Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 23

Marc Lawrence

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

When the Spurs travel to New Orleans to meet the Hornets in a Southwest Division battle knowing there is nothing better to wake them up from the doldrums than facing a division foe on the road when the San Antonio is not playing up to speed. That's confirmed by the fact that the Spurs are 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS on the road with a win percentage of less than .700 and playing off two losses-exact when facing a division foe that was not favored by 7 or more points in its last game. In addition, San Antonio stands 20-2 SU and 15-7 ATS in this series when the Hornets owns a win percentage of less than .540, including 9-0 SU and ATS away when the Spurs check in at less than .800 on the season. With that look for San Antonio to improve to 3-0 ATS on this floor in games off back-to-back losses here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on San Antonio.

Vegas Experts

Winnipeg at Carolina
Play: Winnipeg

Winnipeg seems to have some under rated value as small +110 road underdogs against Carolina tonight. They have beat Carolina all three times so far this season (3-0 SU) and their last win was in the middle of December; 4-2 as -155 favorites. They beat them on the road 3-1 already this year as +120 favorites and will have another underdog win tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

San Jose Sharks vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: San Jose Sharks

The Sharks are too high for unit rating here but should be nice for the free play as they have handled losing teams winning 15 of 20 this season. They go into Edmonton off back to back losses to take on an Edmonton team that has been struggling of late. The Oilers are 4-10 off a division game and have dropped 30 of their last 35 games in January the past few seasons. When playing off loss of 2 or more goals the Oilers are 21-63 They have lost 73 of their last 203 games vs winning teams as well. Look for San Jose to emerge with a win. For the free play take the San Jose Sharks.

Bryan Power

Washington @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia -13.5

The Washington Wizards are an embarrassment to the game of basketball. Sunday's 100-94 home loss to the Celtics dropped the Wiz to 2-14 for the year and now they hit the road to play a Sixers team that has already beaten them twice by double digits, including a 31-point victory here in the City of Brotherly Love not more than 10 days ago. The 76ers are off a humbling road loss to the Miami Heat on Saturday, falling 112-93. Expect them to come out angry, particularly here at home where they've dominated the competition thus far, winning by an average margin of 18.5 PPG. Washington is 0-6 SU in road games, averaging just over 82 points/game & looking back further is 14-33 ATS L47 road games overall. Philly has already developed a strong reputation when laying points, going 11-2 ATS in the favorite role this season.

Sean Murphy

San Jose Sharks @ Edmonton Oilers
PICK: San Jose Sharks

San Jose has dropped its last two games, and three of its last four overall, but I see this as an ideal spot for a solid bounce-back performance.

It's not as if the Sharks have been getting beat by pushovers. Their last three losses have come against the Blackhawks, Senators, and Canucks, all playoff bound teams as of now.

Tonight, the Sharks will step down in class against the reeling Oilers. Edmonton has lost three games in a row, and eight of its last nine overall. In fact, the Oilers have posted only five wins dating all the way back to November 26th.

Edmonton's offensive futility has been staggering. The Oilers have scored a grand total of seven goals in regulation time in their last seven contests. Now they run into a Sharks squad that has been awfully stingy on the road, giving up just 2.15 goals per game.

San Jose has absolutely owned this series lately, taking 10 of the last 12 meetings. That includes a 3-2 win on home ice back on December 17th, a game that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated, as the Sharks carried the play, outshooting the Oilers 28-16 over the final two periods.

We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the seemingly struggling Sharks in this spot, but I believe it's warranted. Maybe there's nowhere to go but up for the Oilers, but I'm not convinced they've hit rock bottom just yet.

Ben Burns

Winnipeg @ Carolina
PICK: Under 5.5

These teams have met three times already this season. Both meetings at Winnipeg were high-scoring. They finished with scores of 5-3 and 4-2. However, the game here at Raleigh was lower-scoring. It finished with a score of 3-1. With tonight's game also being played at Raleigh and given the way the Canes have played recently, I won't be surprised if this was is also relatively low-scoring.

Carolina checks in off a 2-1 loss, at Long Island. Prior to that, in their most recent home game, the Canes beat Washington by a score of 3-0. The Canes' previous two games both also resulted in 2-1 losses. That brings the 'under' to 4-0 their last four games. In fact, they've now allowed two or fewer goals in seven straight games.

The Jets are off a 4-3 home loss last time out. However, nine of their previous 12 games had fallen below the total. Perhaps more importantly, the Jets have shown a tendency to follow up a poor defensive effort with a better one. That's led to the "under" going a lucrative 13-5, after they allowed four or more goals in their previous game.

With the "under" also at 14-6-1 when the Jets faced a team with a losing record, consider a play on the UNDER 5.5 goals.

Jim Feist

James Madison vs Georgia State
Pick: Georgia State

Difficult to believe we are already about 3/4 of the way through the regular season of college hoops. But one thing has become evident, James Madison is not a good team for bettors. JM is 9-10 SU on the season, but just 6-11 ATS and on the road, how about a terrible 1-6 ATS. In CAA Conference play, the Dukes are 2-6 SU and ATS. In their last nine games with posted lines, JM has covered the spread just one time. Meanwhile, Georgia State is having a very good season, going 13-6 SU and 9-6 ATS. Still, GS will need these soft targets like James Madison in order to move up in the conference standings. The Panthers are 5-3 in the CAA, fifth in the conference. The Panthers had been very good at covering spread until recently. GS is on a 0-3 spread run their last three games. Before that State had run off nine straight covers. GS is glad to return home where they have won nine straight games. The Panthers are playing great defense, holding their CAA opponents to just 54 ppg and 39% shooting. The Panthers defense ranks 9th nationally. This Georgia State team will have to lay substantial points here on Monday, but that should be no problem as their nationally ranked defense should hold a poor James Madison team down. I'll lay the points here on Monday with Georgia State.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia 76ers -13.5

The Sixers beat these Wizards by 13 points in Washington just nine days ago and I expect Philly to win big in this rematch. Washington has been playing better as they knocked off the Thunder two games ago and have close losses to the Nuggets and Celtics in their last two games, but that was at home. Road games have been a nightmare for the Wizards for the last couple of seasons and this year has been no different. The Wizards are 0-6 straight up and against the spread in their six road games this year. Philadelphia has been tough at home and have already held four opponents to 79 points or less with their suffocating defense. Look for more of the same here. Lay the points.

Scott Rickenbach

Houston @ Minnesota
PICK: Houston +2.5

The Houston Rockets have won six straight games. But has anyone noticed? The Rockets, one of the least interesting teams in the NBA, have jumped into the mix in the Western Conference with this recent winning streak, going 4-2 ATS in that span. Houston holds a true edge on their trip to Minnesota Monday, with first-year head coach Kevin McHale knowing the Timberwolves inside and out after serving as the franchise’s GM from 2005 to 2009. To say the Rockets will have some inside information is an understatement. The Rockets may not even need to pick their coach’s brain the way they’re filling up the basket. Despite the lack of a true go-to scorer, Houston ranks seventh in the NBA in scoring and has topped the century mark four times during those six wins. Minnesota is back home after two road games, losing to Utah 108-98 Saturday. The Timberwolves have a slew of injuries on the perimeter and that thin roster is playing its third game in four nights. The Rockets have been the smart play in recent meetings, going 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 encounters, including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in Minnesota. Consider a small play on Houston plus the points Monday.

FREE NCAAB Play for 1/23: Old Dominion -7.5 (-105, 5Dimes) over Northeastern. The Monarchs are showing excellent value coming off a road loss to conference rival VCU. Note that they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven such situations. Old Dominion had won four straight before losing to VCU, and will be aiming to right the ship with a vengance at home tonight. Including that loss, the Monarchs have been solid statistically over their last five games, averaging 66.2 points/game on 45.1 FG% while holding opponents to only 53.4 points/game on a dismal 36.1 FG% avg. Tonight they will host a Northeastern squad that they have beaten in 3 of the last 4 meetings (both SU and ATS), and is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. Northwestern is coming off 53-71 loss to Drexel. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, and 0-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season. Take the home court advantage, Old Dominion -7.5. *Our Free Plays are now 147-80-1. Sign up today to receive all of our Free Picks via email.* Thank you, and good luck.

Larry Ness

Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara
Pick: Santa Clara

It's been an odd season for Loyola Marymount. The Lions opened the year with the 6-8 Viney sidelined with an injured foot. He had averaged 17.2-6.6 and 16.7-7.0 the last two seasons but even without him Marymount began the season with a 69-58 win at UCLA, as 14-point underdogs. Viney would return to the court on December 2 but the Lions promptly lost that home game 69-61 to Columbia (as 7 1/2-point favorites). Viney is averaging 15.9-5.8 since his return, joined in the frontcourt by the 6-7 Hamilton, who averages 13.6 PPG and 4.9 RPG. Sophomore guard Ireland (15.4-3.8- 5.2) has been excellent and DuBois (10.4) has been a solid partner (note: he's questionable here, suffering from concussion). Egbeyemi (5.2-4.2) is also a solid contributor in the backcourt plus a pair of 6-5 swingman have been good perimeter contributors as well, Armstead (8.9) and freshman Blackwell (7.8-3.9). Now here's the rub. The lions are tough to figure. They are 11-8 overall, including 6-2 on the road. However, this team has thrown in a number of 'clunkers,' losing at home to North Texas (as 11 1/2-point favorites) and Middle Tenn St (as 5 1/2-point favorites), along with that loss to Columbia. Then we have Santa Clara. the Broncos rode a 'hot hand' at the end of last season, to capture the CollegeInsider.com tourney. The team finished with a 24-14 record in head coach's Kerry Keating's fourth season. He had not produced a winning season in any of his first three (41-54 overall) and LY's title run earned him a contract extension. However, before the season even started, the 6-9 Trasolini (13.7-6.1 / 12.8-6.1 the L2 years) was lost to a season-ending knee injury in a September exhibition game. All that said, the Broncos opened 8-4 but the Broncos enter this game on a six-game slide (0-3 on the road & 0-3 at home). This is NOT a deep team and Trasolini is really missed but there is more than just a little talent. Sophomore guard Roquemore has improved on a very good freshman season, running the team and averaging 14.0-3.6-5.3. Once again, shooting guard Foster is leading the team in scoring at 17.8-3.1-3.2 (down slightly from LY's 20.2 average). Freshman guard Clark (6.3) has been solid and three frontcourt players are trying to make Trasolini's absence less painful. The 6-7 Harrison (10.9-6.4), small forward Cowels III (8.9-3.7) and the 6-9 McArthur (6.2-4.5) make up that trio. Santa Clara beat Marymount all three times last year and I look for them to end their six-game losing streak in this one. Take the home team.

SPORTS WAGERS

Columbus +210 over NASHVILLE

In an 82-game schedule, there are going to be many games where emotion will emerge over talent. This one sets up that way. The Predators are rolling along with seven wins in their past eight games, now sitting eight games above .500. Nashville just returned home from a three-game trip on Saturday and promptly beat the league-leading and one of its biggest rivals, the Chicago Blackhawks, 5-2. They embark on another three game trip beginning tomorrow in Chicago, making this one a sandwich between two, three-game trips with a pair against the Blackhawks. With Pekka Rinne carrying the league's biggest workload among goaltenders, there's a good chance Barry Trotz will give Rinne the day off here in favor of Anders Lindback. Nashville just went into Columbus during that recent three-game trip and beat them 3-0. The Blue Jackets outshot the Preds 38-25 and a similar effort here could certainly get us to the cashier's booth. Price and situation dictates strong underdog possibility. Play: Columbus +210 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +120 over TORONTO

In a huge game this past Saturday, with a chance to pick up two vital points, the hated and troubled Canadiens rolled into Toronto to play its third game in four days. The favored Maple Leafs were dreadful and fell to Montreal 3-1. It was without question, the worse loss of the year for the Buds. It's one thing to play hard and get stonewalled by a hot goaltender but that wasn't the case. The Leafs, having missed the playoffs for nine straight years and fighting for a spot this year, came up lame. In terms of excuses, there are none. Now the Islanders roll into town, playing some outstanding hockey. New York has won three straight over Washington, Philly and Carolina and outscored that trio 9-2 with the first two coming on the road. John Tavares is smokin' hot with a 12-game points streak (eight goals, 13 assists), which is the longest streak in the NHL this season. The Islanders are having fun again and they're playing loose with great results. Conversely, the Maple Leafs are feeling pressure and folding under it, just like they do every year.. Play: N.Y. Islanders +120 (Risking 2 units).

CAROLINA -½ +137 over Winnipeg

No doubt the Winnipeg Jets deserved a better fate on Saturday night against Florida. They outhit, outchanced, outworked and outshot the Panthers but lost in OT, 4-3. That was a big loss because the Jets had a chance to leapfrog past the Panthers into the final playoff spot in the conference. Now they'll take to the road where they're just not the same team as they are at home. Winnipeg has just seven road wins in 23 games and things don't figure to get easier here. The Hurricanes last four home games have come against Washington, Boston, Philly and Buffalo. Their only loss in that set was a 2-1 defeat to the Flyers. The 'Canes have picked up points in four of six games and that also includes a 2-1 OT loss in Pittsburgh and a 2-1 OT loss on the Island. Carolina is in better form than the Jets and they have a huge edge in net with Cam Ward over either one of the Jets’ netminders Play: Carolina -½ +137 (Risking 2 units).

Tony Stoffo

Magic vs. Celtics
Play: Under 178.5

NBA Free Play - Orlando at Boston Our Free play of the day is on the Under as the Celtics and Magic match-up - as the sharps and trends all point toward a lower scoring game here. Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Under is 25-10 in Magic last 35 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 overall. Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

Houston has won 6 in a row, but only 1 of those wins came on the road - a 114-106 victory over the 2-14 Washington Wizards. Overall, the Rockets are just 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this season. Expect Houston's road struggles to continue this evening against an improved Minnesota squad. The Timberwolves have been in just about every game this season. They're 7-9 with 5 of their defeats coming by 4 points or less. Minnesota's solid play has led to a 10-6 ATS mark. The Rockets are a lousy 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Plus, the fact Minnesota enter off a loss bodes well for us considering it is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games following defeat. Lastly, the favorite is 14-2-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. We'll lay the points.