Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Hornets/76ers UNDER 199
The Hornets have been an Unders machine and so has this matchup. The Under is 10-3 in the Hornets' last 13 overall and 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia. With the Hornets having just played yesterday, they shouldn't have the energy to post a big number here. In fact, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Hornets' last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day, and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Under.
DUNKEL INDEX
NBA
Atlanta at Boston
The Celtics look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Boston is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-3 1/2)
Game 701-702: New Orleans at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.704; Philadelphia 119.581
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1 1/2); Over
Game 703-704: Toronto at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 116.587; Indiana 115.612
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 216
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1 1/2); Under
Game 705-706: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.770; Boston 124.028
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-3 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 108.155; Chicago 114.321
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6; 191
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+7); Under
Game 709-710: New York at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.734; Oklahoma City 123.968
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-4 1/2); Over
Game 711-712: Milwaukee at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 110.958; Phoenix 126.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 15 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Under
Game 713-714: Miami at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.906; Utah 120.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 7; 192
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+7); Under
Game 715-716: Minnesota at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 111.914; Denver 121.744
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 10; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 13 1/2; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+10 1/2); Over
Game 717-718: Cleveland at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.964; Golden State 119.424
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+5 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
The Cowboys look to take advantage of an Oklahoma team that this coming off a 91-60 loss to Baylor and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma State is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-1)
Game 719-720: Villanova at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 71.175; Louisville 74.737
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3)
Game 721-722: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 67.487; Oklahoma 64.231
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-1)
Game 723-724: Hawaii at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 52.786; Utah State 68.345
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 18
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+18)
Game 725-726: Louisiana Tech at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 64.778; Boise State 57.670
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 7
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-3 1/2)
Game 727-728: San Jose State at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 51.589; Fresno State 63.384
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 12
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-7)
Game 729-730: New Mexico State at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 51.920; Idaho 59.025
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 7
Vegas Line: Idaho by 8
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+8)
Game 731-732: NC Greensboro at Chattanooga
Dunkel Ratings: NC Greensboro 45.142; Chattanooga 46.633
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 8
Dunkel Pick: NC Greensboro (+8)
Game 733-734: Canisius at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 50.008; Siena 68.269
Dunkel Line: Siena by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-15 1/2)
Game 735-736: Iona at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.465; Loyola-MD 55.580
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2
Vegas Line: Iona by 1
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-1)
Game 737-738: Niagara at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 57.387; St. Peter's 50.606
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 7
Vegas Line: Niagara by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-5 1/2)
Game 739-740: Rider at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 50.328; Marist 44.376
Dunkel Line: Rider by 6
Vegas Line: Rider by 8
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+8)
Game 741-742: Eastern Illinois at Murray State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.601; Murray State 65.096
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 18
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+18)
Game 743-744: Morgan State at Hampton
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 54.024; Hampton 47.197
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 745-746: AR-Pine Bluff at Alabama State
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Pine Bluff 48.072; Alabama State 43.724
Dunkel Line: AR-Pine Bluff by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Nashville at Vancouver
The Predators look to build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 road games. Nashville is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Predators favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+155)
Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 10.857; Minnesota 10.430
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Over
Game 3-4: Colorado at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.235; Calgary 10.862
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+145); Under
Game 5-6: San Jose at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.909; Los Angeles 11.915
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-135); Under
Game 7-8: Nashville at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.402; Vancouver 12.259
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+155); Under
Stephen Nover
Toronto at INDIANA -1'
Indiana's offense should pick up again now that Danny Granger and Troy Murphy, its two best players, are healthy.
This will be Granger's third game back from a heel injury. The rust should just about be off. He scored 25 points in his last game. Murphy registered 15 points and 15 rebounds in his last game on Saturday after missing four games because of a sprained left ankle.
The Raptors' defense has improved lately, which means it has gone from absolutely terrible to merely very bad. Toronto is 37-18-1 (67 percent) to the over in its last 56 road games.
Indiana, of course, doesn't play any defense. If you discount holding Orlando to 90 points, the Pacers have given up an average of 114.5 points in their last eight games. The Pacers have yielded at least 108 points in all but two of their last nine games.
Toronto has the offense to take advantage with Chris Bosh playing his best ball and Jose Calderon back from injury to shore up the point guard spot.
2♦ TORONTO RAPTORS
Brett Atkins
Two straight college hoops freebies have rolled in after getting another winner on Sunday as Tennessee pulled off the outright upset at home of top-ranked Kansas. Today I'm loving Villanova getting points at Louisville in Big East action.
I’m grabbing the points but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Villanova win this one outright at Freedom Hall in Louisville.
Villanova has won five straight and their only loss this season came at Temple in mid-December, a tough chore for any team in the country. The Wildcats beat Marquette on Saturday, 78-76, but came up short as a nine-point home favorite.
Villanova scores almost 90 points a game and they shoot 53 percent from the floor. They’ve got a great leader in Scottie Reynolds and some talent up-and-down the roster. They come in on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 8-3 after a straight-up winner.
Louisville have opened Big East play with a 3-0 mark, but this team just can’t score enough points to beat the Wildcats. They’ve averaged just 76.2 points per game in the last five games and they beat St. John’s on Saturday, 75-68, but didn’t cover the 13-point spread.
The Cardinals have won and covered three straight matchups with Villanova and cashed in five straight dating back to 2006. Louisville has failed to cover in five of seven after a victory. I like the Wildcats to go in there and play the Cardinals tough. Grab the points and play Villanova.
4♦ VILLANOVA
Jay McNeil
I picked up yet another win Sunday with my free play, taking the Clippers to beat up on Miami. That gave me a 13-6 record over the past 19 days, and I'm not about to slow down now!
I've got another NBA winner for you today, taking the red-hot Hornets as an underdog at Philadelphia. I'm not really sure why the 76ers are favored here. New Orleans has won six straight games, going 5-1 ATS, and Philly is just 4-12 at home this season.
David West is averaging 20.3 ppg during the winning streak for the Hornets, who are 3-0 on the road in 2010.
New Orleans is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games against the Sixers, who are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS
Charley Sutton
Bad call yesterday as the Ravens and Patriots go Over the Total, unlike I what I said would go down.
That’s fine because I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Golden State Warriors at home against the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers.
Coming into this game, even though the Warriors are just 11-24 SU this season, the team has been a money maker, going 19-15-1 ATS this season.
At home, the Warriors are 9-5 ATS and have covered in 3 straight in Oakland. In fact, Golden State rides into tonight’s game red-hot as a money maker, having covered in 7 of its last 8 games, including three straight covers overall.
Now the Warriors battle a Cavaliers team that’s covered in just 2 of its last 6 games and is just 1-2 ATS its last 3 road games.
Keep in mind, also, over the last few seasons the Warriors have gone 3-1 ATS their last 4 games against the Cavs, including a cover when these two met in Cleveland on Nov. 17.
The Warriors will cash in again tonight against the struggling Cavaliers.
3 ♦ WARRIORS
Joel Tyson
NBA free play for Monday, as I am looking for the back-to-back days on the court to hurt the visiting Raptors.
Toronto comes to Indiana with an 8-12 spread mark on the road this year, and while the Pacers have been struggling of late, this series has been dominated by the host, and I expect the trend to continue on Monday.
The home team has won and covered the last 5 series meetings, and 7 of the last 10 both straight up, and against the spread.
Toronto still too inconsistent on the road to be trusted.
Take Indiana.
1♦ INDIANA
Chuck O'Brien
Scored a nice 5♦ free winner with the Cardinals in NFL playoff action on Sunday. Now let’s take Oklahoma State in a virtual pick-em situation at Oklahoma in Monday’s college hoops action.
These rivalry games can be tough to handicap at times, but this line seems way out of whack to me even though the Cowboys are the road team. Oklahoma State is off to a 13-2 start to this season and likely will crack the Top 25 today, and it tipped off the Big 12 season with an 81-52 annihilation of Texas Tech as a seven-point favorite on Saturday. On the other hand, the Sooners are just 9-6 SU and 4-8 ATS on the year and have dropped three of their last four. That includes Saturday’s disastrous performance at Baylor in which Oklahoma lost 91-60 as a seven-point road underdog.
Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but the two best wins came against opponents (Arizona and Arkansas) that are way down this year. The Sooners have suffered four double-digit losses this season (three in the last four games, broken up only by a home win over Maryland-Eastern Shore). And while the Sooners have been a pointspread nightmare lately (four straight non-covers overall; four straight non-covers in Big 12 play), Oklahoma State is on an incredible 17-3-1 ATS tear, including cashing in 10 of its last 11 conference games. The Cowboys also played the Sooners (a Top 5 team) tough last year, losing by four in Norman as a nine-point underdog then pulling an upset as a five-point pup in the Big 12 tournament.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
John Ryan
Eastern Illinois at Murray St.
Prediction: Eastern Illinois
3* graded play on Eastern Illinois and as they face Murray State set to start at 8:00 EST . Our handicapping model shows that this is just too many points for Murray State to cover. Murray State is the clear favorite to win the OVC. They are coming off a solid win defeating Austin Peay 69-53 and were installed as 4 point favorites. EL has won 3 straight and 6 of the past 7. In their last game they destroyed SE Missouri State 88-68 as 10 point favorites. Murray State has used solid defense to generate offensive opportunities. We think that EI has the personnel to match up well against Murray State. Further, we have seen teams that have had 4 consecutive games playing strong defense keeping opponents to under 40% shooting fall flat in the next game. Murray State falls into this assessment noting that they are just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus excellent teams shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997. EI is on a solid winning streak and has a lot going for it entering this game and the following system under scores this fact. This system has posted a 29-7 80.6% winning record since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Take Eastern Illinois.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -7
Tough spot for a Miami club that just played last night as it faces a Jazz team that is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Plus, Utah should be especially motivated in this spot against a team that has had its number of late. The Jazz fell 70-80 in Miami last month, and I fully expect them to pay the Heat back here. Revenge has been a strong motivating factor for the Jazz as they are 15-5 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.6 to 96.7. Lay the points.
Spartan
Villanova +3 vs Louisville
I'll gladly support a play here on the Wildcats getting points, even at Louisville. Villanova at 14-1 is shaping up to be a serious contender come march for a deep run. Sure, they got into a scrap with Marquette this weekend and narrowly escaped with a 78-76 victory but the point is they prevailed and held off a good Marquette team giving the Wildcats their best shot. Nova has been cashing tickets for it's backer at an impressive 10-4 clip against the number. Rick Pitino's Cardinals have been a losing proposition for bettors thus far and I am predicting that trend will stay in play at the conclusion of tonight. Free release for Monday on the Villanova Wildcats getting the 3 points guys!
Larry Ness
Oklahoma +1 vs Oklahoma St.
The Sooners knew life was going to be tough without Blake Griffin (22.7-8.1), who left early and was the No. 1 pick in the NBA last April. Also gone from LY's 30-win, Elite 8 team were Griffin's brother Taylor (9.6-5.8) and PG Johnson (8.6-3.9 APG). However, Warren (17.8-3.3-4.4) and Crocker (13.6-7.1) were expected to lead the way with three talented freshman coming in. "Tiny" Gallon (11.9-8.6) is part of the starting lineup with guards Mason-Griffin (10.1-4.9 APG) and Pledger (7.7) often coming off the bench. Junior Cade Davis (8.1) is in the starting lineup these days but the Sooners are just 9-6 heading into this game with in-state rival Oklahoma St. The Sooners were embarrassed in their conference opener on Saturday, losing at Baylor. Oklahoma had won 30 in a row vs Baylor before falling in Waco for the first time since 1954. The Cowboys opened their Big 12 schedule in convincing fashion on Saturday, as they trounced nationally-ranked Texas Tech 81-52. The Cowboys improved to 13-2 overall and are led by big guards Anderson (21.9-5.9) and Muonelo (12.0-5.3). The 6-7 Moses (10.5-9.5) came into his own last year when the 6-11 Thomas left school after seven games and this year is getting some help inside from the 6-8 Pilgrim (7.6-6.4), who came from Kentucky by way of Hampton University. Page (10.3) and freshman guard Penn (8.1-2.8 APG) are trying to replace graduated PG Eaton (14.3-5.7 APG) plus the Cowboys miss Harris' 13.9 PPG and 4.8 RPG he gave them LY as another big 6-5 guard. All in all, Travis Ford's team has been fairly impressive. Oklahoma won both regular season meetings LY but the Cowboys knocked off the Sooners in the Big 12 tourney. This is the first meeting this year and with the Sooners coming off that embarrassing game in Waco, I expect an excellent effort from Oklahoma. Let's also note that OSU could be flying a little too high off its win over Texas Tech. Note that the Sooners are 7-0 at home this year, winning on average by 81.0-to-62.3 PPG. Take the home team.
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the number in Boston. The oddsmakers are just begging us to take Boston... and why not? They just lost in Atlanta a few nights ago but were competitive for three-and-a-half quarters. You'd be thinking Boston at home on a revenge game might be listed around 6 or so... but that's not the case... and I'm not falling for the trap. Boston could easily cover this number if they came to play, but I just don't think they matchup that well without Kevin Garnett on the floor and I doubt he'll be back for this game. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are absolutely going to light up the Boston night tonight and I'll be surprised if they don't score105 or more points tonight. Atlanta is younger and appears to be more athletic right now, and without their emotional leader to give them a boost tonight, Atlanta should be able to take full advantage. I like how Atlanta hit free throws in their last game and they're starting to rebound the ball too. I'm siding with the road team to get the outright sweep in these first two games. Take Atlanta.
2♦ ATLANTA
Rocketman
Toronto @ Indiana
Play: Toronto +2.5
Toronto is 19-18 overall this year while Indiana is 11-25 on the season. Toronto is 7-1 SU and ATS against Central Division opponents this year. Indiana is 2-9 ATS this year when the total is 210 or higher. Toronto is 8-2 SU their last 10 games overall. Indiana is 2-11 SU their last 13 games overall. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central. Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Pacers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Pacers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU loss. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
Hollywood Sports
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
Coach Doc Rivers has his team primed to take it to Atlanta on Monday. After the Celtics 93-85 loss to the Hawks on Friday (their second loss to Atlanta this season), Rivers had this to say about how his team compares to Atlanta: "I thought the Hawks were more physical than us, and they really attacked us, especially in the second half ... I thought we played well early, but then they took over the game from there. Right now you have to give it to them. They are the better team." The Celtics bounced back on Sunday to defeat the Raptors by a 114-107 score. While the Celtics will likely still be without Kevin Garnett with his hyperextended knee, Rasheed Wallace filled in nicely at power forward against Toronto by scoring 29 points. Now the Celtics wait for Atlanta at home where they enjoy an 11-4 record with a +9.3 net point differential with a 49.6% shooting percentage and a 44.4% defensive field goal mark. While the Hawks are 9-9 on the road, they do have a -0.2 net point differential away from home. Atlanta has failed to cover in their last seven road games as an underdog of under five points. The Celtics have covered their last six games as a favorite of under five points. Atlanta was destroyed by the Magic on Saturday by a whopping 32 points. That game may have done enough to rattle Atlanta's confidence as they now face a Celtics' teams that has been called out by their coach to take care of business in this game. Lay the points with the Celtics.