Joe Gavazzi
Louisville -6
Pitt 10th year HC Dixon strongly believes that the numbers reflect his team’s success. He is continually preaching rebounding, assists, TOs, and shot selection. He uses the numbers to back up his point. Following an injury plagued season of last, in which his team failed to make the NCAA for the first time in 10 years, his Panthers are on a mission. Using his entire ten man roster, he has used his depth with positive results. With first year players like ( C ) Adams and PG Robinson, the Pitt numbers reinforce their 17-4 SU record. On defense, they allow just 55/39/31. They feature a +8.4 rebound margin, a positive TO margin, and a 17.6 / 10.4 assist / TO ratio, among the best in the country. They are shooting 49% from the field, a tribute to their solid shot selection. They enter off four consecutive victories, vs Villanova, UConn, Prov, and on Saturday vs DePaul, 93-55. In that 38 point romp, they handed out 23 assists and snared 54 rebounds for a +25 margin on the boards. This is Dixon’s best role, where he is 42-21 ATS (67%) as dog TO -1. On the other bench is former #1 Louisville, who enters on an 0-3 SUATS slide, which they failed to cover by 38 points. Those games were all in the favorite role, against Syracuse, Villanova, and G’town. Pitino’s numbers are nearly as good as Pitt’s. On defense Louisville allows 58/40/31, force 19.5 TOs, have a +5 rebound margin, and a positive assist to TO ratio. As a result, they take the court tonight playing with great urgency. And at a price that is reduced by a field goal from where this line would have been before the respective streaks of these two. Home favorites following consecutive outright losses as road favorites, are 67-33 ATS (67%) L15Y. We will shade the value side with Louisville in this, to bounce back at home, behind the coaching of Pitino and the veteran guard play of Siva and Smith.