Rob Veno
Houston at New Orleans
Play: Houston +4.5
A strong 65-46 second half by Houston catapulted them to a much needed home victory over division rival Dallas. Despite the absence of starting C Dwight Howard, Houston was able to out-rebound the Mavs 40-36 and they are now 2-0 since his back injury sidelined him. In those two victories over Milwaukee and Dallas, the Rockets launched 88 three pointers going 15-44 in each contest. New Orleans currently allows opponents to hit 36.5% of their threes which ranks ranks 22nd in the NBA and doesn’t bode well for them tonight. Houston has also had a couple of key additions to their lineup which have helped greatly during Howard’s absence. First off the return from injury of starting PG Patrick Beverly was very impactful in yesterday’s game as he held Mavs PG Derron Williams to just 1-of-9 FG shooting and 4 points. His defensive presence tonight figures to make things tough for Pelicans PG Norris Cole (starting due to the season ending injury to Eric Gordon) and his backup Jrue Holiday. Matchups continue to be tough for New Orleans in the backcourt as the shaky knee of Tyreke Evans must deal with Rockets star SG James Harden. Another positive for Houston came to light in yesterday’s game as Josh Smith who was acquired late last week returned to the Rockets bench and contributed 16 points. Houston’s depth is now better equipped to absorb back-back contests and even the current injury to Howard. However, they do face a suddenly hot New Orleans squad which has rattled off three straight double digit wins and are with four games of the Western Conference’s eight playoff spot. PF Anthony Davis has spurred the charge along with red hot three point shooting which has totaled 32/66/48.5% during the 3-0 run. Pelicans have also been on an “over” binge going 5-0 over the total in their last five games. These teams have split their two meeting thus far with the home team winning each but New Orleans was only 6-11 ats at home prior to their recent three wins. Power Ratings made this game pick-em and with +5 available at some major shops, have to side with the underdog which has the potential to win straight up here.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ Cleveland
Pick: Minnesota +13.5
Cleveland has a new coach and is 3-3 the last six games, losing two of those games as favorites of -10.5 and -3.5. Here they are a huge favorite again against a young, uptempo Minnesota team. Minnesota likes to run with plenty of offensive playmakers, off a 106-101 win and cover over Memphis. Minnesota is getting strong play off the bench from Shabazz Muhammad, while former Cavaliers draft pick Andrew Wiggins is thriving along with point guard Ricky Rubio. Wiggins is shooting 52.6 percent from the floor over the last six games. The Timberwolves are 9-3 ATS away vs. a team with a winning home record. Tyronn Lue is the new Cleveland coach, 0-1 after a loss to Chicago, 96-83, as a double-digit favorite at home. Not a good start for the new coach! He wants Cleveland to operate at a faster pace and suggested the team was out of shape following Saturday's 96-83 setback. Cleveland moved faster than Chicago, but shot 37.2 percent from the field and went nine of 22 at the free-throw line, so this shift in strategy may take time to click, if it clicks at all. And the Cavaliers are 7-19-2 ATS against a team with a losing straight up record.
Ken Thomson
Iowa St. -1.5
There are still many shops both here in Nevada or off-shore where you can lay minus one on this game....Both these teams are solid but until Kansas shows me they can go into hostile environment and win on the road at Big Time venues I will go against them. The loss at West Virginia was expected as Huggy has a heck of a team but the loss at Stillwater showed me that this Jayhawk team needs to play better team ball on the road and try and ignore the crowd a little more. Okie State dominated KU from the get go and every time the Jayhawks started to make a run they would get stepped on by a young inexperienced Cowboys squad who of course is without their senior guard Forte. Iowa State got smacked in conference at home by Baylor but rebounded nicely to beat Oklahoma. Expect Niang to have his usual solid game. McKay & Morris are nice pieces as well but the key to me is when Abdel Nader gets into the game offensively as he drives to the rack with ease and could use either hand down low. The transfer from Northern Illinois, now in his second year in Ames, had big 20 point games at home in the Baylor loss but also against Oklahoma, hitting on ( 10 of 12 ) from the floor as the Cyclones blew past the Sooners in the second half. If Kansas is truly a potential Final Four team they need to learn how to win away from Lawrence. I see Iowa State by 5-12 points tonight!
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Cavaliers over the Timberwolves.
Cleveland fires their head coach, then proceeds to go out over the weekend and get hammered at home against Chicago.
Tonight expect the Cavs to be the ones doing the hammering, as they take on a T-Wolves team that they have controlled in each of the last 3 meetings both straight up and against the spread.
The latest victory was a 125-99 thumping back on January 9th at the Target Center.
Minny has won just twice in their last 10 games, and they appear to have no solution for LeBron James and company.
With egg still on their face from that stunning weekend loss to the Bulls, expect Cleveland to mop the floor tonight with Minnesota.
5* CLEVELAND
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play winner is the Celtics plus the points at the Wizards.
Boston has owned the series this season against Washington, as their 119-117 win and cover on January 16th made it 3 in a row this season both straight up and against the spread in favor of the C's.
Boston comes into D.C. having won their last pair of games, and 5 of their last 7 straight up, while the Celts have also covered in 6 of their past 7 contests.
As for Washington, the Wizards are only 2-5 straight up their last 7 on their home hardwood, and that includes their loss to Boston on the 16th.
Matchups work once again in favor of the Celtics.
3* BOSTON
Dave Price
Utah Jazz -2
The Utah Jazz are 4-4 in their last 8 games overall with 2 of their losses coming in overtime, and another by 2 points. So they are close to being 7-1 during this stretch as their 4 wins have come by 15, 12, 27 and 22 points. Now they've had two days off since crushing Brooklyn 108-86 on the road on January 22. They are rested and ready to go tonight at home against Detroit, which is just 2-5 in its last 7 games. The Pistons are 9-14 SU & 9-14 ATS on the road this season. The Jazz are 12-9 SU & 12-7-2 ATS at home. Utah is 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a favorite this season. The Jazz are 48-19 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games. The Pistons are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Jazz.
Jack Jones
Pistons/Jazz Under 194
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this battle between the Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight, which has been the case the last three times these teams have gotten together.
Indeed, the Jazz and Pistons have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of the last three meetings. They have combined for 179, 173 and 193 points in the last three meetings, which is an average of 181.7 points per game. That's more than 12 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.
A big reason oddsmakers have inflated this total is because the Pistons are 3-0-1 to the OVER in their last four games, while the Jazz are 4-0-1 to the OVER in their last five. But the Jazz have played two overtime games during their stretch, while the Nuggets have played some poor defensive teams in Houston, New Orleans and Denver.
Utah is 14-6 to the UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The UNDER is 16-5 in Utah's last 21 home games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 22-9-1 in Jazz last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Spurs vs. Warriors
Play: Spurs +5
Of course it is hard to argue against Golden State considering all of their successes but it is also hard to argue against the Spurs getting FIVE points here considering all the successes that San Antonio has had. The Spurs are an incredible 30-14 ATS on the season and this is only the 2nd time this season they have been a dog and they also are well rested here. That is a key for an older core group like the Spurs have and they are 5-1 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. Also, San Antonio is 6-1 ATS this season against teams from the Pacific Division and the Spurs have won 6 of their last 7 meetings with Golden State. The Warriors are only 9-10 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and they again seem to be overvalued here. Golden State has gone from an opener of -3 to now being a 5 point favorite. While I certainly respect the Warriors and their long winning streak on their home floor, I also know how badly San Antonio wants this game as a 'statement' game here in the regular season. Look for the Spurs to give GS all they can handle here and they've got a great shot at the upset win but, if they do fall short, I look for it to be just by a bucket.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +165 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. As far as risky favorites go in this price range, one need not look further than these Rangers. New York is coming off a 3-0 loss to Ottawa. Losing to Ottawa is one thing but not scoring a goal against them is difficult to do but it’s more than just that. The Rangers have lost their edge. They have lost the swagger and desire that made them one of the most difficult outs in in the league over the past two seasons prior to this one. Larry Brooks, one of the finest beat reporters in the business that covers the Rangers had this to say about Alain Vigneault, the coach of the Blue Shirts, “Vigneault is less communicative than any coach I have ever covered on a daily basis. He explains nothing. You rarely know what he’s thinking. He is practiced at sidestepping direct questions about the lineup; combinations; players’ minutes and assignments; and player evaluation.
Slowly but surely the Rangers are breaking down in every department. From their breakouts to their costly defensive miscues to their weak PP and beyond, this is a team absolutely not worth getting behind when favored in this price range. We suggested very early this season that the Rangers look nothing like the past few years and we remain committed to that assessment. They had a decent 10-game run recently in which they played with some heart but it was short lived. Now the Rangers are back to being instant fade material when they are such a heavy favorite.
The Sabres are almost always underpriced. Their four wins over their past 13 games did nothing to increase their market appeal because this market sees wins and losses while we see nothing but great improvement. Buffalo has recent victories over Washington, Winnipeg, Minnesota and Arizona. They have won four of its past seven games but five games in seven nights proved to be a little much for them against the Red Wings on Friday night. With this past weekend off to regroup and get reenergized, give the Sabres a seriously legit shot of knocking off the Rangers here. There is also a little extra motivation for the Sabres because they have lost eight straight to this in-state rival. Buffalo did not have the personnel to compete with New York prior to this year. They do now, especially with the Rangers in a steep decline and that’s what this wager is more about.
Arizona +160 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Coyotes broke a four-game losing streak on Saturday with a victory over the Kings, which had to give them a good feel and a boost of energy as they embark on a brief two-game trip beginning here. The Coyotes have been a tough out all season. Even during their recent four game losing streak, they out-chanced three of those four teams. The Coyotes are a good possession team because they lead the NHL in face-off wins, which means they are often starting with the puck. Goaltender Louis Domingue has made an impact and always seems to give Arizona a shot. Dominigue owns an 8-2-3 mark in his 13 starts this season with two shutouts in those contests. As much as we like the Coyotes as a live pooch, this one is more about fading the Wild, a team that is a huge risk at prices like this.
Minnesota returns home from a four-game trip that started in Nashville and ended with three games in California. Its lone win occurred in Los Angeles. Minnesota has lost six of seven. Prior to defeating L.A., it lost five in a row while scoring four goals over that stretch. It’s rare for this team to rack up more than 28 shots on net in a game, as they rank 26th in shots for per game. The goal of every team is to possess the puck and create opportunities to get a quality shot on net. In terms of quality shots, the Wild rank dead last in the NHL. Because they rarely create, the Wild get few power-play opportunities. Over their past 10 games, Minnesota has had 19 PP opportunities and since the beginning of November, no team has spent less time on the PP than this host. This offensively challenged group is tooth and nails to score two goals. Only one team in the West has scored fewer goals than they have and again, that makes the Wild too big risk when spotting prices in this range. Coming off a four-game trip here makes the Wild even more vulnerable. This line is so high not because the Wild are a quality outfit but because the Coyotes stock rarely goes up, which provides us with opportunities galore. This is one such opportunity.
Detroit +124 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders have won three of its last four games but so what. They defeated the Jackets, Senators and Rangers over that span, three of the most beatable teams in the NHL. The Isles lone loss over that stretch came against Vancouver, another beatable team. In summarizing, the Islanders last four games have been against Ottawa, Vancouver, the Rangers and Columbus. Prior to that, they dropped three of four to Pittsburgh, Washington and Philadelphia. The Islanders only win over that set came against Dallas, 6-5. They have nine wins in 22 games against top-16 teams so no matter how you break this one down, the Islanders are overpriced.
On Saturday, Dallas outshot Colorado 43-15 and lost by two goals. There are several games like that every single week in this league, which confirms our position that goaltending is the #1 factor in deciding the outcome of games. Montreal’s record with and without Carey Price is another example of how goaltending means everything. Goaltending in the NHL plays more of a role in the outcome of games than pitchers do in baseball. We don’t have the data to back that claim up but if you watch enough hockey, you can’t help but get a strong sense of what we’re referring to. We mention this because Petr Mrazek might be the next Carey Price. When he plays, the Red Wings chances of winning are greater than losing. Not only is he a brilliant goaltender, but he gives the entire team more confidence. On Saturday, Jimmy Howard was in goal against the Ducks and Detroit lost, 4-3. Had Mrazek been in goal, we’re extremely confident that result would have favored the Red Wings. Going into a game with superior goaltending always gives a team a fighting chance and that’s the situation here. Besides that, there is a really good chance that Detroit outplays the Islanders anyway. Should that come to fruition, we’ll be cashing this ticket. Give Detroit a better than 50% chance of winning this one and give us the take-back.
SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE -3½ over Oakland
The Golden Grizzlies of Oakland have opened some eyes this season. It started when the Grizzlies went into Washington and won outright as a 10½-point pooch. The very next game, the Grizzlies almost pulled off the upset of the year at that point in time when they lost to Michigan State in OT as an 11-point pup. Two games later, Oakland played Virginia and as a 17-point dog, they gave the Cavaliers more than they bargained for. Oakland eventually lost that game by 13 but it was a one-point game at the half before Virginia pulled away from this pesky group. Because of those three results, the market has taken a deep interest in this Horizon League program and now the Grizzlies stock is higher than it’s even been. That makes us sellers. While we certainly appreciate the efforts of the Grizzlies and the attention it has brought them, there is also a very good chance that those teams took Oakland lightly and one of them paid a heavy price.
That brings us to the Panthers of Milwaukee, a team that has some strong out-of-conference games as well. The Panthers lost at Notre Dame by just eight points as a 15½-point dog. On December 9, they went into Wisconsin and defeated the Badgers as a 12½-point dog. Getting 4½ at Minnesota, Milwaukee upset the Gophers as well. The Panthers have now won five of six to run their overall record to 14-6. In a similar spot last season, Oakland came in here as winners of seven of eight and playing their second road game in three nights and lost by 17. The Grizzlies are once again playing their second road game in three nights after a 111-95 victory in Green Bay on Saturday. The unspoken implication is that the underdog in question is the superior team but we’re not buying that argument either. The oddsmakers' knowledge overrides anything you may hear, read or see so be very alert when you hear a favorite's rhetoric coming from an underdog. Lay the points.
Big Al
Kansas vs. Iowa St.
Pick: Iowa St.
ISU comes into this game red-hot, with SU/ATS wins over Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU. Overall, it's 9-6-1 ATS this season, but 5-1 ATS vs. foes with an .800 (or better) win percentage. Even better: the Cyclones are 36-7 ATS at home when priced from +1 to -3 points! Look for ISU to win its fourth straight tonight.
Neil TheGreek
Cavs -13.5
Cleveland has been dominating the Twolves lately, and boy do they come into this game needing to do just that once again. After the sudden firing of Blatt, their first game did not get off to such a great start as expected. They will be primed and ready to roll Minny out of the building which they will.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI -4 over Duke
We have hit 7 0f our last 10 FREE WINNERS and tonight bask The Miami Hurricanes who come into this game with Duke with a lot of confidence. Miami has been money at home and on the road going 11-6 ATS and face a Duke squad that they match up very well with and that has lost 3 of their last 4 games. Devils freshman phenom Brandon Ingram is a 6’9 forward who averages 17 ppg, but he meets his match here in 6’8 Miami forward Kamari Murphy who posses the physical tools to guard him effectively.
Primetime Insiders
Furman -5.5
It might be hard to go to the wind and place a ticket with Furman but it is a great matchup against VMI. Furman is sitting at 4-3 in the conference coming off a home win against Wofford while VMI is coming off an upset win against Samford. This Furman team is known for their defense but their offense isn't half bad. They crush the offensive glass with Acox and Rafferty and get to the line quite a bit. VMI is undersized and doesn't play defense which should make this a juicy matchup for the underrated Furman offense. On the other side of the ball is where Furman shines. They turn teams over and really limit open looks. Furman wins by 10+
Green Bay -5.5
This is quite the matchup in the Horizon league pitting two teams that like to play at a blistering pace. The key to this game is Green Bay's ability to play defense and turn teams over. Detroit is lead offensively Paris Bass. Detroit loves to attack the basket and get to the line and does a good job of crashing the glass. Green Bay's trump card is the ability to turn teams over at one of the highest rates in basketball. On the offensive side of the ball, Green Bay is quite balanced and attacks the glass. Detroit does not play defense which should allow Green Bay to get many open looks in this high scoring affair. First team to 100 wins which should be Green Bay behind Love, Fouse, and company.
St. Peter's -5
The true key to this game is St. Peter's handling the pressure of Manhattan. Manhattan is one of the best teams at turning teams over. The backcourt combination of Wyche and Patterson should be able to handle the pressure leading to many open looks for St. Peter's. Additionally, St. Peter's should be able to dominate the glass with Welton, Hawkins, and Desport. If they can get second chance looks this game should get out of hand early with Manhattan's anemic offense.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – Orlando (+5) over MEMPHIS
Orlando has been struggling lately but they’ve also played with Payton and Oladipo in just 2 of their last 8 games, which explains some of the problem. The rest is just variance and Orlando is barely worse than an average team this season when both Payton and Oladipo play. Memphis is an average team with their current roster and my ratings favor the Grizzlies by just 3 points in this game. I’ll lean with Orlando at +5 points or more based on the line value.