BRAD LEEB
NASHVILLE vs. NY ISLANDERS
PLAY: NASHVILLE
The Nashville Predators are on Long Island to play the New York Islanders at the Nassau Coliseum. The Predators are currently in 6th place in the Western Conference. They are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games with a 11-8-1 record on the road. The Islanders are currently in 14th place in the Eastern Conference. They are 5-5-0 in their last 10 games with a 10-10-3 record on home ice. The Predators are one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now, riding a 4 game winning streak. Their road record is also slightly better than the Islanders home record. Also, with Evgeni Nabokov earning his 300th career win last game, the Islanders might put Kevin Poulin in net. He has played 1 game this season, and would be rusty. This would increase the Predators chances.
Jim Feist
Sacramento Kings vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves look to rebound from their last loss at Atlanta that found them leading by 18-points, only to be outscored during one stretch 24-2. Additionally, the Wolves will look for their first win in their last four home games. While the Wolves and Kings both have the same amount of wins on the season (4), a lot more was expected from Minnesota this year than Sacramento. The Kings have not been competitive on the road this year, going 1-6 both SU and ATS away from home. If you toss out their lone road win at Toronto, the Kings have lost by 39 at Dallas, 14 at Houston, 27 at Philly, 27 at Denver, 17 at Memphis and 22 at Portland. Minnesota F Michael Beasley (Foot) is questionable tonight, but I don't see them really needing him. Lay the 7 1/2 or more points with the Wolves against a very bad road Kings club.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -½ -106 over Winnipeg
The Jets have played some very good hockey in their own building and even went on a serious run at one point. However, their play on the road has been another story and their overall play over the past month sees them appearing to have run out of gas. The Jets are dealing with injuries to four starting defensemen, including Dustin Byfuglien and Zach Bogosian and they're simply not deep enough to compensate. Winnipeg has just scored just once over its past two games and just six times over its last five games. They have six road wins in 21 games. The Senators are showing no signs of slowing down. They've won four in a row and eight of their past nine. The Sens have outscored the opposition 17-7 over the past four games and only once in their past nine have they been held touinder three goals. The Sens are at home, they're healthy, confident and in great form while the Jets are the complete opposite right now. Play: Ottawa -½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
N.Y. ISLANDERS +105 over Nashville
1:00 PM EST. The Predators play on the Island this afternoon and they play at Madison Square Gardens tomorrow. They've played here just twice since '06 and at MSG just once since '06 so it wouldn’t surprise if the Preds completely overlook this game in anticipation of playing one of the league's top teams in one of the league’s shrines. This is really a vulnerable spot for an overvalued guest that is quite average and quite beatable on the road. Despite a poor record, the Islanders have several good parts. They've won five of eight games and they're 4-1-0 in their last five at home. The Islanders are ranked in the top 10 for both power play and the penalty kill and that's a sign of good things to come. They had goaltending issues early in the year but Evgeni Nabokov has solidified the position and the team as a whole has stepped it up. The Islanders are coming off a recent 5-1 victory over the Red Wings and a 4-2 win over the Sabres. They're in a favorable spot here while offerering up some great value as a pooch in their own barn. Play N.Y. Islanders +105 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia 76ers -9
The Sixers might be the biggest surprise of the NBA season so far and they continue to get it done with defense and rebounding. In this game they get to play a Milwaukee team that is winless on the road this season is and is near the bottom of the NBA is both scoring and rebounding. Offensively the Sixers are averaging an NBA low 12.5 turnovers and they have seven players with scoring averages in double digits. Philadelphia has won all of their home games by double digits and I expect that to continue in this game. Lay the points.
Nelly
Cleveland + over Charlotte
Cleveland has quietly been a productive team so far this season, going 5-6 S/U and 7-4 ATS so far this season. Keep in mind this is a team that won just 19 games last season in an 82 game season. Antawn Jamison continues to be productive and rookie Kyrie Irving has already exceeded high expectations, averaging 17 points per game and delivering a nearly 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. The Cavaliers are a positive point differential team despite the losing record and despite battling through one of the tougher schedules in the league so far. Cleveland is playing a seventh consecutive road game after a west coast trip but the off day yesterday should help the cause and being back on Eastern time will be more comfortable. The Cavaliers won by 14 in Cleveland when these teams met earlier in the year and Charlotte is a team that is reeling with a 3-10 record and several key injuries. The Bobcats did pick up a win on Saturday against Golden State but they had lost six in row prior to that and are just 2-5 S/U at home on the year. Charlotte is allowing 102 points per game while Cleveland has improved dramatically as a defensive team this season in the second year for Coach Scott. The Cavaliers are the far better perimeter shooting team in this match-up and Cleveland has shown an ability to compete on the road.
David Banks
Mavericks / Lakers Over
The second leg of TNTs Martin Luther King Jr. Days NBA doubleheader closes out with the first meeting of the year between the Dallas Mavericks (8-5, 9-4 ATS) and the Los Angeles Lakers (9-5, 7-7 ATS); tip-off from the Staples Center is set for a 10:30 ET start.
The 2011-12 season didnt start off too well for the defending champs who dropped each of their first three before splitting their next two against the Toronto Raptors and Minnesota Timberwolves. Many thought the Mavs had gotten rid off too many important pieces to the puzzles, and while that may be true, Dallas found its sea legs almost two weeks into the season and enters tonights spot winners of five in a row both SU & ATS. They invade Staples in excellent form having buried both Sacramento and Milwaukee by an average of 32.5 points per game. Dirk Nowitzki (17.7 PPG) and Jason Terry (14.9 PPG) are still the two main scoring threats, but the Mavs recent success has not been because of the offense, but because of the defense which has allowed an average of just 89.7 PPG (34) on 42.8 percent shooting from the field (#7). Dallas has dropped three of its five games outright as visitors, but covered three of those contests against the closing number.
Though not as bad, the Lakers too got off to a slow start to their current campaign splitting their first six games of the season both SU and ATS which included an ugly 100-91 loss in their first road game at Sacramento. However since, Head Coach Mike Browns outfit has turned course winning six of their last eight games, and just had their five-game winning streak snapped by the in-city rival Clippers on Saturday night. Because of it, Kobe Bryant and his mates trail Blake Griffin and his for top honors by just half a game in the Pacific Division standings. The big three of The Black Mamba, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum are the only double-digit scorers on this team checking in with 32.0, 16.4, and 16.4 PPG, while the latter two have combined for nearly 24 rebounds per game to allow the Lakers to outboard its opposition by 5.79 rebounds per game (#2). That season opening loss at home to the Bulls has been the only time LA has been defeated as a host; its won each of its next eight since and covered the closing number six times.
You can bet the Lakers will be pumped for this match-up since its the first time they will have squared off against the Mavericks after they swept them in the Western Conference Semis last season. Dallas stands 6-4 SU & ATS in these rivals L/10 overall meetings and its also won three of its L/5 trips to Staples both SU & ATS. The over has cashed in seven of the L/10 overall meetings, as well as in three of the L/5 times these squads went at it in Tinseltown.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Memphis/ Chicago Over 177.5: The Bulls defense has been awesome of late as they have allowed just 69 ppg in their last 3 games, but Washington, Toronto and Boston have not been great offensive teams this year. Today they will be taking on a Memphis team that has scored very well at home this year, averaging 103 ppg on a solid 47.8% shooting. Memphis has also allowed points at home as teams have scored 94.8 ppg vs them here, while the Bulls come in averaging 98.9 ppg on 47.1 % shooting on the road. Now despite the good defense that Chicago has played of late this team has allowed 93.2 ppg an the road, compared to the 66.8 ppg they have allowed at home this year.Chicago has also allowed teams to shoot 45.5% overall, including 39.4% from long range on the road this year. This is not a Chicago home game, where their games have yet to hit 170 points in a game, but rather a road game where their games have averaged 192.1 ppg, while Memphis home games have put up 197.8 ppg. Both teams should be able to score in this one as this game hits 180+ with ease.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -8.5 over Milwaukee: 25.2 ppg. Are You serious? Well the Sixers are and that's how much they have won their home games by this year. Philly has averaged 104.2 ppg on 50.2 % shooting at the Wells Fargo Center, while allowing just 79 ppg there, which is 2nd in the league behind the Bulls. Philly has allowed just 37.6% shooting overall and 18.3% from long range at home as well. None of that bodes well for Milwaukee, which has dropped six of its last seven in Philadelphia including both visits last season as the teams split their four-game overall series. Making matters worse for the Bucks, who are undefeated at home, is the fact they're an NBA-worst 0-7 on the road and have been outscored by 9.9 ppg away from home. Going up against a team that plays great defense like Philly is not good for a Milwaukee team that has averaged just 87 ppg on 39.9% shooting on the road this year. Philly also gets the rebounding edge and they are tops in the league in turnovers per game (12.5). This is just too much for the Bucks to overcome here as the Sixers win another home game by 15+ points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on home favorites after they beat the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against an opponent that has gone over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. This play is 38-14 over the last 5 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Washington/ Houston Under 189.5: WASHINGTON is 16-5 UNDER as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons and 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Marquette/ Louisville Over 135: Inconsistency on offense has been what has been hurting the Cardinals of late, especially on the road, where they have averaged 64.7 ppg in their last 3. Today they do face a Marquette team hat plays tough defense, but also a team that has struggled at that end of the floor of late, as they have allowed 73 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. That should get the Cardinal offense back on track today. Louisville has dealt with inconsistency at the defensive end this year as well, as they have allowed just 60.9 ppg overall, but once Big East play has started they have allowed 69 ppg. That won't get it done today vs a strong Marquette offense that has averaged 76.8 ppg on 46.35 shooting overall, including 79.7 ppg on 48.2 % shooting. This is a team that likes to push the ball and in order for Louisville to get back to their offensive consistency they will need to push the ball as well. Both defenses are struggling some right and that should open the door for plenty of scoring from 2 offenses that can score in bunches. I expect 140+ here.
WUNDERDOG
Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -8.5
After a long stretch of looking up at the teams in the Atlantic Division, the Philadelphia 76ers are coming of age and have opened the season at 9-3 and already have a three-game lead in the division. They have catapulted to the top by winning eight of their last nine games. They have nine wins on the season, and have done it in spectacular fashion as all nine wins have come by 10 points or more. The Bucks have been futile of late on the road, losing their last two by a combined 42 points. They are simply out-manned here and are running into a buzz saw. The Bucks have yet to break through on the road at 0-7 and are 1-6 ATS as well, and Philly certainly hasn't been a healing place where they have covered just one of the last seven trips into the City of Brotherly Love. No love here, so play on Philly.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +9 over L.A. CLIPPERS
The Clippers’ stock is soaring after consecutive wins over the Heat and Lakers. Think about that for a second. Historically, this is one of the worst franchises in all of sports in terms of winning percentage and they just knocked off two monsters. A letdown is almost inevitable and it's the perfect opportunity to sell high. While there is definite improvement, questions still remain. With Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the Clippers will win a lot of games but this is a really small team that usually gets dominated on the boards. They also have a weak bench that can't pick up the slack if and when the starters struggle. The Nets 3-10 record has them in the bottom feeder category but they're closer than most think. Five of the Nets last six games could be considered decent outings and it includes a 5-point loss to Atlanta, an 8-point loss in Denver and a 7-point win in Phoenix. The Nets catch the Clip Joint at precisely the right time and it also appears as though Chris Paul could see limited minutes here due to a bum ankle. Upset possibility. Play: New Jersey +9 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
MINNESOTA -7 over Sacramento
The Kings are a team in trouble. They picked up many bad habits by former coach Paul Westphal and now Keith Smart has to clean up the mess. No team in the NBA takes as many low percentage shots as the Kings and it appears as though it is not a priority on Smart’s list of to-do’s. Sac will play its fifth game in eight days here with all of them being on the road. They're coming off a 39-point loss in Dallas and a 14-point loss in Houston. They're 1-6 on the road with every loss being by 14 points or more. The T-Wolves are well-coached. They're coming off a two-point loss in Atlanta, in a game they basically gave away. You can be sure that Rick Adelman will have addressed that one. The T-Wolves are just 4-8 (just a half game better than the Kings) and that record has them very undervalued. There's no comparison to the two teams in terms of talent and direction. Ricky Rubio is scary good. Kevin Love has become one of the top power forwards in the game. He can dominate a game in much the same way Dwight Howard does. Minnesota already has a 17-point home win over Dallas and a 10-point home win over the Spurs. With three straight home losses after that and after blowing a late 18-point lead in Atlanta, expect the T-Wolves to keep the pedal to the medal and bury this lame guest. Play: Minnesota -7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Pass College CBB
Lenny Del Genio
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
How long can the superstar-less Sixers keep this act up? They start the week on top of the Atlantic Division at 9-3 w/ the best point differential in the league at +15.2. However, this will also be their sixth game in eight days. They did not practice yesterday after completing a home & home sweep of sad sack Washington. Milwaukee has had two days off after being blown out in Dallas, 102-76, dropping them to 0-7 on the road this year. Note that the Bucks are 19-8 ATS off a double digit road loss the L3 seasons. They also get C Andrew Bogut back and possibly backup PG Udrih as well. Milwaukee has lost all five games Bogut has missed this season. This figures to be a low-scoring game where taking the points is the way to go. Take Milwaukee.
Jack Jones
New Orleans Hornets +6
The Portland Trail Blazers have not been good on the road this season, and they should not be favored this heavily at New Orleans because of it. While the Blazers are 6-1 at home, they are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season. Portland is getting outscored by 7.6 points/game away from home.
Marcus Camby (ankle) is doubtful to go tonight fot the Blazers. While he isn't a huge threat offensively, Camby is their best defender and he's a big reason for their success in the early going. I look for Carl Landry (13.2 PPG), Chris Kaman (10.5 PPG) and Emeka Okafor (8.7 PPG) to benefit for the Hornets with the absence of Camby.
The Blazers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. Portland is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest opponents. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Portland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bet New Orleans Monday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Texas A&M +15
The Mizzou Tigers are getting a little too much respect here against a Texas A&M squad that has won 8 straight in the series. In fact, the Aggies are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Missouri. Also, the Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more. 4 of Missouri's last 5 wins have come by 11 points or less. We'll take Texas A&M.
Andre Gomes
Washington Wizards +5
I can actually see Houston struggling on this contest. They have three areas where they generally struggle on defense: fast break points, interior defense and allowing offensive rebounds. These are exactly the three areas where Washington did well on their last game against the Sixers, especially in the 2nd half. Their head coach Flip Saunders was satisfied with the way the team played in that 2nd half, with John Wall having his best game of the season so far:
"I would say the second half was the best half of basketball he has ever played with us. He was being really aggressive and put in a great effort. As a point guard, you are the leader of the team. He is the first line of defense. He was a constant asset tonight. He got frustrated at times but we talked him through it and maintained his focus."
The Wizards have had so many games in which players shoot after the first pass on offense or take turns going on one-on-one, dribble-shake-and-shoot-fests that they were probably shocked by what happened on Saturday against the Philadelphia 76ers: players were actually looking to make the extra pass. The result was a game in which the Wizards shared the ball and had 19 assists - their second most in a game all season!
On the other side, Houston continues to struggle on their interior defense by allowing 66% FG at the rim and even 43% FG from 3-9 feet! I can see Washington having a good offensive game today, as Houston is basically a poor defensive team. They rank dead last in P&R Ball Handler with 0.88 PPP allowed and they are also a subpar team in allowing offensive rebounds to their opponents (24th in the league). Houston's backcourt is surely tired after two gruelling games, where Martin and Lowry played respectively 39 and 41 minutes vs Sacramento and 49 and 48 minutes vs Portland!
This game is a weird one for Houston, as they are coming from two home games and after this game, they will play three more home games, including one tomorrow against Detroit! So, the spot for Houston is a bit tough, while Washington is coming from a decent showing against the Sixers, especially in the 2nd half. I believe the Wizards have the tools to explore the poor defense of the Rockets and so, I expect a tight here in here. Therefore, I'll take Washington today.
FREE NBA PLAY FOR 1/16: We'll side with the OVER 182 points between Portland and New Orleans. This number is set just a little too low. The Hornets are not quite as stong defensively as they've been in recent years, allowing 92.4 points and 42.8 FG% per game to opposing teams so far. Portland can put up points in a hurry, as they are dropping 99.1/game. But we're not so quick to jump on the Portland side for this game, as they are also give up a ton of baskets when away from home. The Trailblazers allow 98.8 points/game on 46% shooting to opponents on the road. So we'll avoid the sides and just cash in on the over for this game. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these clubls, and 4-1 in the last five in New Orleans. The over is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 vs. the Southwest. And the over is a perfect 4-0 in the Hornets last 4 vs. winning teams. Take the over 182 here. FREE PICKS NOW 141-77-1. Sign up today to receive all of our Free Plays with in depth analysis via email. Thank You & Good Luck!