Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 4

Sean Murphy

Carolina vs. Toronto
Pick: Under

What to expect: These two teams are coming off very different games, as the Hurricanes were involved in a wild 5-3 loss in Philadelphia on Saturday, while the Leafs suffered a narrow 1-0 setback at the hands of the Bruins. Five of the last six meetings in this series have totaled five goals or less, and I expect more of the same at the ACC on Monday night. The 'Canes rank near the bottom of the league in terms of goals allowed, but they won't face a particularly stiff test on Monday. Toronto is having a tough time generating a consistent offensive attack right now, and has topped out at three goals in its last six matchups against Carolina. We've seen some positive signs from the 'Canes offensively, but there's a good chance they'll run into James Reimer between the pipes for the Leafs tonight, and he's been red hot over the last couple of games. On Saturday, Reimer nearly stole a win for the Leafs, stopping 33 of 34 shots against the Bruins. Both teams have been struggling with the man advantage, with the 'Canes converting on just one of their last 16 power play opportunities, and the Leafs making good on only two of their last 22 PP chances. Don't let that high-scoring game involving Carolina on Saturday cloud your thinking. One night earlier, the 'Canes skated to a 1-0 victory over the Senators. I simply see both teams trending toward the 'under' right now.

Bruce Marshall

Fairfield vs. Siena
Pick: Siena

We're normally not going out of our way to recommend Siena. But upon inspection tonight, maybe the Saints are worth a closer look. After all, they have been a very tough customer at home, covering four of five vs. Metro-Atlantic foes. And they have some intriguing balance, with four scorers tallying between 12-13 ppg, led by PF O.J. Anosike (12.7 ppg), who holds down the fort on the blocks. Meanwhile, Fairfield is hard-pressed most nights to reach 70 points as it lacks a go-to scoring threat outside of G Derek Needham (14.7 ppg and only DD scorer on roster). Points definitely worth a look with the scrappy Saints.

Sam Martin

Notre Dame at Syracuse
Prediction: Notre Dame

Syracuse returns home after back-to-back road losses at the hands of Villanova and Pittsburgh, and while we do think the Orange will bounce back with an outright win on their home court, we do not think they can cover this big number. It was recently that Louisville was in a similar spot - playing on their home court and looking to stop the first losing skid of the season - and they did just that but they were not able to win in a blowout and cover the spread. Syracuse only scores 66 points per game in Big East play, and takes on a Notre Dame squad that is solid on the road (5-2 straight up and ATS) and scores 68 ppg vs. Big East foes. Syracuse wins outright, but not by much.

Marc Lawrence

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

How can a team that has lost eight straight in the series including getting swept out of last years playoffs pull off an improbable road win, you ask? We admit we may be putting the SU cart before the ATS horse, so let us back up a bit. Yes, the Mavs have already lost a pair of games to the Thunder this season. However, they have more than held their own in both contests, dropping each in overtime (by 6 in OKC as double-digit dogs and by 3 at home as 5.5-point pups). Those two losses also bring their 34-12-1 ATS mark on the road with same-season double-revenge exact into play, including 24-3 ATS versus a .626 or greater foe. And despite the recent SU setbacks, Dallas has covered 12 of 18 in this series since the 2010-11 season. Cuban?s crew ? as of press time ? is also a league-best 11-3 ATS since the calendar has hit 2013. That doesn't figure to change tonight as we fully expect the Thunder to get caught looking ahead to a Warriors squad on Wednesday that defeated them in Golden State a few weeks earlier. As it is, Oklahoma City is 12-19 ATS before taking on the Warriors, including 0-10 ATS versus a sub .500 opponent. So with the ATS horse firmly in hand, well grab the points. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dallas.

Brad Diamond

Fairfield @ Siena
Play: Siena

Difficult choice this evening because of the points involved, but still would take a shot with the Saints at the current price of +7 1/2. Hard to believe but, the Connecticut MAAC unit has jumped out of last place in the conference. They were able to do so after putting together wins over Rider (7-5) and St. Peter’s (2-10). In the MAAC at home Siena is 3-3 SU with opposing Fairfield 3-3 SU on the road. After hovering at 10-10 SU the Stags have won three straight setting the pace against Rider last time out 69-59. Fairfield had 17 points after a turnover and 17 points in second chances. Their aggressiveness simply over took the 11-12 Broncos.

Critical for the Saints is to forge a lead early and then keep pace with the more talented visitor. Siena does bring 4 players to the floor hitting double figures. They have won 7 of 11 in the series going into Charity Night (Bridgeport). Remember, the reason why the Saints have found little respect from Uncle Vegas is their earlier 11 game losing streak. However, former Villanova player (1985 National Championship Team) and assistant coach and current HC at Siena, Mitch Buonaguro will tell you, “I have four sophomore starters.” Obviously, they are just starting to jell into an improved unit after being thrashed early in the season. Over their last three games the offense has perked up putting 71.3 points per on the stat sheet. Defensively, they will continue to use the old Villanova Zone to help frustrate the offensive talent of the Stags. In 4 MAAC victories this season that zone has held the opposition to 61.2 points on average. If they can curtail the Fairfield offense to 75 points (0-3 SU 80-89) they will get the cover with the hefty number. The UNDERDOG is 5-1 ATS the L6 in the series.

Dave Cokin

Oklahoma vs Iowa State
Pick: Oklahoma

I'll try to bite the hand that just fed me tonight. Iowa State was the Saturday free play and the Cyclones came through with the win and cover against Baylor. I see this contest being tougher for the hosts. Oklahoma has exceeded expectations this season, and that's no surprise to me. Lon Kruger might not be a super blue chip recruiter, but he remains a top flight game coach and he's coaxing max results out of the Sooners this season. Oklahoma has been especially tough off a loss, with a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS ledger. Fred Hoiberg continues to impress with his work at Iowa State, and the Cyclones are still perfect at home. But I see this game coming down to the last few possessions, and the number looks high enough to warrant speculating on the underdog, so Oklahoma plus the points is tonight's free opinion.

Jim Feist

Charlotte Bobcats vs Miami Heat
Pick: Miami Heat

The Charlotte Bobcats won't be expecting a win here tonight at Miami, but that isn't unusual. The Cats have won just two of their last 13 games. Charlotte is 1-4 ATS their last five and in their last two games they have been outscored by a 211-173 margin. The Cats are 19-39-1 ATS their last 59 games. The Heat played on Sunday, so we have to be a bit careful how much their stars will get time here tonight against an overmatched opponent. The Heat have done well against poor teams, posting a 6-2 ATS mark their last eight times against a team with a .399 or less winning percentage. If it was any other team than the Bobcats, I might look to take the dog here, but Charlotte just doesn't have the manpower to hang in there against even the subs of the Heat.

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +110 over TORONTO

The Hurricanes have lost more games than they've won as a result of shaky goaltending. Cam Ward figures to warm up soon and when he does, Carolina is going to take off. The 'Canes lost at Philadelphia on Saturday but outchanced, outworked, and out-shot (42-24) the Flyers by a wide margin. In a 5-1 loss to the Panthers on opening night, they did the same thing, outshooting Florida 42-25. In a 4-1 loss to the Lightning, they again outworked their opponent, had more scoring chances while outshooting them 36-26. Carolina will get rewarded for their dominant play and while there are no guarantees, this team is winning too many battles to keep losing. Carolina has played some of its best hockey over the years at this venue and that's with lesser talented squads than the one they'll ice here. The 'Canes are still under the radar and we're not about to let this opportuunity slip away.

ANAHEIM -102 over San Jose

OT Included. Still without a regulation defeat, the Sharks enter this one with the second best record in the league, sitting a single point behind the Blackhawks. However, we're starting to see some cracks in their armour. The Sharks’ last three games, against Anaheim, Edmonton and Nashville have all gone into OT and they were all at the Shark Tank. When they played the Ducks last week, they managed just 18 shots on net and were soundly outplayed in the final two periods. They've had nothing but misery against the Ducks with just two wins in the past eight meetings and just one win in the past four at The Pond.

Anaheim has five wins against just one regulation loss this season. They've played less games than anyone so they come in to this game fresh, confident and ready to hand the Sharkies their first regulation loss of the year. The Ducks have two, seven goal outbursts and a five game output in six games this season with the seven goal games coming against Los Angeles and Vancouver. That's just an indication of how explosive this year's edition is. Jonas Hiller is 4-1-0 with a 1.74 goals-against average and two shutouts in his last six home games against the Sharks.The Ducks have won three in a row at home, they've picked up points in four straight and they're wrongly penciled in here as the pooch.

JR O'Donnell

Pittsburgh -16.5

Jr O has this ball game Power Rated @ - 20 we will call for a blow out @ the Peterson Events Center.... No lay down here for a Pitt Panthers team with swagger!! 2 ball clubs in opposite directions as the Pirates will get pounded on the road.. Pirates are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings & Favorite holds serve 5 and 1 ats last 6.

John Ryan

Seton Hall at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Pittsburgh

The simulator shows a high probability that Pitt will win this game by 16 or more points. Pitt is one of the best offenses in the country using superior ball movement to get the best possible team look at the rim. They rank third in the nation posting a 1.594 assists-to-turnover ratio and fourth with a 17.2 average scoring margin. Pitt has the physicality and size to pound the paint tonight against an undersized Seton Hall team. Pitt only takes 14.1 3-point shots per game and that ranks 314th in the nation. Pitt ranks ninth in the nation making 49% of their shots and I highly expect they will shoot closer to 55% in this game tonight. Sim shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will hold SH to fewer than 60 points. Pitt is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game this season. Take Pittsburgh.

Jimmy Boyd

West Virginia -5

Texas has really struggled on the road this season (1-6) and now must travel way out East to play a underrated West Virginia team. The Mountaineers are just 3-5 in the Big 12, but three of those five losses have come by 5-points or less against the likes of Oklahoma, Kansas State and Iowa State.

The Longhorns have won two of their last three games, which I believe has them slightly overvalued here. Those two victories came against the two worst teams in the conference in TCU and Texas Tech.

When you add in the fact that West Virginia has already went on the road and beat Texas by a final score of 57-53, hard to not like the Mountaineers chances of winning this game by at least 6 points. Texas is just 4-14 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss to an opponent since 1997.

Jack Jones

Philadelphia 76ers -7.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have turned things around here of late as they look to make a push for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They currently sit 3.5 games back of Boston for that 8th spot, so they cannot afford to take any nights off from here on out.

Philly has won three of its last four games overall with blowout wins over New York (97-80), Washington (92-84) and Sacramento (89-80). Its only loss during this stretch came by a mere three points to Western Conference power Memphis (100-103).

The wheels have completely fallen off in Orlando. The Magic have lost nine straight while going a woeful 1-8 ATS in the process. Dating back further, Orlando has lost 20 of its last 22 games overall while posting a 7-14-1 ATS mark.

Making matters worse for the Magic right now is their injury problems. Glen Davis (foot) is out indefinitely, while Jameer Nelson (forearm) and Arron Afflalo (calf) are questionable to play tonight. Afflalo, Davis and Nelson are three of their top four scorers, combining to average 46.7 points/game.

The Magic are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Orlando is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic division foes. The Magic are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games. Bet the 76ers Monday.

Jeff Alexander

Washington Wizards +3

The Clippers have really been struggling without Chris Paul and are now 2-6 in their last 8 games. They are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9. Washington, on the hand, has been revitalized by the return of John Wall. The Wizards are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and have won 5 of their last 6 games at home. These wins haven't just come against bottom feeders as two of them came against the Thunder and Bulls. The Wizards are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Dave Price

Oklahoma +6.5

Iowa State is good at home and the public is well aware of that. Oddsmakers have set an inflated line in an attempt to take advantage. Consider that road underdogs or pickems that check in off an upset loss at home to a conference opponent and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off a home win against a conference foe are 89-55 ATS the last 5 seasons. That's a 61.8% system in our favor here. The Sooners had won five straight against the Cyclones before losing both of last season's meetings so they will be out for some serious revenge here. Plus, Oklahoma is a rock solid 18-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.