Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February, 27

Marc Lawrence

Texas Tech at Baylor
Play: Texas Tech

When the Red Raiders take their act to Baylor to meet the Bears in Waco Monday night Texas Tech will take the court knowing, at the least, they have a ton of history on their side. That's confirmed by TTRR's 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS mark in this series when seeking revenge, including 5-0 ATS the last five on this court. With the underachieving Bears just 1-5 ATS at home off a win in conference play this season, the points become the play here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas Tech.

Rob Vinciletti

Notre Dame vs. Georgetown
Play: Under 118.5

Notre Dame has played under 20 of 26 times as a dog the last 3 seasons and 13 of 15 times vs winning teams this year. In games where they have 2 or less day of rest 13 of 16 have resulted in an under scenario. When they take on defensive teams that allow 65 or less 9 of the last 11 have gone under. Georgetown comes in here off their best defensive effort of the year holding Villanova to 28% from the field. In home games where the Hoyas have had a total of 119 or less they have played under 3 of 4 times the past few seasons. This should be another low scoring game tonight and the last 2 here have stayed under. Look for this one to follow suit.

Craig Trapp

Kansas vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Over 137

Head to head these two have played 3-1 to the Over including 81-66 Over in Feb of this year. Add to it that Okl St has played 4-1 to the over L5 games. Oklahoma State can't guard the inside players without doubling down, once they do KU guards will have target practice from 3 pt line. Looks like really high scoring game well over this total.

Ben Burns

Ducks @ Avalanche
PICK: Under 5.5

I won with the Ducks last night, part of a 3-1 Sunday and 6-2 weekend. Catching Chicago in a tough spot, the Ducks won by a score of 3-1. Including that result, the Ducks have now seen 11 of their last 12 games, including each of the last seven, produce five or fewer combined goals. Yet, tonight's O/U line remains at 5.5. While we do have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5, given Anaheim's recent tendencies, I feel that's providing us with very fair value.

While last night's games came at home, for the season, Anaheim road games are averaging a mere 4.7 combined goals. Not surprisingly, the "under" is a lucrative 23-7-1 when the Ducks have played away from home. In fact, nine of their last 10 road games have fallen below the total, including six straight. Note that the "under" is 16-6 when they've played on the road, with an O/U line of 5.5.

As for the Avalanche, they've seen the "under" go a profitable 13-7 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5.

Colorado's last game was high-scoring, a 4-3 win at Detroit on Saturday. However, five of the Avs' previous six games produced five or fewer combined goals.

The win at Detroit was Colorado's third straight. That's significant as we find the "under" at 17-8-1 the past few seasons, when they'd won their previous three. Consider the "Under 5.5."

David Chan

St. Louis Blues @ Calgary Flames
PICK: St. Louis Blues

The 38-17-7 St. Louis Blues blast into Calgary to take on the 28-23-11 Flames.

Jaroslav Halak is set to square off against Miikka Kiprusoff between the pipes.

With a win the Blues will pull into a tie for the division lead.

St. Louis is coming off a hard-fought 3-2 shootout win over the Jets on Saturday, a game which Halak made 39-saves; the Blues' goaltender is 3-1-0 with a 1.45 GAA in his last four starts.

There is no question that the Blues got "lucky" with that victory after being outshot 41-16, but as the old saying goes: "you have to be good to be lucky":

“We stole one,” said T.J. Oshie. “If it wasn’t for Jaro, it could have been 6-2. We took advantage of a very hot goalie and we were able to steal one.”

The Flames have lost three straight.

Calgary continues to slide, and let a 3-goal lead slip away to the Flyers on Saturday, as it eventually succumbed 5-4.

The Flames are struggling with offense, having been outshot over their last 10-contests:

“It’s no secret, we’re having a tough time right now playing with the lead,” Jarome Iginla said. “The good part is we’re getting it and we’re having real solid first periods. But it slowly slips away from us.”

Calgary is struggling with consistency in net, and with being able to close games; look for the surging Blues to take advantage!

Bryan Power

Los Angeles Kings @ Nashville Predators
PICK: Nashville Predators

All things considered, I like Nashville to roll at home tonight against the visiting LA Kings. Both teams enter in off four-goal victories in their respective previous contests, but home ice I feel will provide a decided edge. The Predators are an amazing 24-2 all-time when playing at home and off a victory by four or more goals and they should have no trouble improving upon that record tonight as the Kings bring the league's worst offense (2.08 goals per game) to town. Nashville has recorded at least one point in 11 consecutive home games, going 9-0-2 overall. They have been getting some outstanding goaltending from Pekka Rinne, who has gone 15-2-3 in 20 starts since Jan 7 w/ a sterling 1.88 GAA. I conclude by noting that the Kings are 11-30 on the road following a shut out win. Lay the juice.

Guillermo Sánchez Pérez

New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers
PICK: New York Rangers

New Jersey is 35-22-4 (19-10-1 on the road). New York is 39-15-6 (20-7-2 at home). The last time these clubs played, the Devils upset the Rangers at MSG 1-0 on February 7th, 2012.

The Devils are coming off a 4-3 loss at home to Tampa Bay yesterday. Petr Sykora, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Zach Parise scored. It was the teams second straight loss after coming out of the break 9-1-1.

The Rangers are coming off a 3-2 overtime win over Buffalo on Saturday. Captain Ryan Callahan scored his 100th NHL goal half way through the extra frame; “That puck will go to my parents for sure, and I know my grandma is very happy tonight,” said Callahan. “We stayed even-keeled and kept our emotions about us. I thought it was a real solid 60-minute game out of us.”

I feel this is a great spot for the rested home side, catching a tired and disheartened Devils team in the second game of a back to back (and note that New York is 11-7 [+1.6 units] in its last 18 when revenging a loss vs. an opponent).

Lay it!

Jack Jones

Georgetown -6½

The Georgetown Hoyas are a legit national championship contender this season. The No. 9 Hoyas are 21-6 on the year and I expect them to make easy work out of Notre Dame at home tonight. The home team has won six of the last seven in this series.

Notre Dame (20-9) went on an impressive nine-game winning streak before a 58-61 loss at St. John's last time out. That run cemented their place in the NCAA Tournament, but with it coming to an end, I could certainly see a "hangover" effect happening tonight. In my opinion, this is the toughest game they have faced all year.

Georgetown has been absolutely destroying all comers at home this season. The Hoyas are 14-1 at home, scoring 70.4 points and allowing 52.4 points while outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.0 points/game. Each of their last four home wins have come by double-digits.

The Hoyas are a perfect 8-0 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. The Hoyas are 9-1 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Bet Georgetown Monday.

Jim Feist

Anaheim Ducks vs Colorado Avalanche
Pick: Colorado Avalanche

I always like to take a hard look when an NHL team is playing back-to-back nights. And that's just what we get tonight with the Ducks. They played at home on Sunday night and then had to travel to Denver to face the Avs on Monday. For good teams this is a ardent task, but for mediocre clubs like the Ducks it can be disastrous. The Ducks rank 20th in the NHL in goals scored (2.5) and 18th in goals allowed (2.7). Meanwhile the Avs coming off a big win on Saturday at Detroit, 4-3. Anaheim is likely out of the playoff race with just 62 points. However, Colorado needs every point as they have 68 points and are just two back of Dallas for the final playoff spot in the west. I like Colorado here on Monday against what should be a tired Ducks club.

MATT RIVERS

Monday's comp play is Notre Dame as the road dog at Georgetown.

Just don't see three baskets seperating these teams tonight.

Notre Dame did have their nine-game winning streak come to an abrupt end on Saturday at St. John's, but they have covered their last five games in the underdog role, and are still on an overall 8-2 spread run their last ten games.

The underdog in this series is on an 11-5-1 spread run the past 17 times the schools have done battle, and it has been the Irish that owns the three game series win and cover streak heading into this conference clash tonight.

Georgetown just routed Villanova over the weekend, but the Hoyas are just 5-7 against the spread their last dozen games when listed as the favorite.

I say take the points as this Notre Dame-Georgetown game goes right down to the wire.

5♦ NOTRE DAME

JEFF BENTON

Your Monday freebie is the Oklahoma State Cowboys plus the points at home against the Kansas Jayahwks.

Is this a possible outright upset? Probably not, but this is senior night in Stillwater and the Pokes are catching the Jayhawks at the right time. Kansas went to the well on Saturday in their "border war" with Missouri, as KU came from 19-points down to force overtime and nip the Tigers by a point, 87-86.

Based on the emotional and physical output the Jayhawks had to expend, I have to believe there is a strong chance Bill Self's team comes out a little flat tonight on the road.

Kansas has five losses this season, and four of those losses have come away from the Allen Fieldhouse. Oklahoma State has gone 13-3 straight up at home this year, and they are 6-5-1 against the spread on their home court.

The home team has won the last six regular season meetings between the schools, and the Cowboys have covered the last pair of series meetings, and four of the last six overall versus the Jayhawks.

Take the points as Oklahoma State gives a tired Kansas team a scare.

4♦ OKLAHOMA STATE

Vegas Experts

Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche
Play: Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim takes on Colorado tonight and it looks like a trick from the books to take Colorado as a small -130 favorite as Anaheim tends to do very well against Colorado. Anaheim is 8-2 SU when playing againt Colorado over the last three seasons and that includes a perfect 4-0 SU when playing at Colorado. Last season around this time, Anaheim crushed Colorado on the road 6-2 and shut them out 3-0 both games played at Colorado. Anaheim is 26-15 SU when coming off a home win and even though they are in the second night of back to back's, they should cash another winner tonight!

Black Widow

1* Notre Dame/Georgetown UNDER 120

This game has defensive battle written all over it. Both Notre Dame and Georgetown are two of the best defensive teams in the Big East this season, and that will certainly be on display tonight. Notre Dame allows 61.6 points/game this season while Georgetown only yields 58.7, including 52.4 at home. The Irish are only averaging 59.2 points/game on the road this year, so they'll certainly have a hard time scoring on this stout Hoya defense. Notre Dame is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) in all games this season, including 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when the total is 129.5 or less this season. The Irish are 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The UNDER is 23-3-1 in Notre Dame's last 27 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 38-18 in Hoyas last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER 120 points here.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +156 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Devils lost to Tampa Bay yesterday, which looks rather ugly after the Lightning lost 8-1 in Pittsburgh the day before but it's not as ugly as it seems. New Jersey held the Bolts to just 16 shots on net but four of them found their way to the back of the net. The Devils also lost to the Canucks on Friday but held them to 16 shots on net also. We've been saying all season that the Devils are as good as any team (outside of goaltending) and we still maintain that position. Marty Brodeur remains a liability in net but even so, this is far too much weight to be giving a Devils team of this calibre. It's also worth noting that in the second game of back-to-backs, the Devils are 8-3. Even if the Rangers were at the top of their game, this line would still not be warranted. Right now, the Rangers are in a bit of funk. They’ve won four of their last seven with two of those wins against Buffalo and Columbus coming in OT. Prior to beating Buffalo, they had lost three of four and prior to that, they were fortunate to beat both Boston and Washington. In reality, these Rangers could be on a seven-game losing streak had some bounces not gone their way. The Devils stand as good a chance to win this game as their hosts, making the value offered with such sentiment an easy call for us. Play: New Jersey +156 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +128 over NASHVILLE

The Predators are one of the best home teams in the NHL. They conclude a four-game home stand here after picking up six out of a possible seven points against Vancouver, St. Louis and San Jose. It's not easy to pull the trigger against them in their own barn. However, the Kings are a team every other club wants to avoid in the first round of the playoffs. They picked up Jeff Carter from Columbus and while he did not score in his first game in his new digs, the Kings popped in four in a convincing 4-0 win over Chicago. The acquisition of Carter is a huge physchological boost for an L.A. team that has the least amount of goals in the NHL. L.A. has put themselves in a playoff position by averaging two goals a game. What makes L.A. so dangerous is that if they score three goals they're likely not going to lose. Off that 4-0 win over Chicago and with renewed confident, the Kings could go on a serious tear to close out the year. Look out. Play: Los Angeles +128 (Risking 2 units).