DAVE COKIN
GEORGIA SOUTHERN AT APPALACHIAN STATE
PLAY: GEORGIA SOUTHERN +3.5
The records for these two teams won’t show it, but both Georgia Southern and Appalachian State have shown some considerable improvement recently, and this might turn out to be a pretty good under the radar game.
Georgia Southern has split its last four games, and while the Eagles are still a very poor entry when it comes to shooting the basketball, other aspects of their game have gotten much better. Georgia Southern is actually leading the Sun Belt in turnover percentage on both the offensive and defensive ends, and that’s pretty impressive.
Those turnover stats are also the key to this selection. Appalachian State has upped its performance level just like the Eagles since conference play got started. But the one area in which the Mountaineers have had continued issues is in the turnover category. Appalachian State is dead last in the SBC in turnover percentage, and just as with Georgia Southern, that’s on both offense and defense.
This is pretty compelling stuff for me. I really like it when I can find an underdog with its strongest aspect also happening to be the weakest link for the favorite, and that’s what I will get here with Georgia Southern.
Additionally, it’s not a bad situational fade for Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are off back to back outright underdog wins against Arkansas State and Georgia State. Now they’re laying points, and that’s certainly an unfamiliar role for the Mountaineers. In fact, they’ve been chalk just twice all season and Appalachian State lost each of those game straight up.
The downside here is that Georgia Southern shoots bricks with the worst of them, and the lack of accuracy is simply always going to be a concern. But with a number of categorical edges in head to head comparisons, including the aforementioned turnover stats, I’m seeing the Eagles as a very live dog tonight. I’ll take the available points with Georgia Southern.
Sleepyj
Miami -140
Duke is short on talent and depth right now..As the season gets older, the Blue Devils will get better...Right now they have some issues on both sides of the ball...Big key factor for me is the absence of 6' 9 Senior F Amile Jefferson....Duke has lost 4 games with him off the court in the last 11 games...This is a back to back road game here for the Dukies tonight also...They are coming off a win Vs. NC St in a game they looked over matched for a long portion of the first half half..Duke fought back and showed some heart in that game..I doubt that gets them through this one tonight though...Miami at home is a tough out no matter what..The experience they bring to the court is one thing, but the calm approach and pressure given moments is when they shine...They have two guys can rely on in this game tonight...Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez...This is one of the better back courts in all of CBB...We want strong guard play here at home tonight..We get it with the Hurricanes here..I'm not sold on Duke right now, but i like the Hurricanes overall...They showed some grit and heart as well in the last game..A true look ahead spot coming off a win with Duke on deck..They performed great in a 14 pt win of the Demon Deacons...I will lay the ML in this game, just because it's Duke and the fact that we have to lay over a basket is always scary in these games..I feel pretty good with Miami, but i want to win this game tonight without any backdoor blunders..Give me the Hurricanes here...ML wagers are not up as of yet, but my guess the -140 range is about the right price here..I will be on this as soon as they drop.
Marc Lawrence
Spurs vs. Warriors
Play: Spurs +5
Edges - Spurs: 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS on Monday this season. Warriors: 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in this series, including 1-4 SUATS as a favorite. With the Warriors 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games, we recommend a 1* play on San Antonio.
Mike Lundin
Pistons vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -121
The Detroit Pistons have only two wins in their last seven games and are off a pair of defeats at New Orleans and Denver. They've won just three of the last 20 matchups with the Utah Jazz but claimed a 92-87 victory back in October. I think that result will work to our advantage here though as the Jazz are 11-5 when revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
Utah is off a dominant 108-86 win at Brooklyn Friday and will enter this contest well rested as Saturday's scheduled game at Washington was postponed due to the blizzards plaguing the East Coast. The Jazz are a solid 5-1 ATS in their last six home games while the Pistons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road. We can also note that Detroit has the worst free throw percentage in the league with just 65.0% while Utah is shooting a respectable 75.7% from the foul line.
Scott Spreitzer
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State
Play: Georgia Southern +3
Neither the Eagles or Mountaineers have set the basketball world on fire on the offensive end this season, but GASO has the advantage with more "outs." App State has one player, Frank Eaves (20.6 ppg) averaging in double-figures per night, while GASO has three players averaging between 16.6 & 12.1 ppg. But the Eagles also have a pair of strong "dishers" in Tookie Brown and Devonte Boykins, who push the tempo and find open looks for their teammates. GASO averages over 75 ppg overall, and they average about 27 3-pointer per game on the road. The good news is that App State is not good on the defensive end, even on their home floor, where their "guests" have made nearly 44% of their 3-point attempts. And while GASO has forced 14 turnovers, allowing just 9 assists per game over their last five outings, the Mountaineers have an upside down 0.80 assist-turnover ratio in their last five games, averaging more than 17 tpg. The Eagles have covered five of the last seven meetings and they're on a 5-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record. Tonight marks just the third time this season App State has been posted as the favorite and they lost the first two outright. In fact, they have lost each of their last three as chalk, going back to February 12 of last season. I expect more of the same.
Art Aronson
Coyotes vs. Wild
Play: Under 5
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
If history is any precedence: Then all signs point to a classic low-scoring battle today, six of these team's last ten in the series have fallen below the posted number, including in Arizona's 2-1 win on December 15th. And note that the Coyotes have seen the total go UNDER the posted number in seven of their last ten overall, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten as well.
ATS statistics: And note that Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of 11 this year following a divisional contest and in six of nine after playing three consecutive home games, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of seven this season after allowing four goals or more and in 14 of 19 vs. teams with losing records.
The bottom line: A history of tight, low-scoring games backed by some extremely strong UNDER trends does indeed make the UNDER worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Frank Jordan
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -13.5
Cleveland is the top team in the East, but that wasn't good enough to have their coach keep his job and prior to their last game hosting Chicago they made a switch. It didn't work as the Bulls won as Cleveland got behind early and couldn't mount a comeback big enough to get back even or ahead. Cleveland is still 7-3 in their last 10 games and 16-3 at home along with a 10-5 record over the West. Minnesota is second to last in the West with a 14-31 record and despite coming off a win they are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Minnesota is 6-13 against the East and 7-14 on the road as they take on the top team in the East. Look for the Cavaliers to come out mad and play with a chip on their shoulder as they play tough, play strong and win big by 15 over the young and over matched as LeBron and company come out and dominate the young Wolves.
Jim Feist
Minnesota at Cleveland
Pick: Under
Most teams get that bump when they change coaches, but that didn't happen for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Tyronn Lue took over the reigns for the Cavs and lost his first game out at home to the struggling Chicago Bulls, 96-83. The Cavs looked very flat in their first game following the firing of David Blatt and never really challenged the Bulls. The 83 points was a season low for the Cavs at the Quicken Loans Arena. One issue with the Cavs is pace, they are ranked near the bottom of the league in possessions per 48 minutes with 94.9. The Cavs have gone under in four of their last six games. Minnesota is one of the lower scoring teams in the NBA, averaging just 99.04 ppg this season. The last 16 times these clubs have met, they have gone UNDER 11 times. In addition, the UNDER is 7-2 the last nine meetings in Cleveland. The Cavs should have a much easier time scoring tonight, but with their slower pace I'm still staying with the UNDER here.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Boston Celtics +2
Boston has covered 16 of 19 in games where the posted total is 210 or more, including 11 of 12 on the road. The Celtics have already beat the Wizards 3 times this season and have won 7 of 10 vs South East Division teams. Washington has failed to cover 6 of 8 off a win of 10 or more, and 7 of 8 vs Atlantic Division teams. Washington also fits a system that plays against home favorites of 4 or less that cashes 83% long term. Play on Boston.
Primetime Insiders
Wisconsin-Green Bay -5.5
A great matchup for this experienced Green Bay squad. They should be able to turn over Detroit and lead to many fast break opportunities. Carrington Love should have a huge day on the defensive end with many thefts. Green Bay attacks the glass and gets a big home win.
Oakland +3
Two prolific offenses the only difference is Oakland's ability to hit the offensive glass. Gibson and Hays should get Oakland many second chance opportunities. Oakland is going to need to limit the 3s to cover and win outright.
Furman -5.5
Furman is young which makes hitting the road always a scary proposition. However they are going up against VMI.. Furman has the size to dominate this matchup against an undersized VMI squad. Rafferty and Acox should dominate the glass. VMI is not going to score. This line is just too short!
Brad Diamond
San Antonio at Golden State
Play: Golden State -4½
Some house cleaning first, Tim Duncan will not play this evening for the Spurs. We note, San Antonio (38-6) is 6-0 SU without him, but that was against units 63-110. SA has won back-to-back games on this road trip vs. the Lakers (108-95) and the Suns (117-89)..both losing teams. They have won 13 straight, lead the SW division by 13-1/2. SA is 7-3 ATS L10, 13-7 ATSR and 30-14 ATS overall. They have covered 4-of-5 at Golden State and come with a unit averaging 104+ points, with the #1 defense (89.8). Warriors (40-4) is averaging 114.7 points, holding the opposition (#2) to 102.6 points per game. The Curry led unit is #1 in the Western Conference, but must play more effective defense keeping forward K. Leonard (20.0) in check to win and cover. On offense, GS will need a huge night from three (42.5) to grab the cover, while not going through defensive lapses on the boards. The Warriors are 26-12 ATS on Monday, 20-7 ATS with 2 days rest, but 1-4 ATS at home last five. Despite the line movement still prefer Golden State who is looking to spring board their control in the West, while generating a "true" overall solid outing in a playoff type setting.
Jimmy Boyd
Wizards -2½
Washington has a major scheduling advantage in this one, as the Wizards have had 4 days off since beating the Heat 106-87 at home. Boston on the other hand will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after Saturday's game against the 76ers got pushed back to Sunday. So while Washington will be playing it's 2nd game in 6 days, the Celtics will be playing their 4th in the same span.
Adding even more value here is the fact that the Wizards will be playing with triple-revenge, as they have lost all 3 of the previous meetings against Boston this season, including a heartbreaking 117-119 home loss to the Celtics recently on 1/16. Washington is going to lay everything on the line in this game and I just don't see Boston being able to match the intensity.
It's worth noting that in the previous meeting at Washington on 1/16 the Celtics were a 1.5-point favorite. Despite winning that game and having gone 3-0 in the series this season, we now see the Wizards as a 2.5-point favorite. That's a good sign the books also believe Washington will have the upper hand in this one.
Wizards will be playing their 4th straight at home and are a dominant 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after playing 2 straight games at home. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against the Eastern Conference.
Brandon Lee
Jazz -1½
This is a great spot to back the Jazz as a small home favorite against the Pistons. Utah is way undervalued right now due to their 19-24 record, as injuries have really kept this team from playing up to their potential. They are still 12-9 at home and will be playing with 2 days of rest after destroying the Nets 108-86 in Brooklyn on Friday. Detroit had yesterday off, but are playing their 4th straight road game in a span of just 6 days. Pistons are just 9-14 on the road and haven't exactly been playing well of late with a 6-9 record over their last 15. Detroit is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after playing their previous game against a team from the Western Conference, while Utah is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after playing their previous game as a favorite.
Stephen Nover
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Play: Houston Rockets +4.5
The Pelicans still hold out hope of getting the No. 8 seed in the West. So far they are taking advantage of a prolonged homestand to play their finest ball going 5-1 in their last six games, including winning three in a row. So why step in against them with a Houston team minus injured center Dwight Howard, who might have been able to neutralize Anthony Davis? Because the Rockets still have plenty of talent, a stronger bench than the Pelicans and can't afford to lose this matchup with road games looming on Wednesday against the Spurs and Friday versus the Thunder. Oh, and the Pelicans also are bogus. New Orleans, 11 games below .500, still isn't up to par physically with Eric Gordon sidelined with a broken finger. The Pelicans have won their past four home contests. In those games, though, the Pelicans defeated the injury-depleted Hornets by two points, the poorly-coached, unable-to-finish games Timberwolves, the road-weary Pistons and the inconsistent Bucks. The Rockets are a step above those flawed teams. The Pelicans haven't been able to overcome their many injuries because they lack depth. That's not the case with Houston. The Rockets upgraded their bench by bringing back Josh Smith, who has looked good in his two games since coming from the Clippers. The Rockets have the defensive versatility to keep Davis in check. The Pelicans rank 25th in points allowed and 24th in 3-point defense. They're going to have problems handling James Harden. After a slow start and coaching change, the Rockets have come on to go 24-22 on the season with eight wins in their last 11 games. During their last four road games, the Rockets lost to the hot Clippers in overtime, rolled past the Lakers by 17, defeated the Grizzlies by 16 and knocked off the Jazz. The Rockets should not be this high of underdogs against this opponent.
Jesse Schule
Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Pick: Over
The Cavs are the top team in the Eastern Conference, and under David Blatt they had one of the NBA’s best defenses. Blatt was 83-40 overall during his tenure in Cleveland, and still he was given his marching orders. LeBron denies having anything to do with the decision, but a source close to Cavs has said: “Ty wanted the job from the beginning, and LeBron wanted him to have it,’’ “There was a division within the players, but J.R. [Smith], [Iman] Shumpert, even [Kevin] Love sided with LeBron. Kyrie [Irving] was supportive of Dave, but there were a group the last two weeks trying to get him fired.’’
Cleveland’s first game in the Tyronn Lue era was nothing short of a disaster, losing by double digits at home to the Bulls. After the game Lue questioned his team’s conditioning: “I think we have to play faster,” Lue told the team’s official website. “I think we have to utilize Kyrie and LeBron’s one-on-one ability in transition to open the floor more and run in more drags. We just haven’t been accustomed to playing that way …”
They shouldn’t have any trouble picking up the pace against Minnesota, a team that is among the league’s worst defensively. The Wolves have allowed over 100 points in six of their last seven overall. These teams have scored plenty of points in recent meetings, with three of the last four going over the total. Only one of those games was played in Cleveland, and the Cavs that contest by a score of 125-104. They scored an average of 113 points in those games. The over is 6-1-1 in Timberwolves last 8 road games.