Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Atlanta Hawks -7.5
Off back-to-back home losses to Memphis and Philadelphia, expect Atlanta to take out its frustration on a Phoenix team that has dropped 8 of 12 on the road.
The Hawks were 8-1 at home before their 2 recent setbacks so you can bet they'll be hungry here. As if those defeats alone don't provide enough incentive, the fact that Atlanta has lost 3 in a row to Phoenix will.
The Suns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Hawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Atlanta.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks -7.5
Off back-to-back bad losses, the Atlanta Hawks will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they host the lowly Phoenix Suns. I look for Atlanta to roll by double-digits behind an inspired effort.
Atlanta is still one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 16-8. Phoenix has become a bottom feeder in the Western Conference this season as they simply have not surrounded Steve Nash with enough talent. The Suns are 9-14 on the year, and they're getting outscored by 7.2 points/game on the road.
Phoenix is 9-25 ATS in their last 34 when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Suns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after 2 straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls. The Suns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet Atlanta Monday.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Idaho State +15 over MONTANA: Idaho State is just 8-14 on the year, but they have gone 6-4 in the Big Sky, so they have turned it around in conference play. Yes they have turned it around, especially of late as they come in on a four game roll, which includes a win over Weber State and an a road win over Montana State. The biggest reason for the Bengals turnaround is at the offensive end, where they have averaged 72.8 ppg in their last 4 games (Regulation Only) compared to their season average of 66.3 ppg. Tonight's task won't be easy though as the Grizzlies come in allowing 59.8 ppg on 39.9% shooting, but i really feel that the Bengals can meet them somewhere in the middle of the two numbers, as they are playing with great confidence on the offensive end. Defense, though, has not been good for them of late, as they have allowed 76.8 ppg in their last 5 overall and 72.9 ppg on the road this year, but they have allowed 67 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the first time these teams met they allowed the Grizzlies just 68 points. Montana is 9-2 at home, but have outscored their opponents by just 8.6 ppg, while Idaho State has been outscored by 11.1 ppg on the road. The Bengals lost by 24 at home to the Grizlies earlier in the year, but that was at a time when they weren't playing that well. The are now and should be able to keep this one much closer than the first meeting. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against a home team after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games. This play is 42-13 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Davidson/ Wofford Under 136.5: Davidson games have been averaging in the mid 140's on up and a lot of that is due to the fact that they have averaged 77 p;pg overall and 82.5 ppg at home, but I don't see them hitting either number tonight. Wofford has played great defense this year, allowing 61.5 ppg overall and 63.4 ppg on the road and they should be able to hold this strong Davidson offense team to 70 or less here. Wofford on offense is where we will reall get some help here. The Terriers have averaged 64.7 ppg overall, but on the road they have really struggled to score, putting up just 58.7 ppg on 40.2% shooting. The Terriers have also struggled from beyond the arc (33.9 % overall and 32.5% on the road) and in their FT shooting (65.8% overall and 60.4% on the road), so this is a unit that has problems scoring in any facet of their offense. Making it even harder for them to score is the fact that Davidson comes in playing great defense right now, allowing just 61 ppg on 39.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Wofford's scoring has been up of late, but I feel Davidson will shut the down tonight, while the Wildcats will have their own problems scoring vs this tough Terriers defense. Around 130 at best here.
Louisville/ Connecticut Over 129: Google News Play. I know that both teams have played great defense this year, but there are certain areas that both teams have had problems at that end of the floor, which could lead to this game being a bit high scoring. Neither team has defensed the perimeter all that well this year as the Huskies have allowed 34%, while Losuiville has allowed 33.3% and while neither team has been great at shooting the three ball, both teams have it as part of their offense and should get some solid looks in this one. The Huskies have really struggled on offense of late, but they did get it going in their last game as they put up 69 points on a good Seton Hall team over the weekend. The Huskies do like to push the ball and the Cardinals should oblige as they also need the uptempo game to be effective. Louisville has been able to get their running game going of late and it has translated into 73.8 ppg in their last 4 games, while they have hit 76 points or more in each of their last 3 home games. Let's also note that this should be a close game through out and that could also lead to a fouling game at the end. Still im not sure we will need the late FT's as this game could have gone OVER before the last 2 minutes are even played.
Missouri/ Oklahoma Under 145.5: I'm gonna stay away from the side in this one, but I do like the total The big win over the Jayhawks over the weekend may just aid us in this totals play as well as I expect Missouri to come out a bit flat and that should keep their scoring down in this one. Helping us out as well is the fact that the Sooners have allowed just 64.9 ppg on 40.8% shooting at home this year. The Tigers have not played great defense on the road this year, but then again the Sooners have had some troubles scoring of late as they have averaged just 67 ppg in their last 5 games. I do believe this is a letdown-look-ahead- spot for the Tigers and i do not see them going all out especially at the offensive end, while the Sooners will not be able to score much vs this tigers group that has allowed just 62.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Missouri will play this game just looking to do enough to get out with a win and that should have this one being played in the 130's and not 140's. KEY TREND--- OKLAHOMA is 14-5 UNDER (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas -3 over TEXAS A&M: In their last 6 games Texas has a 1 point loss to Missouri, a 3 point loss to KY, a 5 point loss to Baylor a win over Iowa State and a 4 point loss at Kansas State. This is a team that is right on the edge of finishing this year strong and I believe it starts tonight. Let's also play against an underdog after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This play is 38-13 over the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
LOUISVILLE -4 over UConn: Thje Huskies got a win over seton Hall over the weekend, but the pirates are fading. Louisville is the better team and should win going away.
David Banks
Portland Trailblazers
Monday nights NBA slate closes out with a good one when Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder (18-5, 12-11 ATS) storm the Pacific Northwest to lock horns with LaMarcus Aldridge and the Portland Trailblazers (14-10, 13-10-1 ATS); tip-off from the Rose Garden is slated to go at 10:00 ET with live coverage on NBA TV.
Though the Thunder head back to the road after dropping a 107-96 decision to the Southwest Division leading San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night, the loss was only the teams fifth of the season. Coach Scott Brooks outfit currently sits atop the Northwest Division standings heading into Monday nights clash with Portland leading Denver by 3.5-games after the Nuggets fell in this venue on the same night (117-97). Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook rank amongst the top 10 scorers in the league with 26.8 and 21.7 points per game averages respectively; their combined efforts currently have the Thunder ranked as the 3rd best scoring offense (100.0 PPG) and shooting team (47%). The loss to the Spurs marked the teams fourth as a visitor on the year, but 9-4 SU & 7-6 ATS records are nothing to be ashamed of when playing away from your own arena.
The Trailblazers enter their 25th game of the regular season having alternated wins in each of their last seven games played. Last time out was a win, as the Blazers took advantage of a Nuggets outfit playing their third straight game in as many days to move to 11-1 SU & a moneymaking 10-1-1 ATS as a host. Aldridge went for 29 points to improve upon his 23.1 PPG average (#7), but it was the play of Nicolas Batum off the bench who went off for 33 points on 9-of-15 shooting from beyond the arc that sparked the Blazers to the comfortable home win and cover. Portland has gone on to win and cover each of its last five home games since falling to Dwight Howard and the Magic (107-104) back on January 11th. The Blazers are an extremely balanced squad scoring an average of 98.2 PPG (#5) while giving up just 91.7 PPG (#9).
Portland snapped a streak of three straight games won by the home team in the recent series when it went into OKC and scored the 103-93 outright win as 4.5-point underdogs in these teams first divisional clash of the 2011-12 season; the under has cashed in each of these rivals L/3 meetings. Oklahoma City has covered five of its L/6 when playing off a pointspread defeat, but has only managed a 0-3-1 ATS tally its L/4 within the division. The Blazers have held up their end of the bargain against the Northwest Division covering five of their L/6, but theyve only managed a 1-6 ATS record following their L/7 SU wins.
Rocketman
Phoenix @ Atlanta
Play: Phoenix +8
Phoenix is 22-7 SU overall vs Atlanta since 1996. Hawks are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest. Hawks are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 vs. Western Conference. Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific. Suns are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Phoenix is 10-5 SU and ATS at Atlanta since 1996. We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!
Tony Stoffo
Wofford vs. Davidson
Play: Wofford +10.5
CBK Free Play - Wofford at Davidson Even though they lost on Saturday to Samford this is a big game for Wofford as the second place team in the Southern Conference tournament gets a first round bye. And with a 3 game road trip on tap for this week - I can see the Terriers coming with a top effort here against the Wildcats tonight. Wofford won't be intimidated by the Wildcats in this spot as their have already faced them this season, and Davidson came away with a 3 point win. So going with this inflated number and the Terriers here this evening. Terriers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Terriers are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Play against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Davidson) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, in February games. This solid situational trend has gone 41-15 hitting at a 73% clip over the past 5 seasons.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit DePaul +9.5
Marquette isn't the same team on the road. It has lost 4 of its last 6 away from home and neither of those wins came by more than 7 points. Plus, DePaul is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. It is actually defeating these foes by an average of 2.4 points. Motivated by an embarrassing 30-point loss at Marquette the last time these two faced off, expect the Blue Demons to give the Golden Eagles all they want and more tonight.
Black Widow
1* New York Knicks -3
Teams tend to actually play well without their superstars for the first few games they are out. Amare Stoudemire won't be playing for New York tonight as he deals with the death of his brother. I look for the Knicks to put on an inspired effort to try and win this one for Stoudemire. Utah has been great at home this season, but terrible on the road. The Jazz are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in road games this year, getting outscored by 11.3 points/game. The Knicks are playing much better of late, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings. Take the Knicks and lay the points.
Tony George
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: San Antonio Spurs +1
I am drinking the Kool Aid here. This line stinks to high heaven and I should be looking for the rat in the mix here, but I cannot figure this line. Opened at +1.5 is is dropping, looks like a set up line, but I just cannot figure it. The Spurs have played the Griz twice this season and beat them by double digits, last one 10 points at Memphis. The Griz have dropped their last 2 games and the Spurs have ripped off 4 in a row including beating Oklahoma City. I realize the Spurs have absolutely stunk it up on the road this year, and do not have a great ATS trend in this series, but Memphis has Tony Allen out tonight at guard where they are thin already!
Tony Parker went off for 42 in his last game and the Spurs are better in the backcourt and THIS IS A WINNABLE ROAD GAME. I have this line at -4 on power ratings for the Spurs and I am getting a point here. Thats a 5 point5 overlay, and I cannot for the life of me figure this line, so I am taking the point here. Memphis has struggled to 88 ppg on offense their last 5 games and allowed 91. The Spurs are a better team and can score from the perimeter.
Larry Ness
San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies
The Spurs won Saturday night at home vs Oklahoma City, 107-96. It marked the team's fourth straight win (a season-high) and came over the team with the league's best record at the time. Tony Parker (18.1-7.7 APG) scored a season-high 42 points as the Spurs upped their record to 16-9. The Spurs head to Memphis tonight, to face the team which KO’d them from the playoffs last season, in the first round (six games). The Spurs have won BOTH meetings with the Grizzlies this year, including 83-73 here in Memphis on Jan 30. This game marks the first of what is the team's annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” as the Spurs (who own a two-game divisional lead over defending champion Dallas) will play the next NINE games away from home over the next 18 days. The Grizzlies lost reserve forward Arthur prior to the start of the season and then their All Star forward Zach Randolph (20.1-12.2 last year) to a slight tear in his right MCL on January 1st. He was expected to be out of the lineup for eight weeks and an MRI taken on February 1st revealed that he is progressing well in his rehabilitation and he is soon expected to begin non-contact basketball drills. Gay (18.4-6.5) has returned from his injury last year healthy and leads the team in scoring. Speights was picked up from the 76ers and in his 18 games with Memphis is averaging 7.0-5.2, far below the numbers Randolph would be delivering. Gasol (14.8-10.3) has picked up right where he left off last year at center, while PG Conley (12.5-6.9 APG) and sixth-man Mayo (12.6) have each done their jobs well. Tony Allen (10.8-3.7) has been starting with Conley but he’s expected to miss his second straight game with Young (4.0) taking his place. Depth is an issue fro the Grizzlies and that’s NOT good news vs the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard (7.2-5.0) is starting alongside of Parker with Ginobili (17.4) out, while Duncan (13.6-7.8) and Jefferson (10.4) join undersized center Blair (9.2-5.7) up front. Splitter (9.0-5.4) and Bonner (6.9-3.2) are valuable frontcourt reserves while Neal (8.5) and Green (7.8-3.5) contribute on the perimeter. The Spurs are NOT a good road team (just 3-8 SU this season) and after back-to-back losses (Memphis lost its season-opener at San Antonio, 95-82) this year to the Spurs, I believe the Grizzlies have had enough. After last year’s playoff run, much was expected from the Grizzlies and despite those injuries to first Arthur and then Randolph, Memphis is 7-3 at home TY with a win here matching the team's best-ever 11-game home start. Take the home team.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Memphis/ San Antonio Over 185: Memphis has had some problems scoring of late and they did put up just 73 points in their last home encounter with this team, but this is still a team that has averaged 102.1 ppg at home, while the Spurs have allowed 99.6 ppg on the road this year. San Antonio has also allowed teams to hit 48.3% of their shots on the road, while Memphis has hit 47.2% of their shots at home. Memphis has played good defense at home, where the have allowed 93 ppg, while the Spurs come in having scored just 93.7 ppg on the road. San Antonio has averaged 96.4 ppg in their last 5 games overall, so their offense has increased a bit and I fully expect them to hit at least 93 in this one. The Spurs defense is tough, but they do struggle with it on the road, while the Grizzlies score a lot at home, so I don't see why they can,t get 93 of their own in this one. I see these teams combining for 190+ points. KEY TRENDS--- SAN ANTONIO is 21-9 OVER in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons, while 13-3 OVER in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
New Orleans/ Sacramento Under 182.5: The Kings have got their offense in gear a bit of late, they have average 97 ppg in their last 5 games, but this is still a team that really struggles to score on the road. the Kings have averaged just 87 ppg on 39.5% shooting, which includes a mere 29.1% from long range when they have taken to the road this year. Overall the Kings are last in shooting (40.4%) and 2nd to last in 3 point Shooting (29.3%). The Hornets have played good defense this year as they have allowed just 93.2 ppg (11th) and they are 9th in defending the three ball (32.5%), while at home they have allowed just 91 ppg. Those numbers should not allow the Kings to improve their offensive numbers. The Kings have been sorry on defense as they have allowed 101.6 ppg (30th), including allowing 102.5 ppg on the road, but fear not as this Hornets team has been very bad on offense. The Hornets are 27th in scoring (87.8 ppg) and they don't shoot the three ball well either (29.7 %). The Hornets don't score well, but they do shoot well (44.45) and that would indicate that they play a slower pace and that indication is correct as they have averaged just 78 shots per game, which is 26th in the league (74.3 spg in their last 3). Hornet home games have averaged just 179.3 ppg and with two struggling offenses, in a slow pace game here i hjust don't expect more than 175 in this one.
PHILADELPHIA -4 over Lakers: The Lakers have really dominated the Sixers in the past as they have taken the last 4 in the series and 7 of the last 8, but this is a new NBA this year and this is just not a good spot for the Lakers to be in.LA is in the midst of a long trip and they are off road games vs Utah and Denver with just 1 days rest in between. That is not good for an older team like the Lakers, especially when taking on a youthful Sixers squad that is playing with a ton of confidence right now. LA is just 3-8 on the road this year and have been outscored by 6.2 ppg in those games, while the Sixers are an impressive 12-3 at home and have outscored those teams by an average of 13.3 ppg, while in that home record they have a recent win of 16 points over the Bulls. The Lakers have averaged just 91.2 ppg on the road, while the Sixers have allowed just 82.5 ppg at home.The Sixers are playing with confidence right now and on this floor I just don't see the Lakers putting up enough points to keep this one close. Not often will I make a Sixers side play as a top play for me, but this is just one of those instances where i just can't pass it up. The Lakers may have owned them in the pay, but Philly gets some payback tonight.
2 UNIT PLAYS
NEW YORK -3 over Utah: The pressure is on the Knicks and i feel they will respond with a big home win over a Utah squad that is mired in distractions and has lost 4 of their last 7 games. It's time for all the knicks talent to come together in this one and get an easy home win.
Oklahoma City -1 over PORTLAND: OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-8 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons and 16-3 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Toronto/ Washington Over 186: The OVER is 15-6-1 in the last 22 meetings, while the OVER is 8-3 in Wizards last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
Jonathan Lee
Missouri -5 at Oklahoma
The comeback win over Kansas on Saturday gives Missouri a chance at a number one seed in about a month. The Sooners are just 3-7 in Big 12 play, and have lost 4 of their past 5 games. Oklahoma only has one senior, and is at least a year away under coach Lon Kruger from competing with the conference elite. The computer sim line for this game is -9.
Montana -13.5 vs. Idaho State
Montana is in a battle with Weber State for the lead in the Big Sky Conference. The Grizzlies are 9-1 in league play and have won 11 of their last 12 games. The AccuScore sim line is Montana -16 with the ATS records in games involving both teams are 11-7 and 11-6 respectively.
Marquette -9.5 at DePaul
Here I’m going to fade the computer which has a poor record picking ATS with both teams (13-23 combined). Marquette is coming off a poor game at Notre Dame on Saturday, and need a win to keep pace in the Big East. DePaul meanwhile is in its customary place at the bottom of the conference standings. It has one road win vs. Rutgers, but the point differential in the other four road contests (all losses) is -15.4.
Bart Lopez
Utah Jazz at New York Knicks: Over 196 points
This is a game between two teams that don’t play very good defense. The Knicks give up 95.3 points per game, good for 16th in the league. The Jazz are worse at 23rd in the league with 96.8 points surrendered per game. 196 points is a good amount, 98 per team, but I’m expecting this game to end up in the 100’s. AccuScore has the combined total being 200 points, and gives the over pick a 56.2 percent chance of success.
Portland Trail Blazers (+1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder is a one point road favorite, which sets up a very appealing home underdog game. The last time these two teams played, the Blazers won by ten on the road. LaMarcus Aldridge punished the Thunders’ front court, scoring 30 points and grabbing eight rebounds. The Thunder are a very good team, but I like the Blazers at home, in front of an intense home crowd that makes the lives of opposing teams very difficult. AccuScore’s forecast has Portland winning by three points.