Nelly
New York - over Milwaukee
The Knicks are favored despite having lost six straight games but the infusion of new players should help this team get back on track. New York had two OT losses in this losing streak and also lost to this same Bucks team by seven just over two weeks ago. Milwaukee shot extremely well in that game, hitting nearly 48 percent of shots including ten 3-point baskets. This is a much different Knicks team and at least in the short term it should be a unit that fits the D-Antoni system well. The Bucks are 9-19 S/U on the road this season and this could be a bad spot for Milwaukee coming off back-to-back wins and facing travel for the fifth straight game, alternating home and away games. The Knicks have been a competitive team in most home games and this is also a team that performs well with an off day in between games. Look for the new look Knicks to pull out a victory tonight.
Tony George
Atlanta Hawks vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Atlanta +5
Everyone loves the HOT Jazz, and I did last night, they find ways to win, HOWEVER I love going against teams off a road series and off an OT win or loss to be honest. Atlanta deep and talented, and will have fresher legs in this one, even in the altitude. Too many points for a Jazz team who blew their wad last night in an all out effort to win a game. They will not be fresh for this one, I have a gut feel they lose SU at home, I am grabbing the points.
John Ryan
West Virginia vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut +2.5
3* graded play on UCONN as they host West Virginia in a huge Big East matchup set to start at 7:00 EST and will be seen on ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will win this game. WVA has truly struggled over the recent weeks, especially on the offensive end. In their last game against Seton Hall they essentially blew a 19 point lead and did NOT have a FG in the last 9 minutes of that game. They did go 12 for 16 from the foul line down the stretch. You cannot shoot like that against a hungry team like UCONN. Just last monday this same UCONN team defeated Villanova. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 55-19 ATS for 74% winners since 1997. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is an excellent defensive team allowing opponents <=40% shooting facing an average defensive team allowing opponents 42.5-45% shooting. In addition, the team is an average ball handling team committing 14.5-17.5 TOPG facing a poor pressure defensive team forcing <=14.5 TOPG after 15+ games of the regular season. HC Huggins does not have a sound history in this situation. he is just 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 and 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Take UCONN.
Teddy Covers
Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks
PICK: Over 208
With Tracy McGrady, Eddie House and Sergio Rodriguez joining the Knicks rotation at the trading deadline, head coach Mike D’Antoni has made it very clear – the Knicks will be running and gunning, playing at D’Antoni’s preferred pace. D’Antoni was very clear about his intentions following the deal: “I tried to slow it down, but I just don’t like to coach that way. I’d rather speed it up and run, and I think we can do that.”
Rodriguez is a whirling dervish at the point, far quicker than the guy he’s stealing minutes from, Chris Duhon. But the key here is actually Tracy McGrady, playing ‘point forward’ for New York. D’Antoni played the final six minutes of the fourth quarter without Rodriguez or Duhon on the floor, relying on T-Mac to guide the offense. D’Antoni: “The ball’s going to go through him and he’s going to create the play.”
This dramatically changes the way that opposing teams, like Milwaukee, are going to defend the Knicks. If defenses switch on David Lee when New York runs a’ pick and roll’ or ‘pick and pop’, it will leave a slower big man guarding McGrady or Rodriguez, to guys who can make them pay more than Duhon did with aggressive drives to the basket.
The Bucks have looked very comfortable playing uptempo against the defense-less Knicks. When these two teams met here at Madison Square Garden before the All Star break, we saw a 114-107 shootout; a wild game in which the two teams combined for well over 200 possessions in 48 minutes of play. Expect a similar pace tonight. 2* Take the Over.
Dennis Macklin
Georgia Southern vs. Samford
Take Georgia Southern +10
Both of these teams are Southern Conference trainwrecks so we'll take the least of two evils in the Georgia Southern Eagles and keep our fingers crossed. GSU is just 1-5 SU in their L6 but they've covered nine of their last twelve, obviously a team with valus getting these big numbers. Samford is giving ten points despite losing six of their last seven at Hanner Fieldhouse and posting a 1-5 spot as a home favorite. Samford's home wins were an ugly 55-31 decision over Elon and a ten point win over something called Spring Hill. Further, the Bulldogs lay double-digits while avgg. just 57 ppg and it's highly unlikely that Georgia Southern and their 69 ppg will be held in the high 40's or low 50's here. On a slow night in the NBA and college hoops, Georgia Southern rates a small flyer.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Kansas Jayhawks -21
With leading scorer Willie Warren likely out again tonight, and hobbled if he is somehow able to go, expect Kansas to lay a whooping on the Sooners. With a win, the Jayhawks clinch a share of their school record-tying sixth consecutive Big 12 regular-season title, and that's a big deal. In fact, Kansas hasn't won six consecutive regular-season conference titles since claiming Missouri Valley crowns from 1922-27 so motivation should not be an issue. Oklahoma has lost 4 straight games and the last 3 have been bad. The Sooners lost by 21 at Oklahoma State. They lost by 10 at Colorado, a school that is below them in the Big 12 standings. And the Sooners just lost by 15 at home to Kansas State. If K-State can win by 15 over the Sooners on the road, a Kansas team winning its home games by an average of 25.8 points can certainly cover this number. A major thing to keep in mind here is that Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams making 45% or more of their shots this season. Plus, I also like the fact that the public is all over the Sooners here. Books usually want the public money on the No. 1 team in the country because it normally commands so much attention, but they have clearly found a number to get the public money coming in on the Sooners. In other words, the books are expecting the Jayhawks to cover this number. We'll take the Jayhawks as they put the hurt on the Sooners in the national TV spotlight.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma +22
It has been a tough season for the Sooners, but Oklahoma can make their year with a win over Kansas. That's why they'll be laying it all on the line tonight. This team has a lot more talent than their record would indicate, but time and time again they keep coming out on the short end of the stick when it comes to the scoreboard, failing to win the close games. Kansas is 1-12 ATS after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last 3 seasons. This is the No. 1 team in the country, and with that No. 1 ranking comes big expectations from the odds makers. The Jayhawks are not going to be showing value in almost any game the rest of the season. Instead, the value will be with their opponents and it is again tonight. Take Oklahoma.
Denver Money
1* Chicago Bulls -2
The Chicago Bulls come into Washington tonight playing some of the best basketball they have all year. Chicago has won 4 straight and 6 of their last 10 games overall. Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bulls have played well in their last few games against the Eastern Conference as well going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, while the Wizards have gone 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central. Wizards who are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record should struggle against the Bulls tonight as they have played better on road of late. Chicago has struggled in the past few meetings against the Wizards going 1-6 in the last 7 games ATS. Both teams will be coming into tonight's game off 1 day rest and the Bulls have the advantage here as well going 5-1 ATS in last 6 and Wizards are 2-5 ATS in last 7. Let's go ahead and back the road favorite tonight and look for the Bulls to continue to play good basketball.
Stephen Nover
West Virginia (-1) at CONNECTICUT
Off the solid win with Orlando last night, I'm playing West Virginia over Connecticut in College action tonight.
Connecticut has climbed back into NCAA Tournament bubble conversation after posting consecutive road victories against Villanova and Rutgers.
The Huskies are a desperate team. They'll be jacked up for this home matchup. But that's not necessarily a good thing.
The last time the Huskies were home was on Feb. 13 when they lost to Cincinnati, 60-48. That was a huge home game, too, with Jim Calhoun returning to the sidelines following a seven-game medical leave. The Huskies ended up playing one of their worst games in years.
The Huskies are 5-9 ATS at home this season. They have not responded well to home-court pressure.
Let's also realize West Virginia is the better team. The Mountaineers match up well to Connecticut with an active 1-3-1 zone.
The Mountaineers rank ninth in the country in rebounding margin and 13th in assist-to-turnover ratio. They are averaging better than 75 points per game.
3♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Chuck O'Brien
Oklahoma at KANSAS (-22)
Take Kansas and lay the massive points against Oklahoma in Monday’s college basketball action.
I recognize that this is an inflated number. I also recognize that the oddsmakers have caught up to the Jayhawks lately (Kansas has failed to cover in three straight games and six of the last seven, going 0-3 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS as a double-digit chalk). But the fact that I’m still willing to back Kansas at this price should tell you how truly bad Oklahoma is.
The Sooners have dropped four in a row SU and ATS, the last three by point margins of 21 (at Oklahoma State), 10 (at Colorado) and 15 (vs. Kansas State at home on Saturday). They’ve also lost seven of their last nine overall, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven. And look at how OU has performed – or, more accurately, not performed – in Big 12 road games this year: 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS, with losses of 31 points, 3 points, 10 points, 17 points, 19 points and 10 points. The best conference opponent the Sooners have played on the road was Baylor in the league opener on Jan. 9. Result of that one? Baylor 91, Oklahoma 60!
The Sooners are also just 15-36-3 ATS in their last 54 road games and 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 as a road underdog. And if all that isn’t scary enough, Oklahoma also will be without its best player tonight, as guard Willie Warren (16.3 points, 4 rebounds per game) is out with an ankle injury.
Kansas, which has won 13 straight games overall and 57 in a row at home, has thrived in these nationally televised Monday night games, too, cashing in 16 of the last 21. Just since Jan. 25, the Jayhawks are 3-0 on Monday, beating Missouri 84-65 at home, Texas 80-68 on the road and Texas A&M 59-54 on the road. All three of those teams are going to the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma is not.
4♦ KANSAS
Derek Mancini
Indiana (+9') at DALLAS
6-2 L8 freebies! This contest had all the trappings of a very dangerous game for the Mavs, who are now everyone's favorite Western Conference team based on acquiring Butler (and Haywood). Are the new-look Mavs a better team? Yes, but blindly laying this many with a team that's 6-20 ATS at home is just plain dumb.
No surprise we're seeing a ton of action on Dallas here, but I've never been one to side with the majority. There's still some chemistry issues that have to work themselves out, inlcuding sharing the ball between three players that love to shoot (Nowitzki, Butler, and Terry). Dallas had trouble closing out the Heat in its last home game (failed to cover), and Indiana can be just as troublesome.
Lookahead factor cannot be ignored, with the Lakers on deck for the Mavs two days from now. Along the same path as the lookahead, is the potential for Dallas to overlook the Pacers based on their last meeting. Mavs routed them at Conseco Fieldhouse, so why should they worry tonight? It's that kind of attitude that will cost the Mavs another home game ATS! If the Heat can come into Dallas' house and shoot 46% (without Wade), then Indiana (with Granger) can do the same. Pacers plus the points Monday!
2♦ INDIANA
Chris Jordan
Charlotte (-3) at L.A. CLIPPERS
Now let's get to your complimentary play on the Charlotte-LA Clippers contest. I'm laying the road chalk in this one, as the Bobcats come to Staples Center in the nick of time. They desperately need to salvage their road trip, and this is a good place to start ... provided they're playing the Clippers, and not the team in purple and gold.
Charlotte, which holds the eighth and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference, is a dismal 7-20 on the highway this season, and follows up this game with visits to Utah on Wednesday and at Memphis on Friday.
Thus, tonight seems to me like a must-win, in order to gain some momentum before tougher road tasks.
While the 'Cats have won four straight against Los Angeles - including two game inside Staples, the Clipps have lost 10 of 12 overall and have the fourth-worst record in the Western Conference.
Checking the betting figures, the Bobcats are an impressive 17-4 versus Pacific Divison foes and boast a 6-1 mark when laying points in this range. On the flipside, the Clippers are on ATS slides of 14-30 on one day's rest, 19-41 after winning straight-up, 5-21 on Monday nights, 1-4 when catching points in this range at home and 1-5 overall.
Lay the small road chalk here.
4♦ BOBCATS
Scott Rickenbach
Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz
PICK: Over 196
The Jazz will likely have some tired legs on defense tonight. They’re playing their 4th game in 5 nights and it is a back to back situation for them. Utah was at Portland last night and note that, over the last three seasons, the Jazz are 31-21 to the over when playing on back to back days. Also, the Jazz are 4-2 to the over this season when they are at home and the total is posted between 195 and 199.5 points. Additionally, when on a winning streak of three games or more, Utah is 8-5 to the over this season. Even though Andrei Kirilenko is expected to miss this game, the Jazz are expected to get Mehmet Okur back. The Jazz are hosting a fired up Hawks team that blew a big lead and lost at Golden State last night. This will result in Atlanta wanting to push the tempo in this game to an even higher level tonight.
Atlanta is 8-4 to the over this season when allowing 105 points or more in their prior game. Also, the Hawks are 3-1 to the over this season when they’ve played three consecutive road games and they’re 14-8 to the over when they are off of a non-conference game. After losing at Golden State last night due to failed offense in the fourth quarter, look for the Hawks to hit the court running in this one tonight. Atlanta is 20-13 to the over when off of a loss in a game where they were favored. The way they lost to the Warriors is also a key here and we expect it to result in a high-tempo affair. The Jazz have stayed under the total in five straight games but the tough schedule is going to catch up with their defense here and that means both teams should score a pile of points in this one! Consider a small play on OVER the total in Utah on Friday night.
Info Plays
3* on UConn +2.5
Reasons why the Huskies cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CONNECTICUT) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 15+ games. This is a 55-19 ATS System hitting 74.3% since 1997.
2.) UConn absolutely has to win this game if they are to be playing come late March. They have done a great job to keep themselves alive with wins over Villanova and Rutgers this past week, and they will have a great shot to beat WVU tonight at home where they are 13-3 this season. Bet the Huskies at home.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks +5
Utah is coming off an overtime win at Portland last night, a game where they trailed by as many as 25 points in the 3rd quarter, but found a way to come back and steal the victory. It will be very hard for the Jazz to get up tonight following a win of that magnitude, and we feel the Hawks will take advantage as the fresher team. Coming off two straight losses, the Hawks will also be the more hungry and focused team tonight. Atlanta is 3-2 S.U. & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Jazz. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Hawks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take Atlanta and the points.