Derek Mancini
For tonight's Freebie, I'm siding with Georgia State as they host James Madison. May seem like a lot of points to lay, but that's the oddsmakers attempt at enticing you play the Dukes. Don't fall for it. Lay the points with the Panthers, as they return home off consecutive losses and take the Dukes behind the wood shed in this one.
So why Georgia State here? Well besides the fact they're happy to be back home, where they're 9-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, the Panthers enjoy an incredibly strong edge in both defense and rebounding. Georgia St allows just 49 ppg on 33% shooting at the GSU Sports Arena this season, and while we normally would be laying a lot more than this with them at home, the fact they've lost 3 straight ATS had helped taper down the expectations and increase the value. There's also no question the Panthers will dominate the glass tonight, as Buckner, Micheaux, and McGee have all been rebounding the ball extremely well of late and should continue to do so against a short-handed James Madison frontline.
Finally, the Dukes have been burning their backers all season, going 1-8 ATS over their L9 overall... What makes you think that changes tonight? Guys, the line may see rather hefty, but again, I believe that's the oddsmakers trying desperately to get you to look James Madison's way. The Dukes are overmatched in almost every category here and I fully expect the Panthers to drop the hammer on them Monday night. Lay it with Georgia State over James Madison Monday.
3♦ GEORGIA STATE
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Monday night is out of the NBA, as I take a look at the small favorite visiting the Milwaukee Bucks, that being the Atlanta Hawks. If I were to tell you there's a two-way tie in the Southeast Divsion of the NBA standings, you'd likely tell me it's between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat.
Not.
The Hawks and Orlando are tied for first place, and with the Magic in Beantown for a clash with the Boston Celtics, the Hawks have a chance to take over sole possession of first for a second time this season.
I know the Hawks have struggled early on this season, with a suitcase in hand. But this might be a good spot to start a winning run on the highway, as the Bucks come in with a 6-9 mark on the season, while they're also coming in after winning on the road for the first time this season with a weeken sweep of the Knicks and Miami. The Bucks were 0-8 on the road, but knocked off New York, 100-86 on Friday, and the preseason-favored Heat, 91-82, yesterday.
Now they come home for a brutal sandwich game before heading back out on the road for games in Houston and Chicago, on Wednesday and Friday.
Though coach Larry Drew's troops have averaged 80.0 points while losing their last two games away from Atlanta, I know the Hawks are a much better team and they'll be looking to start this five-game road trip off with a blowout win. On deck is San Antonio, and then easier games against Detroit, New Orleans and Toronto after that.
And to be honest, the Hawks could reel off five straight on the highway, but they need to win this game big. Think about it, a blowout win heading into the Alamo City could provide the right spark to upset the Spurs. But a loss tonight, and they head to San Antonio on a bad note, and could leave there for Motown on a two-game slide.
These two teams split their four meetings last season, and each team did win once on the road. And while the Bucks are mired in a 3-14 spread slide on Monday nights, the Hawks come into the Bradley Center on ATS streaks of 4-2 in this series, 5-2 as a road favorite and 4-1 when laying points in this range. Also, Milwaukee has failed to cover six straight games on the second of back-to-back nights.
Lay the road chalk.
4♦ ATLANTA HAWKS
Matt Rivers
Monday's free play comes in the NBA, as I back the 76ers to do the damage one more time to the Washington Wizards.
Philadelphia has already swept a home-and-home from Washington this season, as the 76ers have run their series win and cover streak versus the Wizards to four in a row dating back to last year.
Washington is just 2-14 straight up this campaign, and the points have not been of much help to them either, as they are just 1-5 against the spread away from home this year.
Philly sports a 7-1 mark both straight up and against the spread at home this season, and after losing in Miami over the weekend, the Sixers should be ready to take things out on the lowly Wizards.
Sure laying double-digits in the NBA is a little dicey, but with the way Philadelphia has been handling their business at home this year, and the way the Wizards are playing the part of door-mat, only one choice tonight, and that is to lay the wood with Philly.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA