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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February, 27

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(@blade)
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Wunderdog

Radford vs. VMI
Play: VMI -9

The two weeks of “Madness” begins tonight in the Big South, as conference tournament action tips off with VMI hosting Radford. The Keydets’ inability to win on the road left them under .500 for the regular season, but this is a different team here where they are 12-2. The pair of home losses both came against the top two teams in the conference in Coastal Carolina and NC Ashville, as they swept the rest of their home slate. Radford managed just two wins in conference play all season for six wins overall, and finished in the basement of the conference a distant four games from the team just above them. Radford suffered eight double-digit losses this season away from home, and in their last seven lined games have taken the donut at 0-7 ATS. Play on VMI in this one.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 11:49 am
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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Georgetown -6.5

Riding the momentum of an impressive 21-point win over Villanova and hungry to end a 3-game losing streak to Notre Dame, Expect Georgetown to take care of business at home tonight. The Hoyas will also be fueled by an opportunity to move a step closer to capturing one of the Big East's double byes in the upcoming conference tournament. Notre Dame has been extremely reliant on the 3-point shot, and it's confidence from long range has to be wavering after making just 4 of 31 3-points attempts in Saturday's loss to St. John's. The Irish certainly won't get many open looks from beyond the arc against a Georgetown team that ranks 7th in the country in 3-point defense, holding its opponents to only 28.5% from deep. The fact the Irish are coming off a loss is significant because they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a defeat. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They have won by an average score of 72.6 to 60.9 in this situation. We'll lay the points.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 11:50 am
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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Radford +8.5

The value clearly lies with Radford here. In fact, playing on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and are playing their 3rd game in a week has produced a 101-59 ATS record since 1997. These teams have only lost by an average of 4.2 points in this situation. Expect Radford to keep this one closer than the odds makers think.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 11:50 am
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Dave Price

1 Unit Texas Tech +19.5

The Baylor Bears can't be trusted laying this many points. They are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The Bears are 13-3 at home with a 16.3-point average margin of victory. The Red Raiders are 1-13 on the road with a 12.2-point average margin of defeat. Baylor hasn't defeated Texas Tech by more than 18 points in any of the last 5 meetings. Take Texas Tech.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 11:51 am
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David Banks

Kansas / Oklahoma State Under

The Kansas Jayhawks (24-5, 14-13-1 ATS) will attempt to avoid a major letdown when they invade Stillwater Monday night to battle a scrappy Oklahoma State Cowboys (14-15, 14-12-1 ATS) outfit; tip-off from Gallagher-Iba Arena is set to go live on ESPN & ESPN3.com starting at 9:00 ET.

The Jayhawks did it! Saturdays home win and non-cover over the hated rival Missouri Tigers in the final regular season Border War as conference rivals allowed Kansas to at the very least share the Big 12 Title. In doing so, it marked the 8th straight season that KU will have either shared or won the trophy outright! Not bad for a squad predicted by many to be in a rebuilding season at the outset of the year. However, Coach Bill Self knows his club is in a tough spot tonight having to come down from the exhilaration of Saturdays win and put forth a solid effort to escape Stillwater with their 25th victory of the season. The Jayhawks got a stern test from Texas A&M the last time they ventured away from Lawrence, and though they failed to cover the closing 10-point spread in the 66-58 victory, the win moved them to 7-2 SU as a visitor on the year (5-3-1 ATS).

Just like the Sooners did to Mizzou in Norman after the Tigers won the first Border War, the Cowboys will look to do to the Jayhawks after they fought back to win on Saturday. No, OU wasnt able to knock the Tigers off, but they did cover the closing 4.5-point spread in the 71-68 defeat. OKST should expect to see a couple more points than that, so theyre viable candidates to pull this upset at least against the pointspread. The Cowboys enter off a rock solid 60-42 dismantling of the Texas A&M Aggies who seemed to rekindle some of its previous season magic vs. Kansas before taking the trip up North. The win was OK States third in a row at home with the two previous wins coming against Texas and Iowa State; their current home win streak finds them 4-0-1 ATS their L/5. For the Cowboys to have any shot tonight, Keiton Page must continue to carry the team on his shoulders and score even more than the 19 he posted at KU in the teams first go round.

Kansas has won each of these conference rivals L/3 match-ups, but the Cowboys were the pointspread victor in two of those contests. The Jayhawks have covered four of their L/5 versus sub .500 opposition, but the home team has covered the closing number in five of these teams L/7 meetings. In fact, Oklahoma State checks in 3-2 SU & ATS the L/5 times it hosted Kansas. However, the Cowboys have only covered one of their L/5 Big Monday appearances, while KU has excelled in the spotlight covering 20 of their L/28 appearances. The under has cashed five of the L/6 times these teams went at it in Stillwater.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 11:56 am
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NHL Predictions

New Jersey Devils +158

The Devils come into tonight's game losers of two straight, although they have won 4 of their last 6. The Devils are 35-22-4 on the season, and 19-10-1 on the road this year. The Rangers beat Buffalo in overtime on Saturday night, giving them a much needed win after losing 3 of their previous 4 games. The Rangers are 39-15-6 on the season and 20-7-2 at home. These two teams have met twice this season with the Devils winning 2 of the 3. New Jersey has won the last two meetings between these two teams, which included a 1-0 victory in New York on the 7th of this month. The Devils are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 road games, and 11-1 in their last 12 games as a road underdog. The Devils have also won 4 straight games vs divisional opponents. The Rangers are just 2-5 in their last 7 games vs divisional opponents. We're getting very generous odds on a Devils team that I could see going into New York and taking their third straight against the Rangers. Take the Devils.

Nashville Predators 135

The Kings are getting a lot of respect here even though they've lost 9 of their last 12 games. The Kings are 28-22-12 on the season, and 12-9-8 on the road. They are averaging just 2.07 goals per game on the road this season, while giving up 2.31 against. The Predators have won 4 of their last 6 games, and the two losses came to St Louis in shootout and a 2-1 loss in Detroit. On the season Nashville is 36-19-7 and they are 20-7-5 at home. Nashville has won 16 of their last 21 home games, and are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Nashville is scoring just under 3 goals per game at home at 2.97, and are giving up 2.41 per game. With both teams on the first of a back to back we don't have any goalie confirmations, but given their opponents tomorrow we can expect that we will see Quick and Rinne in net tonight. Both are solid goalies, and goals should be at a premium. Tonight's game comes down to who can create offense, and the Predators have been doing a lot more of that lately. Nashville is hard to beat at home, especially when they manage to score 3+ goals. I like The Preds to win tonight at home.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 3:42 pm
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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Kansas/ Oklahoma State Under 134.5: The Jayhawks have played some low scoring games on the road this year Under is 7-0-1 in their road games this year) as their road games have averaged just 127.1 ppg overall, including just 119.3 ppg in their last 3 away from home. Kansas has played dynamite defense this year, especially on the road, where they have allowed just 59 ppg overall and just 60.5 ppg in their Big 12 road games. Kansas did allow 86 points in the OT game vs Missouri last time out, but they had allowed just 56.2 pp[g in their previous 5 games. Kansas did not play good defense in their last game and they did allow 66 points to the Cowboys in the first meeting so you can expect them to really clamp down at that end of the floor in this one. The Cowboys do not like to run and at home they may be able to control the tempo some, which should limit possessions here. The Cowboys have also played good defense at home, where they have allowed just 62 ppg on 37.9% shooting and just 64.1 ppg at in Big 12 home games. OSU has scored 69.9 ppg at home, but I feel feel that Kansas can stop them here. The Jayhawks may also come out a bit flat after the HUGE win over Missouri and that could limit the early scoring,, meaning these teams will have to score a ton in the second half for this one to lose. I don't see it happening as these teams combine for under 130 points in this one.

Baylor/ Texas Tech Over 129.5: At least 130 points have been scored in each of the last 10 meetings, including the first meeting this year that put up 133 points. Baylor averages 76 ppg at home and they have averaged 77.6 ppg in their last 10 meeting with Tech. Tonight they will be taking on a Tech team that has allowed 68.7 ppg on the road, including 73.5 ppg in their last 4 away from home. This team may be tiring a bit at the defensive end down the stretch and playing a high scoring team like Baylor can only help us here. The Red Radiers have scored more than 57 points just once in their Big 12 road games this year, and they should be good for at least 57 points in this one vs a Baylor team that has allowed 65 ppg in their last 5 games. I feel that Baylor should be good for no less than 75 points in this one, while the Red Raiders should grab 57+ of their own here. This game should hit at least 135 points.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Notre Dame +6.5 over GEORGETOWN: Google News Play. Being an Irish fan it is difficult to make picks on their games sometimes, but I really do feel they can keep this one close. Notre Dame had a very bad game vs St John's, especially from long range, where they were just 4 of 31, but this team is too good a shooting team to have that happen two games in a row. Notre Dame has also been excellent on defense this year, allowing just 61.6 ppg overall and 58.6 ppg in the Big East and the play at that end of the floor is a big reason why I feel they can keep it close here. Mike Brey really brings out the Burn Offense a lot more in their big road games and it has payed off for them in the last few years. I expect him to use it well again here as Notre Dame limits the possessions for a good Hoya offense, while their own offense gets back on track after a horrible showing on Saturday. This one will go down to the wire.

Kansas -9.5 over OKLAHOMA STATE: The Jayhawks are off a huge emotional win vs Missouri over the weekend, but they did not play all that well for most of the game and Bill Self is not happy about it. Kansas trail for much of that game by DD until a late rally allowed them to get into OT before finally winning it. An argument can be had that this is a letdown spot for them, but I don't think so. Kansas is in a fight for a number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, plus a win here gives them the outright Big 12 regular season Title, so this is still a team that needs to stay focused and play well down the stretch. OSU has played well at home in Beating Missouri, Texas and Iowa State, but I do not believe this is a good spot for them to be playing Kansas, As the Jayhawks are the much better team here, they are a bit ticked off and still have a ton to play for. Kansas by 13 or more here.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 3:43 pm
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Sharky Sports

Georgetown -6

This is a good spot for Georgetown. Last home game for an absolutely dominant home team (14-1 for the season) who is looking for momentum heading into the Big East tournament and to retain their 12 seed. Notre Dame is a very dangerous team, but not so much away from home where they are a mere 5-4 for the season. That record is indicative of their struggles on the road, especially offensively where they are averaging only about 55 ppg’s. This team especially seems to have trouble from long range away from home which is a crucial part of their offense, as is evidenced by their recent upset loss to St. John’s where they went a despicable 4-31 from long range. Usually you expect a disciplined and fundamental team like Notre Dame to bounce back strong from atrocious shooting games like their last one, however Georgetown is the last place you want to head to after a poor shooting outing. For the season, Georgetown is holding opponents to an incredible 28.5% from downtown, and this can be attributed in large part to their long, athletic defenders who close out nicely on the 3. Offensively, Georgetown really excels at home and their athleticism and speed should be in full effect tonight. Lastly, Georgetown’s probably the third biggest team in the Big East behind Syracuse and USF, and what this means is that all positions from point guard to center rebound exceptionally well. Even with Cooley down low for ND, Georgetown still has an edge on the boards, and holding a very good shooting team like ND to one shot per possessions is crucial. Overall, I think Georgetown controls this game throughout and takes care of business at home, and I don’t think Notre Dame executes nearly as efficiently in such a hostile environment.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 5:10 pm
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Hollywood Sports

Ducks at Avalanche
Prediction: Under

Anaheim (27-25-4-6) has won two games in a row after their 3-1 win against Chicago yesterday. The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to two goals or less. Anaheim has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total following a victory. The Ducks have also played 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Colorado (32-27-3-1) has won three games in a row after their 4-3 win in Detroit on Saturday. The Avalanche are playing their third game in the last four days -- and the Under is 4-1-1 in Colorado's last 6 games played in the 3-in-4 situation. The Under is also 5-2-2 in the Avalanches' last 9 games played at home as a favorite. Take the Under in this one.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 5:19 pm
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Eric Williams

Notre Dame vs. Georgetown
Play: Notre Dame +6½

NCAAB bettors have an easy selection on their hands when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish battle the Georgetown Hoyas tonight. Georgetown has recorded a dismal 3-8 ATS mark in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning SU record while the Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in the L/5 meetings against Notre Dame while the Underdog in this Big East rivalry has gone 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall. Keep it simple and back the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to cover the spread with a bit of room to spare!

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 5:20 pm
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Doug Upstone

Kansas / Oklahoma State Under

Kansas had to come from 19-points down to defeat Missouri in overtime and has to quickly turnaround and play at Oklahoma State tonight. On Monday, Play Under on road teams like Kansas when the total is between 130 and 139.5 points, after a close win by three points or less, with one or fewer starters returning from a year ago. (37-15 the L5Y)

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 5:21 pm
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Free NCAAB release for 2/27: Oklahoma State +10 (-110 Topbet) over Kansas. Oklahoma State is showing solid value getting this many points at home against the Jayhawks. The last three meetings in this series took place in Kansas, where the Jayhawks won all three games straight up. But the Cowboys covered in two of those three meetings. In the last two meetings that took place in Oklahoma State, the Cowboys won both games straight up as home underdogs of +6 and +11 respectively. Oklahoma State is a solid 11-3 at home this season and it is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers to be catching double digits here. There is no doubt about it that they play their best ball at home, averaging 70 points/game and holding visitors to 38% from the floor. Oklahoma State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win, and an empty 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5. We'll take the points with the home dog here, Oklahoma State +10. Our free plays are 167-89-1 all-time. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to receive the best free basketball picks on the internet. Thank you, and best of luck tonight.

 
Posted : February 27, 2012 5:33 pm
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