Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 25

David Chan

Texas Tech vs. Kansas St.
Pick: Kansas St.

Situational Analysis

Texas Tech is just 1-6 SU on the road. The Red Raiders have in fact lost eight in a row overall. Most recently they got hammered 86-66 at Iowa State on Saturday.

Is a big game for the home side as it's in a tight battle for its first ever Big 12 title. Most recently the Wildcats beat Texas 81-69 on Saturday. Rodney McGruder had 20 points, and four players would go on to score in double figures.

Statistical Analysis

Not only is Texas Tech just 4-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, but it's also just 5-9 ATS vs. conference opponents, and 6-11 ATS as an underdog this season.

Note that Kansas State is 10-7 ATS this season as a favorite. It's also 8-6 ATS vs. conference opponents, and 8-4 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

These teams played on February 5th, and Kansas State would go on to win 68-59 at Texas Tech. It was not able to cover the 11 point spread. I believe K-State's clear home court advantage (15-1 SU so far this year), and it's sheer determination turns out to be the difference in the end today though, and expect the Wildcats to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Art Aronson

Boston vs. Utah
Pick: Utah

Boston is coming off a 92-86 setback at Portland last night, and I believe will stumble once again vs. this highly motivated and hungry Jazz side. Members of mine were treated to a big winner with the Blazers last night. Boston may be 29-27 overall, but it's just 9-18 SU on the road this season. The achilles heel of the C's have definitely been their play on the road. The Celtics rallied after star point-guard Rajon Rondo went down, but I believe the wheels will start falling off the bus now. And especially in these types of back to back road situations (Boston is just 9-15 ATS on the road this year, and only 13-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record). Utah on the other hand is coming off a 107-94 setback at the Clippers on Saturday night (LA was my "ART OF WAR" signature pick, part of my overall 10-2 all sport weekend). The Jazz though are 21-6 SU at home, and will look to take advantage of this tired and elderly Celtics team (Utah is 17-10 ATS at home this season, and 8-6 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more). I don't think this one will even be close, so lay the points.

Will Rogers

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver
Pick: Denver

Kobe Bryant has his swagger back, and the L.A. Lakers have won three straight since the All Star break. Kobe has guaranteed that the Lakers will make the playoffs, but they are in a tough spot on Monday, taking on Denver at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets don't often get beat on their home floor, they have a record of 23-3 at home this year.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Fatigue - The Lakers are one of the oldest teams in the NBA, so they don't match up well versus a deep, young, athletic team like Denver at the best of times. Playing their second game in as many nights, in the high altitude of Denver, they are at a severe disadvantage.

2: Recent History - The Lakers have struggled in Denver in recent years, with a record of 3-7 ATS in their last 10 visits to the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games off a day of rest.

3: Line Value - Given the fact that Denver is perhaps the most dominant home team in the NBA, and the Lakers losing record on the road, I feel the line is very low, and the Nuggets by all rights should be a double-digit favorite.

Jesse Schule

Washington vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

The Raptors have won seven of their last eight games, and one of those was a convincing 96-88 victory over the Wizards in Washington on Tuesday. Rudy Gay has averaged 21.4 points per game as a Raptor, more than four points higher than his average with Memphis. He's coming off a season-high 32 point performance in Toronto's home win over the New York Knicks on Friday.

The Wizards have lost each of their last five visits north of the border, and they are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings overall. As good as Washington has looked recently, they don't have a lot to prove on the road in a foreign country against a hungry raptors team that has their eyes on the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Washington's 4-22 record away from home is the league's worst road record, and they will be hard pressed to get a victory over the Raptors who are 14-2 ATS against teams with a winning percentage below .400.

John Wall was 1 for 12 with seven turnovers in last week's home loss to Toronto, and the Wizards PG will have to be much better tonight if Washington is going to compete. It's asking a lot for a young team like the Wizards to get up for this game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a poor effort from Washington on Monday.

Bruce Marshall

Washington vs. Toronto
Pick: Under

Quick rematch from last Tuesday when Raptors won by 8 at Verizon Center, with DeMar DeRozan and recently-added Rudy Gay each scoring 24 in the new-look Toronto backckourt. Raptors’ trade deadline activity has effectively occurred a few weeks earlier when adding Gay from Memphis in three-team deal, while Washington might consider it addition by subtraction when ridding itself of the distraction that disgruntled G Jordan Crawford (sent to Boston last Thursday) had become since his playing time diminished upon the reactivation of John Wall. Regardless, it’s fair to wonder if Wizards are about to cool off after extended run of pointspread success (15-3 vs. number in in 18-game stretch) was followed by recent losses to Pistons and Raptors, although we suspect HC Randy Wittman’s ability to get Washington focused on stop end (reflected in 13 “unders” last 16) suggests “Da Bullet” ought to stay competitive in lower-scoring games until further notice.

John Ryan

Kansas at Iowa State
Play: Iowa State

The simulator shows a high probability that the Red Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 79-37 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2007. Play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points and is an average shooting team making between 42.5 to 45% of their shot attempts and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 45 to 47.5% shooting with the current game taking place after 15+ games. This system reflects how lines get inflated this time of year with the public betting increasingly more on the ranked teams, especially when at home. K-State is tied with Kansas for the Conference lead and public sentiment is that will not have a letdown knowing that any slip will put their conference championship aspirations in great danger. Still, the players know they can beat TT and that they are the superior team. This is a coaches? nightmare type of game in trying to get the full attention and focus to play TT as if they are Kansas. So, this is just too many points to give TT and I fully expect them cover easily.

Jimmy Boyd

Syracuse -1

You should always play on a road team like Syracuse where the line is +3 to -3 and they are shooting 32-36.5% from beyond the three point line against a team with an average three point defense that allowed 37% shooting or less in their last two games. This situation is 54-25 (68.4%) the last 79 times it has occurred. Sticking with the three point angle, the Orange are 7-0 ATS vs. teams attempting 14 or less three point shots per game over the last three seasons.

The Marquette defense has been somewhat inconsistent this year. They are 1-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in their last game this season. The Syracuse defense is holding teams to 59.2 points per game on 37% shooting from the field and 28.9% from beyond the three point line.

The oddsmakers have not given Syracuse as much credit as they deserve which is why they have earned a 14-9 ATS record. Syracuse will be the best team Marquette has faced on their home court this season so their 14-0 home record is in jeopardy. Both of these teams have similar defensive numbers, but the Orange have a much better offense and it will show tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington vs. Toronto
Play: Over

This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed over 80% of the time the past few years and plays to the over for home favorites like Toronto that that scored 100 or more as a home dog of 4 or less and shot 45% or less from the field last out, vs an opponent like Washington that also scored 100 or more as a home dog of 4 or less. These two recently played in a Back from the Break game last week. That game was low scoring. Many of the indicators for these two on the season show to the under. However none are as strong as the system And I see these two playing over the modestly posted total here tonight. Take Toronto and Washington to play over the total.

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics +7

This is definitely a tough spot for Boston, playing on the road against the Jazz in the same game of a back-to-back road set, but I believe oddsmakers have set this line slightly too high. The Celtics always seem to play the Jazz tough. They have won four straight in the series and are 8-6 at Utah since 1996. Boston has lost three of four, but could easily be 3-1 as they lost a couple of close games on the road at Denver and Portland. Usually when a team is playing for the 5th time in seven days you would expect them to struggle, but Boston is a profitable 39-21 ATS in their last 60 road games when faced with playing 5 in 7.

Dave Price

Iowa State +1.5

Kansas has shown plenty of vulnerability on the road where it lost to TCU and Oklahoma, was fortunate to beat Oklahoma State and was tested by Texas, Kansas State and West Virginia. It will have to play extraordinary basketball if it wants to walk out of Hilton Coliseum with a win. Iowa State took Kansas to overtime on the road in the season's first meeting, and now it gets the Jayhawks at home where it is 15-0 on the season. The Cyclones check in off a blowout win at home over Texas Tech, which is significant considering they are on an 18-4 ATS run in home games following a home win against a conference foe. It is also worth noting that they are 13-4 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State can flat out shoot the basketball from long range and that spells trouble for the Jayhawks. The Cyclones average 10 3-point makes per game and connected on 14 in the first matchup. Consider that Kansas is 0-7 ATS in road games the last three seasons versus teams who average 8 or more 3-point makes per game. Lastly, Iowa State is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home the last three seasons in games when oddsmakers have set a line of +3 to -3. They have won these games by an average score of 79.8 to 73.7. Take Iowa State.

Jim Feist

Boston at Utah
Pick: Under

Anytime the Boston Celtics are in the second of a back-to-back spot, I take a hard look at that game. The Celtics are one of the older teams in the league and these back-to-back spots are hard on them. I especially like to look at the UNDER. And, it's even better when we get the Celtics on the road in this spot. The Celtic games are 4-9 O/U the last 13 times when this second game has been on the road. In fact, the Celtics have scored over 100 points just one two times in this spot in the last 27 tries. I pretty much throw out all other stats when I see the Celtics playing in this spot. They should be tired and look to slow down the pace here. Take the under as your free play on Monday.

Dave Cokin

Villanova at Seton Hall
Pick: Villanova

Credit where credit is due belongs to Jay Wright. He's coaching a Villanova squad that I would call somewhat limited. JayVaughn Pinkston is a really solid guy, but the rest of the roster is pretty average. I don't see the Wildcats as having the potential to be more than okay on offense. But the 'Cats are running some good stuff and what's happening is that they're getting to the foul line on a very regular basis. In fact, Villanova is number one in all of D-1 in terms of point distribution from the stripe. Seton Hall has a tendency to foul too frequently, which means there's a good chance they're going to play right into Villanova's hands here. I also like what Wright has the 'Cats doing defensively, as he's running multiple sets and creating confusion for Big East opponents. Villanova is on a nice roll right now while Seton Hall isn't winning anything. It's a potential flat spot for the visitors with a big revenge game at Pitt on deck. But I'll ignore that and focus on the actual matchup tonight, which would seem to favor the Wildcats. Villanova minus the points is the choice.

Don Best Consensus

Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
Pick: Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.

Ray Monohan

Kansas vs. Iowa State
Play: Kansas

This is one of those games where I ask myself what would this line have been at the beginning of the year. Sure Kansas has endured some tough conference losses and is maybe not as good as some thought they might be. On the other hand Iowa State is a pleasant surprise at 19-8, barring anything unfortunate they are likely to join the Big 12’s upper echelon in the Big Dance. The Cyclones do have talent but in the end it is a tier below the Jayhawks. Assuming both teams play well Kansas should win relatively easily. The value on them at PK and/or -1 is fantastic.