Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 24, 2011

Cajun Sports

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Selection: Houston Rockets -2.5

The Rockets are currently riding a two-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread but the trip to Minnesota should be just what the doctor ordered to get them back in the winners column. The Rockets are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 versus the Timberwolves. Houston is 74-48 ATS in road games off a home loss and 31-17 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread the last 3 seasons. The Rockets are 53-25 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games and 19-7 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in two straight games. Minnesota is in the midst of a losing streak having dropped their last three contests straight up and against the number. The Timberwolves are 58-83-2 ATS at home including 39-61-1 when installed as a home underdog. Minnesota is 7-18 ATS in home games after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points and 8-19 ATS in home games after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more the last 3 seasons. The Timberwolves struggle in this particular situation going 0-7 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss this season. A check of the database reveals a powerful league-wide system that tells us to Play ON NBA favorites with a team scoring 103 or more points per game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. These favorites are 48-19 ATS the last five seasons. We will lay the short number here as history repeats itself and Houston gets the check both straight up and against the spread.

Tom Freese

Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

Milwaukee is 16-25 straight this year. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games as road underdogs. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS their last 6 Monday games. Milwaukee is 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 games overall. Milwaukee is 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 games following a straight up win. Chicago is 30-14 straight up this year. The Bulls are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 Monday games. The Bulls are 16-6 ATS their last 22 games when playing with one day of rest. Chicago is 4-1 ATS their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games vs. the Bucks.

Scott Spreitzer

NC Wilimington at Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion

NC-Wilmington has improved under new coach Buzz Peterson, who had success at Appalachian State, Tulsa, Tennessee and Coastal Carolina. The Seahawks are 10-9 but just 2-7 on the road where they have beaten only George Washington and William & Mary. Wilmington has lost the last three meetings with Old Dominion by an average of 22 points. The Seahawks are coming off a 66-60 win over lowly Towson despite shooting only 41.1 percent. They won by making 18-of-22 free throws. Senior point guard Chad Tomko scores 16.1 points and grabs 5.3 rebounds per game. Sophomore forward Keith Rendleman averages 10.8 points and 7.9 boards. The top five scorers for the Seahawks are guards. Old Dominion is 14-5 and coming off just its second home loss, 59-50, against Virginia Commonwealth while shooting only 39.2 percent. The Monarchs' only other losses were at Georgetown and against Delaware, Missouri and Drexel. Frank Hassell leads the team with 12.7 points, 9.3 rebounds with a .537 field goal percentage and Kent Bazemore averages 11.9 points. The Monarchs are holding opponents to 40.7 from the field and outrebounding them by more than 11 per game. The Monarchs have been a soid money-maker following a conference loss, going 10-2 ATS the next time out. I'll back Old Dominion to bounce back from Saturday's loss with another dominating win and cover over the Seahawks.

Marc Lawrence

Baylor @ Kansas State
PICK: Baylor

The Bears meet the Wildcats in Manhattan in a Big 12 battle tonight with Baylor keen on avenging a conference tourney loss they suffered last year against Kansas State. Aside for having cashed in six of the last seven games on this floor, the Bears are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in games off a win versus an opponent off a loss when playing with conference tourney revenge. With KSU 1-4 SU and ATS in Big 12 play this season and 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games against opponents off a win, look for the Bears to get their revenge here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baylor.

JIM FEIST

WASHINGTON WIZARDS / NEW YORK KNICKS
TAKE: NEW YORK KNICKS

The Wizards have been a team that I have looked to play against on the road for most of the season. With the exception of the Cavs, there might not be a poorer road team than Washington. The Wizards are 0-20 SU and and 5-15 ATS this season. There have been trade rumors floating around the Knicks locker room involving Carmello Anthony, but even with that distraction, the Knicks should have little trouble handling this Washington club on Monday. These teams met at the Garden back in November and the Knicks easily put the visitors away with a 112-91 win. The Wizards are coming off a huge home win over Boston on Friday, 85-83. In fact it was the team's third win in five games, all at home. When they traveled to Milwaukee, same old story, a 13 point loss to the Bucks. You can find some value with the Wizards when they play at home, but stay away from them like the plague when they are on the road. I'm taking the Knicks no matter how many points they have to lay tonight.

Brent Brooks

Pittsburgh -10.5

Notre Dame is very clearly a team that relies on their home floor far too much. In their recent game against Marquette, you had the feeling that if the second half had been played anywhere else - they lose. Here they are entering a hornet's nest. Pitt wins by 15+.

Furman +6

The Paladins are having a special season. For a team that is normally an middle to lower tier in the SoCo, they stand at 6-2 and can draw even with Wofford with a road win. Saaka vs Dahlman - if you love the smaller conferences and get a chance to watch this one, its going to be a good one. I like the points here as this game has close finish written all over it. Backing Furman here as a 1* Freebie.

SPORTS WAGERS

William & Mary +5½ over NORTHEASTERN

Northeastern is winless in eight conference games, they’re 4-15 overall and they’ve now lost nine straight overall. Losing is contagious and it takes its toll big time, especially on young players that are losing confidence with each passing half. The Tribe of William & Mary are only 2-6 in the conference unlike the Huskies, they’re gaining confidence. W&M are coming off back-to-back strong performances. They whacked Towson on Wednesday by 25 and followed that up with a narrow three-point loss to 7-1 Hofstra. Freshman Julian Boatner is a great shooter that is just getting better with each game. Earlier in the year he raised some eyebrows when he sank a trio of three-pointers against nationally-ranked Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. He was 6 of 7 from beyond the arc against Towson and he’s becoming a factor every game. The Tribe is getting balanced scoring, they’re gaining confidence and they absolutely have a great shot to not only cover but to win outright in what figures to be a low scoring affair. Play: William & Mary +5½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Nashville +114 over CALGARY

Give the Flames some credit for putting together a bit of a run that has seen them pick up points in seven of their last eight games. Five of those games went into OT, one was a 6-0 loss to the Wild, one was a 7-4 win over Dallas in which they scored those seven goals on 19 shots and the other was a 3-2 win in Ottawa in which they were clearly outplayed. This year’s edition of the Flames scares nobody. They’re not that physical, they don’t have a lot of offense, their goaltending is inconsistent at best and their chances of making the playoffs are close to zero. The Preds are very physical with a great defense, rock solid goaltending and one of the best records in the league. Quietly, they just keep winning. They played last night in Edmonton but so what. The last time they made a short trip in the tail end of back-to-backs was on Jan 5th and 6th when they played Anaheim and Los Angeles and won them both, 4-1 and 5-2 respectively. Calgary is coming off a big win in Vancouver and they’re just not good enough to sustain the run that they’re on. The Flames are a huge risk as a favorite and you can double that against this very sound and so tough to beat Predator squad. Play: Nashville +114 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +104 over LOS ANGELES

Not interested in a Kings club that has trouble both scoring goals and winning games consistently. The last time L.A. strung together consecutive wins was way back in Dec 26-27, a stretch covering 13 games. Since then the Kings have three wins in those 13 games and over their last six games they’ve been held to one goal or less four times. The Kings also have one win over their last 13 games against teams over .500. Boston is the toughest road team in the league and right now they’re playing its best hockey of the year. The B’s have won six of their last eight games and in half of those they score six times or more. They have a big edge in net with either Tukka Rask or Tim Thomas against wildly inconsistent Jonathan Quick. These two met back in Boston on Nov. 26 th with the Kings winning 4-3 in extra time. The Bruins dominated that game from start to finish and they’re very likely going to get some redemption here. Play Boston +104 (Risking 2 units).

VEGAS EXPERTS

Memphis at Toronto
Play on: Memphis

Nice short number to lay with the visiting Grizzlies here as we find them a perfect 8-0 ATS off a SU dog win this season + 7-0 ATS off a road win. Memphis beat Toronto at home back on 12.27, 96-85 as 6.5-point chalk, and we find the Raptors at a very poor 11-27 ATS in same season revenge situations. Lay the points.

Frank Jordan

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -8

Milwaukee is tied for second in the central division behind the Bulls but a solid 12.5 games back as they are under .500 at 16-25. Milwaukee on the road is not good at 7-10 and of late they are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, but on a bright note are 3-3 in the division. Chicago is in first place with a 30-14 record, has the second best home record in the East at 20-4 and is a perfect 9-0 in the division. Look for the Bulls to make it an even 10-0 on the year within the division as the blow away the Bucks. Play Chicago

Rocketman

Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -8

Washington comes in with a 13-29 overall record this year while New York is now 22-21 overall this season. Washington is 0-20 SU and 5-15 ATS on the road this season. Washington is 7-28 ATS last 3 years and 0-5 ATS this year after an upset win as an underdog. Washington is allowing 108.3 points per game on the road this season. New York is 8-2 SU and ATS overall vs Washington the past 3 years including 5-0 SU and ATS at home vs Washington over the past 3 seasons. We'll recommend a small play on New York tonight!

Craig Trapp

Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Notre Dame +11

Really high spread considering ND beat PITT both games played last year. Irish are not a great road team but they will keep it within this number. PITT is so physical but the Irish are a very smart team that won't allow this game to get into a strength matchup. Irish shoot the ball well from outside and the three point shot will keep this one well under this number.

LT Profits

Montana State at Idaho State
Play: Montana State -2½

The Montana State Bobcats are off to a 5-2 start in Big Sky Conference play, and we feel they should be able to take advantage of an Idaho State Bengals team in this NCAA Basketball matchup that is one of the very worst in the nation.

Idaho State is 5-13 straight up this season with two of their wins coning in non-lined games and none of the other three wins coming vs. teams ranking higher than 272nd on the Pomeroy Ratings. Yes, they are 4-2 straight up at home, but they are 0-3 against the NCAA Basketball odds in those contests.

The Bengals rank 275th in the country in offensive efficiency and 277th in defensive efficiency, and their offense ranks 303rd in effective field goal percentage at a miserable 45.0 percent while their defense ranks 306th in effective field goal percentage against at a whopping 52.7 percent. Throw in the fact that Idaho State is also a poor rebounding team, and it is no surprise that they have been struggling in NCAA Basketball betting.

Montana State is 11-8 straight up overall, and while we get that they are only 1-8 ob the road, that win did come vs. probably the worst team they have faced to this point in the Sacramento State Hornets, and this Idaho State team they are facing tonight grades out worse. The Bobcats are above average in offensive efficiency at 1.02 points per possession and they are a good three-point shooting team at 35.6 percent.

Look for Montana State to score enough points to get the road cover on the NCAA Basketball batting odds in this spot.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +8

The Bulls are coming off back-to-back wins, which means it's time to fade away. Consider that Chicago is 9-21 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons, only winning in this situation by an average of 2.0 points. We also can't ignore how tough the Bucks have played the Bulls in recent meetings. Behind one strong defensive effort after another, Milwaukee has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. It has either won or played Chicago to a 2-point game in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Motivated by a 13-point loss at Chicago last month, I expect the Bucks to be ready to take the Bulls down to the wire tonight. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing with 1 day of rest. Bet the Bucks.