Stan Lisowski
Cleveland
The Cavs have controlled this matchup of late, as they have won and covered the last 3 meetings of the series. With each win coming by at least 7 points. Cleveland has a road record that is actually better than Miami’s home mark so far this season. Off of a win, the Heat are almost a 60% play against proposition in their next game.
Nelly
Portland - over New Orleans
Entering this game off an overtime loss in Denver could make for a tough situation for the Hornets. This is the third straight road game for the Hornets and incredibly this team is just 7-16 S/U in road games on the season. Portland survived a very tough road trip with a split and the Trailblazers are 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Portland has owned this series with wins in six of the last eight meetings against the spread including a road win in New Orleans earlier this season. Portland is without star Brandon Roy but this line has been adjusted a bit too severely as the Blazers still have a complete team even without their most consistent and dynamic playmaker. New Orleans is also a banged up team with Morris Peterson and David West questionable for this game. Given the travel and the big game on Saturday this should be a much more favorable situation for the Trailblazers and Portland is 16-7 at home this season.
John Ryan
Tennessee Chattanooga at Wofford
Prediction: Wofford
3* graded play on Wofford as they take on UT-Chatanooga set to start at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model/simulator shows conclusive results that Woffard will win this game by 15 or more points. UT-Chatanooga is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Another reason we like this game is that Woffard has returned 5 starters from last year?s edition and UTC has ZERO this season. That chemistry provides a tremendous edge against an inexperienced team. That inexperience is magnified on the road too. UTC is just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997. We strongly believe that UTC will score 60 or less points. Note that they are 11-36 ATS since 1997 and 4-9 ATS over the past 3 seasons when scoring 60 or fewer points. Take Wofford.
Larry Ness
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz
PICK: Utah Jazz -6.5
The Suns got off to an 8-3 start on the road but are 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS since December 1 away from home. The lone win in that span was a four-point win at Sacramento on January 5 and the Suns come into Salt Lake City to face the Jazz having lost four straight road games while allowing a disturbing 118.5 PPG! In contrast, the Jazz are 17-6 SU and 15-7-1 ATS at home, entering on a five-game home winning streak. The Jazz have averaged 112.0 PPG on 54.3 percent shooting during their current streak, while holding opponents to 91.4 PPG on 42.4 percent shooting. Why not lay the points with Utah?
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LA Clippers +11.5
While Boston is 12-7 at home this season, it is just 6-13 ATS. I know Kevin Garnett is now back in the lineup, and I know the Clippers just played yesterday, but I believe odds makers are asking too much of the Celtics to cover this large of a number tonight. Boston plays the Magic, Hawks, and Lakers in its next three games so this could very well be a look ahead spot. The Clippers are 11-3 ATS their last 14 games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games with Boston. They are also a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. the Eastern Conference and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. the NBA Atlantic Division. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Western Conference and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. They are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or more points. Take the Clippers and the points.
Chris Jordan
Indiana at PHILADELPHIA -5'
Look for Philadelphia to wrap up this home-and-home series sweep over Indiana, as the Pacers looked outmatched at home in a 107-97 loss to the Sixers on Saturday. While Elton Brand scored 23 points and Thaddeus Young contributed a double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds, the 76ers looked like a resurgent team concentrating on that eighth slot in the Eastern Conference.
Philadelphia, which is just ahead of these Pacers in the overall conference standings, trails eighth-place Chicago by 5-1/2 games in the Eastern Conference. And it seems the reunion with All-Star starter Allen Iverson has this team revitalized after a dismal 5-15 start to the campaign. The Sixers are 10-13 since he resigned with the team that drafted him, as he’s brought a sense of leadership and confidence to the team.
At home, the Sixers are going to take advantage of a weary Pacers team that will be playing its fifth game in seven nights. So while Philly might be 7-14 at home, the Pacers are 5-18 on the road - fourth worst in the East. Lay the chalk tonight.
3♦ SIXERS
Drew Gordon
Georgetown +6 at SYRACUSE
45-27-3 roll L75 Free Plays (13-4 L17), incl. the Vikings cover at the Saints in last night's NFC Title Game! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Georgetown/Syracuse match up.
This is a interesting match up, mainly because the line and perception are very very fishy. You'd think with the Orange being relatively considerable favs in this spot, that we'd see plenty of public action on the underdog Hoyas, but that has not been the case. Instead, with between 65-70% of the public siding with Syracuse, I'm focusing on the fact the line has not moved since its initial move off -5'. In other words, something is keeping this line down despite the public loving the Orange here... And that something is the sharps liking the value they're getting with revenge-seeking Hoyas!
I'm well aware the Hoyas has lost 5 in a row (1-4 ATS) at the Carrier Dome. However, relying on history alone is a dangerous way to lose your ass in this game. We also have to look at match ups, and I happen to see several strong edges for the Hoyas in this one.
Syracuse-backers were happy to see the Orange take care of business vs Marquette, using their size to DOMINATE the boards (43 boards to 21 for Marquette), and the paint in general. However, that edge goes out the window in this match up, as Greg Monroe and Julian Vaughn are more than capable of matching up with Johnson & Onuaku. Not to mention, it was key Hoyas back-up C Henry Sims got some playing time versus Rutgers, because he'll play some key minutes in this contest.
Finally, for all the talk about Syracuse, there's no question they present FAR more value on the road (7-0 ATS), then at home (5-4 ATS). Yes, they owned the boards against Marquette in their last one, but the Golden Eagles STILL covered! Do not make the mistake over overestimating Syracuse, especially in a conference match up vs. an opponent seeking revenge.
Take Georgetown plus the points over Syracuse in this college hoops match up.
2♦ GEORGETOWN
Michael Cannon
Boise State at IDAHO -4'
I am now 70-51-3 with my last 124 free plays.
Take Idaho as the home chalk over Boise State.
This isn’t football and Boise certainly doesn’t rule the WAC in hoops.
The Broncos are 0-7 in conference play so far, which is the worst-ever start in school history. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six and 1-8 ATS in their last nine lined contests.
Boise is soft defensively and they shoot a WAC-worst 30.8 percent from beyond the arc, which means they have trouble staying close in games and/or coming back from deficits.
Those ingredients are not conducive to having success on the road.
Idaho has a veteran backcourt that should exploit the defensive shortcomings of the Broncos. The Vandals are on a five-game skid of their own and this is a good spot for them to get back on the winning tracks against a weaker rival.
Take Idaho minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ IDAHO
Matt Fargo
3* Miami Heat
The more I look at this game the more I like Miami. Cleveland is a very popular pick and being a contrarian player in the NBA, I look to go the other way with teams like that and that is the case again here. As of late Monday morning, 78 percent of the betting action is on the Cavaliers let the line has completely gone the other way as Cleveland opened as a 1.5-point favorite and now the line is even with Miami actually favored by a point in some places. That may seem like the line is not moving in our favor but it is moving exactly the way I like because games like this I find reverse line movement to be more beneficial. The Heat are coming off back-to-back wins against Sacramento and Washington, not exactly the most stellar of competition but wins are win and Miami needs them. Miami is 5-2 over its last seven games to move back over .500 on the season to move into 5th place in the Eastern Conference standings. The Heat will be looking for revenge tonight following a home loss against the Cavaliers in the first meeting this season. Cleveland has won four straight games but this will be its third straight game without point guard Mo Williams. The Cavaliers won against the Lakers in the final seconds in the first game and then defeated Oklahoma City by just one point in the second game on Saturday. This is the Cavaliers first road game without Williams and making matter worse is the fact that backup point guard Delonte West is also out with a fractured finger so it will be up to Anthony Parker to run the show. The Cavaliers are 17-8 on the road this season and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS at underdogs, all of which have been on the road so the number is appealing to those who like to follow those trends. However the Cavaliers are just 1-8 ATS this season following four or more consecutive wins and just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win of any kind. Miami also falls into a very solid situation. Play against teams that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg after two straight wins by six points or less. This situation is 64-33 ATS 66 percent) since 1996. 3* Miami Heat
SPORTS WAGERS
New Orleans +1.30 over PORTLAND
Whether you like them or not, you really have to admire the efforts and determination of this Blazers squad. They are the walking wounded and extremely undermanned yet they’re still managing to play hard and win games. In fact, they’ve won four of its last six with two of those wins coming on the road. The Blazers will return home tonight after a four-game trip and one has to figure that after playing their hearts out every game of every quarter they could be extremely flat tonight. Even at their best tonight they’re still going to have a tough time pulling this one out with all the injuries they have. When the Hornets show up they’re very tough, as recent wins in Ok City, Utah and Memphis will attest to. The Hornets are loaded with shooters and it’s going to be very difficult for this host to keep pace after all they’ve been through over the past few weeks. This is a great spot for the visitor to steal one on the road and there’s no reason why they can’t do exactly that. Play: New Orleans +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Indiana +1.62 over PHILADELPHIA
When +1.62 is offered against the 76ers on anyone not named New Jersey you’re getting some great value and this one is no exception. The good news is that the 76ers went into Indian on Saturday as a 3½-point pooch and beat them outright so the chances of the 76ers beating the same team twice in succession is not so good. The Pacers are very capable of beating this team and frankly, they should be able to. Man for man, the Pacers are the superior squad in every way except for perhaps defense but it’s not like the 76ers are some defensive juggernaut either. The Pacers have more options, they should win the battle of the boards and its bench is deeper as well. So, yeah, of course the 76ers can win here but they can lose just as easily and with a take-back like this offered in what is a 50/50 proposition, the play has to be the guest. Play: Indiana +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
MIAMI –1 over Cleveland
One has to figure the Heat to show up big time here in what should feature a rare big crowd in Miami. When the Heat show up they can beat anyone and with the whole country watching LeBron against D-Wade, you know for sure D-Wade will give it his all tonight. LeBron always gives it his all but damn this Heat team is so dangerous that they have to be considered one of the biggest underachievers of the year. Miami is just 23-20 overall and just 13-10 at home but they really have a chance to at least put the Cav’s on notice that they’re not going to roll over come playoff time. Miami is warming up with three wins in its last four and all three wins have been by 24 points or more. The Cav’s are still without Delonte West and Mo Williams, two key components that run the offense, especially West. Miami needs to make a stand at some point in the season and you can just see them heating up at the moment leading up to this one. With all that talent and not much in terms of results, expect the Heat to play its best game of the year. Play: Miami –1 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
MEMPHIS +1.06 over Orlando
Great spot for the Grizz to beat one of the league’s elite, as there’s a very good chance the Magic will not be very interested here. You see, the Magic are coming off three wins in a row capped by an OT win over the Cats on Saturday. The kicker here is that the Magic will take to the road for this one game and will return home to play the Celtics and Atlanta in what has to be considered two of its biggest games of the season. The Grizzlies love to play and they play hard. They’ve been one of the Association’s best teams over the past six weeks with 13 wins over its past 17 games. The Grizzlies are rested and should be raring to go and they really couldn’t have asked for a better time to face the Magic in terms of Orlando’s scheduling. Play: Memphis +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Saint Joseph’s –5½ over PENNSYLVANIA
Talk about a fall from grace – Pennsylvania has gone from king of the Ivy League to doormat at a troubling pace, sitting at 1-12 on the season with its only win over Maryland Baltimore County. Their offense and defense are obviously atrocious and the with them wrapping up Big Five play tonight it is hard to see how they are going to find any motivation to win tonight’s tilt. Big Five play pits Pennsylvania against the other Philadelphia schools and the results so far have been awful. A 15-point loss to Temple and a 19-point loss to La Salle both at home tells me this team is nowhere close to competing against mid-major schools. Saint Joseph’s is easily the weakest of the Big Five teams but has just come off a very impressive win against Dayton and has two non-conference games they absolutely must win if they are going to have any shot at the NIT. While that goal is probably unattainable, it’s up to the coaching staff to sell it to the players and Phil Martelli is a guy you can count on to do so. Talent wise, these teams aren’t at the same level but as the past couple of weeks have shown talent alone doesn’t win games. The motivation for Saint Joseph’s to get this win tonight is as high as its going to be, especially coming off a big win while Pennsylvania will simply have to play out the string the rest of the season. Play: Saint Joseph’s –5½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Passing NHL
Lenny Del Genio
UTA -7 vs PHO
Home court advantage is becoming paramount in the Western Conference as everyone besides Golden State and Minnesota boasts winning records on their own floor and only three teams have winning records on the road. Two of them, the Lakers and Oklahoma City are exactly one game over the .500 mark. Utah enters this game a season-high seven games over .500 and has moved into sixth place in the West, passing Phoenix, who has a losing record of 12-16 since December 1st. The Suns have allowed an average of 109.8 points per game away from home this season. The Jazz annhilated hapless New Jersey last time out, 116-83, and are a highly profitable 21-4 ATS playing at home after playing a non-conference opponent. Take Utah.