Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 7,2011

Tom Freese

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Phoenix is 23-25 straight up this year. The Suns are 5-13 ATS their 18 games at Golden St. Phoenix is 4-10-1 ATS their last 15 games off a straight up loss. The Suns are 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 Conference games. The Suns are 1-4 ATS their last games as road dogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Golden St is 22-27 straight up this year. The Warriors are 17-5 ATS their last 22 games vs. NBA Pacific teams. The Warriors are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games as home favorites and they are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games off a straight up win.

Terron Chapman

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +8

After a blazing start to the New Year, the New Orleans Hornets have cooled a bit, thanks in large part to injuries to two key frontcourt players, Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. The Hornets have lost four of their last five overall, and will be out for revenge when they host the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves Monday night at New Orleans Arena. NBA TV will carry the coverage which is scheduled to tip at 8:05 EST.

With Ariza out with a severe right ankle sprain and Okafor sidelined nursing an oblique strain, the Hornets put up a valiant effort Friday night in a 101-95 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. Chris Paul led five Hornets in double-figures but New Orleans failed to have an answer for Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol as the two combined for 66 points. Quincy Pondexter replaced Trevor Ariza in the lineup and failed to score a point, while Aaron Gray scored 10 points and 10 rebounds in place of Okafor.

On the other hand, the Minnesota Timberwolves continued their losing ways Saturday, with a 113-100 loss to the Denver Nuggets at Target Center. It was the Wolves third straight defeat and ninth in the last 10 games. Minnesota can score with a talented core nucleus, led by All-Star Kevin Love. They’re ninth in the NBA in scoring (102.7 pts/gm) but last in points allowed (108 pts/gm).

The Hornets are 18-1 at home this season when holding opponents under 100 points but one has to figure that record will be put to the test Monday. The Wolves were able to push the tempo in the only meeting this season between the two, a 113-98 Minnesota win at Target Center back on Dec. 27. The Hornets have just three fast break points in the last two games, including zero against the Lakers. New Orleans is going have a hard time matching up with the Wolves frontcourt of Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and Wesley Johnson. The trio combined for 70 points and 20 rebounds in the first meeting.

It’s tough to envision the Hornets losing consecutive games at home where they’ve been tough all season (20-6). It’s just as hard to envision the Wolves winning away from Minneapolis, considering their struggles on the road this season (2-23). However, the Wolves appear to match up well with a depleted Hornets squad that will still be reeling from a loss to the defending champs. Having already defeated New Orleans, a young Wolves squad should have confidence heading in, something rare this season when they hit the highway. Look for that to be the difference in a close game; take the points. Play on the Minnesota Timber wolves (+) the points for 1 unit.

Frank Jordan

Chicago Bulls vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Chicago Bulls -2

Chicago is coming off a tough loss at Golden State as they fell apart late with a poor fourth quarter losing by double digits. Chicago is leading their division and are the third best team in the East, but if they want to be one or two they will need to step up and start winning games on the road where they are just 11-11. Portland is just three games over .500 overall, but at home they are much better with a 17-7 record. Portland has had their ups and downs versus the East at 9-9 and back in November they lost in Chicago by 12 points. Look for the Bulls lead by the 1-2 combo of Rose and Boozer to lead the way and make the memory of the poor loss to Golden State go away. Play Chicago

Charlie Scott

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia
Play: Pittsburgh +1

Although Pitt doesn't always look pretty on offense, and Morgantown is a tough place to win, I'm on Pittsburgh Tonight. Pitt has a squad made up of experienced upperclassman, plays some of the best defense in NCAAB,play physical and battle for every rebound and loose ball. Play the superior Pitt team vs WV with a limited bench at a short price !

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia
Play: Pittsburgh +1

The Panthers are the better team here and have several angles on their side tonight. They are 33-8 after allowing 60 or less, 27-6 including 8-0 this season vs opponents who allow less than 65 points per game, 15-4 with 1 or less day of rest, 5-1 on the road when the total is 130 to 135, 11-3 ats as a dog and are 3-1 as a road dog of 3 or less. West Virginia is a nice team but they do not have the same numbers as Pittsburgh. Look for a close hard fought road win for the Panthers.

JIM FEIST

CELTICS / BOBCATS
TAKE UNDER

Usually it's not a good play for the OVER when you have the best defensive team in the NBA, Boston (91.48ppg) against the 28th best scoring offense in Charlotte (93.5ppg). The Celtics have been a very good UNDER bet on the road, especially of late where six of their last seven away games have gone UNDER the number. The Cats don't crack the century mark very often, in fact just three times in their last 16 games. However, they can play some pretty good defense of their own, holding 11 of the last 16 opponents under 100 points. These clubs have already met once in Charlotte this season and the Bobcats scored just 62 points in a 155 point game. Strangely enough, those 62 points aren't the club's low against the Celtics, as back in 2009 they scored just 59. Bobcats will continue to struggle with the league's stingiest scoring defense and while we will get a low total here on Monday, I'm still taking the UNDER.

Brent Brooks

UNC-Greensboro -1

If you look at the Spartans ledger starting January 13th, you'll see four wins (yes the only four wins they have) and two overtime losses. You'll also see their last game at Western Carolina in which they lost by ten but note their resiliency on the road. They were down quite a bit to the Catamounts but rallied with a 15-0 run to make a game of it in the second half. Even though they faded, we actually have to like what we've seen from this early season whipping post.

In fact, their non-conference schedule looks like a who's who of tournament teams. That has sufficiently uglied up their record so we can gleam a little value in the right spots. I think this is one of those spots. The Citadel is a veteran team but not overly talented. Give us the home team on the upswing here.

EZWINNERS

Sacramento Kings +2.5

The Kings are coming off of a 113-100 loss against San Antonio on Friday, but Sacramento is playing some pretty good basketball right now. Prior to the loss to the Spurs, the Kings upset the two time defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers on the road and ended the New Orleans Hornets season best ten game winning streak before losing a hard fought 95-90 battle against the Eastern Conference leading Boston Celtics. I like the Kings to get back on track against the struggling Utah Jazz in this game. Utah has lost nine out of their last twelve games after a 121-105 defeat Saturday night at the hands of Oklahoma City and they have not played well on the road this season. Utah snapped a six game road losing streak which is their longest in thee seasons, with a 113-106 win at Denver on Friday night but if this game is fast paced like I expect it to be that should bode well for Sacramento. The Jazz are just 3-9 in their last twelve road games when they allow 100 or more points. The Jazz are only 3-7 against the spread in their last ten trips to Sacramento and they are 4-10-1 against the spread in their last fifteen games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Play on Sacramento..

JR O'Donnell

Detroit +2

We are backing the nasty live dog here in the #720 13-12 Mercy Titans as the sharp side. The O'ster sharp capped members play is the boys from Detroit Michigan + the small spot. The Titans will play host @ Calihan Hall where they have played well. {7-3 last 10} This 21-4 Overall Cleveland State crew and 10-3 in the Horizon league will be the public darling. How can a 21-4 Overall juggernaut only be -2 on the road???? WE ARE NOT BITING GUYS.....

This Detroit crew is looking to build a winning streak after consecutive smash mouth wins against U I C and Loyola. CSU got exposed by the Butler Bulldogs last game 73-61, These well coached boys believe in Ray Macallum and he has them pointed in the right direction. The coaches son is a flat out ball player... Freshmen Ray Macallum Jr is a former McDonald's and Parade All-American Teams in 2010 and he can take over a ball game. The Cleveland State crew has Norris Cole a real scorer. The senior guard from Dayton Ohio is averages 20.1 ppg . The sharp side here is the Titans....as the #'s are real , real strong .. The Vikings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators

The line is high, but the result will be too easy. Edmonton is awful in the underdog role, going 12-34 this season and they are 0-10 SU if they went Over in back to back games. They are also 3-17 SU playing with same season revenge. Nashville is a perfect 7-0 SU when off a home win where they shut the opponent out. Lay the juice.

Play on: Nashville

BEN BURNS

Oilers @ Predators
PICK: Under 5.5

These teams have faced each other once so far this season. The Predators won that 1/23 meeting, at Edmonton, by a score of 3-2. (Only four goals were scored in regulation.) That one stayed below the total. With an O/U of 5.5, I feel this one has an excellent shot at doing the same.

The Preds have seen the "under" go 40-29 the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. This season, their home games are averaging a mere 4.7 goals. Opposing teams manage only two goals per game here.

The Preds are off a 3-0 victory over Detroit on Saturday. That was their sixth straight game which produced five or fewer combined goals. Not surprisingly, the "under" was 5-0-1 in those games.

It's also worth mentioning that the "under" is 29-19-5 the past few seasons, when Nashville was coming off a win by two or more goals.

The fact that the Preds won the earlier meeting is also significant. I say that because the Oilers have seen the "under" go a profitable 8-3 this season, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss.

The Oilers, have a conference-low 128 goals. They're also dead last in the NHL when on the power-play, converting only 12 percent of their chances. That includes an awful 3 for 71 (4.2 percent!) recent mark. With goals likely to be "few and far between" for the Oilers again here, consider a play on the Under 5.5.

Bryan Leonard

Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +5

Terrible scheduling situation for the Celtics who are off Dallas and Orlando with the Lakers and Heat on deck. Boston played a physical game yesterday with the Magic and now must not only travel but win by a margin. The Celtics are an aging team that is not at it's best in the second of a back to back situation. The team is short handed on the bench and the key starters played extended minutes yesterday.

This is a major revenge game for the Bobcats who lost by 31 points the last time the Celtics entered this building. This is the third and final game of the home stand and Charlotte lost the first two contests outright to Dallas and Miami. We will get a full effort tonight from the host who has more of an urgency for a victory than the tired Celtics.

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta +115 over TORONTO

In perhaps its most important game of the year with a chance to finally make a move in the standings on Saturday, the Maple Leafs came up extremely lame in Buffalo. Now the Leafs will play a Thrasher team that they beat 9-3 exactly a month ago in Atlanta and you can be damn sure the Thrashers have not forgotten. The Leafs rarely beat this intruder twice in a row and surely they’re not to be trusted in doing so here. The Thrashers are reeling but they did show some serious life in a feisty 4-3 OT loss in Carolina on Saturday. They can still run out four quality lines that all can score they need to get back on track and start winning some more games. The Thrashers slipped out of the eighth and final playoff spot with that loss on Saturday and for the first time this season they woke and found themselves out of a playoff spot. That just might be the wakeup call they needed. Play Atlanta +115 (Risking 21 units).

PHOENIX -½ +115 over Colorado

The Avalanche are two points away from sitting second last in the conference after a seven-game home stand in which they went 2-5. In two home games vs the Coyotes this season the Avalanche are 0-2 and were outscored 7-2. Things have gone from bad to worse for the Av’s and in a move of desperation on the weekend they gave Peter Forsberg a contract. Three years removed from his last NHL game, this is a move that can’t turn out well. Forsberg was never that fast a skater to begin with and the speed of the game has trended upwards for years now. The Av’s are without two centers in Tomas Fleischmann and Ryan O'Reilly and they simply don’t have the depth to compensate. Both Petr Budaj and Craig Anderson are having average years and that, too, has added to its woes. The Coyotes are coming off a 1-0 win over Minnesota. This has been a very streaky team this season and they’ll play an Av’s team with a lot of confidence knowing they’ve beaten them twice already in rather dominating fashion. The Coyotes are on a 21-8 run vs the Northwest and dating back to last season they’ve beaten the Av’s four straight and outscored them 16-5. The Av’s are worse now than they were in any of those games. Play: Phoenix -½ +115 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Kansas Jayhawks -10.5

Mizzou has been fantastic at home, but it has really struggled out on the road, where it is 0-4 in Big 12 play. The Tigers have especially struggled at Kansas in recent years. The Jayhawks have won 11 in a row at home in this series, and the last 3 have come by an average of 21.0 points. Since falling to Texas, Kansas hasn't been messing around. It has won 4 in a row, and its last 3 wins have all come by at least 20 points. Kansas is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 77.7 to 60.5. Looking back, the Jayhawks are an impressive 31-14-1 ATS in their last 46 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Tigers, meanwhile, are 20-42 ATS in their last 62 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points with the Jayhawks.