Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 30

Sam Martin

Pittsburgh at West Virginia
Prediction: West Virginia

Pittsburgh snapped an eight-game losing streak with back-to-back victories on their home court against Providence and Georgetown, but winning on the road is a much different task, especially against a very good team like the Mountaineers. West Virginia is a solid 10-1 on their home court, and they'll be in a bad mood here after nearly knocking off Syracuse on the road this past weekend (lost by two points and had an extremely bad call go against them late). Pittsburgh just happens to be the team that WVU can take their frustration out on, and we look for the Mountaineers to explode here in a statement victory!

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Detroit Pistons

When the Pistons travel to Milwaukee to meet the Bucks Monday night Detroit will take the court with revenge from a 102-93 loss suffered here 18 days ago. Meanwhile the Bucks enter off an upset win over the Lakers knowing they are 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS as favorites after taking on Los Angeles.. With the Pistons 12-6 SU and 1-3-5 ATS of late in this series, and Milwaukee just 3-6 ATS in games against sub .550 foes this season, look for the upset here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Rob Vinciletti

Northern Colorado vs. Northern Arizona
Play: Northern Colorado -3

Northern Colorado has won 24 of 31 vs losing teams and 7 of 8 off 3 ats losses. When they play teams who score 65 or less they have won 7 of the last ten. Tonight they take on a Northern Arizona team that is among the worst in the nation with a 325 RPI Ranking. They have lost 10 of 13 to teams that are ranked 151 or higher in the RPI, they are 0-4 straight up and ats with revenge, have lost 13 of 14 as a dog, 0-6 off a loss and 2-8 straight up and ats the last 15 years as a home dog of 3 or less. Look for Northern Colorado to move to 8-1 off 3+ road games.

Jim Feist

Bulls vs Wizards
Pick: Over

Chicago playing back-to-back here on Monday after a tough loss at Miami on Sunday. While the Bulls trailed the entire game at Miami, they did have a shot to tie the game very late but came up short in the loss to the Heat, 97-93. When we think of the Bulls we usually think low scoring, defensive games. However, this year's club has been putting some big numbers on the board, scoring over 100 points in four of their last six games and eight times on the season. In fact, the Bulls are 10th in the league in scoring with a 97 ppg average. They are also the best rebounding team in the NBA (45.4 rpg) and still play great defense, ranked 2nd (87 ppg allowed). Meanwhile, the Wizards defense will have its hands full here on Monday. Washington has the 25th worst scoring defense (98.3 ppg) so I fully expect the Bulls to break that century mark again on Monday. I'm a bit surprised we get a low total here around 190. So can the Wizards get 90 or more points? In their last eight games the Wizards have scored over 100 points in four contests and under 90 in just two. I like this game OVER on Monday as the Bulls will look to take out some of Sunday's frustrations on the Wizards. I'm going OVER between the Bulls and Wizards on Monday.

SPORTS WAGERS

TEXAS +108 over Missouri

The Tigers come in as the second ranked team in the land while the Longhorns are currently unranked. That's according to the official AP Poll, the most widely recognized of them all. However, there are many polls and one could argue all day about which is the most accurate. These polls don't have Texas in the top 25, yet there are a couple of highly regarded “number crunchers” that insist otherwise. For instance Ken Pomeroy has the Longhorns ranked as high as #20 based on its strength of schedule, which is ranked 13th toughest in the nation while the Tigers schedule ranks 128th toughest. Big difference and when you consider that Texas will play its third road game in past four and third on the road in nine days, it makes the Longhorns even more appealing. Make no mistake, Missouri is a strong team but they really haven't had a difficult schedule, they're a poor rebounding team and they've only played five road games all year. Texas is as battle tested as anyone. They've lost four of five but losses to #7 Baylor, #22 K-State and #4 Kansas are nothing to hang your head over. Against #4 Kansas they lost by three and at K-State they lost by four. On Saturday, the Longhorns lost by five at Baylor. These two played at Mizzou just over two weeks ago. The Tigers won by nine but Texas outrebounded them 41-30 and lost because the Tigers hit 10-21 from long range and got to the line seven more times. Now the venue switches to the Frank Erwin Center, where the Longhorns are 12-1 with only loss coming to #4 Kansas. Mizzou has played just five road games all season and they're just 3-2 in those contests. They lost at Oklahoma State and at K-State and it surely doesn't get easier here. Play: Texas +108 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA -7 over Orlando

Before the season began there were many questions about how the Magic were going to perform with an unhappy Dwight Howard setting the mood. A 12-5 start quashed any negativity but it now appears as things could blow up at any moment after three straight losses and four losses in five games. It started with the Magic blowing a 25-point lead against the Celts. They lost at home yesterday by 21 to Indiana. Now Orlando will play its sixth game since last Monday and fourth game in five days. Losing takes its toll and when your star played has been wanting out for months, it's magnified even more. This is about the worst spot possible for Orlando. They beat the 76ers all three times last season and they'll come in here as a fragile and uninspired bunch. Philly must be licking its chops for a chance to get at this team that has not only beaten them three straight but in eight of the past nine meetings. The 76ers are playing great ball and they'ren tei much healthier where it counts most, that being in their collective minds. Play: Philadelphia -7 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Portland +110 over UTAH

A well rested and superior Trail Blazers team offers up much more value than a young and overvalued Jazz team. Utah went on an unlikely run that saw them run its record to 9-4 after opening the year 1-3. They've gone 2-2 in its last four and they're coming off a win on Saturday. In other words, their stock has not dropped much at all and that allows us to take advantage of the wrong side being favored. Utah's last three games are more revealing of who they really are. They lost by 15 to Dallas, they lost at home to the Raptors and they're coming off a narrow three-point win at home over the Kings. The Jazz have some scoring with Al Jefferson, Devin Harris, Paul Millsap and C.J. Miles but all are suspect defensively and this team is oing to take its lumps because of it. The Taril Blazers are a fundamentally sound team that is so tough to beat. They work hard and they play hard on every possession. They come in just a game ahead of the Jazz but they've won three of four and Marcus Camby is coming off a 20 rebound game. The man is a monster in the middle when he's healthy. Bottom line is that the Jazz are much more flawed than the Trail Blazers. For a young team like the Jazz to beat a veteran and more talented team, the situation has to be in their favor and this one is not. Play: Portland +110 (Risking 2 units).

MTi Sports

Spurs at Grizzlies
Prediction: Under

The Grizzlies are 0-7 OU (-12.3 ppg) at home after two losses in which Rudy Gay played more than 40 minutes in each and the Spurs are 0-7 OU (-14.4 ppg) with no rest after a loss in which Tony Parker played fewer than 30 minutes. Also, the Grizzlies are 0-7 OU (-14.6 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed less than 40% from the field and 0-5 OU (-12.8 ppg) after a game on the road in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. Take these two UNDER.

Lenny Del Genio

Pistons at Bucks
Play: Under

Even this low number is too high for these two Central Division rivals. The Pistons average just 81.4 PPG on the road (where they are 1-9 straight up), a big reason they are 9-1 Under away from home. That includes 7-0 if they have revenge. The Bucks are 22-8 Under in the home favorite role.

Vegas Experts

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies

The Spurs are coming off a very tough loss against Dallas after their starters were pulled down 18 and the reserves came in and led a huge comeback forcing overtime, but ended up losing the game 101-100. Memphis had the night off and are due for a nice win as they are coming off a tough road trip losing their last three games against Phoenix, LA Clippers and Portland. This is also a revenge matchup for Memphis as they got beat on the road 95-82 back in December and plan to come back and get their revenge tonight with a nice home win and they have done well in that situation with a 24-10 ATS mark revenging a road loss to an opponent. Memphis is 6-1 ATS against the Spurs at home over the last three seasons and the Spurs have only won two of ten road games, covering only three of the ten. Memphis is 30-15 ATS as a home favorite and they will cover another easy matchup tonight.

Matt Fargo

Princeton vs. Pennsylvania
Play: Pennsylvania -2

The biggest rivalry in the Ivy League continues tonight with Princeton heading to Philadelphia to take on the Quakers at the Palestra. It has been a very quiet month for the Tigers as they have played only four games in all of January and have not played a game in 16 days due to exams. They are 3-1 in January but any sort of rhythm has been lost because of the time off and this is not a good time for that. This is just the second time since 1996 that these teams have played in January. While Penn has seen limited action in January as well, it has played six games and is coming off a big win in its last game nine days ago. The Quakers defeated Big Five rival St. Josephs to make it three straight victories as well as making it four wins in their last five home games. Penn is off to a 2-0 start in the Ancient Eight and after dominating this series for a while, Penn has fallen the last five meetings against the Tigers. With this being the best team over that span, it will be payback time. The Quakers should have a significant edge on the defensive side of the ball. Princeton is shooting only 42.4 percent on the season while Penn has held 12 of its 19 opponents to 45 percent shooting or less from the floor including seven at 40 percent or lower. This is a big improvement from last year when the Quakers held just 14 of their 28 opponents below 45 percent shooting, and only eight below 40 percent. Princeton shot 48.8 percent from the floor at the Palestra last year so Penn is much better off now. The Quakers are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a game where they covered the spread. Penn falls into a great situation as well as we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against an opponent that is coming off a road win. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1997. We take advantage of the short number with the home team.

Bryan Power

Orlando @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia -7

Orlando just plain stinks right now. They've lost four of five, three of those coming by 20 or more and the other saw them blow a 27-point lead at home. The last three games have seen them miss the pointspread by more than 70 points! One of those losses came Friday where they scored just 67 points to New Orleans, an abysmal showing. Last night they lost at home to Indiana outright by 21. This stunning slide is not likely to come to a halt this evening in the City of Brotherly Love where they'll find a Sixers squad that has gone 10-2 ATS in this building w/ an average margin of victory by greater than 16 points per game. Orlando is 7-21 ATS on the road off back to back losses by 10 or more points.

Sean Murphy

Minnesota @ Houston
PICK: Minnesota +6.5

The T'Wolves were outclassed by the Rockets on their home floor last week, dropping a 107-92 decision. That was arguably Minnesota's worst game this month, so there's no question it will be up for the rematch tonight.

Keep in mind, the T'Wolves have actually played better on the road this season, where they're 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS. They've notched quality road wins over the Clippers and Mavericks, while also taking the Hawks down to the wire in a two-point loss.

A much weaker Minnesota squad walked into Houston and won 112-108 last February.

The Rockets are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over the Wizards and Knicks, and although they're off to a terrific start this season, they're still vulnerable, as we saw in last week's home loss to the Bucks.

Houston doesn't have a great deal of margin for error right now. Kevin Martin continues to battle a heel injury, and is questionable for Monday's game.

With a pair of starters, Chandler Parsons and Kyle Lowry, struggling to regain their scoring touch from earlier in the season, the Rockets have had to rely on bench production and strong defensive play. I'm just not convinced those are two areas where they can continue to thrive.

This is a typical flat spot for the Rockets, facing a team they just handled easily on the road last week, and doing so prior to a showdown with the Spurs in San Antonio on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the T'Wolves will be eager to erase the memory of last week's blowout loss, not to mention last night's missed opportunity at home against the Lakers.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Detroit Pistons +7.5

If 4 straight losses, including a 21-point defeat in Philadelphia Saturday, aren't enough motivation, a 9-point loss in Milwaukee Jan. 12 should light a fire under the Pistons.

Andrew Bogut, who is arguably Milwaukee's most valuable player, was present in the first meeting, but he won't be in the lineup tonight after fracturing his left ankle. That certainly bodes well for the Pistons, who are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in Milwaukee. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Pistons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, and the Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Detroit may come up a little short in its revenge attempt, but I like its chances of keeping this one within the number.

Jack Jones

Orlando Magic +7.5

The Orlando Magic are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a big underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers. The Magic have lost three straight coming in, which is the reason they are getting overlooked here. This is still one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

I look for the Magic to right the ship tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers. Orlando has played well on the road this year, going 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS away from home. They have had Philly's number and it's simply not a good match-up for the 76ers. The Magic are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Philly.

This play falls into a system that is 29-11 (72.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. The Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Magic Monday.