Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 16

Louisville at Marquette
The Cardinals look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Louisville is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Golden Eagles favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+5)

Game 741-742: Louisville at Marquette (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 67.965; Marquette 70.820
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 3; 144
Vegas Line: Marquette by 5; 135
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+5); Over

Game 743-744: Texas A&M at Missouri (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 59.557; Missouri 73.791
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 14; 127
Vegas Line: Missouri by 16; 133
Dunkel Pick Texas A&M (+16); Under

Game 745-746: Pittsburgh at Syracuse (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 66.406; Syracuse 78.332
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 13; 132
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 15; 138
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+15); Under

Game 747-748: Notre Dame at Rutgers (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 66.216; Rutgers 63.544
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 2 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 127
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+3); Over

Game 749-750: Baylor at Kansas (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 74.648; Kansas 78.040
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 3 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Kansas by 6; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+6); Under

Game 751-752: BYU at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 69.520; San Diego 51.459
Dunkel Line: BYU by 18; 153
Vegas Line: BYU by 15; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-15); Over

Game 753-754: Rider at Fairfield (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 47.966; Fairfield 58.805
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 11; 147
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 9; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-9); Over

Game 755-756: Tennessee State at Austin Peay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 46.858; Austin Peay 56.030
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 9; 133
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 6; 145
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (-6); Under

Game 757-758: Idaho State at Portland State (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 42.516; Portland State 53.876
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 11 1/2; 150
Vegas Line: Portland State by 9 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-9 1/2); Over

MTi Sports

Thunder at Celtics
Prediction: Under

The Celtics are 0-8 OU (-12.5 ppg) at home after a loss in which Ray Allen scored fewer than 10 points and 0-6 OU (-17.5 ppg) with rest after a loss in which Paul Pierce had at least 5 turnovers. The Thunder are 0-8 OU (-15.5 ppg) after a win in which James Harden shot better than 50% from the arc. Take these two UNDER.

Scott Spreitzer

Bulls at Grizzlies
Play: Over

The Memphis Grizzlies’ offense is starting to pick up speed. After adjusting to life without forward Zach Randolph, Memphis has averaged 99 points over its past three outings, including a 108-99 victory over New Orleans Saturday. Swingman Rudy Gay has upped his production after a slow start to the month, scoring 49 total points in his last two outings. They welcome a rested Chicago Bulls squad that has had a day off to recharge their offensive battery. The Bulls have leaned more on their defense in recent outings but have the potential to put up big numbers. Derrick Rose is recovered from his bout with turf toe and will be full speed Monday. Looking into the trends, Memphis is 5-1 over/under in its last six home games and has also played over in 14 of their last 20 games on one-day’s rest.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Baylor at Kansas
Play: Kansas

This is where Baylor's unbeaten run comes to an end. They are 0-9 SU all-time in Lawrence where 10th ranked KU has already knocked off Ohio State and is a perfect 9-0 SU this year. The Jayhawks are also a perfect 7-0 ATS off a home win where they failed to cover the spread. They are off an 82-73 win over Iowa State here on Saturday as 15-point chalk. KU has an average margin of victory of 25 PPG at Allen Fieldhouse Rock, chalk, Jayhawk all the way here.

Matt Fargo

Notre Dame vs. Rutgers
Play: Notre Dame +3.5

Notre Dame has been extremely inconsistent of late but has followed up recent bad performances with good ones. The Irish are coming off a loss against Connecticut on Saturday and it was a scratch you head type of defeat as they were leading at halftime but fell apart down the stretch as they went just 12-36 shooting in the second half including a mere 1-15 from long range. They were outrebounded 42-30 as the size disadvantage was a clear liability. That should not be the case tonight. Rutgers is another team that has shown signs of greatness only to look horrible in its next game. The Scarlet Knights shocked Florida at home only to lost at South Florida next time out. They had back-to-back upset wins over Connecticut and at Pittsburgh only to get blasted by West Virginia in their most recent game this past Saturday. A return home should help but this is the first time in their last four home games they have been favored and that is not a good role as Rutgers is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite. Notre Dame runs a very disciplined offense that produces good shots and minimizes turnovers and it will be a challenge for Rutgers to defend. On the other side, the Scarlet Knights have to be careful with their own turnovers as they committed 19 against West Virginia Saturday which was a season high. Rutgers has a 0.84 assist/turnover ratio on the season and that simply is not going to cut it. Conversely, the Irish possess a 1.48 ratio and they are clearly the more efficient team here. The Scarlet Knights are 8-3 at home this season including those two upset wins as mentioned but they are only 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games including 0-6 ATS as a home favorite. Notre Dame has had it struggles here but it falls into a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss scoring less than 60 points and playing their 3rd game in a week. This situation is 57-28 ATS (67.1 percent) since 1997.

Cajun Sports

Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Dallas Mavericks +4

The Dallas Mavericks are riding a five-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread as they travel to the City of Angels for a meeting with Kobe and Company. Dallas 24-8 ATS as a road underdog the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 13-4 ATS as a road underdog in this price range. Dallas has gotten off to a slow start after capturing the title last season and their road record has suffered although they are 3-2 ATS when playing away from home. The Lakers have been solid at home so far this season posing a record of 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS. The Lakers are coming off a loss to the Clippers on Saturday 102 to 94 as a three-point underdog. The total in that game was 188 and the Lakers and Clippers went over the posted total. This is important in that the Lakers are 7-17 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive Overs. LA is 21-33 ATS as a home favorite the last two seasons. A check of our database reveals a system that tells us to play ON a road underdog playing their fifth game in seven days versus a team that is playing at least their ninth game in fourteen days, 41-17 against the spread including a mark of 11-4 ATS the last five seasons. The Mavericks seem to always get up for the Lakers and tonight will be no exception. Take the points

Craig Trapp

Baylor vs. Kansas
Play: Baylor +7

Love this matchup as KU is not nearly as good as they have been in the past and Baylor is looking to finally get over the hump in the Big12. BAY has won at KST which is just as tough as KU in our Power Rankings. KU lack of depth will hurt them tonight as Baylor can really wear on you. BAYLOR might even win this one straight up, but at worst they lose 4-5.

Rob Vinciletti

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics +2.5

The Celtics are slumping right now and lost their last 3 home games. However they do fit a nice system here tonight which plays on Non Division home dogs off a spread loss if they have a win percentage of .415 or less and are playing an opponent off 3+ spread wins. These home dogs are 71-24 ats long term. The Celtics are 15-5 vs North West Division teams and have won 5 of 6 the last 3 years when playing off 3 or more losses. In home games they are 20-7 when the total is 185 to 189.5. Look for the Celtics to surprise OKC Here tonight as a small dog.

Stephen Nover

Milwaukee @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia -8.5

The 76ers have been terrific at home going 5-0 SU and ATS. Milwaukee has been terrible on the road going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.

The 76ers have just been steamrolling opponents at Wells Fargo Center winning by a staggering average of 25.2 points per game.

The 76ers have become one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Next to the Bulls, the 76ers are the best defensive home club in the league holding foes to 79 points per game at Wells Fargo Center on 37.6 shooting from the floor. The 76ers are holding opposing clubs to 39.8 percent from the field, tops in the NBA.

That's bad news for a Bucks club that ranks 22nd in field goal percentage and has a tendency to rely too much on the erratic outside games of Stephen Jackson and Brandon Jennings.

Doug Collins has transformed the 76ers into not only a strong defensive club, but also one that takes care of the basketball committing an NBA-low 12.5 turnovers a game. Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young could be the top reserve tandem in the league.

The Bucks have struggled in Philadelphia losing in six of their past seven visits while going 1-5-1 ATS.

Center Andrew Bogut has been cleared to play for Milwaukee after missing the Bucks' last game due to concussion-like symptoms. The Bucks, though, are not healthy as Mike Dunleavy and defensive specialist Luc Richard Mbah a Moute remain out.

Until proven otherwise, the 76ers remain a hot home play while the Bucks are strictly fade material on the road.

Bryan Power

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
PICK: Pittsburgh +15

This could potentially be a season saver for slumping Pittsburgh, who is in the midst of a free fall that I've never seen during the tenure of Jamie Dixon. The Panthers come into Monday's showdown w/ top-ranked Syracuse on a six-game losing skid, finally covering a spread last time out as they caught a generous 9.5-pt number at Marquette in a 62-57 loss. The Orange are still one of three remaining unbeatens in the country (Baylor, Murray State). I could not tell you the last time Pitt opened as a 15-point underdog. Four of the six losses during the losing streak have come by five points or less. The cover against Marquette extended the Panthers ATS run as dogs to 11-3. Syracuse isn't going to win 'em all, so better start betting against them now!

BEN BURNS

Oklahoma City @ Boston
PICK: Boston +2.5

The Thunder are certainly playing well. I expect them to have their hands full this evening though.

The Celtics should really want this one. They've dropped four straight now. Note that they're still 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) the last six times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They're also still a healthy 15-9 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses.

The Celtics are a team capable of stepping up their game at any time. I expect that time to be tonight as they rise to the occasion and score the minor upset. Consider Boston.

Scott Rickenbach

Chicago @ Memphis
PICK: Over

The Memphis Grizzlies’ offense is starting to pick up speed. After adjusting to life without forward Zach Randolph, Memphis has averaged 99 points over its past three outings, including a 108-99 victory over New Orleans Saturday. Swingman Rudy Gay has upped his production after a slow start to the month, scoring 49 total points in his last two outings. They welcome a rested Chicago Bulls squad that has had a day off to recharge their offensive battery. The Bulls have leaned more on their defense in recent outings but have the potential to put up big numbers. Derrick Rose is recovered from his bout with turf toe and will be full speed Monday. Looking into the trends, Memphis is 5-1 over/under in its last six home games and has also played over in 14 of their last 20 games on one-day’s rest. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Memphis early Monday.

Sean Murphy

Winnipeg @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Ottawa Senators

There's no cooling off the Ottawa Senators right now.

They roll into Monday's game riding a four-game winning streak, and having won eight of their last nine overall. In fact, they're 11-3 overall dating all the way back to December 16th.

The Winnipeg Jets are at the opposite end of the spectrum. They've lost three games in a row, scoring a grand total of only four goals in the process.

The road hasn't been kind to the Jets this season, as they've posted a 6-15 SU record. That includes a 4-1 loss right here in Ottawa back in late October. They're 0-2 against the Sens this season, outscored by a wide 10-5 margin in those two setbacks.

This is a big game for the Sens, as they need all the momentum they can get with a six-game road trip beginning tomorrow night in Toronto.

After posting four consecutive underdog wins, they'll take a step down in class against the Jets, but I don't believe a letdown is in the cards.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Pittsburgh +13

Pitt has lost 6 in a row, but 4 of those losses have come by 5 points or less. In other words, the Panthers have been competitive but haven't been able to close out games. A win over top-ranked Syracuse could potentially change the entire complexion of the season for the Panthers. They will likely come up a little short tonight, but they have had too much success in this series to ignore. Pitt has been Syracuse's kryptonite. The Panthers have won each of the last 5, 8 of the last 9 and 13 of the last 16 in the series. The Panthers are 13-3 ATS in those 16 meetings and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Syracuse. The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Looking back, they are 26-11 ATS as a road underdog or pickem under coach Dixon. We'll take the points.