Wunderdog
Villanova at Seton Hall
Pick: Under 130
The Villonova Wildcats are off a huge win at home vs. Marquette, which will probably position them just inside the bubble. They should be focused here against a very beatable Seton Hall team, bitten by the injury bug. The surge by the Wildcats has been spearheaded by a sticky defense that, over the last few games, is allowing a stingy 57.6 ppg. The Hall has gone over a month without placing one in the win column. They have gone 13 straight games without topping the 67 point mark and have been held in the 50s in eight of their last 12. The pace here is going to be slow. The Wildcats are an impressive 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 roadies vs. a winning home team, while the Hall is 8-2 to the UNDER in their last ten on home hardwood. Play this one UNDER the total.
David Banks
Utah Jazz -6.5
The Boston Celtics (29-26, 23-29-2 ATS) should be a tired bunch on Monday night given a brutal travel week when they visit a very good home team in the Utah Jazz (31-25, 27-28-1 ATS) at EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT at 9:05 ET on NBA TV. This is the final game of a five-game road trip vs. the Western Conference for the Celtics, but the real story is that it is the fifth game in seven days! That would be a tough schedule for just about any team, but the fact that we are talking about a veteran-laden team does not help matters, especially with this being the second game of the second back-to-back on this trip following a game in Portland on Sunday.
The trip began with a covering seven-point loss at Denver last Tuesday, which was followed by an understandable double-digit loss to the Lakers the next night given that this aged team was on a back-to-back after playing in high altitude. After a needed day off Thursday, Boston responded with a rout of Phoenix on Friday. Now the Celtics are playing with no rest again before getting three days off until their next game at home vs. Golden State on Friday, so if there was ever a time to give the veterans some extended rest, this could be it and probably regardless of the score too. The Celtics have actually flourished since losing All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo for the season, going 9-3 both straight up and ATS in their first 12 games without him pending the result vs. the Trail Blazers on Sunday, but unfortunately, this is a case where they actually have two opponents in the Jazz and the schedule makers.
Utah has always been a strong home team and the home/away splits for the Jazz this season appear to be as extreme as ever. Their last two games have been a microcosm of the entire season, as the Jazz beat the Warriors by 14 points here at home last Tuesday and then went on the road a lost by 13 points to the Clippers on Saturday. They are an excellent 21-6 straight up and 17-10 ATS at home, where they are averaging 100.9 points per game while allowing only 95.7 for an average winning margin of +5.1 points. It is rather amazing how those numbers are very nearly exact flip-flops of the Jazz's performance on the road, where they are 10-19 straight up and 10-18-1 ATS while averaging only 96.3 points and allowing 101.7 for an average losing margin of -5.4 points! The Jazz have been at their best vs. Eastern Conference opponents in Salt Lake City, going 7-1 against the opposite conference while winning by an average of +9.3 points, and this is also a revenge spot after losing to the Celtics 98-93 back in Boston way back on November 14th.
The favorites are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings, and the Jazz are certainly the favorites here. The Celtics are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games overall and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
John Martin
Syracuse -1
Off a bad 46-57 home loss to Georgetown on Saturday, I look for the Syracuse Orange to bounce back with a big road win over Marquette Monday night. While the Orange didn't match up well with the bigger, more physical Hoyas, they do match up very well with the smaller, more athletic Golden Eagles. Jim Boeheim's patented zone defense will force Marquette to beat Syracuse from outside. I'll take my chances considering the Golden Eagles shoot just 30.0 percent from 3-point range on the season, including a woeful 27.8% at home. The Orange are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by 21.7 points/game.
Brandon Lee
Iowa State +1.5
Iowa State should have beat the Jayhawks in Kansas earlier this season, but the Jayhawks were able to hit a desperation 3-pointer to send the game into overtime. Kansas would go on to win 97-89. Iowa State has proven they can hang with the best in the Big 12 and I expect them to win this game tonight. The Cyclones are a perfect 15-0 on their home floor and are an amazing 13-4 ATS revenging a loss vs an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take the points!
Jack Jones
Denver Nuggets -7
Off back-to-back wins over the Blazers and Mavericks by a combined 7 points, the Los Angeles Lakers come into this game overvalued with the Denver Nuggets Monday. They picked up a huge win at Dallas yesterday, but now they come in very fatigued. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days.
The Denver Nuggets have had a day off since beating the Bobcats 113-99 on the road Saturday. Now they return home where they have been simply sensational all season. The Nuggets are 23-3 SU & 17-9 ATS in all home games this season. They are scoring 108.7 points/game at the Pepsi Center and outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points/game.
Los Angeles is just 10-18 SU & 10-18 ATS on the road this season. It's an older team as it is, and on little rest, it won't be able to keep up with one of the most up-tempo teams in the league tonight. That has been the case in two previous meetings this season. Denver won 126-114 at home over Los Angeles on December 26th, and 112-105 on the road on January 6th.
The Lakers are just 1-11 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Denver is a perfect 9-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. Los Angeles is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 games following a win. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Nuggets Monday.
SPORTS WAGERS
IOWA STATE +116 over Kansas
The Jayhawks of Kansas need no introductions. This is a perennial power with the most passionate fan base in the country. This year is no different as the Jayhawks will once again be a high seed at this year’s Madness. Kansas is ranked #9 in the country with its 11-3 conference mark and 22-4 overall record. However, with just three games left after this one against Texas Tech, West Virginia and Baylor, Kansas is done with its difficult portion of the schedule and could certainly ease up a bit here. However, this isn’t about fading them.
For the Cyclones, this is without question their biggest game of the year. Iowa State has won three straight and five of seven to run its record to 19-8. The Cyclones have defeated K-State, Baylor twice and Oklahoma. They also have some very close losses to tournament qualifying teams, including an OT loss in Lawrence against these same Jayhawks. ISU has won 12 straight at home with its last loss occurring way back on November 23 against then #22 Cincinnati. A win here punches Iowa States’ ticket to the dance. This host can compete with anyone. They rank high in all key categories on both ends of the floor. Playing in front of a packed and raucous crowd with everything on the line is the perfect setting for this talented host to will its way to victory.
Dallas +144 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Stars continue to get disrespected or ignored by both the oddsmakers and betting public. Rarely do they get outplayed. Dallas has picked up points in six of its past nine games, holding its opposition to few scoring chances and fewer than 26 shots on net per game. Had it not been for some shaky goaltending, this visitor could be sitting among the elite in the standings. The Stars have recent wins over Anaheim, San Jose and Vancouver and they’re the only team in the NHL producing nine straight games of three goals or more.
The Predators have not scored a goal in two straight games. Their 39 goals this season ranks them dead last in the NHL. Nashville has dropped four of five with only win over that span occurring in OT against Detroit. Two games later in Detroit, the Preds were shutout, 4-0. It’s one thing to be winning games 1-0 and 2-1, it’s a completely different thing to lose and not score as players start to press and frustration becomes an issue. Now we get to take back a significant price on a team that can score against a team that cannot and that is true value at its best.
Anaheim +132 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. Once again we find some strong value on a very good team. Anaheim is coming off yesterday’s 4-3 home OT win against Colorado, following four full days of rest. The Ducks came out a bit flat but turned it on in the second half of the game to notch their 13th win of the year. Only the Blackhawks have more wins than these Ducks. Anaheim has now won six straight while scoring 24 goals over that period. As a road team, Anaheim is extraordinary 7-1-1.
The Kings have also caught fire with three straight wins and five victories in their past six games. However, a close look reveals its last four wins have come against Columbus, Edmonton, Calgary and Colorado. That quartet sits in the bottom four spots of the Western Conference. So, while Los Angeles is playing better than they were when the season started, they’re still a 10th place club spotting significant juice to a second place club. The Ducks have already come into the Staples Center once this season and skated off with a 7-4 victory. There’s nothing suggesting the Ducks can’t come in here (yesterday was home game and there is no real travel for this one) and emerge victorious again. At this price, it’s certainly worth the risk.
Undefeated77's High Win Rate Triple Confirmed Plays
Take under 136 - 139
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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY
Under 139 bet. Texas Tech and Kansas St..
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Game 711-712: Texas Tech at Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 50.644; Kansas State 73.268
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 22 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 19; 137
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-19); Under
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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
02/25/13 Predictions
KANSAS STATE 80, Texas Tech 53 = 133
Joe Gavazzi
Kansas St -19
Short rest, such as Saturday to Monday, a big advantage for double digit conference road dogs. Particularly ones playing with first meet revenge and coming off a 20 point loss, with the foe off a win and cover. Tech just got avenged by Iowa St on Saturday and is just 1-5 ATS as double digit conference road dog. But only two of those losses have been by more than 20 points. Tonight they face a KS St team without their starting center, Henriquez. The Wildcats come off a brutal stretch of Big 12 games, including their win at Texas this weekend. Time for a breather before they head down the home stretch, including their look ahead to Baylor in their next outing. Leading the Big 12 at 11-3 SU, and having their ticket punched to the Big Dance, further lends to the letdown. Finally, know that first year KS St HC Weber is just 36-54 ATS following a double digit conference win in his career. As strong as these four CBK games are, you do not want to miss any of my NBA winners. I have analyzed all four games for you on the Monday Night NBA Card, including one for FREE.
Denver -7
The Lakers continue their surge toward .500 with a run of 11-4 SU (6-9 ATS), following a 2-10 SU slide. The run began of course when Kobe decided to become a distributor. They should have plenty of motivation with their double revenge and knowledge they can reach the .500 mark with this victory. But it is improbable they get this one tonight. For the season they are 5-15 ATS dog, including 4-11 ATS road dog. Having won in Dallas last night, they are just 10-16 ATS following a win. Now having to travel to altitude is a further negative for this team. They will face a rested Denver team who is 23-3 SU on this court, and plays with the momentum of a Saturday victory, a role in which they stand 20-13 ATS / win. Don't stop with these NBA winners tonight. I swept the board last week on Big Monday and intend to do so again. Get all four ESPN Monday Winners ONE OF WHICH IS FREE.
Hollywood Sports
Anaheim at Los Angeles
Prediction: Under
Anaheim (13-2-0-1) enters this game after surviving a 4-3 win in overtime last night against Colorado. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Ducks' last 8 games following a victory. Jonas Hiller was in net last night for Anaheim -- so look for red hot rookie goaltender Viktor Fasth to be between the pipes tonight in their second game in back-to-back days. The 30-year old phenom from the Swedish league has been sensational so far this season with a perfect 8-0 record along with a 1.78 GAA. And while the Kings are 3-1-0-1 on their home ice this season, the Under is 17-6-1 in the Ducks' last 24 road game against teams with a winning percentage at home. Los Angeles (8-6-1-1) enters this game coming off their 4-1 win against Colorado on Saturday. The Under is a decisive 36-16-9 in the Kings' last 61 games following a victory. The Under is also 3-0-2 in LA's last 5 games after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. And in their last 4 games at home, the Under is 2-0-2 for the Kings. Take the Under in this one.
Harry Bondi
UTAH (-6.5) over Boston
This is the final game of a five-game west coast road trip for the Celtics. It is also their fifth game in seven days. Now, that would be tough on any team but will be big trouble for the leagues oldest team! This is also a back to back affair for Boston who lost in Portland last night. Last time they played back to back games, the Celtics were blown out by the Lakers. We expect the same result tonight. Lay the points with the Jazz.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Edmonton Under 5.5: This has been a high scoring series of late, but not tonight. Chicago home games have averaged just 4 gpg on the year and their strength for the year has been in the net. Chicago is 1st in gpg allowed (1.8) and they are 2nd in penalty kill. Chicago is 4th in scoring at 3.1 gpg, but they only score 2.5 gpg at home. They seem to play a slow grind it out type of game at home, mostly relying on their defense to win games. Edmonton has had problems scoring this year (27th), especially on the road where they have averaged just 2 gpg on the year. Overall the Oilers are 16th in gpg allowed (2.6), but they have allowed just 2.14 gpg on the road and they are 4th in the league in penalty kill. Two good defensive squads in a slow down grind it out game should give us no more than 4 goals.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Utah Under 191: I hit with Boston Portland Under last night and i look do the same with the Celts heading to Utah. Boston has shown at times that it wants to run, but for an aging team this is not a good spot for them to do it. Boston is playing on back to back night and this one will be in the high altitude of Salt Lake City. Boston will really need to slow this game and rely on their defense to win it. Boston has struggled on offense putting up just 91.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they have averaged just 94.2 ppg on the road this year. Utah has been very good on defense at home of late, where they have allowed just 89.2 ppg in their last 6 games, so I don't expect Boston to hit the 90's in this one. That would mean that Utah would have to hit at least 100 for this one to go over and I don't see that happening either. Utah does average 100.9 ppg at home and Boston allows 99.1 ppg on the road, but the Celtics have also allowed more than 100 just twice in their last 10 non-OT road games. Also in a slower paced game it should be hard for Utah t hit te century mark, or even the high 90's. I look for a 95-88 type of game here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Syracuse/ Marquette Under 131.5: This should be a flat out ugly game. We know that both teams have the potential on off to put up some solid offense, but these two teams play excellent defense and that should keep the scoring down. Marquette comes in ranked 59th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they allow just 61.6 ppg on 39.9% shooting. For the Orangemen they come in ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and they allow just 59.2 ppg overall. They do allow 66.4 ppg on the road, but on just 42.5% shooting. Neither team is great from long range as the Cuse hit just 30% on the road, while Marquette hits 27.8% at home and 30% overall (308th). Marquette relies on their inside game, but the Orange are 21st in the nation in 2 pt defense, allowing just 42.4% inside the arc. Lastly we note that neither team is really uptempo as the Cuse are 172nd in that category, while the Golden Eagles are 236th. Typical Big East game where we see a slow paced defensive battle.
Kansas/ Iowa State Over 143.5: Should be a fun uptempo game. This has been a high scoring series of late as they last 5 between these teams have put up 153.4 ppg (regulation), with 4 of the 5 games scoring in the 150's. I feel wee can get there in this one as well. The Kansas offense is picking up again as they have put up 73 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and they are 28th in offensive efficiency for the year. The Cyclones offense hasn't needed to pick up as hey have been there all year long. ISU comes in 5th in the nation in scoring at 79.5 ppg and they are 10th in offensive efficiency. At home they notch 83.5 ppg and they have put up 83.5 and they have put up 80.4 ppg in their last 7 games overall, hitting at least 76 points in 5 of those games. This is a team that will push tempo as they are 49th in that category and while Kansas is not really uptempo they should run with this team. ISU should score in the 70's even though the Jayhawks have a solid defense. Kansas should also easily get into the 70's vs an ISU team that is 232nd in scoring defense (68.6 ppg) and they are getting worse having allowed 70.2 ppg in their last 5 games (Reg). Should also be a close game giving a shot at FT's or OT near the end, but really I don't feel we will need either. Look for this game in the 150's.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +122 over Atlanta
The Pistons are coming off a pair of ugly losses to the Pacers on the weekend by 32 and 18 points respectively. The scores suggest that the Pistons were not very interested but that was definitely not the case. Detroit was simply outmatched and outclassed by the hottest team in the Association right now. The Pistons played with great intensity on Saturday night but could do very little against the Pacers shut down defense and hot second half shooting. Frustrating yes, but not demoralizing as Detroit is just six games out of a playoff spot and will find the going much easier against this group.
These two have played twice this year with Detroit winning once and losing the other in OT. Atlanta has allowed 100 points or more in five of six with only the offensively challenged Magic not reaching that mark. Winning games when allowing 100 or more is unsustainable. The Hawks have just one cover in their last six trips to the Palace and while they are in decent form right now, this is a team that has not sustained good form for long stretches the entire year. They’ll now face a Detroit team in a foul mood and one whose performance and intensity levels on the court is not reflected in its past two games. That’s commonly when upsets occur.
NHL Predictions
Dallas Stars +145
The Dallas Stars enter this game with a 9-8-1 record and 5-5 road record. They are coming off a 3-1 home win vs San Jose on the weekend, and they've gong 6-3 over their last 9 games. During that 9 game span the Stars have scored 3 or more goals in every game. The Nashville Predators are 8-6-5 on the year and 4-2-3 at home. They've lost two straight games and were shutout in both of those losses. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Dallas will go with Cristopher Nilstrop in net tonight in their first of a back to back, and he is 1-3 on the year with a 2.60 GAA and .913 SV%. The Predators are expected to start Pekka Rinne, who has great numbers with a 1.77 GAA and .931 SV% but a record of just 7-5-4. These two teams split their 4 meetings last year, with each team winning one game on the road. With the Stars averaging over 3 goals per game over their last 9 and the Predators being shutout in back to back games I think we have good value on an undervalued Dallas team.
Anaheim Ducks +135
The Ducks were 4-3 winners last night with an overtime victory over the visiting Avalanche. They will now head to Los Angeles to take on the Kings. Anaheim is 13-2-1 on the season, and a stellar 7-1-1 on the road so far this year. The Ducks have won 6 straight games, and have scored 24 goals over those 6 games (4 goals per game). The defending Stanley Cup Champs are off to a 8-6-2 start and are 3-1-1 at home. Los Angeles is on their own winning streak of 3 games and have won 5 of 6, but taking a look at their recent wins you will notice that 4 of those 5 wins have come against the last4 teams in the Western Conference. The Kings did take 5 of their 6 meetings last season, but two of those games in Los Angeles were won in shootout. In their lone meeting this year the Ducks won 7-4 in Anaheim. Viktor Fasth is confirmed for tonight's game for Anaheim and he is a perfect 8-0 on the season with a 1.78 GAA and .933 SV%. The Kings will most likely go with Jonathan Quick who is 5-5-2 on the season with a 2.45 GAA and .905 SV%. Both teams are hot right now, but with the Ducks being 13-3 in their last 16 games and riding a hot undefeated goalie I will take them as good sized underdogs.