Vernon Croy
1* West Virginia
This pick falls into one of my NCAAB systems and the Mountaineers happen to be a 100% perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games when the posted total is 150 to 159.5 points. West Virginia is also 36-7 SU in their last 43 home games and they are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games when favored by -0.5 to -6.5 points. The last time West Virginia was listed as a 4.5 point favorite at home against Villanova was actually last year and they won by 21 points. Although I do not expect a blowout tonight I do like them to win by 10 points because of their strong defensive play holding opponents to just 57.8 ppg at home this season. Take West Virginia ATS as my NCAAB Free Play for Monday night.
Scott Spreitzer
New Orleans Hornets at Orlando Magic
Yesterday's win by the Magic was quite impressive. The team trailed 60-49 in the third quarter, then went on a 21-0 run, and 30-5 before Boston knew what hit them. But I'm not sure if the run said more about Boston's defeciencies or Orlando's ability. Maybe a little mixture of both. But in any case, it's going to be tough duplicating their perimeter performance. Orlando canned 11 of 22 treys, and seemingly couldn't miss during the huge third quarter run. Orlando is a 50/50 proposition in most spread categories, but they have not performed well in 2010 when laying at least as many points as they are tonight. In fact, they've covered just two of seven when laying more than seven points. New Orleans may not have Chris Paul, but Darren Collison is filling in pretty well. Collison scored 25 points in the Hornets' win over Charlotte on Saturday. He's averaging 16.6 ppg and almost 10 apg, starting for the injured Paul. The Hornets have been a profitable pup since the turn of the year. They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when getting points (2-1 without Paul) and have won seven of those games, outright. Look for this one to go right to the wire, and an outright upset would not surprise.
Play on: New Orleans
VEGAS EXPERTS
The Citadel at College of Charleston
Is there a more unstoppable force in all of College Basketball betting than The Citadel as an underdog? Over the past two seasons, the Bulldogs have gone a remarkable 22-5 ATS in the underdog role and Monday night will be taking around 7.5-points when they visit Southern Conference leader College of Charleston. Not only have we seen The Citadel perform well at the betting window when taking points, but they are also 17-5 ATS in road games, including a perfect 6 for 6 when coming off back to back SU victories. They also are playing with revenge for a six-point home loss last month.
Play on: The Citadel
LT Profits
Niagara vs Rider
The Niagara Purple Eagles have been a huge disappointment this season, but they are now fully healthy and after winning their last two games, we look for them to continue a late-season run when they visit the Rider Broncs in Lawrenceville tonight.
Niagara was expected to compete for the MAAC title as usual at the start of the year, but they have gone just 13-12 overall and they are still under .500 at 6-7 inside the conference. However, the Eagles are a different team when they are fully healthy, which they are now for the first time in a while, and they are showing positive signs, winning their last two games including a nice victory on the road at Loyola-Maryland.
That is the same Loyola team that the Broncs lost to here at home on Friday, and the Broncs have been burning a lot of money as of late, going just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games. They have also done a poor job in general of protecting their home court, going only 5-4 straight up and a terrible 1-6 ATS in their lines home games while actually getting slightly outscored by an average of -1.0 points per game vs. Division I home foes.
Niagara is also ranked considerably higher than Rider in the Pomeroy Ratings despite their disappointing record, as they rank 149 compared to 210 for the Broncs. The Purple Eagles should also be able to score more than usual here vs. a poor Rider defense that ranks a terrible 270 in the country in two-point defense, generously allowing a 50.3 percent success rate.
Finally, a fully healthy is simply the better team here, and the fact that the Broncs have had basically no home court advantage makes us like the Purple Eagles even more.
Pick: Niagara -1.5
Info Plays
3* on Illinois-Chicago +11
Reasons why Illinois-Chicago covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (IL-CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a home win against a conference rival. This is a 54-19 ATS System hitting 74% since 1997. The Flames get revenge on Valpo Monday after losing to them earlier this season in a game they were supposed to win. Bet Illinois-Chicago on the road.
Larry Ness
Niagara -1.5 vs Rider
Siena is running away with the MAAC this year (20-4 overall / 13-0 in league play) and while the Saints were expected to win the conference this year (have won the last two MAAC tourneys), Niagara and Rider were expected to be competitive. However, despite both schools returning four starters from last year's solid teams (Niagara went 26-9 and rider 19-13), both enter tonight's game with identical 13-12 marks (6-7 in the MAAC). Niagara benefitted last year from two Big East transfers, the 6-5 Benn (Villanova) and guard Garrison (U Conn). Benn's averaging 13.6 PPG and 9.7 RPG this season with Garrison (11.3-4.) joining veteran guards Lewis (16.3-4.6) and Nelson (10.4-4.3-3.0) on the perimeter. Six players are averaging between 7.3 and 16.3 PPG. Rider has five players averaging between 7.8 and 15.5 PPG, led by guards Thompson (15.5-5.2) and Robinson (13.2). Up front are a pair of 6-7 players, Gadson (11.2-7.70 and Ringgold (10.9-6.8). In fact, back on Jan 24 at Niagara, it was Gadson who scored on a tip-in with five seconds left to give Rider a 62-61 victory. Turnabout is fair play and I'm calling for Niagara to win tonight in Lawrenceville, NJ against Rider. Take the Purple Eagles.
Sam Martin
Villanova at West Virginia
Prediction: West Virginia
Tough spot for Villanova here, playing in Morgantown after a tough 13-point loss at Georgetown on Saturday. West Virginia is very tough at home, losing just once here, and that was a one-point decision against Syracuse. Nova?s defense has been looking shaky over the past couple of weeks, and they allowed Georgetown to shoot over 56% in that loss. Crowd may prove to be too much to overcome here, and we?ll lay the points with the motivated home side. Play on West Virginia.
Tom Freese
New Orleans Hornets at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
New Orleans took a big blow when Chris Paul went down with an ankle injury. David West needs to step up his game. West scores 17.9 points a game and Peja Stojakovic scores 12.1 points a game while Emeka Okafor scores 12.4 points a game and Marcus Thornton scores 10.9 points a game. Nobody else scores more than 7.7 points a game. The Hornets are 9-23 ATS as road dogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 2-6 off a straight up win. Orlando is 34-17 this year and are led by Dwight Howard and his 17.8 points a game and his 13.4 rebounds a game. Rayshard Lewis scores 14.9 points a game. Vince Carter drops in 15.8 points a game and Jameer Nelson 11.8 points a night. Five other players score between 9.8 and 7.0 points a game. The Magic are 28-12-1 ATS their last 41 games their starting five combined to play for more than 160 minutes. PLAY ON ORLANDO -
Ron Raymond
STL (+130) vs COL
The Blues are a hard working hockey team and Mason has won 60% of his starts lifetime vs. the Avs. Plus, the percentages are in our favor and the Avs haven't really been world beaters of late. Another nice value pick on the road dog. When ST LOUIS Played as road team as a Underdog - During Last 2 Years - With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G; the Blues are 10-6 SU in this cycle.
Richard Witt
Villanova +6 over WEST VIRGINIA
Cats have faced a tough logistical road over the past couple of days, but Mountaineeer crowd figures to be relatively subdued after last week's warning broadside from Huggy. WVU a better dog than a favorite, and Nova will be motivated to bounce back after no-show vs. G-Town.
Matt Fargo
3* Texas Longhorns
Just a week ago, this was billed as one of the best games of the entire season. It has lost some of its luster but it is a still a huge game for both sides and despite what has been going on in Austin, I think the wrong team is favored. Kansas reclaimed the top spot in college basketball after a thrilling road win over Kansas St. last Saturday. The Jayhawks followed that up with a closer-than-expected overtime win at Colorado before returning home this weekend and defeating Nebraska by just 11 points, another closer-than-expected win. The Jayhawks, while undefeated at home, have shown some vulnerability on the road and that is pretty evident with the last two road games going into overtime. The matchup here does not favor either side in my opinion and thus, the edge goes to the home team and one that is getting points. What happened to Texas? After starting the season 17-0 and hitting number one on the polls, it has since come crashing down. The Longhorns are just 2-4 in their last six games including a loss at rival Oklahoma on Saturday. This may not be as good as once thought but I think Texas is ready to start moving the other direction because there is simply too much talent for it not to happen. The Longhorns may have been guilty to looking ahead in the Oklahoma game but it really came down to poor free throw shooting as Texas went 10-27 from the charity stripe (37 percent) and no team is going to win games with poor shooting like that. That has been an issue this season for Texas but Kansas has not exactly been on fire either as it is hitting just 61.9 percent from the foul line in its last five games. Kansas has won six games and lost four versus Texas in the Bill Self era and that includes a 0-3 mark at the Erwin Center, 3-0 mark in Allen Fieldhouse and 3-1 in neutral court venues. Texas is 14-2 at home in Big Monday telecasts on ESPN so this is definitely one tough environment to play in for the opposition. 3* Texas Longhorns
Lenny Del Genio
W.Virginia -4 vs Villanova
Home court advantage has paid dividends in the last three 'Nova/WVU meetings and should do so again tonight as the 6th ranked Mountaineers host the 2nd ranked Wildcats. Villanova was shredded for 103 points over the weekend by Georgetown, which certainly does not look good. They were blown out here last season by 21 while giving up 93 points. Travel issues are certainly likely to have impacted Villanova, who had to deal with the snow in D.C. over the weekend. Playing in Morgantown where the Mountaineers have only lost once and are allowing an average of just 57.5 points per game makes life even more difficult. WVU has covered six straight February home games and is 8-0 ATS in games where the total is 150 to 159.5. Take West Virginia.
Stan Lisowski
KANSAS
KU enters this affair with Texas as the number 1 team in the land, and rightly so as they are 22-1 with a 22-point margin of victory. They have beaten Texas 5 of the last 6 meetings while standing 12-5 all-time against them. The Longhorns are only 1-7 ATS in Big 12 play and their defense has some big issues, particularly of late where they have given up 80 or more points to their opponents in 4 of the past 5 games.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Mavs/Warriors OVER 218.5
The Warriors are scoring 110.2 ppg at home this season while allowing 110.6 so I think there is some value in the Over here. Plus, the Warriors have played to the Under in 3 straight and they are a perfect 8-0 Over in home games off 3 or more consecutive Unders over the last 3 seasons, combining with their opponent to average 233.5 total points in these spots. Additionally, the last 3 games played at Golden State between these two teams have gone Over, as they have combined to average 227.3 total points. These two teams just combined for 211 points in Dallas last week, and I expect the pace to be a little faster at Golden State tonight. Bet the Over.
Stephen Nover
New Orleans at ORLANDO
Both Orlando and New Orleans had impressive offensive showings in its last games. The Magic scored 96 points against Boston, the top-ranked defensive team in the NBA, in a 96-89 road win on Sunday.
New Orleans upset Charlotte, the No. 3 defensive team in the NBA, on the road 104-99 on Saturday.
Don't look for a repeat of these offensive performances in this matchup.
Orlando is in a flat spot off a huge road win against the Celtics in which it overcame an 11-point third-quarter deficit. The Magic now return to Orlando, but this will be a quick stop. After this game, the Magic have to play road games at Chicago on Wednesday and Cleveland on Thursday in a nationally televised matchup.
The Magic are averaging 94.2 points in its past four games. Orlando has failed to reach triple-digits in six of its last seven games. New Orleans' Emeka Okafor is a good defensive center who won't get overwhelmed in the paint by Dwight Howard.
The Hornets knocked off the Bobcats in large part because of rookie point guard Darren Collison, who is filling in for injured Chris Paul. Collison scored a season-high 24 points. I like Collison but I don't see him scoring close to that against Orlando. The Hornets happen to catch the Bobcats in their first game back from a six-game West Coast road trip and Charlotte was flat.
I understand this isn't a good situational spot either for Orlando. But I would need double-digits to back the Hornets without Paul. New Orleans is 2-3 since losing Paul to a knee injury. Before defeating Charlotte, the Hornets had lost consecutive games to the 76ers, Suns and Thunder all at home by a combined 20 points.
The Hornets also might be without underrated shooting guard Marcus Thornton, who has missed the past two games because of a lower back bruise. He had scored 20 or more points in three of his last four games before getting hurt.
Without lightning-quick Paul to run and penetrate, the Hornets have become more deliberate. They're stressing ball movement with Collison, who has been doing a good job distributing. That style, though, doesn't lead to high-scoring matchups.
1♦ HORNETS/MAGIC UNDER