Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 28,2011

Sam Martin

Phoenix Suns at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets

Good line value with the home dog here as they face a Phoenix team that not only played last night in Indiana (won 110-108) and take on this Nets team without rest, but are also caught in a lookahead spot with a game in Boston on deck. New Jersey isn't awful as a home team this year, especially against teams from the Western Conference as they are a stunning 9-1 ATS this season. Jersey shocks Phoenix with the outright win! 5* Play on New Jersey.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Villanova at Notre Dame
Play on: Villanova

Doesn't Villanova "have" to win here? The Wildcats are off back to back outright losses as home favorites (to Syracuse and St. John's) and are now 0-6 ATS their last six games. They beat Notre Dame by 18 in Philly last yeear and if they can win by that margin once, they can defeat the Irish again. Two years ago, they came to South Bend and won by 17. Take the points.

Terron Chapman

Phoenix Suns vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets +2

The Phoenix Suns have swept the season series three times in the last four years against the New Jersey Nets and will look to do so with a win Monday night in the Meadowlands. Phoenix has won four straight at the Prudential Center and eight of the last nine in the series, including a 118-109 overtime victory on Jan. 12.

The New Jersey Nets dropped their fifth game in a row Saturday, 123-108 to the Houston Rockets. The loss dropped the new look Nets to 2-8 at home this month. All-Star point guard Deron Williams is still trying to get acclimated to his new surroundings, shooting just 8-for-25 from the floor in his first two games.

Don’t look now, but the Phoenix Suns are making a push for a playoff spot. The Suns have won three straight out of the All-Star break and seven of their last nine overall. They held on for a 110-108 overtime victory in Indianapolis Sunday after blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead, thanks to a game-winning jumper from Channing Frye. The win improved the Suns to 2-0 on their current six-game road trip.

With the Celtics up next, one may have to question the focus of the Suns who will be battling fatigue playing their second game in as many nights. Others may question the motivation of the Nets who may have their focus on the other side of the Atlantic already. New Jersey heads to London after Monday’s game for a two-game series against the Toronto Raptors.

However, we expect an inspired effort from the home team before they embark on their trans-Atlantic journey. Monday’s contest will mark the debut of Deron Williams in front of the home fans, which is sure to provide a jolt to a team in desperate need of one. Williams is more than capable of changing the Nets recent misfortunes against the Suns and Monday is shaping up as the perfect platform to do so.

The Nets know they let one get away in the first meeting in the desert, blowing a 15-point fourth quarter lead. With an extra day to prepare and revenge on their minds, look for an inspired peformance from the home team as they catch the visiting Suns looking ahead. Take the host at your sports book. Play on the New Jersey Nets (+) the points for 1 unit.

Cajun Sports

Villanova vs. Notre Dame
Play: Villanova +4.5

Villanova has stumbled up late and in the process have fallen from the tournament seeding standings to an uncertain position which could mean they miss the tournament altogether if they do not right the ship quickly. Even with their recent troubles this is a very dangerous Wildcats squad, in fact pulling the outright upset is certainly not out of the question against an Irish team that may not be at full strength. We know that Notre Dame is 21-39-1 ATS coming off an ATS win in their last game and now installed as a favorite. If that win came at home, their record is only 8-19 ATS in their next contest. When the Irish enter off an ATS win as a favorite and are now playing on their home floor have posted a record of 10-23 against the number. Nova on the other hand coming off back-to-back against the spread losses and now installed as an underdog is a very dangerous team with a record of 11-3 ATS in their next contest. The Wildcats have done a nice job of bouncing back off two straight up losses when playing on the conference road going 10-2 ATS their last twelve in that situation. If they are installed as an underdog in that situation, they are a moneymaking 9-1 ATS their last 10 and 8-1 ATS if they are a road underdog. With strong technical support for the visitor, we will back them here as they take the Irish right down to the wire on Monday night.

Craig Trapp

Kansas State vs. Texas
Play: Kansas State +9.5

Texas looks like a team that has hit the wall after two losses in last few weeks. Defensively TEX looks to have reverted back to some bad habits from last year. KST on the other side has been playing some of the best basketball in the nation as Pullen is playing back to his form of last season. To me this is a important game for KST seeding in March madness whereas TEX looks to have locked up #2 seed no matter what. KST has chance to win late but definitely covers!

Tom Freese

Phoenix Suns vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: Phoenix Suns -2

New Jersey is 17-42 straight up this year. The Nets are 2-9 ATS their last 11 home games following a road trip of more than 7 days. New Jersey is 1-4 ATS their last 5 games overall. The Nets are 1-4 ATS on Monday and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 meetings with the Suns. Phoenix is 30-27 straight up this year. The Suns are 12-3 ATS their last 15 games after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Suns are 5-0 ATS their last 5 Eastern Conference. The Suns are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games overall. The Suns are 10-4 ATS their last 14 games off a straight up win.

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Lakers -1

The Nuggets have looked good since trading Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks posting a 2-1 record straight up and going 3-0 against the spread in those games. The Nuggets are now a more athletic team and have some depth, but Atlanta can counter that depth and athleticism with their roster. The Hawks looked like a different team since trading away Mike Bibby for Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich brings much better defense to the team and it showed in their blowout win over the the Warriors as they held a high scoring Golden State team to just 79 points. I look for another solid defensive effort tonight in Denver. The Hawks are 14-5 against the spread in the last nineteen meetings between these tow teams. Take the points.

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards

When the Bulls take on the Wizards in Washington Monday night Chicago will be up against it, according to our database. That's because the Bulls enter off a win and cover over the Bucks with a double revenge affair up next versus the Hawks. With Chicago just 2-13 SU and ATS in games before taking on Atlanta and the Wizards 10-2 ATS off a loss in this series, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Michael Alexander

Boston Celtics vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Boston Celtics -4.5

UTAH is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season

BOSTON is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season

UTAH is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Texas -8.5

Expect the Longhorns to bounce back strong in their final home game following Saturday's upset loss at Colorado. Tied with Kansas atop the conference, Texas has plenty to play for. Plus, the Horns will draw added motivation from last season's 9-point loss at K-State. The Wildcats have finally gotten it going, winning 4 in a row and 6 of their last 7. They haven't done much on the road, however. In fact, the Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Looking back, the Wildcats are a poor 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. After giving up 91 points to Colorado, expect the Longhorns to really tighten the screws on the defensive end tonight. We're talking about a team that has only allowed 57.8 ppg on its home floor this season. I really believe the Texas defense will be the difference in this one. After all, K-State is just 2-8 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams holding the opposition to 42% shooting or worse on the season. Take Texas.

Matt Fargo

Northern Colorado vs. Idaho State
Play: Idaho State +7

There is definite value on the home team in this matchup. Idaho St. is coming off a blowout loss at home against Weber St. last Tuesday but that time off is definitely to its advantage in this one. The Bengals are still a healthy 7-4 at home this season and if there is a ‘must win’ game, this is the one. In order to make the Big Sky Tournament, they need to win here and at Montana St. on Wednesday and that would give them the berth as they would win the tiebreaker based on the head-to-head sweep. Northern Colorado has won three straight games and six of its last seven and it is in good position to take home the Big Sky Conference regular season title. A win here and then a home finale win over last place Sacramento St. gets the Bears the top seed in the conference tournament and with that comes the honor to host the semifinals and finals on their home floor. That obviously makes this a must win road game and the linesmakers have taken that into account by severely overadjusting this number. This is also a revenge game for the Bengals which went into Greeley and were hammered by 20 points. They shot a mere 25 percent from the floor including 10 percent from long range and they put up a season-low 37 points. Idaho St. followed that up with a much better effort in its next game as it lost a narrow decision at Weber St. and was easily able to cover the number. I bring that up because the Bengals scored only 39 points in its last game on Tuesday so another rebound effort is in store. There will be some added emotion as this is the final home game and four players will be honored on Senior Night. Broderick Gilchrest, Mike Lacey, Phyllip Taylor and Deividas Busma are playing their last home game tonight after spending a combined 15 years in Pocatello and all being key contributors. Play on home teams revenging a loss where they scored less than 50 points and coming off a conference loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 35-14 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Idaho St. Bengals

Ben Burns

Boston @ Utah
PICK: Utah +5

The Jazz are off a disappointing 120-116 loss at Detroit on Saturday. That was the final game of a road trip though and they were coming off a victory at Indiana on Friday, while playing their third game in four days. The Jazz are back home now though and they had yesterday off. I feel they're providing us with solid value.

While the team is obviously a lot different now, note that the Jazz have enjoyed recent success against the Celtics. Last season, they beat them by a score of 110-97 here.

The Jazz are 50-32 the past few seasons, after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. During that stretch, they've gone 28-16 (27-17 ATS) when coming off an upset loss as a favorite.

After the loss to Detroit, Utah coach Tyrone Corbin said: "We are just looking for something good to happen so that we can start feeling good about ourselves..." A victory over the Celtics would certainly "fit the bill" and I look for Corbin's team to go all out in an effort to get one. Consider grabbing the points.

Ray Monohan

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings -1

Yes I'm well aware the Clippers have owned the Kings in 3 games so far this year but I just don't see it happening tonight with the way the Clips have been playing recently. (The Clippers have dropped four straight and are 5-24 on the road.) Throw in the fact that Baron Davis is now gone to Cleveland, and the 29.3 points from Eric Gordon is also missing tonight and I'm backing the home team in this one. Watch for some bragging rights to be on display tonight between Cousins and Griffin. I like Cousins, the Kings rookie FW is shooting 34.4 percent over his past five games. Trends I like for this one tonight include LAC are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. LAC are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Clippers are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 Monday games. Kings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, plus they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.

Jack Jones

Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics have their new pieces in place in Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green, and now Shaq is expected to return to the line-up tonight. The Jazz (32-28) have been spiraling down the standings for a while, losing 15 of 20 to drop from third place in the Western Conference to ninth. The Jazz are also 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. A matchup with Boston won't provide the best opportunity for Utah to break out of its funk. The Celtics beat the Jazz 110-86 on Jan. 21 in Boston, getting 21 points from Kevin Garnett and 20 from Paul Pierce. No Utah player scored more than 12, and the starters combined for a season-low 38 points.

This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs (UTAH) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Utah is 6-18 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Now that's a trend worth backing tonight as the Celtics take down the lowly Jazz with ease. Roll with Boston Monday.