Chuck O'Brien
Detroit at ORLANDO (-12)
For Monday’s complimentary selection in the NBA, take the Magic as big home favorite as they host Detroit.
Playing the percentages here, as Orlando owns one of the NBA’s best home records (17-5) – only Boston, Chicago and San Antonio are better – while the Pistons are just 4-19 on the road. Since Christmas, Detroit is 1-7 on the highway, and four of those defeats were by margins of 15 (New Jersey), 13 (Chicago), 25 (Lakers), 17 (Phoenix).
On the flip side, the Magic have won eight in a row at Amway Arena, cashing in six of those contests courtesy of blowout wins over Toronto (112-72), Houston (110-95), Golden State (110-90), New York (112-103), Boston (86-78) and San Antonio (123-101). And that doesn’t even include a 97-87 victory over Milwaukee (Orlando failed to cash as a 12-point chalk in that one).
The Magic have won the last five meetings with Detroit (going 3-1 ATS in the last four), including two blowout wins this year by scores of 90-79 and 104-91. And while the underdog (8-3 ATS last 11) and visitor (4-1 ATS last five) have been profitable in this rivalry lately, those numbers don’t exactly trump Orlando’s spread-covering hot streaks of 6-2 at home, 11-4 as a favorite, 14-5 when laying 11 points or more, 12-5 against the Central Division, 9-4-1 on Monday and 9-2-1 after a SU victory (Orlando pounded Houston 118-104 on the road Saturday).
Toss in the fact that the Magic have scored 106 points or more in seven of their last nine games while Detroit has put up 75, 74 and 82 in its last three, and The Chuckster calls this one 105-85 in favor of the home team.
3♦ ORLANDO
Derek Mancini
Detroit (+12) at ORLANDO
There's no question the Magic are kicking ass and taking names over their current win streak. There's also no question they've owned this series of late, and dominated them without three of their best on the court in their last meeting. Throw in the fact the Pistons will likely be without Villanueva and Hamilton and this game look like a gimme. Sorry Magic-backers, nothing is ever that easy in betting the NBA.
So how can the Pistons possibly slowdown the red-hot Magic. Of course, it's easier said than done, but they've been playing some excellent defense of late, limiting their L4 opponents to 89 points or fewer. That includes shutting down a very good Suns offense (74 points on 40.5% shooting) in their last one. I'm not saying anything about them winning outright, but given so many points, I believe the Pistons defense can and will keep them close enough to cover.
For as bad as the Pistons have been this season, they got thoroughly embarassed by the Magic the last time they played, and I believe that'll play a major part in tonight's contest. Revenge is rare in the NBA, but everyone can remember the Magic without Howard, Nelson, or Reddick easily beating the Pistons at the Palace back in December. Wouldn't be totally surpised if the Magic got caught overlooking the Pistons based on that December win as well.
Finally, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in their L11 meetings, and based on the perception and the line, I'd say this is a solid spot to play the Pistons. A huge majority of the public is on the Magic here (close to 90%) and the oddsmakers know it. I still expect the Magic to win comfortably, but covering the number is entirely different story. Take Detroit plus the points over Orlando Monday.
2♦ DETROIT
Bobby Maxwell
Phoenix at PHILADELPHIA (-4)
For my comp selection, these two teams met a little less than a month ago when Philadelphia went into Phoenix and scored the 123-110 victory as 5 ½-point underdogs. The way the Sixers play at home, I’m expecting the same type of performance in this one. Lay the points and go with Philadelphia.
The Sixers just beat Utah at home on Saturday, scoring the 96-85 win as a two-point favorite. They have cashed in each of their last three games and at home they are 13-7 ATS this season. And give this team one day off and they are really tough against the number at 12-2-1 ATS after one day of rest.
In this series, the favorite has cashed in 14 of the last 17 overall and Philadelphia bring in several ATS surges, including 15-6-1 against Western Conference teams, 7-3 as a favorite, 11-4 at home, 14-5 after a spread-cover and 4-1 as a chalk of up to 4 ½ points.
The Suns are on ATS skids of 3-9-2 after a non-cover and 3-8-1 after a straight-up loss. They come in off a Saturday loss in Detroit, losing 75-74 as a 1 ½-point favorite. This team is wrapping up a five-game East Coast road trip today before going home to take on Charlotte on Wednesday.
Play Philadelphia at home tonight as they are tough in front of the home crowd. Lay the points and go with the Sixers.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Houston (-2') at MINNESOTA
As for your Monday night comp play, all about the Houston Rockets to roll over a Minnesota Timberwolves team that has lost 3 straight, and 8 of their last 9 games.
This has been a very good matchup for Houston of late, winning the last 10 meetings while going 8-1-1 against the spread in those 10. The favorite is also on a 12-3-1 spread run the last 16 times the teams have squared off.
Houston had a modest 3 game winning streak going, but they have lost their last pair of games as they come into the Twin Cities this Monday night.
Nothing like knowing you are playing a team you absolutely own.
Go ahead and lay the small road wood with the Rockets tonight.
3♦ HOUSTON
Stephen Nover
Houston (-2') at MINNESOTA
The price is right to lay with Houston, a superior team to Minnesota.
The Timberwolves rank last in defense giving up 108.4 points a game and are committing a league-worst 17.1 turnovers per game.
The Rockets can take advantage with their fourth-ranked offense that averages 105 points.
Houston is anxious to face Minnesota after being embarrassed at home this past Saturday by Orlando, 118-104.
The Rockets play the Timberwolves with a lot of confidence as well as they should having won the past 12 meetings by an average of 15.7 points.
Minnesota has injuries in its frontcourt. Starting center Darko Milicic, who had been playing much better this season, is limited by a sprained ankle. His backup, Nikola Pekovic, has been fighting flu-like symptoms.
The Timberwolves' weak backcourt isn't helped either with point guard Luke Ridnour, their best ball distributor, dealing with a strained hamstring.
Minnesota is playing poorly once again having lost eight of its past nine going 3-6 ATS during this span.
2♦ HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Notre Dame at PITTSBURGH (-11)
Today's free play is on the Pittsburgh Panthers to crush Notre Dame.
Honestly, I don't have a lot of fancy analysis for this one. To me, it's pretty cut and dry. Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the country, and according to ESPN's Jay Williams they are the best team in the country... even better than Ohio State.
That's tough to argue. It's still early in the season, but the Panthers have only had one slip up... a game they just didn't play well and eventually fell to Tennessee.
Yes, it was a bad loss to an average team, but at the time the Vols were ranked in the top 20.
The Panthers have won nine straight games since that loss to Tennessee, winning by an average of over 15 PPG at home. They are also a perfect 13-0 at the Peterson Events Center this season.
As for Notre Dame, well, we've seen how poorly they play on the road, dropping consecutive road games to St. Johns (by 18) and to Marquette (by 22). Ironically, the Irish just beat Marquette over the weekend (at home) by five.
There are a lot of teams in college hoops that play better at home than on the road, but I'm not sure there are many teams that play as well as Notre Dame at home and as poorly as they do on the road.
Notre Dame doesn't just lose on the road, they get demolished. They will again tonight.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Michael Cannon
Notre Dame at PITT (-11)
At first glance this would appear to be a juicy opportunity to take a bunch of points with a more than capable Fighting Irish squad. But there’s a reason this line is where it’s at.
Pitt is that good and Notre Dame doesn’t play all that well on the road.
The Panthers are more athletic, deeper and better defensively than the Irish. Jamie Dixon has the ability to roll out 10 and sometimes 11 players, which keeps everyone fresh and it allows Pitt to play so aggressively on the defensive end.
Pitt also leads the nation in rebounding margin, which benefits them two different ways. It allows them to get second-chance points and keeps the opposition at one-and-done on the other end.
Lay the points with Pitt for the home win and cover.
3♦ PITT
Joel Tyson
George Mason at DELAWARE (+7)
The Patriots are feeling good about themselves right now, as they sport a 4 game win and cover streak coming into tonight's action, but George Mason has been a money-burner in this series.
Yes, the Pats have won the last 3 against the Blue Hens straight up, but they are on a 2 game spread slide, and just 1-5-1 the last 7 times these conference rivals have met.
Delaware is a decent 5-1 straight up at home, and the only other time this season they were installed as underdogs they won outright against Old Dominion.
Maybe not an outright upset here, but I like the Blue Hens plus the points to give Mason a scare tonight.
Delaware the play.
3♦ DELAWARE
Scott Delaney
George Mason at DELAWARE (+7)
I know George Mason is in on a four-game win streak, and I know it is traditionally a better team than the Blue Hens.
But the third-place Patriots haven't seemed to stop going and going, and I have a feeling will be tired tonight when visiting Delaware.
George Mason played late Wednesday at home, then early Saturday at James Madison and now have a late start tonight against the Blue Hens, thanks to television commitments.
So to lay this many points against a Delaware team that is just behind the Patriots in the standings seems a bit much to ask.
The Hens are 5-1 in Newark, and have already defeated Colonial Athletic Association favorite Old Dominion.
I know the Patriots are the league's best shooters (48.4 percent), but the Hens are stifling foes to a CAA-low 40.7 percent.
And make note this is a revenge game for the Hens, who lost at George Mason, 75-66, earlier this month.
Give me the eight points, as I suspect we're in for a dandy.
2♦ DELAWARE
Chris Jordan
Furman at WOFFORD (-6)
Wofford is in after back-to-back blowout wins - 88-56 against North Division leader Chattanooga and 81-43 against Samford - and should be fired up for this game on Big Monday against league-rival Furman.
Preseason predictions had Furman finishing dead last in the division, while the Terriers were picked to win it.
And why not, they're experienced, came into this season with four starters back from their appearance in last March's madness, they have plenty of depth and are well-coached by ninth-year guy Mike Young.
The Paladins, on the other hand, have surprised some folks, going 14-5 overall with a 6-2 league mark. But I don't think they're going to be ready for this one. I know everyone likes to talk about the win over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks were on a tough road trip that started with Ohio State, and Furman was simply in the right spot.
Wofford has won four straight against Furman and nothing should change tonight.
3♦ WOFFORD
Jeff Benton
Now onto Monday’s NBA freebie, as we’ll lay the small chalk with the 76ers as they host Phoenix.
I’ll be honest with you: More than anything else, we’re playing the situation here. By that I mean the Suns are concluding five-game, seven-day road trip in Philly tonight, and while the first three games when their way (outright wins and spread-covers over the Knicks, Cavaliers and Wizards – part of a 5-0 SU and ATS run), Phoenix finally hit a wall at Detroit on Saturday, losing 75-74 to the Pistons as a 1½-point road chalk.
How much of an aberration was that game? The Suns average 106 ppg on the season and during their five-game SU and ATS winning streak against New Jersey, Portland, New York, Cleveland and Washington, they put up 118 (overtime), 115, 129, 106 and 109 points. And then all of a sudden, they dropped to 75 against a Detroit team that’s mediocre at best defensively. Pretty much tells me the Suns have run out of gas on this journey.
As for Philadelphia, it is coming off Saturday’s 96-85 beat-down of the Jazz. The Sixers cashed easily as a two-point chalk in that contest (their third straight spread-cover), but more impressively, they registered their third straight home win. In fact, going back to a 90-79 win over Milwaukee on Nov. 19, the 76ers are on a 12-3 SU roll in their building. The three losses? To the Pacers, Lakers and Celtics.
On top of that, dating to that Nov. 19 victory over the Bucks, Philadelphia is 22-9 ATS! Still not convinced? Well, this should do the trick: The Sixers are on additional ATS runs of 11-4 at home, 4-1 as a short favorite (less than five points) and 15-6-1 against the Western Conference – the latter stat includes a 123-110 win in Phoenix on Dec. 29 as a 5½-point road underdog.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS