Marc Lawrence
Baylor at Kansas
Play: Baylor
The bad news Bears will bring a perfect 17-0 mark into this battle for Big 12 supremacy. Coming off a discouraging 18-13 effort last year in which BU was shut out of the Big Dance, it will be of paramount importance for the visitors not to get caught up in the hype that accompanies their lofty ranking. "We try not to pay attention to that, but it’s hard not to," senior forward Quincy Acy admitted. "Last year we got a little fame, and we got embarrassed a couple times.” Acy, who has scored an incredible 51 percent of his career field goals off dunks, is also a key cog in Baylor’s stifling zone defense, currently limiting foes to a paltry 59 PPG. It also helps that the Waco Bears have cashed in six of their last seven trips to Lawrence and the series visitor owns an attention-getting 12-3 ATS mark. And whereas the Bears were unceremoniously skinned when taking points last year (2-6 ATS), the current edition has covered all three appearances as a dog this season. With the Jayhawks a pitiful 1-7 ATS before tangling with Texas – including 0-5 ATS at home – there’ll be no rock-chalk for us today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baylor.
Steve Janus
Notre Dame +3.5
While Notre Dame is just 1-6 on the road this season, their last game on the road they went into Louisville and beat the Cardinals 67-65 as 12-point underdogs. My money is on the Fighting Irish to pull off another road upset against Rugters. The Scarlet Knights are a respectable 9-3 at home this season, but are just 2-4 ATS in line games.
Notre Dame has been a hard to figure out, as they look great one game and then completely fall apart the next. The Irish seem to respond well to a loss, as they have followed up their last three defeats with a win. They lost at home to Connecticut 53-67 on Saturday, despite leading in that game at half.
Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East, while Rutgers is just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
NHL PREDICTIONS
Winnipeg Jets -164
The Winnipeg Jets have been one of the leagues better home teams, but their road play is a different story. The Jets are just 6-11-4 away from home, where they are allowing 3.57 goals against per game (while scoring just 2.48 per game). Winnipeg has dropped 5 of their last 6 games overall, with their only win coming in overtime against a struggling Buffalo team. Losses came on the road against Montreal, Toronto and Boston and at home against San Jose and New Jersey. The Jets are scoring just 1.20 goals per game over their last 5. Dustin Byfuglien is clearly missed in this Jets line up and won't be back for tonight's game. The Jets will also likely be without Blake Wheeler who got hit in the throat with a puck on Saturday, and D-men Mark Flood and Zach Bogosian are questionable. The Ottawa Senators have been one of the best teams in the NHL lately, winning 8 of their last 9 games (with 5 of those games being on the road). The Sens are 14-8-1 on home ice this season. Ottawa has averaged over 3 goals per game on the season, and 3.60 goals per game over their last 5. Recent success has been a combination of offense, defense, and goaltending, with Craig Anderson leading the way in between the pipes. Anderson has been in net for for 13 straight games now I believe, and he has won 8 of his last 9 starts. During those 9 starts he allowed more than 2 goals just twice. These two teams have met twice this season with the Senators winning both - 4-1 at home and 6-4 in Winnipeg. Take note that the Sens are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a home favorite, and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a team with a road winning % below .400. Ottawa is playing too good of hockey right now for the Jets to come in a disrupt that. Winnipeg is having scoring troubles and are facing a hot goalie tonight. I like the Senators at home laying the -164.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Baylor/ Kansas Over 138: Google News Play (23-10 on the year). This should be a classic game and one that i feel will be high scoring. Kansas does play very good defense (549.2 ppg) But I don't expect that to phase this Bear offense that is 29th in the nation in scoring (76.8 ppg), while coming off a game in which they hung a 106 points on a Oklahoma State team that is 33rd in the nation in defensive FG%, allowing just 39.1% shooting and 65.5 ppg. The Bears have allowed just 59.6 ppg on the year, but in their last 2 games they have allowed 69 ppg and they should have some problems tonight vs a Kansas team that is 43rd in scoring (75.9 ppg) and 29th in shooting (47.9%), plus they have hit 80+ points in their last 2 games. Both eam will look to run some in this one, knowing that it is much harder to score vs both of these half court defenses. Let's also note that BAYLOR is 26-13 OVER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997, while KANSAS is 16-5 OVER in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. I smell a shootout here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Marquette/ Louisville Over 135: Inconsistency on offense has been what has been hurting the Cardinals of late, especially on the road, where they have averaged 64.7 ppg in their last 3. Today they do face a Marquette team hat plays tough defense, but also a team that has struggled at that end of the floor of late, as they have allowed 73 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. That should get the Cardinal offense back on track today. Louisville has dealt with inconsistency at the defensive end this year as well, as they have allowed just 60.9 ppg overall, but once Big East play has started they have allowed 69 ppg. That won't get it done today vs a strong Marquette offense that has averaged 76.8 ppg on 46.35 shooting overall, including 79.7 ppg on 48.2 % shooting. This is a team that likes to push the ball and in order for Louisville to get back to their offensive consistency they will need to push the ball as well. Both defenses are struggling some right and that should open the door for plenty of scoring from 2 offenses that can score in bunches. I expect 140+ here.
Pittsburgh/ Syracuse Under 136: Google News Play Defense is key here along with a pathetic Pitt offense that has scored just 59.2 ppg during their slide. Pitt had 1 high scoring game during their streak and that was the Depaul game (165 points), and if we take out that game then each one of their other 5 games have failed to top 131 points, with those games averaging 118.6 ppg. Pittsburgh can't score right now and they know the only way fro them to win is with sold defense. It may not be easy vs this strong Cuse offense, but Pitt has held Syracuse to 67 points or less in 8 of the last 10 meetings. The Orange really have not had a problem on the defensive end as they have allowed just 60.2 ppg on 38% shooting overall and a mere 57.2 ppg on 35.5 % shooting at home. It should be hard for this anemic Pitt offense to hit 60 in this one. Only 1 team can score in a game that will feature 2 good defensive teams. I really don't expect this one to hit 125. KEY TREND--- PITTSBURGH is 25-12 UNDER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997, with just 133.8 ppg being scored in this situation.
MISSOURI -15 over Texas A&M: The Aggies have taken the last 7 in this series, but the time is now for the Tigers to exact some revenge. After their loss to KSU, the Tigers have gotten back on track with a couple of solid wins. The Tigers are 11-0 at home and have won by an average of 25.4 ppg in those games. They average 86.9 ppg on their home floor, while the Aggies have averaged a mere 51.5 ppg on the road and 55.6 ppg in their last 5 overall. The Aggies just can score in any phase of their offense as they have put up 61.5 pg on 43.3% shooting overall, including just 28.6% from long range and they have also hit just 63.4% from the FT line. Although the Aggies have the top defense in the conference, they will have trouble slowing down the Tigers. Missouri has too many capable scorers and a solid point guard to get them all involved. The Aggies just don't have enough offense to keep this one close. KEY TRENDS--- TEXAS A&M is 3-12 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons, while MISSOURI is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Texas A&M/ Missouri Over 135: MISSOURI is 19-8 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons.
BYU/ San Diego Under 147.5: Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BYU) if they are an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) and scored 85+ points in last game and are playing a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG). This play is 47-19 since 1997.
Scott Delaney
My free play in the NBA tonight is going to be on the Minnesota Timberwolves, as they look to snap a three-game home losing streak in game I think they should be able to win big, given the opponent. The 4-9 Sacramento Kings roll into Minneapolis after one of the franchise's al-time worst offensive performances.
Sacramento is in after being embarrassed by the Mavericks, losing 99-60, the fourth time in five games the Kings lost. Sacrameno managed just 23 first-half points - a franchise-low - and is now just 2-4 sine Keith Smart replaced Paul Westphal.
I still think the T'Wolves have a chance to surprise some teams when they get healthy, as they remain competitive right now with Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio leading the charge. Love leads the league with 12 double-doubles. Scoring phenom Michael Beasley is questionable tonight, after he missed the last five games with a right foot sprain. J.J. Barea has also been nursing an injury.
And while those are key components to this lineup and to the success of this team, I don't think they're necessities against a team like Sacramento. Lay the home chalk with the T'Wolves.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien
Goin to the Ohio Valley Conference for your free winner tonight, as I play the Austin Peay Governors over the Tennessee State Tigers, laying the touchdown against a very inconsistent basketball team. The Tigers have been a team of streaks, and though they currently are on a winning run, I don't think they're going to be able to handle the Governors, who have also reeled off some streaks of their own.
Austin Peay has won two straight as of now, including a 60-57 victory over Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Governors get balanced scoring from their lineup, including guard TyShwan Edmondson, who is averaging 12.8 points per game, one of three key members of the team who is averaging double digits in scoring.
I know Austin Peay has one of the worst scoring defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference, allowing 73.6 points per game, but when they get involved in a shootout, they're perfectly capable of matching wits on the scoreboard and taking advantage of mistake-prone teams like the Tigers.
Since losing nine in a row to start their season, the Governors have won five of nine and have improved along the way. This one being at home, I am much more inclined to lay the points.
3♦ AUSTIN PEAY
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is Oklahoma City as the road favorite in Boston tonight.
It is clear the Celtics are a team in decline, as their 4-7 straight up mark this season leaves a lot to be desired!
The C's are just 2-4 against the spread on their parquet floor this year, and they are facing an Oklahoma City team that looks every bit like the title contender many pundits thought they would be when the season finally got started.
The Thunder rolls into Beantown riding a six-game winning streak, and a four-game cover streak. I don't see this young team being bothered at all by the aging Celtics tonight.
This has been a road-oriented series, as the visiting team has won and covered the last four series meetings.
Stick with the proven commodity here, as Oklahoma City beats back the aging and fading Celtics tonight in Boston.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Celtics plus the points as they host the Thunder. It's not that I think the Celtics are anywhere near as good as the Thunder, but rather that this is a critical spot for them to stop the bleeding. OKC has been rolling and it makes no sense that the oddsmakers are making it so easy to play them tonight. The only rational explanation is they believe the Thunder will have a letdown, while the Celtics should be highly motivated tonight having lost four straight.
Boston will be hosting their former teammater, Kendrick Perkins, for the first time since the trade tonight and that should have a strong motivational effect on Pierce and Garnett. That's good news for Boston fans because both players looked good in their loss to the Pacers Saturday. Garnett was especially solid and he's been quoted as saying he feels like a "big brother" to Perkins. Look for him to get amped for a match up against Perkins tonight.
Finally, Rondo is coming off an awful game against Indiana, and I suspect he'll be looking to bounce back tonight. He still had nine assists, but continues to turn the ball over too much (12 turnover last 3 games). As Pierce and Garnett round into form, we should see his stats pick up, not to mention the last time he faced Westbrook he got taken behind the woodshed. All things considered, this fishy line prompts me to make a small play on the Celtics plus the points tonight.
1♦ BOSTON