Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 28

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas vs. ColumbusFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As expected, the Columbus Blue Jackets haven't looked very good so far. After opening the year with a surprising 3-2 win at Nashville (as a +150 dog), they've lost four straight games, getting outscored 16-6 in the process. Monday sees them starting the week in a situation that has been most unfavorable the past two seasons & has already resulted in one blowout loss here in 2013....
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That situation I'm speaking of is the club's 0-14 record when coming off a division loss by one goal. Just last week saw the Blue Jackets continue this putrid run with a 5-1 loss at Phoenix. At the time, the team was coming off a 3-2 loss to Detroit in their home opener two days prior. They've since been shut out by Colorado (4-0) and then lost again Saturday, at home, to Chicago, 3-2, which would land them in the situation I spoke of above as they get set to face the Stars tonight.
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Dallas has had no issues winning in Columbus previously, winning 15 of their last 22 visits, including both last season. Following back to back close one-goal losses to Chicago & St. Louis, two of the top teams in the league, the Stars will be welcoming this drop in class. Note Dallas led in both of those contests and will be getting some key players back for tonight's game. Most notably could be the return of All-Star Jamie Benn. Look for the road team to roll here.

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas vs. ColumbusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Jackets saw two of their first three games total at least six goals this season, but since then, we've seen their last two contests reach only four and five goals. While the betting majority seems set on playing this bottom-feeding squad 'over' the total (I was admittedly in that group on Saturday), from what I've seen, I don't think we're going to see them get involved in a lot of high-scoring affairs. This is a team that certainly lacks offensive punch, but does play a gritty, hard-nosed style that should lead to plenty of 3-2 results. Sergei Bobrovsky has given the Jackets an upgrade in goal after a disastrous 2011-12 season, and he should be back between the pipes after Steve Mason got the nod against the Blackhawks on Saturday. The Stars are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Blues on Saturday - a game in which they suffered a number of defensive breakdowns. You can be sure they'll be focused on tightening things up in that deparment, and this is an ideal matchup to do just that. Offensively, the Stars have sputtered since scoring four goals in their season-opener. They've potted a grand total of seven goals over their last four contests, and I have them topping out at three in this spot.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. LouisvilleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Turns out Quick Rick and his Cardinals couldn’t stand prosperity. After ascending to its first No. 1 regular season ranking in program history, Louisville promptly came a cropper, failing to score in the final 1:58 of a 70-68 loss to Syracuse before a record home crowd of 22,814. Disappointing? Yes, but nothing compared to what came next: A 73-64 setback at Villanova where the Cards collapsed as 11.5-point favorites, and then again another loss as 5.5-point chalk at Georgetown on Saturday. Yikes! For openers, the Panthers are dead set on exacting some triple revenge of their own against the ‘Ville, who swept both meetings with Pitt last year. Jamie Dixon’s black cats have held their own in this series of late when fueled by revenge, going 4-1 ATS the last five and 3-0 ATS as underdogs. Pittsburgh also owns a strong 16-4 ATS mark as a conference dog with revenge, including 10-1 ATS if the Panthers’ win percentage is .769 or greater, and 5-0 ATS versus a greater-than .850 opponent. Those numbers look downright overpowering compared to Louie’s 0-3 ATS effort at home this season against greater-than .667 foes and the Cardinals’ lousy 0-3 ATS mark as chalk after tangling with the Hoyas. The straight-shooting Panthers (49.1 Offensive Field Goal Percentage) also clean the glass with aplomb, holding down the No. 12 spot in the nation in Rebound Margin (+8.1 net RPG) – and that makes for a deadly combo. Our database supplies the clincher: Louisville is an astonishingly awful 7-25 ATS in its last 32 appearances as a favorite of 6 or more points versus a greater-than .667 adversary. U of L fans get more ‘Bum than Yum’ again as the Cardinals fall once more at the KFC Center. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston vs. CarolinaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If series trends mean anything, then the host Hurricanes are a very live underdog tonight in Raleigh after sweeping the Bruins in all four meetings last season, outscoring Boston 14-5 in the process. Carolina has also gotten back on track after a slow start, beating capable Buffalo twice in a row, and GK Cam Ward (likely between the posts tonight) fashioned a 1.25 GAA against Boston last term. We think it's unlikely that the Bruins continue to kill power plays in the manner they have done thus far (foes are 0 for 17 against them in the early going this season), although Boston has had its own issues lately with the man advantage, converting only 1 of 17 power plays of its own. Word is that Bruins coach Claude Julien is also likely to sit number one keeper Tuukka Rask, who's been sharp in the early going. The surging Hurricanes can take advantage tonight.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas vs. ColumbusFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After winning their opening game of the season, the Columbus Blue Jackets have lost four in a row. They lost by a score of 3-2 against the Blackhawks on Saturday, however they had a goal called off that probably should have counted.
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Columbus will try to put that behind them tonight, as they take on the Dallas Stars. Dallas is also coming off a loss on Saturday, without Jaromir Jagr, they fell to St. Louis by a score of 4-3
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Dallas isn't exactly the hockey powerhouse they were a decade ago, but they are still a capable defensive team, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Stars make a run for the playoffs. The Jackets aren't a serious contender for the playoffs, they finished last season with fewer points than any team in the league, and in the off-season they lost their best player Rick Nash to the Rangers. That being said, they have been competitive early in the season, and they have been getting great goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky, who is 2-0 with a 1.44 GAA in his career versus Dallas.
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The Jackets have earned points in two of their first four games, however they have been outscored 12-3, losing their last three. The Jackets are a pathetic 0-14 on the powerplay so far this year, but Dallas is below average killing penalties with a 77% kill rate.

Stars goalie Kari Lehtonen has won each of his last three starts versus Columbus, posting a 1.67 GAA in those games.
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The Blue Jackets will be in desperation mode at home today after losing four in a row, and they are likely to play a tight checking game, leaving little room for the Stars to create chances. The under has cashed a winning ticket in eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, and all signs point to another low scoring affair here on Monday.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Rockets at Utah JazzFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Utah JazzFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Home court advantage is huge in this matchup, and we only need to see the series history for proof. The home team is 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in this series over the last five meetings, including 2-0 SU and ATS this year with both Houston and Utah both winning and covering on their home court. The Jazz won here in Utah 102-91 as a six-point home favorite back in November, scoring triple-digits despite shooting only 40% from the field. Utah is a strong home team anyway, going 15-4 straight up and a strong 13-6 at the betting window. Lay the points.

Jimmy BoydFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn Nets -9FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a good matchup for the Nets here today as they take on the Magic. Brooklyn is a solid home team that is 16-7 on their home floor and winning by 4.1 ppg. Orlando on the other hand is just 6-13 on the road and losing by 4.5 ppg.
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The Nets are weak at defending the 3-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot 37.3% on the year from behind the arc, but Orlando is making just 32.3% of their 3-point attempts away from home so I don't think they can exploit the Nets defensive weakness.
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Orlando is a great free throw shooting team but they don't draw a lot of fouls. I think they will have even more troubles getting to the line today against a Nets team that only allows 19 free throw attempts against teams that normally shoot 22.

Both of these teams are struggling. Orlando has lost five in a row while the Nets are coming off two straight double digit blowout losses. I trust the better team to get back on track here tonight.
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Orlando is 8-18 ATS the last two years when playing with double revenge and you want to fade teams off a double digit home loss versus their opponent when they are also off a close home loss by three points or less. This system is 74-37 (66.7%) since 1997.

Brad Diamond

Delaware +4½

Drexel takes this home game with the Blue Hens 4-3 in the CAA, while Delaware boards at 3-3 in conference. Drexel is coming off a 68-57 win over Georgia State on Saturday driven by shooting almost 48% from the field. The Panthers helped by shooting 27.7%. The Blue Hens are off a 64-50 loss to James Madison Wednesday. They have lost three straight to the aforementioned, Northeastern and Towson. Delaware has been out rebounded in each of those losses with a -18 versus Madison. Drexel has taken the last 4/5 in the series SU. With their current three game win streak it looks as though you will be paying a little too much for the right to support the favorite. In fact, we feel the Blue Hens can win this SU. The underdog in the series is on a solid 13-5-1 ATS run…Wire Job!

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. LouisvilleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals recent struggles - they have lost three in a row - have brought this one way down. Louisville is far from a perfect team but I have a hard time not expecting them to beat a Pittsburgh team that nobody is impressed with. The losing will stop and the chances of it being a nailbiter seem slim given how poor Pitt has been on the road. If Louisville plays good defense and hits their free throws then they can win by 10 easy, which is probably what most would have made this game a week ago. If you don’t agree with the side play think about the under - it has been 6-1 over the last 7 in Louisville.

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets

In this game we note that All non conference dogs with Same season home loss revenge are on a 5-20 spread run. The Pacers are 2-5 straight up and ats vs Northwest division teams and are a paltry 1-6 straight up and to the spread losing by 15 points per game as a road dog if they shot 50% or higher as a road dog in their last game, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more. Denver is a solid 17-3 with 15 spread wins vs Central division teams, 10-3 ats vs teams who allow 91 points or less and 8-1 at home winning by 17 points per game off a home game where they shot 50% or higher vs an opponent that also shot 50% or higher. Look for Denver to cover.

Jim Feist

Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies where shocked at home on Sunday, losing to the New Orleans Hornets, 91-83. The Grizzlies have the top scoring defense in the league, allowing just 89.2 ppg this season. Still, the offense does sputter at times as it did on Sunday. But a trip to Philly might be just what the doctor ordered for a tired Grizzlies club. The Sixers are not one of the better scoring teams in the NBA, in fact they rank just 27th (93.3 ppg). Philly has also lost seven of their last 10 games heading into tonight. The Sixers don't do well against the West, evidenced by their 4-13 ATS mark the last 17 times against the other division. Meanwhile, Memphis has a 11-5 ATS record against the East. And if you are worried about the Grizzlies playing on no rest, well they are 34-16-1 the last 51 times they have been in this spot. Take the Grizzlies here on Monday.

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh at Louisville
Pick: Pittsburgh

The Big East is yet another example of how tough life can be in any of the deeper conferences. It's just one tough battle after another for these teams, and the result has been a boon for bettors recognizing what's taking place. If you want to find out for yourself, research how competitively priced (single digit) road underdogs have fared to date in the Big East. The numbers are pretty amazing. Look for the trend to continue tonight. Pittsburgh has found a little rhythm lately. Louisville has a load of talent, but right now the Cardinals are simply out of synch. They're going to get it back together soon enough in all likelihood, but hopefully that won't be tonight. I'll look for the typical Big East duel to the wire, and I'll therefore opt for the Panthers plus the points.

SPORTS WAGERSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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DENVER -5½ over IndianaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's been a season of peaks and valleys for the Pacers. They started slowly with just 10 wins in their first 21 games and then heated up by winning 16 of their next 21 games. They're in the midst of a down slide again with just three wins in their past seven and two of those victories coming against the 11-32 Bobcats. Indiana will now play the final game of a four-game trip and its seventh road game in past eight overall. This is not the best place to wrap up a grueling trip.
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The Nuggets have been light's out at home. After destroying Sacramento by 28 on Saturday, Denver is now 17-3 at the Pepsi Center. They've also won 24 straight at home when scoring more than 100 points and against this tired bunch, they should have little trouble replicating a similar output. Denver has put up 100 or more against Indiana in 10 of the past 11 games between the two clubs and in eight of those nine they scored 110 or more. The Nuggets also boast the league's #1 ranked rebounding numbers. With everything working in their favor, this one lines up nicely for the host to continue its home court supremacy.
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CAROLINA +112 over BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Bruins are obviously a solid club. In this early going, they're one of just four teams without a regulation loss and they appear primed to take another run at the Cup. This isn't about wagering against them. This is about recognizing another team in the East that cannot be ignored.
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You might remember back in the 2005/'06 season when the Hurricanes came out of nowhere, jumped out to a quick start and went on to win the Stanley Cup. That group, like this one, was assembled by Jim Rutherford and this year's edition of the Hurricanes is reminiscent of that one. Carolina is loaded with talent, both young and experienced. They're quick, tough and solid from top to bottom. On most nights, to beat them, the opposition is going to have to be at their best, especially in Carolina, as the Sabres and Bolts have already found out. Tampa won in Carolina but they were clearly the second best team on the ice that night. In its first loss of the year in Florida, Carolina again dominated play but Cam Ward was yanked after allowing four goals on 12 shots in the first period. The Canes have been the better team in all four of their games so far. With just a 2-2 record and both wins coming against a Buffalo team that was the first to lose to Washington, the Hurricanes are unheralded. It's not going to last long so we’ll get the benefit of prices like this one while we can.
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Colorado/EDMONTON over 5½ +112FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Avalanche have played Minnesota, Los Angeles and San Jose, three very solid defensive clubs. When Colorado played Columbus, they scored four times. They'll now get a taste of something they haven't experienced yet, that being a run and gun offense that just keeps coming at you.
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The Oilers have played four games with two going over the total. The two that went under were against Vancouver and Los Angeles. In that game against the Kings, there were 17 minor penalties called and Edmonton went 1-9 on the PP and the Kings went 0-8. Edmonton has yet to score more than three goals in any game and with four games under its belt and with an offense as creative as this one, an outburst is forthcoming. The Avs have been shorthanded six or more times in each of their four games. Edmonton’s power play numbers should get a boost here and may need it because the Oilers continue to allow far too many scoring chances.

Pass CBB

JR O'DonnellFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana +5.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes we will stand in front of the Denver Nuggets who have tore up the league the last couple of ball games.... how about 121 last game vs the Sac Kings ... The Nuggets are 16-3 at Pepsi Center this season and you Jr O are playing the Visitor...The Pacers slow the game down and the Denver Nuggets do not do well in a half court game.. The Pacers play DEFENSE...The Pacers allow only 89.9 points per game to rank among the league leaders,. Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference & Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.