SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Atlanta (23-13, 24-12 ATS) at Boston (25-9, 15-19 ATS)
The Hawks and Celtics hook up for the second time in four days, with the scene shifting from Atlanta to Boston’s TD Banknorth Garden.
Atlanta knocked off the Celtics 93-85 as a 3½-point home favorite on Friday, but followed that with an ugly showing in Orlando on Saturday, losing 113-81 as a 3½-point road underdog. The Hawks have followed a six-game winning streak by losing seven of their last 11 (5-6 ATS), including 2-5 (3-4 ATS) on the road.
Point guard Rajon Rondo delivered a triple-double (23 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds) as Boston bounced back from Friday’s defeat in Atlanta with a 114-107 victory in Toronto on Sunday, cashing as a 1½-point favorite as it ended a three game road trip. The Celtics, who played seven of their last eight games on the road, have won three in a row and six of seven at home. All-Star forward Kevin Garnett has missed the last five games with a knee injury and is doubtful for this game.
The Hawks have topped Boston twice this season, including a 97-86 road upset as a nine-point underdog back on Nov. 13. Prior to that, the Celtics had won five in a row in this rivalry (3-2 ATS). The host has cashed in 10 of the last 13 series battles, with Boston going 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings at Banknorth Garden.
Atlanta is on ATS runs of 9-2 against Atlantic Division foes, 4-1-2 on Monday and 5-1 when playing after one day of rest. The Celtics have cashed in five of their last seven versus winning teams, but they’re in pointspread slumps of 3-7 at home, 1-4 when playing on back-to-back days and 0-5 on Monday.
The under is on streaks of 9-4 for the Hawks on the road, 8-2 for the Hawks on Monday, 10-3 for the Celtics against the Southeast Division, 23-9-1 for the Celtics on Monday and 19-9 for the Celtics when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Finally, 10 of the last 14 Hawks-Celtics battles in Boston have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Miami (18-16, 17-17 ATS) at Denver (20-17, 21-16 ATS)
The Heat continue their five-game Western Conference road swing with their one and only visit this season to EnergySolutions Arena for a clash with the Jazz.
Miami began its trip with Friday’s 109-105 upset victory at Phoenix as a six-point underdog, then followed up with Sunday’s 94-84 loss at the Clippers as a one-point pup. The Heat are just 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games (1-3 SU and ATS) on the road. The SU winner has covered in 31 of Miami’s last 34 games, including the last 14 in a row.
Utah blew out the Mavericks 111-93 as a 5½-point home underdog on Saturday, cashing for the third game in a row. The Jazz are just 6-8 in their last 14 contests, but 8-6 ATS, and they’ve lost three of their last four home games both SU and ATS dating back to Dec. 14.
Miami has won four in a row and 11 of the last 12 in this rivalry, cashing in each of the last 10 contests. That includes the Heat’s 80-70 win in South Beach as a one-point home chalk on Dec. 23. Miami is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Salt Lake City, including last year’s 93-89 win as a four-point underdog. The Heat have been a ‘dog in six of the last seven meetings with the Jazz.
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against Western Conference foes and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 on Monday. Utah is on ATS tears of 9-3 at home, 21-8 on Monday, 9-4 against winning teams and 7-2 versus the Eastern Conference, but it has failed to cover in 19 of its last 28 against Southeast Division squads.
The Heat are on “under” rolls of 8-2 overall, 5-0 on the road and 5-0 against the Western Conference, but the over is 38-17-1 in their last 56 games against Northwest Division teams. Also, Utah has stayed low in four of its last five when playing on one day of rest. However, the over is on a 9-4 run in this rivalry (though last month’s meeting in Miami stayed low).
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(6) Villanova (14-1, 10-4 ATS) at Louisville (12-4, 5-6 ATS)
The Wildcats put a five-game winning streak on the line when they visit Freedom Hall for a Big East battle with Louisville.
Villanova raced out to a 31-19 halftime lead against Marquette on Saturday but barely held off the Warriors 78-76, failing to cover as a nine-point home favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run. The Wildcats are averaging 88.8 points per game on 53 percent shooting and giving up 68.2 ppg (39 percent) during their five-game winning streak. They’ve scored more than 70 points in 13 of their 15 games.
The Cardinals are off to a 3-0 start in conference play and are coming off Saturday’s 75-68 win over St. John’s, falling short as a 13-point home chalk. Rick Pitino’s club has won six of its last seven games, with the only setback coming at third-ranked Kentucky (71-62 as a seven-point road pup). Louisville is 10-2 on its home floor, but just 3-4 ATS in lined games at Freedom Hall.
Louisville has won three straight and covered in each of the last five against Villanova. Last year, the Cardinals scored a 61-60 road win as a two-point underdog, then knocked off the Wildcats 69-55 as a 4½-point favorite in the Big East tournament en route to the league tourney title.
Villanova is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Monday and 8-3 after a SU win. The Cardinals are 42-13-2 ATS In their last 57 Big East games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 on Monday, but they’ve failed to cover in five of their last seven following a victory.
The Wildcats are on “over” surges of 8-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in league play and 7-1 after a SU win. Additionally, Louisville is on “over” upticks of 8-2 overall, 5-1 at home and 4-0 after a non-cover. However, the under has cashed in the last four meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
Oklahoma State (13-2, 6-2-1 ATS) at Oklahoma (9-6, 4-8 ATS)
Oklahoma tries to rebound from Saturday’s ugly loss at Baylor when it welcomes the red-hot Cowboys to the Lloyd Noble Center.
Oklahoma State has won seven of its last eight games, going 4-1 ATS in lined competition, and it kicked off the Big 12 season with Saturday’s dominating 81-52 rout of 22nd-ranked Texas Tech, easily covering as a seven-point home favorite. The Cowboys have now scored 77 points or more nine times and at least 65 points in all but two games.
The Sooners got walloped 91-60 at Baylor on Saturday, never coming close to covering as a seven-point underdog. Oklahoma has dropped three of its last four and is 0-4 ATS in its last four lined contests, surrendering 91, 83, 89 and 79 points in those games. For the season, the Sooners are yielding 72.7 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting, compared with Oklahoma State’s defensive averages of 61.9 ppg on 39 percent shooting.
Oklahoma State snapped a five-game losing skid to the Sooners with a 71-70 victory as a five-point underdog in last year’s Big 12 tournament. All three meetings last year were very competitive, with margins of victory of 8, 4 and 1 point, and the Cowboys covered the spread in the last two, and they’re 3-1 ATS in their last five trips to Norman, Okla. Also, the ‘dog is on a 4-1 ATS uptick in this rivalry.
Oklahoma State is on a 17-3-1 ATS roll in lined action and is on further moneymaking surges of 14-3-1 after a SU victory, 10-1 in Big 12 action, 14-3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 on Monday. On the flip side, the Sooners are in pointspread funks of 0-4 overall, 0-4 in conference play, 0-4 against winning teams and 4-9-1 on Monday.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams, and OSU carries “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 7-2 in Big 12 action, 5-2 against winning teams and 17-7 on Monday. However, the Sooners are on “over” runs of 5-0 overall, 16-6 at home and 4-0 on Monday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
The Celtics return to Beantown to host the Hawks in a matchup of two Eastern Conference powers Monday night. Atlanta limps in off a 32-point loss at Orlando Saturday night while Boston snapped a 2-game losing skid with a 7-point win at Toronto yesterday afternoon. With the Celtics just 1-10 ATS as home chalk on Mondays, look for the Hawks to get healthy here tonight. Grab the points with Atlanta.
Play on: Atlanta
VEGAS EXPERTS
Villanova at Louisville
Considering that Villanova is playing with triple revenge and that Louisville has lost outright as double-digit chalk to the likes of Charlotte and Western Carolina, we don't know what the oddsmakers are thinking here in installing the Cardinals as a small home favorite. Both of those aformentioned losses occured here at Freedom Hall. Villanova has lost just one time all season and is 25-15 ATS coming off a straight up win.
Play on: Villanova
Frank Jordan
Villanova vs. Louisville
Play: Villanova +3
There was a big upset in college hoops Sunday as number 1 Kansas lost at Tennessee. Villanova number 3 in the country will look to continue to play well on the road, where they are 3-1, to stay hot and maybe contend for that open number 1 spot. Louisville is no push over as they have a 12-4 record and are 10-2 at home. Look for the game in the mid 70's into the low 80's as the Wildcats continue to roll winning 83-78.
JIM FEIST
TORONTO RAPTORS / INDIANA PACERS
TAKE: OVER
Toronto playing some of its best ball of the season he Raptors saw their three game win streak snapped on Sunday by the Celtics, 114-107. The Raptors had won three straight games and eight of the last nine before Sunday's setback. The loss really didn't come as any surprise to the Raptors, who have now lost seven straight to Boston. Still, it was just the club's second loss in their last nine games (both coming at the hands of Boston). Indiana finds itself in last place in the East's Central standings with a 11-25 mark. The Pacers are also just 14-21 ATS on the season. The Pacers defense has been a big part of the bad season, as they are 24th in the league in points allowed (103.92). However, unlike the Raptors who also rank poorly in points allowed, the Pacers also rank 20th in points scored (98) compared to Toronto's 7th ranking (103.24). The Pacers finally got some good news with the return of Danny Granger to the lineup Friday against Minnesota. Granger, who averaged 24 ppg, had been out since Dec 5. The club was just 5-11 without the All-Star. Unfortunately for the Pacers, Granger's return just resulted in a higher scoring loss to the T'Wolves, 116-109, and then another loss on Saturday to the Thunder, 108-102. With Granger's return and two poor defenses, we look for a lot of points here on Monday. Take the OVER and enjoy the offensive show!!
Steve Merril
Hawaii vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State -18
Utah St was the preseason WAC favorite, but after opening their conference schedule with two losses, they’ve got a lot of makeup work to do. The Aggies haven’t played since a 22-point blowout loss at Louisiana Tech last Monday night, and they’ve had six full days to get ready for tonight’s game. “It’s always tough when you come home from a loss and you have to wait four to five days to play again,” Aggie guard/forward Pooh Williams said. “It gives you a lot of time to get better. The coaches have been really on us in practice; everybody has been getting after it. So, I feel we have gotten a lot better this week.” The Aggies play on a strong home court, and being back in their comfort zone should give them a nice boost tonight. “It’s really nice to be home and not have to sleep in four different hotels, be in our own beds, but we don’t have an easy task in Hawaii,” Tai Wesley said. “They’re very capable. We are not overlooking them at all.” There are a few reasons why this selection isn’t rated stronger. Hawaii is somewhat of a bad match-up for Utah St because they are a bigger team that plays a physical style of basketball. “Their size and athletic ability jump out at you,” said USU head coach Stew Morrill when asked what concerns him most about tonight’s opponent. “They are very good on the boards, play very physical. We’ve played Hawaii enough to know they certainly are capable of beating us.” Also is the fact that Hawaii has played in a lot of close games this season. Of their 8 losses, only one has come by more than 18 points which shows that they have ‘hang around’ capability because of their stud guard Roderick Flemings who is usually the best player on the court in the majority of WAC games. And you just don’t know what team will show up tonight. “They are a little like us right now, a little up and down,” Morrill said. “When you face a team like that, you hope to catch them on a down note, rather than an up note.”
LT Profits
Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
The Miami Heat and the Utah Jazz combined for only 150 points in an 80-70 Heat win in Miami in December, but we are looking for this rematch to be played at a totally different pace.
The Jazz play at a much faster pace when they play at home, feeding off of what is usually a frenzied crowd. Utah is averaging a whopping 104.0 points per game at home while shooting a sensational 50.7 percent from the floor. At the same time, because of that frenetic pace, they are also allowing an average of 97.2 points here, and that combined average of 201.7 is nearly 10 points higher than this posted total.
The Utah offense is certainly in good current form, as they are coming off of a 111-93 road upset of the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. The Jazz also put up 114 points the last time they played here at home last Wednesday.
The Heat are also playing relatively high scoring games on the road this season, but it is for the wrong reason, as their defense has been quite generous away from home, surrendering 100.6 points per game. Combine that with the 97.9 points they are averaging offensively away from home, and Miami road games are producing 198.5 points, more than six points higher than this posted total.
So why is this posted total as low as it is? Well, the Heat do have a tendency to have nights where they cannot shoot the ball in the ocean, and one such occasion came yesterday in a 94-84 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. Still, they do usually rebound off of poor shooting games like that, as only twice this season has Miami been held to under 90 points in back-to-back games.
Finally, it appears that playing on consecutive nights usually has an adverse effect on the Heat defense, as they are allowing 102.5 points per game when playing with no rest this season. Thus, we would not be shocked if Utah puts up around 110 tonight, virtually assuring that this game goes Over.
Pick: Heat/Jazz Over 192
EZWINNERS
Golden State Warriors +5.5
The Warriors have played the Cavs very tough at home the last three seasons. Cleveland is 3-0 in those game but only by a combined seven points. The Warriors are playing pretty well now that their big guys are healthy and they have covered seven out of their last eight games. This is the second of back to back games for Cleveland and their third road game in four nights. The tempo that Golden State likes to play at could become a factor for a road weary team. Cleveland is only 5-7 against the spread in the second of back to back games. Take the points.
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta at BOSTON -3'
I improved to 47-19 with FREE selections, including a 24-5 run over the last 29 days, after watching Tennessee win outright as home 'dogs against Kansas on Sunday. Today I have an NBA winner for you as I play the Celtics at home against the Hawks.
Jump on this number early as the line is going up as this game gets closer to tip-off. The Celtics and Hawks meet for the second time in four days but this time it’s in Boston and the Celtics are going to take advantage of a shabby Atlanta road team and win this one easily.
Atlanta beat the Celtics 93-85 on Friday night, covering as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Then the Hawks went to Orlando on Saturday and got drilled 113-81 as a 3 ½-point underdog. In spite of the win over the Celtics, Atlanta has been struggling mightily lately, losing five of their last seven (3-4 ATS).
The Hawks score just 97.9 points a game on the road while scoring 103.4 overall this season. Over their last five games, they are managing just 95.2 points a game. Meanwhile, Boston gives up just 93.4 points a game at home, a far cry from the 103.6 they have been giving up over the last five games.
The home team has won 10 of the previous 13 battles between these two and Boston is 5-2 ATS in the last seven played at BankNorth Garden. Look for the Celtics to get this one by 8 tonight. Play Boston.
4♦ BOSTON
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at PHOENIX -9'
With the Bucks having just been on court last night at the Lakers, look for them to get whipped up on tonight in Phoenix.
The Suns did not suit up yesterday, and they are averaging right around 115 whopping points per game at home where they have covered 11 of their 18 games.
Phoenix did take it on the chin Friday night at home against Miami, so expect them to come out in an ornery mood this Monday night.
The Suns have won 6 in a row, and 9 of the last 10 series meetings against the Bucks, and they have covered in the last 3 series meetings.
The tired Bucks get blasted here.
Lay the wood.
4♦ PHOENIX
JR TIPS
Bucks at Suns
The Phoenix Suns have not been able to protect big leads recently. The Suns jumped out to a 13 point advantage in the first half against the Heat but lost 109-105 on Friday and 2 nights earlier they blew a 16-point lead against Houston before pulling out the victory shooting 43.4 percent which was their second worst shooting percentage at home this season. They also allowed the Kings to tie the game after leading by as many as 20 points last Tuesday but they have had little trouble holding on against the Milwaukee Bucks going for their 22nd straight home win over the Bucks tonight. Phoenix has scored at least 120 points in each of the last four overall meetings against Milwaukee and the Bucks won't stand much of a chance if their play doesn't dramatically improve from last night's butt whipping by the Lakers 95-77. Milwaukee shot 34.1 percent and scored only eight points in the opening quarter while Brandon Jennings scored 10 points, the only starter in double figures. Starting guard Michael Redd left the game with a sore left knee and is scheduled to undergo an MRI today in Phoenix and with Redd out, it increases the pressure on Jennings who is the Bucks' leading scorer at 18.3. Jennings has slumped recently scoring 24 total points in the last three games while shooting 23.5 percent. Stoudemire has dominated averaging 25.0 points and 9.0 rebounds in his last three home games against the Bucks and the Bucks are facing the Suns on a bad night in which they are rested coming off a loss on Friday while the Bucks have to play a back to back . The Suns had a meeting to discuss maintaining their intensity as a team throughout 48 minutes which means another blowout loss for the Bucks' The Suns have scored at least 120 points against the Bucks and the Bucks will be lucky to score 90 against the Suns tonight.
Take Suns -9
Jimmy Moore
Cleveland @ Golden State
Pick: Golden State +6
The Cavs will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights all on the road and coming off of 2 tough venues playing at Denver and Portland. Golden State is a running team that will be very happy to play very up tempo and tire out the Cavs who will not be in full focus for this one.
MATT FARGO
New Mexico State @ Idaho
PICK: New Mexico St +8
New Mexico St. is playing excellent right now yet it is getting dogged in this matchup pretty heavily. The Aggies have won six of their last seven games and are off to a 2-1 start in the WAC thanks to a big road win on Saturday at Boise St. This team is nearly back to full strength as the return of forward Wendell McKines, who was ineligible for the first semester, has been big. He has been back for the last sis games with New Mexico St. going 5-1 in those contests. McKines was the leading rebounder in the conference last season and he is averaging 13.8 ppg and 9.0 rpg. After starting 1-4 on the road, the Aggies have won two straight road games. On the other side, Idaho is getting a lot of respect and what is supposed to be one of the best years in recent memory for the program has not exactly gotten off to a great start. The Vandals have lost two straight games and are 3-5 following a 4-1 start to the season. They are 4-1 at home with the first loss coming on Saturday against Louisiana Tech in a game they were actually getting a point. Now they head into the role of favorites with a swing of nine points and that is simply too big of a shift from one game to the next when the opposition has not changed drastically. One big issue that cannot be ignored to bring up is the Idaho free throw shooting as it is hitting 63.6 percent on the season but that drops to 60.8 percent at home and over the last five games it is a dismal 51.9 percent. That is 22.1 percent less than what the Aggies are hitting over the same stretch. The Aggies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the Vandals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 3* New Mexico St. Aggies
Andrew Bucciarelli
2* Nashville Predators (+156) at Vancouver Canucks (-170)
The Vancouver Canucks have lost their share of first place in the Northwest Division, but they have no reason to believe they're going to fall out of the race any time soon. Vancouver (27-16-2) has two defeats in its last nine games (7-0-2). It hasn't lost in regulation since a 3-1 defeat against St. Louis on Dec. 20. Vancouver left wing Alex Burrows, meanwhile, failed in his attempt to become the first player to score three goals in three straight games, but extended his point streak to five games (seven goals, two assists) with an assist. Take this strong offense of the Canucks. Take VANCOUVER.
1* San Jose Sharks (-130) at Los Angeles Kings (+120)
As they struggle to score goals, the San Jose Sharks badly need better goalkeeping. Still, they may want to consider giving Evgeni Nabokov a break. As they struggle to score goals, the San Jose Sharks badly need better goalkeeping. Still, they may want to consider giving Evgeni Nabokov a break. San Jose lost four of its last five (1-3-1) against Los Angeles, giving up 11 goals in dropping the last two matchups. Take Los Angeles as San Jose is struggling to offense as well as defense. Take LOS ANGELES.
1* Colorado Avalanche (+147) at Calgary Flames (-160)
The Calgary Flames have moved into first place in the Northwest Division, but they have yet to pick up any points against the Colorado Avalanche. The Flames look to avoid a sixth straight loss to the Avalanche when the teams meet at Pengrowth Saddledome on Monday night. Calgary (26-14-5) moved into sole possession of first place in the Northwest following a 3-2 shootout win over Vancouver on Saturday, and improved to 8-5-1 against its own division. Take Calgary on this one guys as they will shine tonight. Take CALGARY.
Tom Freese
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 6-1 their last 7 road games and they are 9-2 their last 11 games overall. The Sharks are 29-11-1 off a home loss by 3 or more goals and they are 15-7 vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 8-20 their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of over 60% and they are 2-6 their last 8 Conference games. The Kings are 7-15 on Monday and they are 5-13 their last 18 games vs. the Sharks. PLAY ON SAN JOSE -