Brad Wilton
My Monday comp play is Tennessee Chattanooga to score the road win at Mercer.
No knock on Mercer, as they stand at 18-6, but this Moccasins team is on a mission this season, and they bring an 8 game winning streak into this contest, and are 21-3 overall this season.
The Mocs have already beaten the Bears handily this season, as Tenn Chatt took it 74-62 at home as the -5 point chalk. Tennessee Chattanooga has won the last pair of series meetings, and they have covered 3 straight against Mercer.
It will be a close on, but prefer to lay the small wood with the visitors, as they push their winning streak to 9 in a row.
3* TENNESSEE CHATTANOOGA
Don Anthony
Raptors / Pistons Over 209.5
This was going to be a premium selection but the number got away from us a bit so we'll go ahead and make it the free play.
All the trends for both teams have this game flying over the total, hence the 4 point line move. The over has cashed in 6 straight meetings between these two clubs. The Raptors are 7-0 to the over facing a team with a winning record and the Pistons are 6-0 in that same situation. That's a 19-0 combined spot right there.
In those last 6 meetings, both the Raptors and Pistons scored above 100 points. In fact, the Raptors have scored 100+ in 9 of their last 10 games and the Pistons have scored 100+ in 6 of their last 7, so both offenses are on fire in recent form.
Dave Price
Memphis Grizzlies -3
The Memphis Grizzlies have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall. They are 19-8 at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. The Blazers are just 10-16 on the road this season. The Grizzlies are 15-3 in their last 18 meetings with the Blazers, including a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home meetings. This appears to be a very generous price on the Grizzlies tonight as only 3-point favorites over the Blazers.
Brandon Lee
Magic vs. Hawks
Play:Hawks -7.5
Atlanta will be out for revenge against the Magic, after losing yesterday's meeting in Orlando 94-96. The Hawks didn't bring the intensity early in that game and fell behind by 14. The important thing is they were able to erase that deficit, which is a good sign that they will make easy work of the Magic in the rematch at home, as the intensity should be there from the opening tip. Atlanta had won the previous two meetings this season, including a 98-81 home win on 1/18. The Hawks have won 17 of the last 20 at home against the Magic and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls +6.5
I know that the Chicago Bulls are expected to be without Jimmy Butler tonight, but the oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Bulls as 6.5-point dogs against anyone, and we'll take advantage today.
The Charlotte Hornets, at 25-26 on the season, have no business being 6.5-point favorites over the Bulls in this one. Look for Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol and company to up their games tonight to make up for the loss of Butler. They will also be motivated to end a 2-game losing streak coming in.
Chicago is 59-41 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 93-65 ATS in their last 158 games following two or more consecutive road losses. The Hornets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The road team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Thunder vs. Suns
Play: Suns +13½
Phoenix certainly has been a disappointment this season but the Suns recently battled hard (and got the cover in each game) against the Raptors and Rockets. This was before falling just short of the money against the Jazz on Saturday. That said, based on the way the Suns have been playing recently (three straight losses by single digit margins) I do see a lot of value with Phoenix as a big dog here. This is especially true considering that Oklahoma City is off of a huge game with Golden State. I know the Thunder lost the game and certainly will want to respond but are they really going to be that interested in pounding a Phoenix team that they've already defeated in 5 of the last 6 meetings. This is a flat spot for a Thunder team that, although they've been winning, they've not been able to achieve significant margins. In fact, the Thunder are 5-17 ATS on the road this season and just 7-19 ATS in their games this season against teams with a losing record. Phoenix is 27-19 ATS the past three seasons in their games versus Northwest Division opposition. The Suns lost by just 4 points at Oklahoma City on New Year's Eve. Don't be surprised if this is another Phoenix loss by just single digits.
Hollywood Sports
Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Denver (21-31) looks to build off their 101-96 win at New York against the Knicks yesterday afternoon. The Nuggets have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Additionally, Denver is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. Brooklyn (13-39) comes off a 103-98 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday. The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Brooklyn is also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Lay the points with Denver.
SPORTS WAGERS
Anaheim +101 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. Evgeni Malkin was not on the ice for the morning skate, which doesn’t mean he’s out for sure and usually means it’s a game-time decision. Regardless, Pittsburgh is playing well with five wins in its last six games and points in eight of its past 10 but we’re not buyers. Four of those victories occurred against Ottawa, Philly, Vancouver and New Jersey. There’s a good chance all four of those teams will be golfing in April. When the Pens played two sure playoff teams recently, Tampa and St. Louis, they lost by three goals to both teams. In Pittsburgh's 3-2 OT win on Saturday against the Panthers, they were down 2-0 late, backup goaltender Jeff Zatkoff kicked aside 42 of 44 shots and Pittsburgh came out on the lucky end of an OT victory. Over their last 13 games, the Penguins have lost to Chicago twice, Tampa twice and St. Louis once. They probably should have lost to Florida too. The point is that good teams will beat the Penguins. They almost always give up three goals or more and that means they have to rely on their offense to score at least three times and usually more. The Pens have six wins in 17 tries against top-10 competition and the Ducks are without question one of the top 10 teams in the league and probably much higher than that. Lastly, the Penguins have goaltending issues again, as Marc Andre Fleury is in another one of his slumps that could last weeks and they pay him too much money to sit on the bench. If Fleury starts here, that’s just another reason to fade the Pens.
Obviously the Ducks are not going to run the table. However, you won’t find a team that is more worthy of backing right now. Anaheim has won six straight and have picked up points in nine straight. They have been surging up the standings for the better part of the past month and it’s all legit. The Ducks are a juggernaut of a team in every sense with the most balanced offense in the NHL, a strong defense and one of the best goaltending duos. The Ducks have scored four goals or more in six of nine and three goals or more in eight of nine. They continue to dominate shots on net and puck possession. Whether you prefer surface stats or metrics, Anaheim is a top team no matter how you break it down. We also love that this is the first game of a seven-game trip that will go a long way in deciding the Ducks playoff seeding and whether or not they’ll be at home in the first couple of rounds. At the end of the day, Anaheim is simply a must play right now when being offered anything.
New Jersey +152 over N. Y. RANGERS
52 games into the season and it is time to recalibrate; time to acknowledge the disconnect between these Rangers and the two teams that came before them under Alain Vigneault’s watch that achieved significant, albeit not ultimate, success. The individual and collective breakdowns have created a noxious mixture of doubt and passivity on the ice. The shared chip on their shoulder, the swagger — they’re history. These are essentially the same players playing under the same system, so the repeated fundamental breakdowns in discipline, defensive-zone coverage in general and defending the front of the net, specifically, are baffling.
Marc Staal and Dan Girardi have been issues. Ryan McDonagh has been equally faulty in net-front coverage, as have the defensively deficient Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle. Opponents who go to the front are left with the time and space to lay down a blanket and a picnic spread without fear of being disturbed. There’s no price to pay, except on those occasions Dylan McIlrath gets a chance. The Blueshirts break down repeatedly. Their Point A-to-Point B breakout/transition game that kick-started their speed attack the past two seasons is trapped in a maze, maybe because the defensemen either aren’t in good position or are having all sorts of trouble handling and managing the puck, maybe because the forwards are not in good enough support mode, most likely a combination of both. You’d think the Rangers would profit from getting onto the ice for hard practices where they could work on their deficiencies, but the coach, who has researched the importance of rest and recuperation obviously doesn’t agree.The Rangers look slow and unsettled. They have won five of their past seven games but those wins came against Vancouver, Carolina, Buffalo, Minnesota and Philly. Those are all borderline .500 teams. On their best day, the Rangers are a 50/50 proposition. Their 63 points, 29 wins and second place standing has them grossly overvalued. It should be noted that their outstanding (and lucky) first six weeks of the season is the reason they’re at where they are. Being without Ryan McDonaugh (who has played the most minutes on the team) and Rick Nash does not increase their chances of winning.
The Devils are rarely out of a game. Cory Schneider in goal always gives them a chance to win even if they get outplayed. New Jersey is just one of those fundamentally sound teams that are rarely caught out of position. They are not one of the bigger teams in the league but they are one of the quickest. The Devils have picked up points in seven of their past eight games. They have a seriously legit shot of picking up more points here and at this price against a very average Rangers squad, they are absolutely worth a bet.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chattanooga -2 over MERCER
While we are not generally in favor of playing road teams in evenly priced games, this one is strictly situational. Forget that Mercer is 10-0 at home and forget that the Mocs of Chattanooga are 21-3 overall. We could not care who the Bears of Mercer were playing today because they must be faded.
Mercer played on Saturday at home and buried the Citadel, 88-72. A record-breaking crowd of 4,772 jammed Hawkins Arena and fans were encouraged to use the hashtag BearStrong to show support for Jibri Bryan, a sixth-year senior and graduate student, who was shot and killed this past week while sitting in his car. That was Mercer’s first game since the shooting and they rode the emotions and crowd support to an easy victory. Bryan was one of the most popular players on the team. Tomorrow, each member of the team, coaching staff, and management will attend his funeral. There is a no chance that the Bears will bring that same emotion as Saturday, as the loss of their teammate and friend sinks in. A big time letdown is almost inevitable here so a basketball game means very little in the grand scheme of things.
One can never take the human element out of anything. In this one game there is a giant human element working against the Bears and a team as good as the Mocs should be able to come in here and bury this emotionally drained host in the follow up game after that emotional win on Saturday.
SPS Investors
Oklahoma St. vs. Texas Christian
Pick: Texas Christian
This matchup features two teams who have been struggling in the competitive Big 12 conference as the Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. With a combined 3-17 record in Big 12 play, on the surface it may seem that there is no much value backing either side, however we actually believe that due to their struggles, there is an exceptional amount of value backing the Horned Frogs in front of their home crowd in this contest tonight.
TCU managed to pick up their first conference win of the season last Saturday but had the unfortunate luck of facing powerhouses Oklahoma and Kansas in consecutive order. Not much was expected of TCU in either of those contests, given the success of their opponents this season, however they should receive somewhat of a "break" in this matchup, as they take a step down in competition against the Cowboys. The fact that TCU had squared off against quality opponents in their last few contests should make them the more battle tested team heading into this matchup.
This is also a revenge game for the Horned Frogs as earlier this season they were blown out 69-48 when they travel to Oklahoma State. Given their performance in that contest, there is no doubt that the Horned Frog players will be looking to have a much better showing at home and return the favor to the Cowboys. The Horned Frogs have been much more competitive at home this season than on the road as evidenced by their 6-1 ATS in their last 7 game at home versus a team with a losing road record and also hold wins over both Texas and Tennessee at home this season. The Cowboys meanwhile have been a less than average team on the road and have gone just 12-25-1 ATS in their last 39 games away from home. TCU is scheduled to play their next 3 out of 4 games on the road so this matchup with the road-weary Cowboys is likely their best chance to pick up a victory. This will likely be a closely contested game, but we believe the Horned Frogs will make this meeting much more competitive than the first and even challenge for the outright victory.
John Fisher
Texas at Oklahoma
Play: Texas +8
Texas has made a complete transformation from last year. Coach Smart has made these Long Horns believe. They have bought into his system and they have a toughness that says I will not back down. When they beat Baylor it was impressive because every time Baylor would make a move with home crowd backing them the Longhorns just fought back and came back stronger. Sooners are due for a bounce back game but Texas has a deeper bench and will have the energy to withstand a huge DD deficit here.
Harry Bondi
TENNESSEE CHATTANOOGA (-2) over Mercer
It’s a battle for supremacy of the Southern Conference as the league's two best teams, Tennessee-Chattanooga and Mercer square off in Macon, Georgia. Chattanooga hammered Mercer 74-62 January 5th and we look for the Mocs to complete the season sweep against Mercer who will be without their top two players, Jestin Lewis the team’s leading scorer and leading reboundeder Desmond Ringer. Tenn- Chatt is a Southern Conference powerhouse having won 8 in a row and 16 of their last 18. Mocs!