VEGAS EXPERTS
Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are on a franchise record 10-game home win streak and face a Magic team that has dropped 9 of 12 on the road. Memphis is 14-1 ATS this season if they were favored in their previous game and are 13-2 ATS coming off a home win. The Grizz have the edge in rest since they had the weekend off and swept the season series with Orlando last year against the spread.
Play on: Memphis
JIM FEIST
ATLANTA HAWKS / HOUSTON ROCKETS
TAKE: ATLANTA HAWKS
The Atlanta Hawks have won two straight after Friday's win at home over Charlotte, 103-89. The Hawks have now won five of their last six and seven of nine. They have also covered six of their last nine games. Atlanta is tied for first place in the Southeast division with Orlando. Atlanta has slipped a bit on the road, losing three straight and now standing at 10-9 overall away this season. They have also had trouble playing at Houston, having lost 10 straight at the Rockets. The Rockets dropped their last game against Chicago, 104,97. The loss drops Houston to 24-19 SU and 22-20 ATS on the season. The loss to Chicago also marked the club's sixth straight OVER. Houston is 19th in the league in points allowed (100.68) and 12th in points scored (100.91). These clubs already played once this season with the Hawks taking a 105-103 at home over the Rockets. It was the second straight OVER in the series and fourth in the last six games. The Rockets continue to dangle the Tracy McGrady carrot out there, but so far no takers. The Rockets also are having a problem with their big off-season acquisition, Trevor Ariza. Ariza has struggled with his confidence of late as his shooting percentage has now dipped to below 38%. Houston appears to be the team more in turmoil right now and that usually doesn't translate well on the court. The Hawks are playing better and while we need a straight up win here on Monday, that doesn't look too difficult.
Rocketman
Phoenix @ Utah
Play: Utah -7
Utah is 68-42 ATS at home the past 3 years. Utah is 13-3 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more. Utah scores an average of 105.2 points per game at home this year. Phoenix has lost 5 of their last 7 games overall. Utah has won 6 of their last 7 games overall. Suns are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Jazz are 7-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Jazz are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Suns are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight!
SEAN MURPHY
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz
PICK: Under 221.5
This number has been on the rise since opening, but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction.
The Utah Jazz have really ratcheted up the defensive intensity in the last month or so, particularly at home, where they've allowed just over 91 points per game over their last eight contests.
The Phoenix Suns would love to turn this one into a track meet. They're averaging close to 110 ppg this season and that number hasn't taken much of a hit on the road. However, this is a struggling team right now. They're still scoring, but they've won only twice in their last seven games. Now they're dealing with the absence of their energizer off the bench in Leandro Barbosa. I don't see the Suns walking into Utah and imposing their will against a red hot Jazz squad tonight.
The Jazz have kept the pace to a minimum in their recent games, attempting fewer than 80 shots in six of their last seven contests. Yet the over has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. Keep in mind, the total has been set at 195 points or less in four of those five 'over' results. We're getting a much more generous number to work with tonight.
The Suns may have the reputation of being an 'over' team, yet the under is actually 13-9-1 in their 23 road games this season. The Jazz have seen the over cash in 13 of their 23 home games, but five of their last eight at EnergySolutions Arena have stayed under the total.
Note that these teams have met in Utah three times since the start of the 07-08 season and all three of those games have played under tonight's posted total, averaging just over 193 points in regulation time. I get the feeling that this one will be lower-scoring than expected. Take the under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Clippers +11.5
Boston has dropped 4 straight ATS and is just 6-13 ATS at home this season. The Celtics are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Monday games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Pacific. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Eastern Conference and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games with the Celtics. We'll take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Rockets -1
Atlanta is one of the best home teams in the NBA, but it is just 10-9 on the road. Meanwhile, Houston is 13-6 at home, and it will be very motivated tonight after a poor performance at home Saturday against the Bulls. In fact, Houston is an impressive 15-5 ATS off a upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 97.5 to 89.3. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings with the Rockets and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Houston. They are also 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. Take the Rockets.
Tony George
Hawks +1 @ Rockets
Atlanta is kicking it in gear on offense, and have the players and depth here to win this game on the road. The KEY in this game is the difference on Defense. Houston has been horrific on defense allowing 108 ppg their last 5 games,while the Hawks are allowing 92 ppg in the same timeframe. I have an 6 point power rating difference which shows me, even on the road, the Hawks should be favored 4 to 5 points with the overlay on the spread. Thats a solid margin worth the stretch in basically a pick'em ballgame with the better team overall in our corner.
Ron Raymond
NYR (+100) vs PIT
The Rangers are coming off a 6-0 and will be a home underdog for only the second time this season. However, they are up against a Penguins team who don't play well in this building and are 2-8 SU in their last 10 to MSG. Fleury question mark to play, but Lundqvist is solid at home.
Brett Atkins
Improved to 11-5 with my last 16 free selections when I nailed Sunday's college hoops play on Cincinnati as the Bearcats got within the number at Louisville. Today's freebie is on the NBA hardwood as I go with the Heat at home hosting Cleveland.
Love the way the Heat are playing offensively right now as they are coming off back-to-back blowout wins, and it’s not all about star Dwyane Wade.
They are getting great all-around play right now and second-year player Michael Beasley is starting to come along very nicely, as he put up 21 points and had 13 rebounds in a 115-84 win over Sacramento on Saturday, leading the Heat as they covered the seven-point line at home.
Cleveland can’t seem to get a spread-cover lately, including Saturday when they edged the Thunder 100-99 but didn’t come anywhere near the number as 8 ½-point favorites. The Cavs have been tough on the road this season but they have some injuries that could hurt them, especially in this one. Mo Williams is out for a while, forcing them to adjust things in the backcourt.
The Cavs are on ATS slides of 1-4-1 on the road, 1-4-1 overall and 1-7-1 after a straight-up win. On the other side, Miami in on positive ATS runs of 6-1 against the Central Division, 7-3 against the Eastern Conference and 5-2 at home.
Look for the Heat to continue to light it up and pull off the upset of the Cavs in this one. Grab the points to be safe, but don’t be surprised when they win.
4♦ MIAMI
Jay McNeil
The under in the AFC Championship Game was looking outstanding after a scoreless first quarter Sunday, but the points piled up after that and I took a loss with my free play, dropping my record to 41-35-1 over the last 77 days. I'll bounce back today, however, with an NBA winner!
The Jazz are playing well right now, having won six of its last seven overall and five straight at home. The Suns, meanwhile, have lost four straight on the road, giving up an average of 118.5 ppg.
Phoenix has lost 11 of 12 road games since Nov. 29, and five of its last six in Utah, including three straight.
Utah is holding opponents to 91.4 ppg and 42.4 percent shooting during its five-game winning streak in Salt Lake City. And Jazz big men Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer have been solid against the Suns. Okur is averaging 21.3 points and 12.7 rebounds in his last seven games against Phoenix, while Boozer is averaging 19.8 points and 10.2 boards in his last 10 games vs. the Suns.
The Jazz are on ATS runs of 7-0-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 4-0-1 as a favorite and 4-0-1 as a home favorite. The Suns, meanwhile, are on ATS slides of 1-4 overall and 2-5 on the road. Take Utah to cover the spread on its home court tonight.
4♦ UTAH
Joel Tyson
Chicago enters San Antonio on an uptick, as the Bulls have won their last pair, and 6 of their last 8 straight up, but this is also the Bulls 5th of 7 in a row on the road, and I have a feeling the Spurs are going to take it to them.
San Antonio lost the season's first meeting to the Bulls back on October 29th, and with the Spurs having lost their last pair, and 4 of their last 6, tonight looks like as good a night as any to right their ship.
Prior to losing to Chicago back in October, the Spurs had won and covered 4 straight in this series.
I am laying the points with the Spurs in this one.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Bobcats plus the points at the Nuggets in Monday’s NBA action.
Charlotte has been dreadful on the road this year, dropping 16 of 19 games (compared with an 18-5 home record). But the Bobcats are a respectable 11-8 ATS as a visitor, and two of their three road victories came this month in -- of all places -- Miami and Cleveland. And while they’ve lost back-to-back contests to Atlanta (103-89 on Friday) and Orlando (106-95 on Saturday), the Bobcats are still 9-3 SU in their last 12 games (including those two road triumphs over D-Wade and LeBron).
More than anything, this is a play against the Nuggets, whose best player (Carmelo Anthony) won’t play because of a sprained ankle. (Denver also will be without sharpshooter J.R. Smith, who is suspended). Carmelo missed the first five games of this month with a knee injury and without him, the Nuggets went 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS, losing to the 76ers at home and at Sacramento.
The Nuggets have won six in a row, but two came in overtime, and they’re 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last eight after getting one day of rest. Also, with ’Melo in the lineup (he scored 34 points), the Bobcats knocked off Denver 107-5 as a three-point home underdog back on Dec. 8.
3♦ CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Jeff Benton
I'm still on a 7-3 roll with complimentary selections despite Sunday's loser with Indiana in college hoops. For Monday’s free play, I’ll head to the NBA and take the Bulls plus the points at San Antonio.
I know Chicago may be without a key component tonight, as leading rebounder Joakim Noah is questionable with a foot injury. But Noah didn’t play in Houston on Saturday, when the Bulls followed up Friday’s 115-104 upset of the Suns as a 6½-point underdog with a 104-97 win over the Rockets as a six-point pup. It doesn’t get much more impressive than beating the Suns and Rockets on the road on consecutive nights.
Then again, the Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They’ve won six of their last eight games and 10 of their last 15, going 11-4 ATS during this stretch. That includes road upsets of Houston, Phoenix and Boston.
Going the opposite direction are the Spurs, who have lost two in a row and four out of five (both SU and ATS). They’ve also failed to cover in six of their last nine games, going 1-4 ATS in their last five at home. In fact, the day before the Bulls went to Houston and tripped up the Rockets by seven points, the Spurs hosted Houston and lost by seven points. Hmm …
The Bulls, who had no trouble with San Antonio back in their season opener (92-85 win as a three-point home underdog), are on ATS runs of 7-1 as an underdog, 19-9-2 against Western Conference teams, 7-0-1 against Southwest Division teams and 4-0 as an underdog in this price range (5 to 10½ points). Take the generous points.
5♦ CHICAGO BULLS
Insider Angles
The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Indiana Pacers as 2.5-point road underdogs at Indiana in the first half of this home-and-home series on Saturday, but we like the Pacers to at the very least cover this spread in the return match in Philadelphia.
After all, one of the reasons for backing the 76ers on Saturday was that the Pacers are too weak of a team to be giving points, but now the shoe is on the other foot as that same logic now applies to Philadelphia.
The Sixers are a dismal 15-28 overall, but what is worse is that they are just 7-14 straight up and 5-16 against the spread here at home, getting outscored by an average of -3.1 points per game in their own building. If we extend back to last year, Philadelphia is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games, and as evidence that the 76ers are not reliable giving points, they are an atrocious 5-11 ATS as favorites this season regardless of the venue.
The Pacers should be in an ornery mood after losing to this team at home, but keep in mind that Indiana was playing their fourth game in five nights Saturday, which may help explain why they were outrebounded 52-44, including 16 offensive boards for Philly. They needed the day off Sunday more than the Sixers did, so look for an improved outing by the Pacers here.
Given that these teams are not separated by much in terms of ability and Philadelphia has not protected their home court well, the right-back revenge angle may be all Indiana needs to not only cover this number, but possibly emerge victorious.
Pick: Pacers +4.5
OffshoreInsiders
No. 14 Georgetown at No. 5 Syracuse
Syracuse is the favorite at 5.5 points. The Orange (19-1, 11-4 ATS) have been on a roll, winning six in a row since the team’s only loss of the season. Not only is Syracuse winning outright, it’s also delivering for fans betting the point spread—the team has covered in five of its last six games.
Offensively, the team is fifth in the country at 84 points per game. Forward Wesley Johnson is leading the way; the junior is first on the team in scoring (17.3 PPG) and rebounding (9.1 RPG). The Orange aren’t pushovers in their own end of the floor though, and are allowing a solid 65.2 PPG on “D.”
Georgetown (15-3, 8-6 ATS) has won two straight, but the Hoyas have dropped two of their last six games, both on the road. Worse yet, the team is just 3-3 against the spread in its last six games, meaning college basketball betting fans are having a tough time backing this unpredictable squad.
Though not as potent as Syracuse’s, the Hoyas offense can score. Three players—Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe and Chris Wright—are averaging at least 15 points per game, while Jason Clark is also scoring in double figures.
This has been a very even series; the teams have split their last four meetings both straight up and against the spread. The total has gone over three straight times.
Pick: Syracuse
Missouri at No. 3 Kansas
Since losing at Tennessee, the Jayhawks have won four straight. Kansas (18-1, 8-7-1 ATS) hasn’t been so hot against the spread, however, going 2-3-1 in its last six outings. There’s also a 2-4 record ATS in its last six home games for professional gamblers.
Kansas owns the country’s fourth-best offense at 84.9 points per game. Four players are averaging double-figures this season, with guard Sherron Collins leading the way at 16.0 PPG. The Jayhawks also possess a very good defense and will have a significant rebounding edge over Missouri.
Missouri (15-4, 8-5 ATS) lost 66-61 at Oklahoma two weeks ago but is in the midst of a 10-1 run. The Tigers have been great against the point spread lately, too, going 3-1 in their last four outings.
Offensively, Missouri can keep up with Kansas at 81.6 points per game. Kim English paces the team with 14.8 points per outing, but the Tigers ultimately rely on a little bit of scoring from everyone. As mentioned earlier, though, they’ll struggle on the boards; Laurence Bowers leads Missouri at just 5.9 rebounds per game.
The Jayhawks have won six of their last seven games against Missouri while covering two straight against the spread. The total has been a mixed bag, splitting 2-2 over the past four matchups.
Pick: Kansas