Jim Feist
Bobcats at Celtics
Pick: Over
Not much you can really say about this Charlotte club other than they aren't the worst team in the southeast division, Washington still holds that distinction. However, after winning a rare two out of three games, the Bobcats have lost three straight again. Biggest problem with this club is defense, as they rank 30th in the NBA in points allowed (103.6 ppg). This is good news for the Boston Celtics who average just 95.4 ppgs (21st in the NBA). Though the Celtics have scored over 100 points in two of their last three games. I'm going with the over here tonight and if we can get Charlotte to 89 or 90 points, then this one should get over quite easy. Take the OVER
Dave Cokin
Louisville at Connecticut
Pick: Louisville
UConn returns home off an impressive win at Notre Dame and the Huskies will be very fired up tonight as they host Louisville. I can certainly see where a good case can be made for the home dog. The two teams match up almost dead even in most categories. But there's one big strength on the Louisville side that is also the weak point for UConn. The Cardinals are exceptional on the offensive glass and UConn has a tendency to give up second chances. On the flip side, I would not expect the Huskies to have success rebounding their own missed shots. Against a team that plays defense like the Cardinals, that's potential trouble. It looks to me like UConn will have to shoot 50% from the field to have a real shot here, and I don't see it happening against this opponent. By no means does this look sensational, but I'm going to side with Louisville to get past the number in a win and cover.
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Minnesota +7 over DALLASFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mavericks cannot be trusted spotting this many points. Prior to beating the Grizzlies on Saturday, they had not won back to back games in over a month. They're 15-23 overall and while they're healthy for the first time all season, they're in a vulnerable spot here with games on deck against Houston and OKC after returning home from a trip and beating the Grizz. Additionally, Dallas has only been favored in this range (7 or more) in four games this season, failing to cover in three of them. Three of those were against Eastern clubs, Toronto, Washington and Detroit.
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Minnesota is sinking fast with nine losses in 13 games and three straight on this current four-game trip. They'll wrap things up here after losing the previous three by 22, 12 and 18 points respectively. The loss of Kevin Love hurts but they've played with injuries all year and they now have a healthy PG duo of Ricky Rubio and J.J. Barea. The T-Wolves are better defensively and are the better rebounders. They're extremely well-coached and it's unlikely for them to get whacked in all four games on this trip. Expect a battle here.
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Elon +106 over WESTERN CAROLINAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Carolina is 4-0 in conference play and they've won three straight. Elon is 1-2 in conference play and they've dropped two straight and four of six. Based on current form and conference records, spotting this cheap price at home with the Wildcats may seem enticing. Don’t fall for it. Digging deeper we see a WCU squad that is 5-9 against Division I teams after playing one of the softest schedules in the country, one that ranks 329 out of 347 Division I schools. The four conference games that WCU has won were against teams that are a combined 3-11 in conference play and two of those teams are a combined 0-7.
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Elon won the EA Sports Maui Invitational tourney back in November by defeating Florida International and Colgate. Not a big deal but winning that event has some history. In all, 85 schools representing 21 conferences and 38 states have competed in the EA SPORTS Maui Invitational. Maui participants have won an astounding 55 of 71 NCAA championships, 55 of 71 national runner-up spots and comprise 214 of 284 Final Four teams. The Phoenix are 8-7 overall, 1-2 in conference play, their SOS (strength of schedule) ranks 93rd in the nation and they're the superior team here. Look for them to hand WCU its deserving first conference loss.
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Norfolk St. -3FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Going to the MEAC tonight as the Oster has dug deep tonight to play the Spartans on the road vs a weak Howard U ball club @ the HU BURR CENTER... The Spartnas are lead by Philly's own Pedravius Williams who leads the Meac with a sweet 89.7% ft stroke.. The Spartans are well coached Anthony Evans and focused tonight. lay the 3 @ Howard as we will go road warrior tonight... huge edges on the glass & bench go to the Spartans..
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas MavericksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Another tough spot for the Timberwolves here as this will be their 5th game in 7 night's with a back to back scenario thrown in - Add in that their playing short handed with All-Star Kevin Love out with a broken hand, and I just can't see them coming with the needed effort tonight against a Mavericks team that is playing their best ball of the season. Dallas is coming off of an impressive win on Saturday against Memphis as Dirk Nowitzki is definitely rounding into form and Shawn Marion has looked sharp as of late. With the way both teams are playing right now I look for a double digit win and spread cover from the Mavericks here this evening.
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Atlanta Hawks at Chicago BullsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Atlanta HawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The (21-15) Atlanta Hawks of the NBA Eastern Conference Southeast division will take on the (20-15) Chicago Bulls of the Eastern Conference Central division in 2013 NBA action. Atlanta beat Chicago 92-75 earlier this season, but the Hawks are 1-5 Straight Up and Against The Spread their last 6. Chicago has lost their last 2 both straight up and ATS at home. The Bulls are only 3-7 ATS their last 10 overall. Atlanta gets the road cover.
John Ryan
Cavaliers at Kings
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-5 record for 84% winners since 2006. Play under with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. Both defenses have struggled this season, but I strongly believe that is already reflected in this line and exaggerated by public sentiment. Yet, these defenses are not horrid and they are playing better team defense. Kings offense is geared towards a half court set getting the ball as deep in the block as possible. They rank fifth averaging 44.4 points in the paint per game. However, Cleveland does a solid job defending the paint and rank 15th allowing 41.3 PPG from the paint area. Another factor this total is too high, in my opinion, is that both teams love to run a high paced game looking to maximize shot attempts. Cleveland ranks third averaging 84.6 shots per game and the Kings rank ninth averaging 83.3 shots per game. The matchups favor for both teams to play a more conservative style of play that will enhance their chances at winning the game. Take the UNDER.
Elon at Western Carolina
Prediction: Elon
The simulator shows a high probability that ELON will get a key road win tonight. WC is just 7-28 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team winning between 51% to 60%)= of their games after 15 or more games since 1997. Elon is not a sharp shooting team, but WC has not been successful exploiting those weaknesses in similar teams. WC is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when facing struggling shooting teams making <=42% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Sim shows a high probability that ELON will shoot between 40 and 46% from the field. In past games, they are 8-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take ELON.
Steve Janus
Washington Wizards -1½
The Wizards have recently welcomed back their best player in point guard John Wall. In his first game back Washington knocked off the Hawks at home by a final of 93-83, which followed a surprising 101-99 win at home against the Thunder. This team is going to start playing much better than their record would indicate and are clearly showing some value at home against the Magic. Orlando is getting too much respect for their 104-101 win on the road against the Clippers. That was more of a result of the Clippers not showing up to play than the Magic turning the corner. You can't ignore the fact that Orlando had lost 10 straight prior to that win, which included a 97-105 loss at Washington! The Magic are just 6-18 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons (favored by 1.5 in that loss at Washington).
Brandon Lee
Bobcats / Celtics Under 191
This may seem like a low total for a Bobcats game, but I look for the Celtics to control the tempo of this game and not allow it to turn into a track meet. Boston's defense has been much better since they got back Avery Bradley. Over the Celtics last six games they are allowing just under 86 ppg. With Boston playing on 2-days rest, I expect them to come out and try and bury the Bobcats early. In order for them to do that, they have to bring the intensity on the defensive end. The last time these two teams played, they combined for just 176 points!
John Martin
Oklahoma City Thunder -5½
We are getting the Oklahoma City Thunder at a bargain of a price tonight against the Phoenix Suns. The Thunder are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Suns, winning each of the last five matchups by double-digits. Phoenix is 3-16 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Phoenix.
Kelso
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls
This is as much a play against Atlanta as it is a play on the up-and-down Chicago Bulls. Atlanta is 1-5 in its last six games, including a 93-83 loss at Washington (6-28) in its last game, and certainly is not the same team that opened the season 20-10.
Cajun Sports
Minnesota vs. Dallas
Play: Over
The Dallas Mavericks are 10-0 Over at home after a home game in which they shot at least ten 3-pointers and made at least half. The Mavs are 10-5 Over at home this season.
Erin Rynning
Atlanta at Chicago
Play: Under
The Bulls have dropped two straight games at the United Center, which is an extreme rarity under head coach Tom Thibodeau. They lost to the Bucks and Suns, while allowing a combined 201 points. It makes sense the Bulls will turn it up on the defensive end on their home court tonight. The Bulls did beat the Knicks on Friday night at Madison Square Garden, 108-101. Keep in mind the Knicks really pushed the pace in that game trying to get back into the contest, while falling down by double-digits. In the fourth quarter alone there were 69 points scored. Meanwhile, the Hawks are stumbling over themselves in January. They’re 1-5 in their last six games and struggling on offense. They’ve remained a soft team, while too quick to launch a jump shot and not fighting for better looks in their half-court offense. The task will continue to be tough tonight as the Bulls are actually the best defensive team they’ve faced this month. The last seven times these two teams have met six went UNDER the total with a combined market total of 180.5. Play this game UNDER the total tonight on NBA TV.
David Banks
Atlanta / Chicago Under 185.5
Do not look for many fireworks on NBA TV on Monday night when the Chicago Bulls (20-15, 13-22 ATS), who have oddly struggled at home this year, host the slumping Atlanta Hawks (21-15, 14-21-1 ATS) at the United Center in Chicago, IL at 8:05 ET. The Bulls have one of the best road records in the NBA at 10-5, but they are inexplicably 10-10 at the United Center. The Hawks have lost five of their last six games mainly due to suddenly bad shooting.
Regardless of where the Bulls have played this season, offense has not been a strong suit for them while waiting for Derrick Rose to make his seasonal debut, which may come in as little as two weeks. Until then however, Chicago is ranked 26th in the NBA in scoring at 93.5 points per game and 19th in field goal percentage at 44.0 percent. Now, most teams shoot the ball better at home than they do on the road, but not the Bulls, as they average only 91.7 points on a putrid 42.7 percent shooting in their own building. Chicago allowed Charlotte to snap an 18-game losing streak at the United Center earlier this month, and then on Saturday the Bulls allowed the Denver Nuggets to snap a 12-game road losing streak in an ugly 97-81 loss while shooting a miserable 36.4 percent. Thankfully, the Bulls have continued to play fine defense through there shooting difficulties, ranking third in the NBA in points allowed at 92.3 per game. That average drops to a stifling 90.8 points at home, so it should come as no surprise that the 'under' is a lucrative 14-6, 70.0 percent in all Chicago home games this season with those contests averaging a combined 182.5 points.
Now, the Hawks rank smack on the middle of the pack in the NBA in scoring this year, reporting home 15th at 96.5 points per game, but Atlanta has abruptly lost its shooting touch while losing five of its last six contests. The Hawks have distressingly scored 84 points or less in four of those five losses, with the most recent being a 93-83 loss on Saturday to the team with the worst record in the NBA, the Washington Wizards. In fact, the Hawks also scored 83 points in a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last week, a Cleveland team that ranks dead last in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 47.1 percent! If Atlanta cannot get out of the 80s vs. a couple of the worst teams in the league, how are the Hawks supposed to score against a stiff Chicago defense? The Haws do grade out well on the defensive end though ranking sixth in points against at 95.5 points per encounter, so this could turn into an excruciating game to watch on both sides.
The 'under' is 6-1 on the last seven head-to-head meetings including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago. The 'under' is also 20-8 in the last 28 Chicago home games.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Baylor/ Kansas State Over 142.5: These are the two best scoring teams in the Big and they should produce plenty of points in this one. Both teams were involved in low scoring games over the weekend and that is not their style's. These team's like to get up an down the floor and play games in the 70's. Both teams are in the top 22 in points per possession and Baylor is 43rd in shots per game, while Kansas is 137th. Baylor has averaged 76.8 ppg on the year and have scored 73 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Kansas has averaged 77.8 ppg overall, including 81.6 ppg at home. Both teams are good from long range and both can hit their FT's. Should be an exciting up and down game and should also be close throughout, which should give us the fouling game in the end. 4 of the last 5 in this series has scored 150+ points and i see the same for this one.
Norfolk State -3.5 over HOWARD U: I did well with Norfolk State last year, going 3-1 in my plays involving them and this will be my first play on them this year. The Spartans have done well in this series of late, winning the last 6, with all 6 being by 8 or more and 5 of them by double digits. Norfolk has struggled on the road, but have played a tough road slate tat has included NC State, Illinois and Iona. They also had a game at Ball State and lost in that one by just 1 point. The Spartans are 3-0 in the MEAC and have won all 3 on the road. Howard comes in at 4-13 on the year and 1-2 in the MEAC. 2 of their conference losses came at the hands of 4-10 Hampton, with one of those games at home. Howard is not a good team at all his year and will struggle in one of the weaker conferences in the nation. The Spartans will continue to dominate the Bison with another DD win here.