TEDDY COVERS
New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: New Orleans Hornets +2
I don’t make many bets based solely on trends and angles. That being said, when the Philadelphia 76ers are playing at the Wachovia Center, there’s only one bet to make – supporting their opponent. The numbers don’t lie. Philadelphia is 4-12 SU, 2-14 ATS at home this year, and one of those two ATS covers came back on opening night. When a team goes 1-14 ATS at home over a ten week span, it’s no accident – there is a legitimate home court disadvantage for this team, playing in front of lackluster, lethargic crowds on a floor where opponent after opponent is convinced that this is the spot to pick up a coveted road victory.
While Philadelphia is a pointspread disaster area at home, the New Orleans Hornets are headed in the other direction. The Hornets started the season by going 2-13 SU in their first 15 road games, a prevailing trend similar to Philly’s, making them virtually unbackable on the highway. But in the last two weeks, New Orleans has won six straight, including all three previous tries as a road underdog at Utah, Oklahoma City and Washington. The Hornets have swept this season series in each of the last two years, facing better 76ers teams than this one…. 2* Take the Hornets.
ALEX SMART
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Under190
If the Hawks could just figure out a way to stay out of Florida, they'd be in a lot better shape. Their L/2 ATS defeats came in Orlando and in Miami, and they only scored a total of 156 points in those two games. That's incredibly uncharacteristic for a squad that is putting up the sixth most points per game in the NBA this year (103.4). Rebounding is starting to become an issue for this slightly undersized squad. After F Al Horford (9.8 rebounds per game) and F Josh Smith (8.1 rebounds per game), no one is bringing down more than five boards a night.
Injuries continue to be the theme of the Celtics, but G Rajon Rondo and F Paul Pierce now look to be at 100% and ready to keep Boston on track towards another Atlantic Division title. The question marks left on this team are F Kevin Garnett and G Tony Allen, both of which could be back in the lineup playing regular minutes any day now. HC Doc Rivers' squad is all about the defense, as it ranks in the Top-10 in every major defensive category.
Atlanta has had its way with Boston this season. The Hawks won 93-85 at home against the Celtics just three days ago, and posted an impressive 97-86 victory in their first visit to the Garden this year back in November. With Boston looking to finally get one against these guys, we’re gonna stay away from the side and play into the ‘total’ instead. The under has cashed 12 of the L/16 times Atlanta’s been installed an underdog, and its cashed 19 of the L/28 times Boston’s played on no rest. These teams have already played to the under twice this season, and its cashed 10 of the L/14 times these teams have met in Boston. Look for a defensive minded slugfest tonight as well!
SPORTS WAGERS
GOLDEN STATE +6 over Cleveland
The Warriors won’t play many big games this season but they get tremendous fan support and one has to figure the place to be rocking tonight, as King James and the Cav’s make a rare appearance. It’s been about a year since the Cav’s were last here and prior to that it was about three years, thus, Cleveland has played in Golden State just twice over the past four years. This is definitely one of the games that the players, fans and city will be juiced up for and it comes in a perfect spot for the host. Cleveland played last night in Portland, they played Friday in Denver and this will be its third game in four nights after a win last night. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been off since Friday. They’re well rested for sure, they’ve gone 7-1 ATS over its last eight games and they’re talented enough that if they catch the Cav’s a bit flat they can pull the upset. You always pay a premium to wager on Cleveland vs an average team and this line is low enough to entice quite a bit of action on the better team. However, in this case we’re going to side with the “house”, as most folks will be laying the lumber. Play: Golden State +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
San Jose St +8 over FRESNO ST.
Unlike the pros, W/L records in college sports is very misleading indeed. The Fresno St Bulldogs are a prime example of that. They’ve won three in a row but they beat Colorado St, Boise St by just three and Hawaii. Colorado St is 12-5, but they, too, have played a whole bunch of nobodies. The Bulldogs are just 9-7 overall and its scheduled games thus far have been brutal. Not only have they lost to teams like Seattle, Santa Clara and Pacific to name a few but a bunch of their wins have been by the slimmest of margins. This is a team that has no bench and nothing to offer as a 8-point favorite. The Spartans record is virtually the same at 8-6 and they, too, have some disturbing losses. However, they’ve won five of its last seven and they have two very good losses on its résumé this year. San Jose St. hung tough with #10 Washington, losing by just 10 and two weeks after that they lost to a very strong St. Mary’s squad by just seven. Player for player, the Spartans are the better team here, they’ve played the tougher schedule and they’re getting way too many points in this one. Upset possibility. Play: San Jose St. +8 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
CALGARY -½ +1.00 over Colorado
The Flames are not the best team to lay a half puck with because of its lack of offense but one has to figure they want this one badly. You see, these two have played three times this season and the Avalanche have won them all and that can’t be sitting well with anyone. Calgary is coming off one of its best performances of the year on Saturday when they went into Vancouver and beat the Canuck 3-2 while outshooting them 40-21. That’s two games in a row they've held the opposition to a very low shot total and that’s a very good sign indeed. The Av’s are coming off a nice 4-3 win over the Sabres but they only have one regulation win over its last five games. That includes losses to the Islanders and Canes and we’re starting to see this team slowly playing at the level they should be. Colorado will also be playing its sixth road game in its last seven outings, its seventh game in 12 nights and they’ll be playing it without a couple of key defenseman, as both Foote and Clark are out. Craig Anderson has stolen enough games this season but under these conditions against what should be a motivated Flames team it’s unlikely he does it again. Play: Calgary -½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Tony Weston
Just a horrible call yesterday as the Packers and Cardinals put up plenty of points in a shootout that goes well Over the Total.
I’m not making a mistake tonight as I’m delivering with Villanova on the road at Louisville.
The Wildcats come into this game 14-1 SU this season and having covered in 10 of 14 lined games this season and now get to battle a Louisville team that’s covered in just 5 of 11 lined games this year.
Consider that Villanova has won 5 consecutive games SU and has gone 4-1 ATS in that stretch. On the road this year the Wildcats have gone 5-3 ATS and have covered in each of their last 2 games away from home.
Louisville, on the other hand, has covered in just 10 of its last 38 home games against teams with a winning road record and is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games coming off a SU win.
The Cardinals have covered in just 3 of their last 9 lined games and will drop another one tonight. Take Villanova on the road in this one.
3♦ VILLANOVA
Drew Gordon
New Orleans at PHILADELPHIA -1'
34-23-3 roll L60 Free Plays, incl. the Cardinals Sunday & Cowboys Saturday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Hornets/76ers match up.
You guys really think betting the NBA is that easy? Yes, the surging Hornets are a "seemingly" attractive play as road underdogs at Philly tonight, but that hardly means they're an automatic buy! They've won 6 straight and average bettors everywhere are lining up to take them at this price tonight... As usual, its too little, too late for the average guys, as this streak ends tonight and here's why:
First of all this Hornets team may have won 6 straight (5-1 ATS), but have you acutally watched those games? Guys, we're talking about a team that barely beat New Jersey at home, and played a close game at Washington in their L2 games! Now they're in a situational bind, playing in the tail-end of a back-to-back, against a rested Philly team desperate for a home win.
That brings me to my next point, the 76ers have lost 4 straight in front of the home fans, and are highly-motivated after a confidence-building win at Detroit. They played one of their better games this season Saturday, and I expect that will carryover tonight.
Finally, although I know there's a lot of trends pointing the other way, one trend that really stands out to me is the Hornets 2-9 record ATS in their L11 games vs a team with a losing record! In other words, New Orleans tends to play down to the level of their competition, and I expect that'll happen once again tonight. In the end, the public gets massacred in this spot, but my clients know better, as the 76ers circle the wagons at home Monday night!
Take Philadelphia over New Orleans in this NBA match up.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Dominic Fazzini
Miami +7' at UTAH
Give credit to Bruce Pearl and his Tennessee basketball team for stepping up though short-handed Sunday and taking down top-ranked Kansas. I didn't see that coming and got stuck with a loss with my complimentary selection in the process. I'm still on a 55-36-1 run, including 38-23-1 over the past 62 days, however.
I've got an NBA winner for you today, backing the underdog Heat at Utah. Miami has struggled a bit lately, losing five of its last seven games, but it loves playing against the Jazz.
The Heat has won 11 of their last 12 games against Utah, including four straight in Salt Lake City, and also has gone 11-1 ATS during that time.
Miami held the Jazz to 70 points on Dec. 23 in the teams' last meeting, a 10-point home win by the Heat.
Miami star Dwyane Wade has thrived in his last five games in Salt Lake, averaging 27 points and 7.4 assists, shooting 50 percent in the process.
The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Utah, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the teams' last seven meetings. Take Miami to cover the points as a 'dog tonight.
3♦ MIAMI
Jack Jones
Raptors/Pacers OVER 216.5
The last four times these two teams have met at least one of them has reached 110 points. On November 24th the Raptors won 123-112, then last April it was Indiana wnning 130-101. The last two games the Pacers have played have seen scores of 109-116 against Minnesota and 102-108 against Oklahoma City, and those aren't even two fast-paced teams. The Pacers are 15-5 OVER at home after two straight games going over 100 points the past two seasons.
Toronto has scored at least 107 points in three straight games and they have given up more than 100 in each of those as well. Thi sis a team that is allowing 109 ppg on the road this year on 49% shooting, while scoring 103.3 ppg themselves. Indiana has allowed 104 ppg this year, and with the defense these two teams have been playing, this game has a great chance of going over the total.