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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

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DUNKEL INDEX

LA Clippers at Memphis
The Grizzlies look to take advantage of a Clippers team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games against teams with a home winning percentage above .600. Memphis is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2 1/2)

Game 701-702: Orlando at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 114.999; Washington 115.981
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+2 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Charlotte at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 110.798; Boston 124.503
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 13 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 11; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-11); Under

Game 705-706: Atlanta at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.815; Chicago 117.723
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Under

Game 707-708: LA Clippers at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.094; Memphis 127.147
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 709-710: Minnesota at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.743; Dallas 118.877
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 197
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+7); Over

Game 711-712: Miami at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 119.649; Utah 116.866
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Oklahoma City at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.390; Phoenix 117.384
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 200
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5); Over

Game 715-716: Cleveland at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 110.186; Sacramento 122.277
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 12; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 5 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-5 1/2); Under

NCAAB

Norfolk State at Howard
The Spartans look to take advantage of a Howard team that is coming off a 51-49 loss to Hampton and is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU defeat. Norfolk State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (-2 1/2)

Game 717-718: Louisville at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 78.541; Connecticut 67.593
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 11; 137
Vegas Line: Louisville by 7; 133
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-7); Over

Game 719-720: Baylor at Kansas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 66.959; Kansas 81.979
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 15; 138
Vegas Line: Kansas by 10 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-10 1/2); Under

Game 721-722: Elon at Western Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 50.812; Western Carolina 53.590
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 3
Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (-1 1/2)

Game 723-724: Wofford at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 53.545; Furman 46.117
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Wofford by 7
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (-7)

Game 725-726: NC-Greensboro at Appalachian State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 44.132; Appalachian State 46.417
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+4 1/2)

Game 727-728: Davidson at Georgia Southern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 60.453; Georgia Southern 51.014
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Davidson by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+12 1/2)

Game 729-730: College of Charleston at The Citadel (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 52.904; The Citadel 37.459
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 14
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (-14)

Game 731-732: Weber State at Idaho State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 59.791; Idaho State 45.131
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-12 1/2)

Game 741-742: Norfolk State at Howard (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 47.992; Howard 41.543
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 6 1/2; 115
Vegas Line: Norfolk State by 2 1/2; 120
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 743-744: Jackson State at Prairie View (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jackson State 38.061; Prairie View 42.792
Dunkel Line: Prairie View by 4 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Prairie View by 6; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jackson State (+6); Over

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:20 am
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Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. SacramentoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SacramentoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Facing quality opposition, the Kings have struggled of late. Most recently, they were blown out by Miami on Saturday. Stepping down in class and with the schedule in their favor, this game provides an opportunity to get back on track.
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Now 37-17 my last 54 NBA selections, I successfully played against the Cavaliers last night. As I had hoped, they got blown out by a desperate Laker team.

Kyrie Irving commented ...
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"...they did a great job of containing me and everybody on the team. We just got punched in the mouth in the first quarter. We just didn't have that fight in the first quarter, and it kind of killed us the rest of the game.''

Note that the Cavs have only one win in 11 tries this season, when playing the second of back-to-back games. Six of those 10 losses came by a minimum of seven points.
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While its true that the starters didn't see extremely heavy minutes last night, (Irving was the only to play more than 30 mins) I still see this being a fairly difficult scheduling spot.

The Cavs will be playing their third game in four days and their seventh game since 1/4. That's quite a busy stretch of games for a young struggling team which is thousands of miles away from home. I won't be surprised if it catches up with them a bit here.
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Irving, who has been "under the weather" recently, is a talented and exciting player. However, Cleveland clearly misses Varejao.

The Kings recently won (97-94 on 1/2) at Cleveland and they're now 8-2 ATS the last 10 in the series.
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While the Cavs are now 5-18 on the road, the Kings can climb back above the .500 mark at home with a win. Knowing they've got Washington on deck after this, the Kings are aware that this this is their chance to build some momentum. I expect their best effort. Consider laying the points.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:33 am
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Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami vs. UtahFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UtahFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LBJ finally “got his ring” last year and it seems as if this year’s Miami team is waiting for the playoffs to turn up the ‘heat!’ The Heat do own the East’s best record at 24-11 but they are a very mediocre 8-8 on the road (6-10 ATS). Miami enters tonight’s game in Utah having gone 4-5 SU its last nine games, posting a woeful 2-7 ATS mark. Miami’s “Big 3” leads the way again, with LBJ averaging 25.8-8.3-6.9, Wade 20.4-4.5-4.3 and Bosh 18.0 & 7.4. Chalmers (7.7-3.4 APG) is not having a good season at PG and Haslem (3.6-5.2) has been nothing special as the team’s fifth starter. Allen’s (11.3) been an excellent addition (real value should show in the postseason) with Battier (6.1), Cole (4.6) and Miller (4.2) being the main contributors on a regular basis off the bench.
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I really liked Utah’s off-season additions, Mo Williams and Randy Foye from the Clippers and Marvin Williams from the Hawks. Mo Williams (12.9-6.7 APG) has been excellent but he’s missed the last 11 games with thumb surgery and won’t be back soon. Marvin Williams (8.9-3.5) has been reasonably healthy but has missed the last three games with knee issues and is no better than questionable for tonight’s tilt. Foye (11.1) has been the only one of Utah’s trio to be a constant. The Jazz’s key performers are the team’s inside duo of Jefferson (17.2-9.8) and Millsap (14.9-7.7). Hayward (12.9) has been very good at SG or SF plus Favors (8.8-6.3) is finding Salt Lake city to his liking. Kanter (6.3-4.2) and Carroll (5.3-3.4) are two more solid big men plus veteran PG Tinsley has stepped in during Mo Williams’ absence and played OK. He had averaged 5.9 PPG and 6.0 APG in 10 straight games before playing just six minutes in Saturday’s comeback win at Detroit due to an illness (listed as probable in this one).
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Utah is 11-4 SU (10-5 ATS) at home this season, including a PERFECT 3-0 mark as a home dog. The Jazz have taken six straight home matchups against Eastern Conference foes dating to last season and are 39-7 in such games since February 2009. I realize Miami is not just a typical Eastern Conference team but I’m taking the home dog.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:34 am
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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. SacramentoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SacramentoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento is not a good team by any means. But Monday night sees them drawing a favorable matchup against an even worse team, Cleveland, who I played against in this space last night as they failed to cover against the Lakers. The Kings recently beat the Cavaliers, in Cleveland 97-94 and pretty much led most of the way. The setup here is advantageous to the home team.
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Sacramento was also blown out in its most recent game, but that was against the Heat. There probably won't be a more severe drop in class for the Kings from game to game then there is here as they now host a Cleveland team that doesn't win too often. The Kings are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four games. But this is a respectable team at home, where they are 10-10 straight up this season. This is the most points Sacramento has been favored by in a game this season. They are 6-1 ATS off three consecutive home losses the last three seasons.
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Cleveland is without rest, which is key. The Cavs' defense is poor, allowing 112 or more points in three of the past five contests. Last time playing without rest, the team lost by eight to Houston. This will also be their third game in four nights. Playing on back to back days this year, the Cavs are 5-7 ATS. This is a rare instance of being able to lay a short number against a bad team.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:35 am
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David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte vs. BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte is 9-27 SU and 14-22 ATS; it's coming off three straight losses, including a 96-88 setback at Indiana as an 11.5 point underdog on the 12th. Shoddy defensive play has been to blame for the Bobcats run of futility as they've allowed their last three opponents to make at least 10 3-pointers while allowing them to hit almost 43% from behind the arc.
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Ben Gordon has been a lone bright spot, averaging 19.6 points off 52.6% shooting over the last month.

But Charlotte has averaged just 83 points on 41.8% shooting over its last two contests.
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And note that Charlotte is just 7-10 ATS on the road this year.

Boston is 19-17 SU and 14-20-1 ATS; it's coming off five straight victories, including a 103-91 win over Houston as a 3 point favorite on the 11th.
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The C's have found their swagger, and have won by an average of 10.6 points during their streak.

Paul Pierce had 23 points vs. Houston:
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"I feel good. I feel like we are building,'' said Pierce after. "We're getting better and better.''

You'll want to keep your eyes on Brandon Bass who has averaged 17 points in his last four vs Charlotte.
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Note that Boston's bench has outscored its counterparts 67-41 over the last two games.

And note that Boston is 4-2 ATS in the New Year.
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I believe the surging home side comes in focused, and dominates from the opening tip until the final horn; consider a second look at the C's in this one!

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:36 am
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Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. DallasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What to expect: A sharper offensive effort from the T'Wolves after shooting a miserable 37% in a 106-88 loss to the Spurs last night. Alexey Shved and Ricky Rubio combined to go 0-for-13 from the field in the loss. Shved averages double-figures in scoring on the season, while it's only a matter of time before Rubio has a breakout game. This looks like an ideal spot against a Mavs team that's 'fat and happy' off...back-to-back wins, and holding the Grizzlies to 83 points on Saturday. Keep in mind, Memphis was in a letdown spot of its own on that night, fresh off an overtime win over the Spurs on Friday. Dallas is by no means a strong defensive team, having allowed nearly 103 points per game on the season. The Mavs are an improving bunch offensively, however. Dirk Nowitzki is quietly rounding back into form, and they'll shoot for their third straight 100+ point performance on Monday night. I'm confident they'll get it against a T'Wolves team that isn't stopping anyone. Minnesota has allowed at least 102 points in five consecutive games. The most recent meeting in this series produced 220 points by way of overtime, but still reached 204 points in regulation time. The 'over' is 3-1 in the last four meetings, and that trend will continue tonight.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:37 am
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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. Chicago
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The Bulls will host the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, and Atlanta is coming off a loss on the road to the NBA's worst team. The Hawks fell to the Wizards in Washington by a score of 93-83 on Saturday, and they are in Chicago tonight to play their third game in four nights.
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The Bulls will also be playing their third in four nights, and they are also coming off a loss on the road to an inferior opponent. Chicago lost 97-81 to the Suns in Phoenix on Saturday.
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Atlanta has lost five of it's last six, and the Hawks have struggled offensively in the month of January. Atlanta had averaged 98 points per game during the first two months of the season, but that average is down to just 90 points per game in January. If the Hawks hope to break out of their scoring slump tonight, they will have to do it against the league's 3rd best defense, Chicago is allowing an average of just 92.3 points per game.
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Atlanta is 0-4 in Chicago since 2011, and they were 1-3 ATS in those four losses. The one occasion that Atlanta did cover the points, it was as a 9.5 point underdog, more than double the spread in tonight's game.
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The Hawks have failed to cover the points in five of their last six games overall, and it doesn't seem likely that is a streak that will end tonight. While Chicago is just .500 at home so far this year, with a better record on the road, it would be logical to assume that these numbers will correct themselves by season's end.
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Take the Bulls to win and cover.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:38 am
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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis Grizzlies -2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Grizzlies are coming off a tough loss in Dallas where the Mavs put a 21 point beating down on them. However, good teams normally bounce back from games like that. In fact, if a team is outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg on the year after a blowout loss by 15 loins or more they are 113-67 ATS over the last five years in the next game. Memphis is 13-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and a perfect 7-0 ATS against teams that have won 70% of their games.
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The Clippers have been solid all year long, but are coming off a pair of non-covers, including an outright loss to Orlando on Saturday as a 13.5 point favorite. I think Memphis will be out for revenge since LA won by nine in the first matchup back in late October so I'm laying the small number here with the Grizzlies.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:39 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Weber St -12½

Weber St is on top of the Big Sky conference and should have their way here tonight against a Mediocre Idaho St team that is 0-10 straight up and to the spread vs good defensive team that allow 65 or less. Weber St is exceptional Defensively and have held all of their last 4 opponents to less than 38% shooting from the field. This will spell trouble for an Idaho St team that has lost and failed to cover all 3 times vs winning teams this season. Weber St comes in off 6 straight wins and will no doubt shoot much better than they did in their last game managing just 39%. This spells a long night for Idaho St. Lay the points with Weber Tonight.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:40 am
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Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Atlanta HawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last night in Vegas the line opened at -3 1/2, but was quickly taken up to -4 Atlanta. And, rightly so as in their initial meeting in December the Hawks (21-15) smashed the Bulls 92-75. In that encounter the Hawks out rebounded the Bulls (20-15) 45-31 controlling the tempo. On Monday, Chicago enters this battle 10-10 SU at home, Atlanta 9-9 SU on the road. The Bulls will be without Derrick Rose again (ACL), so an improved effort from Luol Deng is imperative after the talented star looked horrible against the Suns last time out. That’s a Phoenix defense that gives up almost 100 points per game. In their last 6 games the Hawks are 1-5 SU & ATS, 0-4 SU on the road. The chalk in the series has taken 5 of 7 ATS..In what should a very close game, Chicago 99 Atlanta 98.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:41 am
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Alex Smart

Louisville vs. UConn
Play: UConn

UConn (9-0) at home are built to handle pressure defenses like the Louisville Cardinal implement to make life miserable for their opponents. UConn comes off an impressive upset of Notre Dame, and instead of being in a letdown situation, will instead feed on the positive momentum garned from the above mentioned tilt, and possibly pull off another upset. It must be noted that UConn also has revenge in tap here tonight, as they look to get even for a 80-59 loss in last season’s lone meeting. Key Trend: Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:41 am
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Ray Monohan

Baylor +11

Over the last few years I have been high on Baylor and they have often disappointed. Still it is hard not to like this team with a veteran backcourt and enough size and skill up front to bother Kansas center Jeff Withey. Their backcourt is little slight compared to KU which will present matchup problems on both sides of the floor for both teams. The Bears won at Kentucky and played Gonzaga tough on the road, neither of those are friendly environments so they shouldn’t be intimidated. They just need a solid start to put the pressure on. The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 at Kansas. Road teams are 13-1 ATS in the series.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:42 am
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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Hawks +4½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Key: The Bulls continue to be overvalued at home by oddsmakers. They are just 4-16 ATS this season at home where they are winning by only 0.8 points on average. Chicago is also on a 2-11 ATS slide as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Atlanta has lost 5 of 6 SU and ATS but is 25-7 ATS after failing to cover the number in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks have won by an average score of 97.6 to 91.3 in this situation. Take the points.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:42 am
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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas Mavericks -6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have backed the Dallas Mavericks with success in each of their past two games. They went on the road and topped Sacramento 117-112 in overtime before coming back home and knocking off the Memphis Grizzlies 104-83 on Saturday.
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My biggest reason for hopping on board the Mavericks right now is the fact that they are finally getting healthy with Dirk Nowitzki back at full strength. This is going to be a dangerous team the rest of the way as they try and dig themselves out of a hole to make the playoffs in the West.
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Minnesota is in a world of hurt right now health-wise. It is without its best player in Kevin Love (hand), and it is struggling as a result. The Timberwolves have lost three straight in blowout fashion to the Thunder (84-106), Hornets (92-104) and Spurs (88-106). This is also a tired team as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.
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Dallas is 13-3 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 24-8 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference. Bet the Mavericks Monday.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:50 am
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Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Magic/Wizards Under 192FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Playing the Under on home teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that check in off a win of 10 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that has scored 100 points or more 3 straight games has produced a 93-50 (65%) result since 1996. This system is 22-7 UNDER the last 3 seasons and 4-1 UNDER this season.

 
Posted : January 14, 2013 11:51 am
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