Rob Vinciletti
Texas Tech -2½
Texas Tech is ranked 36 in the RPI Scale and has played the 8th hardest schedule in the country. They have won both games vs teams ranked 100 to 200 in the RPI Scale and 3 of the last 4 as a road favorite of 3 or less. TCU is ranked 165th and has played a much easier schedule at 140th. They have failed to cover 5 of the last 6 here at home vs Texas Tech. We will back the better team. Take Texas Tech.
Mike Lundin
Blazers vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -4½
This looks like a good spot to back the Washington Wizards home at Verizon Center on MLK Day. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from defeats as the Blazers fell 114-89 at Philly Saturday while the Wizards had a four-game winning streak come to an end in a 119-117 loss against the Celtics the same day. The Trail Blazers are just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points though while the Wizards are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. Portland had some backcourt issues Saturday as Damian Lillard managed only 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting while C.J. McCollum is shooting 33.3% from the field in the last five games. For a team that relies on its backcourt as much as Portland that's obviously extremely bad news. The Wizards meanwhile have a red hot John Wall who recorded 36 points, 13 assists, seven rebounds and seven steals in Saturday’s loss. We can also note that the Trail Blazers are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings in Washington, and I expect the Wizards to run away with this game fairly comfortably.
Jim Feist
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons
Pick: Detroit Pistons
Not sure what is going on with the Bulls these days. After winning six straight games, the Bulls have now lost four of their last five. Furthermore, their one win was an OT win over the Sixers. The Bulls are now just 15-24 ATS on the season and 6-10 on the road. Detroit is 22-18 S/U on the season and 22-17 ATS. The Pistons shocked the Golden State Warriors on Saturday, 113-95. They held the Warriors to their lowest shooting percentage of the season (36.2%). The win was the Pistons fourth in the last six games both S/U and ATS. This will be the third meeting between these clubs this season, with Detroit holding a 2-0 S/U and ATS mark. The Pistons have now covered five straight in the series. I'm taking the Pistons here on Monday as the Bulls just not playing well of late.
Ben Burns
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks
The Knicks play host to Atlantic Divisional rival Philadelphia Monday, with the 76ers in a rare spot, having knocked off the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday. New York has been one of the best ATS teams in the NBA, boasting a 25-17 ATS record heading into Monday, but two tough road games have sapped some of that value. Now, back home in Madison Square Garden against a Philadelphia side that has struggled to build momentum – going 1-6 ATS in their last six games off a win - the Knicks can benefit from some familiar surroundings. New York averages more than 100 points on 45 percent shooting at home, while allowing 97.9 points compared to 101.4 on the road. The Knicks have also dominated divisional foes at the window, with a 5-2 ATS mark against Atlantic rivals.
Sleepyj
Portland +4.5
I feel a big night is coming up for the Blazers here...Washington might have some talent, but i'm not sold over with the Wizards right now..The defense they play is poor at best..They allow 104ppg..That's good for 24th in the league..Now the Blazers on defense are just a tad better at 20th...Blazers went into Philly just two nights ago and got smoked by the 76ers..That loss stings for sure..It was a tough spot though for the Blazers..Sandwich road game for them in that one..Not to mention it's very easy to overlook the Sixers..The Sixers FWIW are a improving team right now as well..The Blazers right now have a great 40 days lined up for them though..They will get the benefit of playing 12 of the next 14 games at home..That's huge for them right now..Not to mention they are sitting just outside of the playoffs right now..They have all the talent they need to make the playoffs and i believe they can compete here on the road tonight..John Wall for the Wizards has been lights out over the last week..Slow down Wall, and Blazers have a chance to win this one outright...Damien Lillard will have a monster tonight..Trust me..Look for a few player props with Lillard tonight..Anything in the 24pt range..Play it over..he goes for 30 or 40 tonight..He will be feeling good...Give me the 4.5 points in a game i think the Blazers can win outright...Otto Porter for the Wizards may or may not play as well.
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play is to back Orlando plus the points in their game at Atlanta.
True, the Magic have been a bust of late, losers of 6 of their last 7 straight up, but they have covered in 2 of their last 3 games, and they are facing a very inconsistent Atlanta team that in not exactly "money in the bank" when it comes to covering games these days.
The Hawks have lost 5 of their last 9 games overall, and they have also failed the spread in 5 of their past 9 games.
Atlanta has won the last 3 series meetings straight up, but it is Orlando that stands at 6-2 against the spread the past 8 series meetings, and the Magic are also 5-1 against the spread the last 6 series meetings in Atlanta.
The points work with the underdog today.
2* ORLANDO
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Warriors as the small underdog at Cleveland.
Final regular season meeting between last year's finalists, and it sure looks like Golden State has Cleveland's number.
The Warriors of course dispatched the Cavaliers in 6 games last June to capture the NBA Championship, and then on Christmas day the Warriors were the 89-83 winner as the -7 point home chalk.
This time around, the Warriors are actually getting a few points, as Golden State has lost their last pair on the road to drop to 37-4 on the year. I think that the Warriors loss in Detroit over the weekend is a direct result of Golden State peeking ahead on their schedule towards this game, and I think you will see a more focused Warriors effort tonight.
Cleveland is playing their first game at home after playing 6 straight on the road, and it is always hard to get back to "normal" being back at home after such a long road swing.
It will be another war, but in the end, Golden State once again will beat back Cleveland and show them who is the boss.
Take any points available and side with the Warriors.
4* GOLDEN STATE
Brandon Lee
Nets vs. Raptors
Play:Nets +11½
This is a great price to back Brooklyn on the road against division rival Toronto. The Nets are just 1-7 in their last 8 games and are undervalued because of it. The Raptors are the better team here, but this is a tough spot for Toronto after playing their previous game in London. I look for the Raptors to come out sluggish, while the Nets come out motivated to revenge an ugly 74-91 home loss to Toronto back on 1/6. Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after 4 or more consecutive wins, while Nets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 off 2 straight losses by 10 or more.
Alex Smart
Valparaiso vs. Youngstown State
Play: Youngstown State +18
Valparaiso is a fine team but they enter game on tired legs after playing Friday and Saturday night, and with this being their third game in 4 nights, they will not be in the mood to run. Val is also most probably over looking this Youngstown State side, and I cant say as I blame them, for a lack of motivation vs this type of struggling side. However ,with that said, Im betting the power house Crusaders side will just do enough to come out of this with a victory and at the same time reserve energy for a much more viable opponent, Wright State in their next game on the 18th. Meanwhile, Youngstown State despite of some dismal work of late, still have a capable coach at the helm, HC Slocum who is a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 at home as a 10 point or more underdog. Also HC Drew of Valparairso , has had problems after successive covers of 4 or more, as his teams are 0-7 ATS L/7 in follow up events.
Jimmy Boyd
Cavaliers -3
Cleveland is showing great value here as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Warriors. The Cavaliers have been playing their best basketball of the season of late, as they coming in having won 9 of their last 10. The only loss being a 95-99 defeat at San Antonio. Golden State is still one of the elite teams in the west, but they have slipped up twice in their last 3 games, including a 95-113 loss to Detroit in their last game.
The perception for the public is the Warriors won't lose two straight games, but I just don't see them going into Cleveland and getting a win. This game means everything to the Cavaliers, who not only lost at Golden State earlier this season, but lost the NBA Finals the last time the Warriors visited Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland is really getting after it on the defensive end, as they are holding opponents to just 93.4 ppg over their last 5 and giving up just 95.3 ppg at home on the season. They held Houston to a mere 77 points in their last game and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after holding their previous opponent to 80 or less. Keep in mind they only allowed 89 against the Warriors in Golden State back on Christmas Day. It's also important to note that the Cavaliers are a dominant 15-1 at home this season and all 4 of the Warriors losses have come on the road.
Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Warriors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference.
Joseph D'Amico
Purdue vs. Rutgers
Play: Purdue -20
Rutgers is plummeting, losing 5 in a row SU, the L4 ATS, and sporting an 0-5 Conference mark, while Purdue is playing solid with recent wins and covers over such notables as Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State. The Boilermakers front court of big men, Hammons, Haas, Swanigan, and Edwards will own the boards and add to the Scarlet Knights woes of an 8-22 ATS run their L30 vs. Big Ten foes.
Power Sports
Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Arkansas St.
Pick: Arkansas St.
The underdog Red Wolves lost SU as a favorite their last time out, 86-72 to Appalachian State as eight-point chalk. I'm willing to "chalk" that up as a look ahead as the team was likely pointing to this showdown with SBC leader Ark Little Rock. On the bright side, the value is now strong on ASU as a dog here. Take the pts.
Arkansas Little Rock is a team that deserves your attention as the Trojans are 15-1 SU overall and unbeaten in conference (Sun Belt) play. This was set to be a battle of conference unbeatens before ASU went and lost outright to an Applachian State team that previously had not won a single time on the road this year. While that result may make you a little queasy here, I don't see ASU shooting the ball as poorly as they did Saturday (36.8 percent). Shockingly, the Red Wolves found themselves trailing by 17 at halftime. A better performance here is all but guaranteed.
ALR, meanwhile, also happened to play Appalachian State its time out. Their game took place Thursday and the result was much different than what ASU experienced. Playing at home, the Trojans crushed the Mountaineers, 81-55 as 15.5-point favorites. These vastly different results against the same opponent have only served to help drive this number up higher than it should be. My power ratings say the line should only be -5, so right off the bat there's a little value. Throw in a double revenge angle for the home dog and I see a very real possibility of an upset here.
Wunderdog
New Orleans @ Memphis
Pick: New Orleans +4
New Orleans looks to avenge a 113-104 loss to Memphis on Dec. 1st in a game where Anthony Davis had an off night making just 4-of-15 from the field. The Pelicans have won two in a row after beating Charlotte 109-107 on Friday as Ryan Anderson poured in 32 points with eight rebounds, and Davis was 8-of-14 and finished with 22 points. New Orleans shot 49.4 percent from the floor and made 12-of-27 from beyond the arc in Friday's win. Memphis defeated New York 103-95 on Saturday as Marc Gasol had a monster game scoring 37 points. The Pelicans are 7-2 ATS after an ATS loss, and the Grizzlies are 2-6 ATS after scoring at least 100 points in their previous game. Memphis is not known for a high-scoring offense and should cool off in tonight's matchup. New Orleans has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 meetings. Grab the points and play the Pelicans.
Bruce Marshall
Valparaiso -18
Properly alerted after recent Youngstown wins over Horizon contenders Oakland and Green Bay, expect loop favorite Valpo to take care of business in DeBartolo Town. The Crusaders recently sent their own message to Oakland with a romp over the Golden Griz, and Bryce Drew's team is better-balanced at both ends of the court than the Penguins. Recent efforts by high-scoring Crusader F Alec Peters (17.9 ppg; 39 vs. Detroit on Jan. 10) and Canadian import G Tevonn Walker (23 ppg last two thru Jan. 13) suggest a focused Valpo handles this assignment.
Rocketman
Oklahoma @ Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -2
The Oklahoma Sooners travel to Iowa State to take on the Cyclones on Monday night. Oklahoma is 15-1 SU overall this year while Iowa State is 13-4 SU overall on the season. Iowa State is 25-4 SU and 24-4 ATS last 29 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or a pick. Iowa State is 38-3 SU at home the past 3 years. Oklahoma is allowing 81.6 points per game their past 5 games overall and 81.6 points per game against division opponents this season. Iowa State is scoring 85.2 points per game overall this year, 87.4 points per game at home this season, 83 points per game their past 5 games overall and 83 points per game against division opponents this season. We'll recommend a small play on Iowa State tonight!