Dave Cokin
Los Angeles at Philadelphia
Play: Los Angeles -9
It’s the second off back to back road games for the Clippers, following their Sunday win at Miami. Normally, that would not make laying a bunch of points the next night against a bad team the most desirable situation. But the fact this game is against the woeful 76ers creates an entirely different dynamic.
I’m not going to pretend this is a game the Clippers are going be fired up for. But unlike some past editions of the Clippers, this team has been doing a better job of maintaining the necessary focus. That’s really all it should take to dust off the pathetic 76ers.
Philly comes into this one off a rare victory. But that’s probably not the best news for the Sixers, as they are 0-7 off a win this season, and they have zero wins against winning opponents. It’s not exactly a substantial sample, but on the two occasions this season where the 76ers were at home off a win, they got absolutely mauled each time.
This is the second meeting between these teams this year, with the Clippers annihilating Philly by 31 at Staples in early January. I’ll assume the margin will be somewhat less here, but perhaps not all that much.
Philadelphia has just one shot to compete here and that’s if the Clippers dimply dismiss them and get very lazy. That can obviously happen. Just look back at the recent visit to this building by the Warriors. The champs got up by a whole bunch, went to sleep mentally and nearly ended up getting stunned in what would have been the season’s biggest upset.
But while I certainly can grasp the concept of how the Clippers can screw this up, I just don’t envision it happening. Even if it’s not the sharpest LA team we see tonight, I’ll take my chances they can win by doubles, and if they do that, it’ll be enough. I’ll side with the Clippers minus the points.
Alex Smart
Lightning vs. Senators
Play: Lightning -135
Tampa Bay enters this game playing some top tier hockey and have only lost once in the last month. The Bolts have also owned the Senators this season out scoring them 9-3 in two wins. Tampa Bays expected starting golaie tonight (Bishop) is 4-0-2 in his L/6 starts vs the Sens, along with a positing a stingy 1.62 GAA. Meanwhile, Ottawa despite of a win last time out, vs the lowly Leafs by a 6-1 count, had previous to that, lost three in a row and 5 of 6. It must be noted that the Sens have been bad bets after a 3 goal or more blow out win, going just 1-7 ATS after such an event .TAMPA BAY is 8-0 ATS L/9 against poor defensive teams like Ottawa - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year this season with the average margin of victory coming by 2 gpg.
Mike Lundin
Denver at Brooklyn
Play: Denver -126
I like the Denver Nuggets to pick up a third consecutive win and fourth in five games as they visit the Brooklyn Nets Monday night. The Nuggets defeated the Knicks 101-96 here in New York yesterday on Super Bowl Sunday so travelling won't be an issue, and they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on no rest. They're also 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400 and a solid 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Nets have recorded just one win in their last seven games and they're 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Brooklyn has taken the last three in the series, but this looks like a good spot for the Nuggets to end that streak as they're entering this game with all the momentum on their side.
Will Rogers
Blazers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -4
The Memphis Grizzlies are 9-2 in their last 11 overall, and they are a solid 19-8 at home this season. Memphis will host the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, and Portland is a lot more competitive on it's home floor. I think there is value with the Grizzlies as a short favorite at home.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Defense - The Grizzlies are still one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and they currently rank 6th in opponent's scoring average allowing 99 points per game. Former Blazer Zach Randolph is cleaning up the boards lately, with 30 rebounds in his last three games.
2. Previous History - The Blazers have won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the two teams, and Portland has only covered the spread once in it's last seven visits to Memphis. The Blazers are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
3. X-Factor - Memphis has been a good bet when coming off a loss, and their last game was a home loss to Dallas. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five when coming off a loss.
Scott Spreitzer
Blazers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Blazers +4
Memphis enters tonight's contest on a 9-2 SU run, but only one of those nine wins came against a team with a winning record (Detroit 27-25 SU). In fact, the best record of the other eight opponents is 22-28 (Orlando). Portland is on a decent 6-1 SU run, themselves, thanks mostly to the Damian Lillard / C.J. McCollum combo that's producing over 44 ppg combined. But it's not just about offense. The Blazers have held five of their last six opponents to 97 points or less. They were fierce in a 96-79 SU win as a 5-point underdog at Houston last time out, and I expect more of the same tonight. Portland has been a momentum team, on a 17-6 ATS run off a SU win as a road underdog. They've covered two of three against Memphis this season, including as an underdog in a 101-100 loss at FedEx Forum. I expect a cover at the very least tonight out of the road team and I'm recommending a play on the Blazers plus the points.
Brandon Shively
Chicago at Charlotte
Play: Under 204½
This will be the 4th meeting between these two teams this season. The first game went way over (130-105) as Charlotte was raining three pointers. The next two games went under with final point totals of 199 and 198 points. Last year, the final scores in this game were 184 (twice), 192, and 197. While the Bulls play are more of an offensive team this season, they are expected to be without Jimmy Butler tonight and Mirotic is still out. Butler is the Bulls best player and I think we see the offense stall out more and go on scoring droughts. Mike Dunleavy is working his way back into the rotation, but is still a bit rusty and is getting back into ‘NBA game speed’.
The three totals this season have been set at 193.5, 199, and 195.5. I went back the last 30 meetings between these two teams and this is the highest total yet giving us more value on the game.
This is the Bulls seventh consecutive road game now and they have lost four of their last five on the road. Charlotte has held three of their last four opponents to 98 points or less. The Hornets are only shooting 43.2% from the floor over their last five games and I see this as a defensive type game. The Bulls have lost two straight and seven of their last ten. This is a team that needs to toughen up and that starts on defense.
Marc Lawrence
Bulls vs. Hornets
Play: Bulls +6
Edges - Bulls: 12-5 ATS away after facing the Timberwolves; and 8-1 SUATS before facing the Hawks. Hornets: 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in this series when Chicago is off a loss. Look for the Bulls to avenge a 102-96 loss as 5.5-point home chalk earlier this season to the Hornets here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
Power Sports
St. John's vs. Georgetown
Pick: Georgetown
By this point of the season, you should need much more in the way of rationale for playing against St. John's. First year head coach Chris Mullin really walked into a bad situation here and so far the Red Storm are just 7-17 straight up w/ their last win coming all the way back on December 13th. So yeah, go the other way.
Georgetown is back home after an ugly week (0-2 on the road) and looking to end a 5-game ATS losing streak. The Hoyas have won just one of those games straight up, beating Creighton by a single point. Off an 11-point loss at Butler and eight-point loss at Seton Hall, John Thompson III's team really needs a "pick me up." They should get it here as they just beat St. John's, by 20, on the road last month.
It was a season-high 93 points scored by the Hoyas in that first meeting. I'm not sure if they'll get quite there again, but the offense should certainly be better here than it was against Seton Hall on Saturday (33.9 FG%). St. John's defense is giving up an average of more than 80 points per game in conference play and as a team just got torched, losing by 33, at home to Butler on Satuday. Lay the points as this should be a blowout.
Jim Feist
Bulls at Hornets
Pick: Under
A pair of strong defensive teams square off with a high total. Chicago is No. 1 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Bulls last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Charlotte is 34-16-1 under the total when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Nuggets -2½
Denver comes into this contest off a 101-96 win at New York yesterday, continuing their impressive play of late. The Nuggets have won 4 of their last 6 and covered in 7 straight and 11 of 12 overall. They are quietly just 5-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and I look for their strong play to continue with a road win over the Nets.
While Denver is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I believe that's already been taken into account with this line. Keep in mind the Nets were just a 5.5-point home dog to the Kings. Brooklyn is a mere 3-16 over their last 19 games and this is a team that's going nowhere this season. While the Nuggets are fighting to get back in the playoff picture, the Nets likely have their eyes set on the long layoff coming up with the All-Star break.
The Nuggets are 13-4 ATS in their 17 road games this season with a total of 200 or more points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference and 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games.
Larry Ness
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
This marks a quick turnaround from last night's game at Amway Center when the Magic beat the Hawks 96-94. The Hawks had the NBA's second-best record at 60-22 in 2014-15 (No. 1 seed in the East) before being swept by Cleveland in the conference finals. They again sit atop the Southeast Division despite slipping a bit this season (30-23) and they had a three-game winning streak snapped with Sunday's loss to the Magic. Atlanta rallied from 14 points down behind 24 points from Jeff Teague and 23 from Kent Bazemore, but Nikola Vucevic hit an 18-footer at the buzzer to give Orlando the win. The Hawks shot 38.5 percent after a mark of 52 during their winning streak and fell to 13-15 away from home. They're the only division leader below .500 on the road. “We have to stop putting ourselves in that situation of being down 14 on the road,” Atlanta forward Paul Millsap lamented to the media afterward. “It is unacceptable.”
The Magic surprised ALL by finishing the 2015 portion of the season at 19-13 but since Jan 1, the Magic are just 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS. The team's ATS record is only as good as it is because Orlando has gone 4-1 in its last five games, after going 2-11 ATS in its first 13 games since Jan 1. The Magic won for just the SECOND time in their past 12 games but nearly gave it away by squandering a 94-86 lead before Vucevic’s heroics. “We’ve had a lot of games where we appear to have control of the game,” Orlando coach Scott Skiles told reporters after the Magic went scoreless from just inside the four-minute mark until Vucevic’s 18-foot game winner.
Sunday’s victory by Orlando marks just the Magic’s FOURTH in the past 21 meetings with Atlanta, so expect a Hawks bounce back here. Atlanta looks to win for the SIXTH time in its last seven games at Philips Arena (5-1 SU & ATS the last six) in the completion of this home-and-home set against an Orlando team seeking back-to-back wins for the FIRST time in 2016.
Nelly
Duke - over Louisville
After it was announced that Louisville would self-impose a postseason ban this season the players responded with a strong performance on Saturday routing Boston College at home by 32. Boston College is the clear bottom team in the ACC and after three consecutive home games the Cardinals now go on the road for a difficult road test at Duke. After losing four of five in a tough January stretch Duke has won the last two games with solid wins over Georgia Tech and NC State. Grayson Allen is starting to re-emerge as one of the top scorers in the nation and the Blue Devils won convincingly at Louisville last season in the only meeting. The Cardinals have nothing but challenging games remaining on the resume and this is team with only one high end win on the season, last Monday's win over North Carolina. So far the ACC schedule has been pretty light for the Cardinals at 8-2, with only one win vs. a top seven team in the conference so far. Louisville also failed to pick up a top 100 win in the non-conference schedule as well. Duke has lost twice at home this season but by a combined total of just six points and the Blue Devils remain one of the nation's best offensive teams. Duke isn't prone to turnovers and the Blue Devils have huge shooting edges in this matchup which should help the team to deliver another key win in the ACC picture, catching a light price at home for the defending national champions with a squad that still has elite talent.
Wunderdog
New Orleans @ Minnesota
Pick: Under 210.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves have not been a playoff team in over a decade, and at 16-36 on the season that isn't about to change anytime soon. New Orleans rose to make the playoffs a year ago, but have fallen off sharply at 16-36 this year through 52 games. The fact is we have a pair of teams going nowhere here, but each will sense the opportunity to log a rare win, so expect a concerted effort from both clubs in this game. New Orleans recently completed a stretch of six games scoring 100+, but have lost four straight and have not touched 100 points in any of them. Minnesota has put together a pair of wins in their last two games for the first time since December 20. Teams off a win, playing to a high total of greater than 210, when both teams are poor and have a winning percentage from .250 to .400, have played UNDER to a 44-16 ATS mark. Make the play on the UNDER in this one.
Rocketman
Notre Dame @ Clemson
Play: Clemson -1.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish travel to Clemson to take on the Tigers on Monday night. Notre Dame is 16-7 SU overall this year while Clemson comes in with a 14-9 SU overall record on the season. Clemson is 9-2 ATS this year against conference opponents. Clemson is 8-2 ATS this year after playing a conference game. Notre Dame is only 4-6 SU on the road this season while Clemson is 11-2 SU at home this year. Clemson is allowing only 63 points per game overall this year and 56.2 points per game at home this season. Clemson has played well at home this year upsetting a few top opponents. Notre Dame off a big win over North Carolina back on Saturday so possible let down here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Clemson tonight!
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Longhorns plus the generous points at Oklahoma this Monday night.
The Sooners got stunned on Saturday, losing at Kansas State by an 80-69 count. Perhaps they were peeking ahead to this game, but the fact remains, OU is just 5-13 now their last 18 conference games against the spread, and they are catching the Longhorns playing their best ball of the season.
Texas has won 4 straight and 7 of their last 8. The Horns have also covered in 6 straight, and the road team in this series has gone 6-2 against the spread the last 8 showdowns.
Oklahoma has won 4 in a row straight up against Texas, and they may bump it to 5 in a row, but I don't see them covering this impost.
Take the Longhorns plus the points.
2* TEXAS