooners are just (15-36-3) ATS in their past (54) road contests and Big Game James Patrick's Monday Night College Basketball selection in Big XII Conference action is Kansas Jayhawks.

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(8) West Virginia (21-5, 11-14 ATS) at UConn (16-11, 11-14 ATS)

The Mountaineers, currently third in the Big East, travel to Hartford, Conn., for a key conference matchup with UConn.

After dropping two in a row, West Virginia went to Providence on Wednesday and scored an 88-74 win, cashing as a 7½-point favorite, and then followed it up with Saturday’s 75-63 Saturday win over Seton Hall, barely covering as an 11½-point home chalk. The Mountaineers have been lighting up the scoreboard lately, averaging 82.4 points a game over their last five, more than seven points more than their season average of 75.2.

UConn suffered through a 1-5 stretch (SU and ATS), but have rebounded to win back-to-back road games, including last Monday’s 84-75 upset victory at Villanova as a 9½-point pup. That was followed by Saturday’s 76-58 triumph at Rutgers as a six-point road favorite. The Huskies failed to score more than 69 points in a game during their ugly 1-5 SU and ATS slump, but have averaged 80 ppg since. At home, UConn tightens up the defense, limiting the opposition to 38 percent shooting.

The Huskies have dominated this series, winning eight of the last 10 (7-3 ATS), including last year’s 61-55 victory as a 3½-point underdog in Morgantown, W.Va., the only meeting last season.

The Mountaineers have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover, while the Huskies are on positive ATS runs of 7-1 after a straight-up win and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records.

West Virginia has stayed below the total in seven of nine after a spread-cover, but topped the posted price in four of five overall and eight of 11 on the highway. UConn is on “over” runs of 4-0 on Mondays, 24-10 at home against teams with winning road records and 4-1 against teams with winning records, but it is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall and 5-2 at home.

In this series, the “over” has been the play in four of the last five clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN and OVER

Oklahoma (13-13, 8-15 ATS) at (1) Kansas (26-1, 10-13-1)

The struggling Sooners make the trek to Allen Fieldhouse for a meeting with top-ranked Kansas, which sits alone in first place in the Big 12 and is in search of its 13th straight win overall and 58th straight home victory.

Oklahoma has dropped four in a row (SU and ATS) and failed to win or cover in seven of its last nine overall. On Saturday, the Sooners were destroyed at home by No. 7 Kansas State, falling 83-68 as a 5½-point home ‘dog after trailing by just two points at halftime. Oklahoma is just 2-11 away from home this season and 0-6 when visiting Big 12 rivals (1-5 ATS).

While they’ve been producing wins, the Jayhawks have been falling short at the betting window, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall, including Saturday when they failed to cover the 21-point spread in a 94-74 home win over Colorado. Kansas averages 87.5 points per game on 49.9 percent shooting inside Allen Fieldhouse while limiting the opposition to just 61.8 points and 36.2 percent shooting. The Jayhawks’ 57-game home court winning streak is the longest in the nation and five shy of a school record.

Kansas has won five straight in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), including an 87-78 road win a year ago as a two-point pup. Last time these two met in Lawrence was 2008 when the Jayhawks scored a 30-point blowout, 85-55, cashing easily as 15-point favorites.

Not only have the Sooners struggled to post victories, they haven’t had much luck at the betting window lately either, as they’re currently on ATS slides of 15-36-3 on the road, 0-4 in Big 12 action, 1-5 after a non-cover and 1-6 against teams with winning records. Kansas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 Monday contests, but from there it is on ATS skids of 1-6 overall (all in the Big 12) and 1-4 at home.

Oklahoma has topped the total in four of five Monday games, but stayed below the posted number in four of five on the road and seven of 11 overall (all in the Big 12). The Jayhawks are on “under” streaks of 7-3 at home, 35-16 after a straight-up win, 6-1 on Monday and 13-3 at home against teams with losing records.

Finally, the “under” is 6-2 in the last eight series clashes inside Allen Fieldhouse.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER

NBA

Atlanta (34-20, 33-21 ATS) at Utah (36-19, 34-18-3 ATS)

The red-hot Jazz will try to extend their winning streak to five when the Hawks conclude a four-game West Coast road trip with a stop at EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.

Atlanta comes in off a 108-104 loss to Golden State on Sunday, falling as a five-point road chalk. The Hawks, who blew a 15-point fourth-quarter lead last night, have now lost three of their last four games (SU and ATS) and two straight on this road trip. Atlanta is just 13-14 as a visitor this season but despite Sunday’s result, it has cashed in 15 of those 27 contests.

Utah made it four consecutive SU and ATS wins on Sunday with a come-from-behind 93-89 overtime victory in Portland, cashing as a 1½-point underdog. The Jazz trailed by 25 points in the third quarter but held the Blazers to 10 fourth-quarter points and tied it at the buzzer on a put-back shot from Carlos Boozer. Utah is perfect since the All-Star break and has won 16 of its last 18 overall, going a sizzling 13-2-3 ATS.

Atlanta scored a 96-83 win over Utah in December, cashing as a six-point home favorite. The home team has won six straight in this series and eight of 10 dating back to 2005. The Hawks have cashed in four of the last five meetings, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Salt Lake City. The favorite is riding a 13-3 ATS run in the last 16 series clashes.

The Hawks are on ATS slides of 0-4 as a road ‘dog and 0-4 on the second night of a back-to-back, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 6-2-2 on Monday, 8-3-1 against Northwest Division teams and 20-8-1 when catching five to 10½-points. Utah, which now has the best pointspread record in the NBA, is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 20-6-3 overall, 15-5-2 at home, 20-7-2 as a favorite, 13-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 5-1-1 on the second night of a back-to-back.

For Atlanta, the “under” is on streaks of 10-3 on Monday, 3-1-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. The Jazz have topped the total in six of eight on Monday, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall and 4-0 as a favorite. In this series, the under has been the play in four straight clashes overall, with the last six in a row in Utah staying low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH

Michael Cannon

Milwaukee at NEW YORK (-1)

Take the Knicks to get it done at home over the Bucks.

New York got a little boost with the addition of Tracy McGrady. T-Mac scored 26 points in 32 minutes in his Knicks debut and he really seemed to energize not only the team, but the fans as well.

This is a revenge spot for New York, who lost at home to Milwaukee, 114-107 on Feb. 5.

There may not be a better time for the Knicks to take advantage of it either, as this marks the Bucks’ third game in four days and fourth in the last six.

Take the Knicks as they get it done at home.

3♦ NEW YORK

Bobby Maxwell

Milwaukee (+1) at NEW YORK

Hit another FREE winner on Sunday as the Nuggets scored the win and cover over the Celtics and improved my comp record to 56-23-1 with my last 80 free plays. Tonight I have another comp winner coming at you with the Bucks as they visit New York to face the Knicks.

Has anyone been paying attention to this Milwaukee team? These guys aren’t that bad and give them one more quality player and these guys are a playoff team. I like them tonight to get the best of the Knicks who are still trying to introduce themselves to one another after all the trading-deadline moves.

The Bucks have young Brandon Jennings playing some very good basketball but then they have big men in Adrew Bogut and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute who just work every night and get the job done, delivering double-doubles. In Saturday’s 93-88 win over Charlotte, Bogut had 18 points and 13 rebounds while Mbah a Moute had 12 points and seven boards.

Milwaukee has won five of seven overall and they’ve covered seven of their last 10 outings. The Bucks have won four of five (SU and ATS) on the road, including a 91-85 win at Detroit on Friday as one-point favorites.

The Bucks have owned the Knicks lately, winning six of the last seven meetings (5-2 ATS), including both matchups this season, winning 114-107 as a two-point pup back on Feb. 5. The Bucks have won three straight in New York, cashing in four of their last five visits to Madison Square Garden.

Milwaukee is on ATS runs of 7-1 on the road, 13-3 overall, 10-1 against Atlantic Division teams, 4-1 on Mondays and 8-0 on the road against teams with losing home records. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS following a spread-cover, 1-4 after getting a day off and 2-5 against Eastern Conference teams.

Play Milwaukee to get the win and cover tonight.

5♦ MILWAUKEE

Karl Garrett

Atlanta at UTAH (-5')

3 straight comp play winners after Marquette cashes in on Sunday!

For Monday, lay the points with the smoking Jazz, as Utah has won 13 of their last 14 straight up, and they are a positive 18-9-2 against the spread at home this season.

The Jazzmen are also 7-3-1 against the spread when playing with no rest, and they catch the Hawks off a 4 quarter meltdown last night at Golden State.

Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 7 on the road, and they have also dropped 7 of the last 10 series meetings against Utah.

Utah has a payback in mind after losing by double-digits in Atlanta in mid-December, and the way the Jazz are playing right now, I cannot go against them tonight.

Lay the small number with Utah as they split the season series with the Hawks with the win and cover tonight.

4♦ UTAH

Hollywood Sports

Oklahoma at Kansas Feb 22 2010 9:00PM
Prediction: Oklahoma

Oklahoma (13-13) is in big trouble without their leading scorer, Willie Warren, who is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Coach Jeff Capel now has serious problems regarding the depth of his club. But this reality will compel Capel to slow games down to compensate which will make it a very difficult task for Kansas to then cover a 22-point spread. Sure, the Jayhawks (26-1) may be the best team in the country. But they are certainly not the best ATS proposition. They have only covered once in their last seven games. As a home favorite of at least 13 points, they have failed to cover their last four games. And while they come off a dominant 94-74 win against Colorado, they have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games off a win. Furthermore, Kansas has failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games after scoring at least 90 points. The Jayhawks average winning margin remains under 20 points per game. But perhaps most interestingly, Kansas has averaged only 76.2 PPG over their last five games (even with that 94 point outburst over the weekend) while Oklahoma has averaged 72.4 PPG over their last five games. While Kansas should win easily, 22-points (or so) is just too much wood to lay. Take the points with Oklahoma.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +1.5

The Bucks are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league, having won 8 of their last 11. And from a betting perspective, they have been downright deadly as they are 13-3 ATS their last 16 games. Meanwhile, the Knicks have lost 6 in a row, and they figure to have their work cut out for themselves again tonight against a team that has won both meetings this season by 15 and 7 points respectively. Milwaukee is 19-5 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99 or more points per game this season, winning these games by an average score of 101.8 to 96.8. Also, NY is just 6-18 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 3 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 106.6 to 111.5. With these things in mind, we'll take the Bucks tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +1.20 over Chicago

The Wizards really are a different team and the best part about it is their enthusiasm and completely new attitude. Since making those big deals they’ve played twice, beating Denver at home and subsequently traveling the next day to Toronto and giving the Raps a huge scare. In fact, the Wiz should’ve won that game and were in great position to do so. Those were two quality teams and the Wiz didn’t look a bit out of a place. They’ve become very active on the boards, they’re deeper, they have more shooters and when Flip Saunders has the personnel to succeed, he has a proven track record to do just that. So, forget about the Wizards record, that was then and this is now and again, this is a brand new team with quality players and a very positive outlook. The Bulls are overvalued because of four straight wins in which they shot lights out and scored 118, 115, 100 and 122 respectively over that four-game span. However, they played the Knicks twice, the T-Wolves and the 76ers and those are four of the weakest defensive teams in the Association. That’s not to say the Bulls aren’t playing well because they are and have been for the better part of the past five weeks. Thing is, its stock is soaring right now and that has created some great value on the home side and instead of trying to handicap games, it’s better to look for value, play it and let the chips fall where they may. The Wizards are going to be a very tough out at home the rest of the year and absolutely have a great chance to pull off the upset here. Play: Washington +1.20 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +5/+1.80 over UTAH

Speaking of stocks that are soaring off the charts and one need not look further than these Jazz. Utah is on fire with an incredible 16 wins in its last 18 games and they capped it off by winning every one of its just completed four-game road trip. However, this is a great situation for the Hawks despite its difficulty at this venue. Not only has Utah won four in a row but they return home after that four-game trip and they return home after overcoming a 25-point deficit in Portland last night in a game that went into OT. Furthermore, the Jazz will play its third game in four nights and its fifth game since last Tuesday. That’s about as difficult a situation as you will find all year and it’s not like the Hawks can’t play. Atlanta is in a bit of a funk but every team goes through it over the course of an 82-game schedule. They couldn’t have handpicked a better time to play the Jazz and this Hawks team is without question one of the league’s elite teams. Percentage wise, they have a better record than the Jazz and catch Utah in an extremely vulnerable spot. This is a great opportunity for them to get right-sided and after losing 15 straight in Utah they can also get that proverbial monkey off its back. In terms of situational plays it does not get better than this. Play: Atlanta +5 (Risking 1.07 units to win 1). Play: Atlanta +1.80 (Risking 1 unit).