Bruce Marshall
Hofstra at Towson
Play: Hofstra +10
After playing arguably its worst half of the season last Wednesday vs. Northeastern and digging itself a 19-point hole at halftime from which it would not recover, we're not sold on an automatic bounce-back effort from Towson. The host suddenly might not be able to depend upon transfer Gs Four McGlynn (ex-Vermont) & Mike Burwell (ex-South Florida), who were a combined 2 of 14 from floor against Huskies. Hofstra's recent efforts have been surprisingly good, thanks in part to contributions of Illinois State transfer G Zeke Upshaw (19.2 ppg), and Colonial observers suggest the undervalued Pride (5-1 vs. line last six) have the physical presence in the paint with rugged rebound machines Stephen Nwaukoni & Moussa Kane to somewhat impede Towson's bull-in-china-shop PF Jerrelle Benimon (17.9 ppg & 11.3 rpg).
Jack Jones
Utah Jazz -5½
The Sacramento Kings are in a world of hurt right now. They are without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins (22.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg), while Rudy Gay (20.1 ppg) is questionable to return tonight after missing the past three games with an Achilles injury.
To no surprise, the Kings have gone 0-3 in their last three games overall while playing without these two elite players. Making matters worse for them is that this is a tired team, which is really difficult when short-handed. Sacramento will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days Monday.
Utah, meanwhile, comes in well-rested and ready to go. This will be just its 2nd game in 6 days. The Jazz have been playing a lot better over the past month, going a respectable 6-5 straight up in their last 11 games overall. They are finally healthy, and it's making a world of difference.
Sacramento is a woeful 1-11 ATS when playing nine or more games in 14 days over the past three seasons. It is losing 92.1 to 106.8 in this spot, or by an average of 14.7 points per game. The fatigue catches up to the Kings tonight. Bet the Jazz Monday.
Red Dog Sports
College of Charleston vs. William & Mary
Play: College of Charleston +5½
William and Mary has played well lately but C of C seems to keep their games close. They were able to win at ODU last month. The Tribe of William and Mary are led by Brandon Britt and Tim Rusthoven and are off a nice comeback on Saturday but I like the underdog to stay within 5 points.
Rickie Robbins
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma State -4½
The Breakdown: The Sooners are tied with Texas for 2nd place in the Big 12 with a record of 5-2 and have reeled off three straight, including a 74-65 handling of Texas Tech Saturday. Oklahoma was in front for the bulk of the game, but the Red Raiders made a late run in the second half to close within 4 points before the comeback bid was turned away with just over five minutes remaining. The Sooners shot 50 percent from the field and hit 7 of 18 from distance, while keeping Tech to 27 of 54 from the floor and just 4 of 14 from outside the arc. Sophomore G Buddy Hield had a team-high 18 points, including 4 of 7 from downtown, and senior F Cameron Clark added 17 points. On the season, Oklahoma ranks 13th nationally with 83.8 ppg on 45.4 percent shooting. Clark leads the team with 17.0 ppg, followed by Hield at 16.7 ppg.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is in third place in the Big 12 with a record of 4-2 and comes in off an 81-75 victory over West Virginia Saturday. The Cowboys shot 44.1 percent from the field and junior F Le’Bryan Nash had a game-high 29 points to go along with 9 rebounds. Ok State was edged out on the boards 41-36 by the Mountaineers, but held them to 36.8 percent shooting and forced 15 turnovers. Senior G Markel Brown scored 15 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, while sophomore G Phil Forte added 13 points and 5 steals off the bench. Through 19 games, Ok State is averaging an 11th-ranked 84.3 ppg on 48.1 percent shooting. Sophomore G Marcus Smart leads the team with 17.1 ppg, followed by Brown at 16.5.
Rickie's Pick: The line in this matchup is currently set at -3 for Oklahoma State. Smart struggled against WVU, going 3 of 14 from the field and 0 of 6 from downtown, which can’t happen against a good team if the Cowboys expect to win. Oklahoma has proven to be one of those teams, but look for Ok State to cover behind a big game for Smart.
Bryan Power
Sacramento vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
If you're wondering why this line is so high, the Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins and possibly Rudy Gay as well. Those are their two leading scorers and with this being the second night of back to backs, I just don't like their chances against a Jazz team that's essentially been .500 after a terrible start.....
Consider that even with the awful 1-14 start, Utah is just one half-game worse than Sacramento. The Kings haven't had Cousins or Gay in the lineup the last two games and the results have been predictably bad with home losses to Indiana and Denver, though they did take the Pacers to overtime. However, this team is just woeful defensively as they allow 106.7 points per game on the road and when you're that bad on that end of the floor, its hard to keep pace when you're without 42.7 PPG, which is Cousins and Gay's combined scoring average.
Utah is off a 104-101 win over Washington here at home Saturday. While they rarely string together back to back wins, they did so around the New Year with a pair of home wins over Milwaukee and Charlotte and the situation is similar here. The Jazz won 122-101 in Sacramento the last time these two teams met and road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss, seeking revenge for a home loss are just 37.6% ATS the last five NBA seasons. Lay the points.
John Ryan
Villanova at Georgetown
Prediction: Villanova
The simulator shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by 6 or more points. Villanova survived in their OT win over Marquette and bounced back from a humiliating loss to Creighton. HC Wright has stated in the media interviews, his team needs to get better on the defensive end after allowing Creighton to shot 57% marking the highest allowed percentage in 6 seasons. They allowed 50% shooting to Marquette, BUT will find their defensive footing tonight against a weak offensive Georgetown team. The Hoyas have shot 37% over their last three games and simply do not have the personnel to matchup against Villanova for 40 minutes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-25 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2008. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VILLANOVA) that are excellent offensive team scoring >=76 PPG and are now facing an average defensive team allowing between 67 and 74 PPG and after a combined score of 165 points or more. SIM projects that Villanova will have between 40 and 44 total rebounds in this game. In past games, Villanova is a perfect 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Tony George
Villanova vs. Georgetown
Play: Villanova -5½
I was all over Creighton on a free play Saturday against GT, and I am against them tonight again. The Hoyas have 2 key injuries that account for almost 20 ppg and some rebounding and it is killing them. Enter the Wildcats high paced offense ranked 23rd in the land against a below average defense with injuries on their roster, and this number is manageable.
One of the keys here is Georgetown’s offense has been hit hard, averaging 65 ppg their last 5 against an offense that in that same timespan has averaged over 81 ppg. I do not like going with teams off an OT win the previous game, which Nova was involved in a thriller at Marquette, but in this case I think they get all over a hated rival. Nova has been money on the road recently, covering 6 out of 8, and I they get the job done tonight with allot of offense that covers the number.
Steve Janus
Suns/76ers Over 213½
No team in the NBA plays at a faster pace than the Philadelphia 76ers (102.1). The Suns aren't far behind, as they come in T-8th with the Trail Blazers at 97.9. With neither team having reason to be motivated defensively in this non-conference matchup, I look for these two teams to fly over the total.
Not only do both teams love to play up-tempo, but they don't exactly play a whole lot of defense. Phoenix comes in allowing 100.9 ppg and the 76ers are giving up a miserable 109.5 ppg. Philadelphia also ranks in the bottom six in the league in defensively efficiency. You also have to like that these two teams played in Phoenix back in late December and combined for 216 points.
The OVER is 26-14 in the 76ers last 40 home games after 1 or more consecutive losses and 22-11 in their last 33 home games after going under the total in their previous game. We also see a long-term trend where the OVER is 181-141 in the Suns L322 games vs up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game.
Jeff Alexander
Pittsburgh -4
Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a blowout victory in conference play of 20 points or more has resulted in a 32-11 ATS record since 1997 if they're up against a team that is coming off a road game where both it and its opponent scored 75 points or more. Duke has looked human on the road where it has losses to Notre Dame and Clemson. Pitt has been dominant at home where it is 12-0 this season. The Panthers are 11-3 ATS in home games played 15 games or more into the schedule under Jamie Dixon versus teams that have won at least 80% of their games. Pitt has won these contests by an average of 6.0 points, which says plenty about how tough it is on its home floor.
Dave Price
Minnesota Timberwolves -3
Minnesota came up short in Portland Saturday, but it had won a tough one at Golden State the night before. It won the first and third quarters against the Trail Blazers but lost the second and fourth quarters, which makes sense in the second game of a back-to-back. Minnesota has a day of rest on its side for this matchup, and that should prove quite beneficial as it looks to bounce back. The Timberwolves have been outstanding in bounce-back spots at 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following defeat. The T-Wolves are also on an impressive 12-3-1 ATS run versus teams from the NBA Central division. The Bulls have won 10 of their last 13 games but have benefited greatly from playing a soft schedule. The offensively-challenged Bulls (92.9 ppg) will have a tough time hanging with the explosive T-Wolves (106.8 ppg) tonight. The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the Western Conference and just 24-44 ATS at home the last two seasons.
Joe Gavazzi
Pitt -4
Duke enters as underdog in the role of hunter, trailing Pitt by a game in the ACC standings. Widely criticized for their lack of defense and rebounding, the Blue Devils have played their best basketball of the year in the last 2 weeks. Duke enters on a 4 game win streak having covered the last 3 games by a total of 55 points, while allowing just 57 PPG. Tonight, however, they must face PG Robinson of Pitt, the nation’s best point guard, as measured by assist/TO margin. Panthers have the ability to match the Duke intensity, a deeper roster, and the better defense. Playing at The Pete, where Pitt is 59-11 SU 3+Y and 12-0 this year, won’t hurt. Strong preference for the hunted on their undefeated home court.
Bruce Marshall
Bruins at Islanders
Pick: Over
There has been an unmistakable pattern in recent Islanders games, with goals flying in from all angles. Indeed, 40 of them have been scored in the last five games, all "over" results, the same as in 7 of their last 8 and 9 of their last 11 games. New York has also blown 2-0 leads in each of the last two games, including a 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday. Meanwhile, Boston has been finding the back of the net a lot lately, including six times on Saturday at Philadelphia featuring two goals and two assists from still-productive veteran Jarome Iginla.
AC Dinero
Villanova vs. Georgetown
Play: Georgetown +6.5
Arguably the best rivalry in the new Big East, Villanova comes in off a nice bounce back win at Marquette to take on a Georgetown team that is struggling badly, losers of their past 4 games. They will be short handed tonight, and probably the rest of the season with suspensions and injuries. Basically, their season may be on the line, outside of winning the Big East tournament, in this game. Look for them to play Nova tough at home in this game
SPORTS WAGERS
BROOKLYN -3½ over Toronto
The Raptors have not played in many big games this year or any year for that matter for a long, long time. Toronto is in first place in the Atlantic, just 1½-games ahead of Brooklyn. The Raps have a chance here to put a little more space between themselves and the Nets but we don`t see that happening, not without DeMar DeRozan and probably not with him either. This is a role the Raptors are unaccustomed to being in.
The Nets are red-hot. This team was a big favorite to win the Atlantic but a slow start resulted in the Nets falling far behind in the division. However, 10 wins in their last 11 games has seen the Nets shoot up the standings and the interesting part about that is their only loss over that occurred in Toronto on January 11. The Raps were a 9½-point choice in that game and covered but only because the game set up perfectly for Toronto that day. You see, Brooklyn had just defeated the Heat in OT the night before. It was also the Nets fifth game in seven days after defeating Golden State as well as Oklahoma State. It was a huge letdown spot and the oddsmakers knew it. The Nets are a cheap price here because once again they are in a letdown spot after yesterday’s emotional win in the return of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to Boston. We’re not buying that argument. This game for Brooklyn is of far more importance than yesterday’s. These are veteran guys that have played in every situation and this one is much different than the one back in Toronto. The Nets were exhausted back then but they still had a 10-point lead late in the third quarter before they ran out of gas. Brooklyn figures to close it out in much better form here. DeRozen is a huge part of the Raps and with him in the lineup this number would be about the exact same or a half point higher. That’s something we can take advantage of.
Pass CBB
Harry Bondi
OKLAHOMA (+4.5) over Oklahoma State
All the trends and history are with Oklahoma tonight and so are we. Oklahoma State has not won in Norman since 2004, that's 9 straight losses in Norman for the Cowboys and Oklahoma has covered the last 4 of 5 and the last six out of 7 meetings between these bitter rivals. Oklahoma also comes into this game playing their best basketball of the year. The five Sooner starters are all averaging double figures in points and are shooting close to 50 percent from the field over the last 13 games. Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart went off the deep end on Saturday when he got in foul trouble which severely limited his minutes and production but we expect a great effort out of him tonight but it won't be enough as these two are really evenly matched with Oklahoma State averaging 84 and Oklahoma averaging 83.8 points per game. Home court is the difference for the 10th straight year. Take the Sooners over the Cowboys.