Steve Janus
Orlando Magic +7.5
My money is on the Orlando Magic to snap out of their recent funk and give the 76ers everything they can handle tonight. Orlando is simply too strong of a team to continue to play as bad as they have the last few nights. Two straight 20-point losses tends to be a pretty good wake-up call. Orlando matches up well with the 76ers, as they have won seven of the last eight in the series, including each of the last four in Philadelphia.
Not to say the 76ers aren't a good team, but they are extremely overvalued. Philadelphia has played the easiest schedule of any team in the league. If you look at who they have beat, the best team they have beat is Atlanta. The 76ers really don't have the size to matchup with Howard inside, and there's a good chance they will be without starting center Spencer Hawes, who has missed the last seven games with a Achilles injury.
Orlando is 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
King Creole
Minnesota +6.5
Quick turnaround 'in-season' REVENGE for the visiting T'Wolves on Monday night. They hosted Houston seven days ago... and lost by a score of 107 to 92.
First off, two ATS patterns that apply to THIS season...
6-1 ATS this year: All MONDAY underdogs of > 6 pts playing with NO Rest (MIN)... and off a SU loss.
12-3 ATS this year: All Conference teams playing of a SU home favorite loss (MIN)... vs any opponent off BB SU wins (Hou). In the last two weeks, these teams have gone a PERFECT 8-0 ATS!
It sure was weird yesterday seeing Minnesota actually FAVORED over the La Lakers. They did NOT get the win (lost 106-101).
19-4 ATS since 2005: All NBA road teams playing off a SU favorite loss to the La Lakers (MIN). In the last 6 seasons, these teams have gone 12-1 ATS versus all Conference opponents (like Houston).
Since we queried Minnesota's last opponent, it;s only fair to check the other side. Houston beat the NY Knicks on Saturday night 97 to 84...
0-7 ATS last 12 months: All NBA home teams playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT home win against the NY Knicks (Hou).
That win was the 2nd straight BLOW-OUT for the hot Rockets (also beat Washington 103-76).
3-17 ATS last 12 months: All NBA home teams playing off BB SU wins of 13 > pts each (Hou).
Tonight is the Rocket's LAST game of a 4+ homestand....
0-5 ATS last 2 seasons: All Conference favs of < 9 pts... in the LAST of a 4-game homestand (Hous)... and also off BB SU wins.
Tradeline Sports
N Colorado at N Arizona
Play: Under 140
Playing to the low side of a College Basketball Over-Under on teams (Northern Arizona) coming off a road loss against a league foe against an opponent (Northern Colorado) that allowed 80 points or more in their last game, a loss, against a league foe, when the oddsmakers set the total between 140 and 149.5 points. The trend is an amazing 31-6 over the last 5 seasons and is a perfect 3-0 this college campaign. Play UNDER the total of 140
Rocketman S
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -6
San Antonio is only 2-8 SU on the road this year where they are allowing 102.3 points per game. Memphis is 6-2 SU at home this year where they are scoring 106 points per game this season. Memphis is 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs San Antonio the past 3 years. Spurs are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Western Conference. Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Spurs are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss. Spurs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Southwest. Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Spurs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Spurs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite. Grizzlies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. Grizzlies are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Southwest. Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Grizzlies are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. Grizzlies are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Grizzlies are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following a ATS loss. Grizzlies are 45-22-1 ATS in their last 68 vs. Western Conference. Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Spurs are 1-10-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Memphis. We'll recommend a small play on Memphis tonight!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Northern Arizona +3
I like the NAU Lumberjacks to end their lengthy losing streak this evening. They have won 5 of their last 6 at home against Northern Colorado. The Lumberjacks were buried at Sacramento State in their most recent game, but they have a winning record at home on the season and are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Take Northern Arizona.
Black Widow
1* New Orleans Hornets +12
The Miami Heat are in a huge letdown spot Monday following their biggest game of the season thus far Sunday. Miami beat the Chicago Bulls 97-93 on National TV. The Bulls are their biggest contenders in the East. Look for the Heat to relax enough to let the Hornets cover this inflated number. New Orleans will be very motivated to face James, Wade and company, while Miami will have a very hard time getting up for the Hornets. New Orleans is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Hornets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take the Hornets and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Texas +2
The Longhorns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Tigers are 18-40 ATS in their last 58 road games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Tigers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Texas. Take Texas.
Scott Delaney
Your free winner tonight is out of the NBA, as I'm playing the Portland Trail Blazers in Salt Lake City against the Utah Jazz. Yes, as much as I've become fond of playing the Jazz in spot situations at home this season, I love the Blazers in this Northwest Division rivalry tonight, as they should win this game.
Portland has won three straight meetings, it comes into this meeting having won three of four both on the wood and at the window and even though Oklahoma City has been sprinting away in this division race since the start of the season, this is still one of the toughest divisions in the NBA.
This game tonight is a battle for third place, and I'm confident the Blazers will use confidence from last season, when they won both visits to Utah. I'm sure they're looking forward to improving on their 3-7 road record.
We have the 9th and 10th best scoring offenses in the league, so I have to defer to the defensive rankings, and that's where I see Portland has the 10th best D in the league while Utah checks in at No. 21.
Checking the betting numbers, the Blazers are on ATS runs of 4-0 versus the Northwest and 4-1 in Western Conference play. On the other hand, the Jazz are in on ATS slides of 6-13 as the home chalk, 10-25 after a straight-up win and 1-4 overall.
Take the Blazers tonight.
4♦ PORTLAND
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Thunder has been off since Friday, and they catch the Clippers having just played and won in Denver last night.
Los Angeles is certainly an improved outfit, but after having to play at altitude last night in a tough one, I think they will come up a little empty tonight against one of the upper-echelon clubs in the NBA.
Oklahoma City has won four in a row, and they come into La-La-Land having covered eight of their last ten games overall. The Thunder has also won three of the last five series meetings, and five of the last eight overall against the Clips.
The Clippers are definitely improved, but they are not ready just yet to take that next step up the ladder and knock off a team like the Thunder.
Lay the small road chalk with Oklahoma City tonight.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
13-5 Free Play roll! For today's Freebie I'm siding with Orlando plus the points at Philadelphia. I know what you're thinking: "if the Magic can lose by 21 to the Pacers last night, then they must be in for another ass-whipping tonight at the 76ers, right?" WRONG. This is still a very talented Magic team, and one that is facing a very favorable match up from the standpoint of Dwight Howard in this one.
Guys, who the hell is going to cover Howard? Hawes is still dealing with an achilles issue, and Battie is a joke at this point in his career. Given free reign, the Magic's offense can only get better when their bigman dominates, like he will in this match up. I mean at least Boston had Garnett, New Orleans had Okafor, Indiana had Hibbert, but the 76ers have no one. They're going to have to double team constantly, which is going to leave a ton of holes in their usually lockdown defense.
On the flip side, the Magic's defense has remained decent, allowing 92 ppg over their L5 games. The good news is the 76ers aren't a particularly good offensive team, scoring about 93 ppg over the same 5-game span. Given those numbers, I find it hard to believe we see Philly cover this bloated number. The public is overreacting to the recent losses (and the Nelson injury), pushing this number to its current position.
Finally, Orlando has had a history of success against the 76ers, going 8-2 ATS in their L10 meetings. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS in their L5 as a dog, and 6-2 ATS in their L8 off a SU loss. It may be tough to back the Magic at this point, but that's precisely when we're getting the best value. All in all, take Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia Monday.
2♦ ORLANDO
Matt Rivers
Now let's get to a comp play winner for Monday, and I am liking the Timberwolves plus the points at Houston tonight.
These teams just played seven days ago with Houston winning comfortably, 107-92. That win put the visitor in the series on a 4-0 run both straight up and against the spread the last four times these West Conference rivals have met.
I like the visitor again tonight plus the points to come through, as Minnesota sports a very impressive 6-2 spread mark on the road this year.
Houston has been playing solid basketball of late - winning nine of their last ten games straight up - but that fact is reflected in the line tonight, and the line tonight is just a little inflated.
Take the T-Wolves to keep it close tonight in Houston.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Memphis Grizzlies to cover at home against the San Antonio Spurs.
The Grizzlies have lost three straight, but those were on the road, and they return home where they are 6-2 this season.
After a tough road trip, being home will be a big boost.
For the Spurs, they have had their problems on the road. They are only 2-8 on the raod and 3-7 ATS in those games. This is not a good spot for the spurs.
They are playing their third straight road game in four days. They lost to Minnesota and dropped a tough game to rival Dallas. They were down, but rallied to take the lead before losing in OT, 101-100.
Memphis’ offense lights it up at home. The Grizzlies average 94.3 points a game overall, but that goes up to 106 for home games. The Spurs’ defense gives up 102.3 points a game on the road.
Being a veteran team and playing their third straight road game, it is not good for the Spurs.
2♦ MEMPHIS
David Banks
Missouri / Texas Under
Big Monday closes out on the college hardwood with a solid Big 12 battle between the Missouri Tigers (19-2, 10-6 ATS) and Texas Longhorns (13-8, 6-10 ATS) from Austin; tip-off form the Frank Erwin Special Events Center is set to go live on ESPN at 9:00 ET.
With the Kansas Jayhawks falling at Iowa State on Saturday, Missouri was able to gain a game on them in the Big 12 standings by taking out the Texas Tech Red Raiders at home a game after getting upset in Stillwater against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. With the “Border War” scheduled to go next Saturday, this is a huge road trip for Head Coach Frank Haith’s top 5 ranked squad who’ve only posted W’s in three of their five true road games played to date (2-3 ATS). Mizzou has beaten Baylor (89-88) and Iowa State (76-69) on the Big 12 road, but also has losses to K-State and OK State on its resume. A win here would allow them to remain only a game back of the Jayhawks who get to host an Oklahoma squad it pounded in the second half to pull out the 72-61 road win and cover; it’s safe to say they’ll sweep the season series on Wednesday night.
The Longhorns put up a heck of a fight in Waco over the weekend, but in the end, Head Coach Rick Barnes’ squad ultimately succumbed and fell by a 76-71 final count as seven-point underdogs. That means UT will enter tonight’s spot losers in four of their L/5 Big 12 tussles with the lone win coming at home in a non-covering effort against the Iowa State Cyclones. Losses to Mizzou, K-State, Kansas, and Baylor were incurred during that stretch, and that’s something that can’t sit well with the folks in Austin who once again had to sit through a mediocre football campaign. Already with eight losses under its belt, it’s time for Texas to circle the wagons and pull an upset that will impress the NCAA Tournament committee. To date, the only solid win it owns came against Temple back in mid December – a lot of losing has occurred since. As it is, UT’s won 12 of its 13 home games but only stands 3-5 ATS in its eight lined games.
These teams met a couple weeks back in Columbia where the Tigers handed the Horns an 84-73 loss as 9.5-point chalk. The win was Mizzou’s fourth both SU & ATS in the L/5 against UT; the ‘over’ is 3-2 during that stretch. The favorite has covered eight of the L/10 overall meetings, but the home team has come out on top of the pointspread battle in five of the L/6. Texas stands 6-1 SU & ATS the L/7 times it hosted Missouri, but stands a poor 5-11 ATS versus the L/16 +.500 opponents it’s faced. Mizzou’s 4-1 ATS its L/5 Big Monday battles, but has only posted a 17-38 ATS tally the L/55 times it went into a +.500 home team’s house. These teams have played to the ‘under’ at a 4-0-1 clip the L/5 in Austin.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh +7 over WEST VIRGINIA: Not only do teams have let down because of some big wins, but they can also have a let down from a loss. On Saturday the Mountaineers had a chance to go up late on Syracuse, but a blown goaltending call by the refs and it cost them the game. That was a demoralizing loss for this team and i'm not sure they will be fully ready to play in this one. For Pittsburgh they had an 8 game losing streak, due mainly to the absence of Trey Woodall, but they have righted the ship some to win their last 2. They have gone 0-4 in Big East road games, but their last 3 losses have been by an average of 5.3 ppg This is a team that had been losing, but was still in 6 of the 8 losses till the very end. Now Trey Woodall has had a few games back under his belt and he should be more than ready to lead the panthers in this one. The Panthers are a desperate team as they look to work they look to finish the season strong and somehow get an invite to the Big Dance and I feel they will be the more focused team here.
3 UNIT PLAY
Morgan State/ Hampton Over 127.5: Gonna go way off the grid for this one and use a play on two non-lined teams. The Last time these teams met the game was at Morgan State and there was just 124 points scored in the game, but i feel we can squeeze at least 4 more points out of this one. Hampton's last 5 games have averaged 143 ppg, while their first 3 on this home stand have averaged 147.3 ppg. The Pirates have had a lot of problems at the defensive end of late as they have allowed 74 ppg in their last 5 overall and that is really good news considering that Morgan State has come on to average 69.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Hampton has also been a bit hot offensively as they come in averaging 60 ppg overall and 67.1 ppg at home, but on their current home stand that number rises a bit to 75 ppg. Now just like the pirates, the Bears have also struggled at the defensive end as they come in allowing 69.4 ppg overall, including 69.6 ppg in their last 5 games and 72.1 ppg on the road. Let's also note that in Morgan State's conference games there has been a n average of 135.6 ppg, while Hampton's have averaged 133.1. The only reason i feel that Vegas has this number this low is due to the fact that the last 4 played here between these teams have averaged 115.3 ppg, but that was then and this is now and In looking at the numbers above, current data would indicate that this game will easily hit at least 130+, especially with the improved offense from both teams and poor defense that these teams are playing.
TEXAS +1 over Missouri: Google Play. Missouri is a very good team on offense, but their defensive play isn't that great, especially when they have taken on the better offense in the league. Missouri has allowed 77.8 ppg in their conference road games and the last time they played Texas they allowed the Longhorns to put up 73 points on them. Texas does have a good offense as they rank 55th in the nation in scoring at 74.4 ppg, while hitting 44.4% of their shots. Texas though gets a big edge on defense as they come in allowing just 65.4 ppg on39.5% shooting (35th), while at home they have allowed just 56.5 ppg on a mere 35.1% shooting. Texas is just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but they have not played that bad as they took Baylor and KSU down to the wire on the road, while also taking Kansas down the wire at home and they beat a very good ISU team on this floor as well. This is a team that is ready for a big win and with Missouri possibly peeking ahead to Kansas they should get it here behind another stellar defensive effort at home.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Tennessee Tech/ SIU- Edwardsville Over 142: SIU EDWARDSVL is 7-0 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons, while TENNESSEE TECH is 10-2 OVER after 2 straight games where they attempted 50 or less shots since 1997.
Texas Southern/ Alabama State Over 119: Play Over in all games where the total is 119.5 or less if the road team is off a win by 10 points or more, with just two starters returning from last season. This play is 45-20 since 1997.
1 UNIT PLAY
Northern Colorado -3 over NORTHERN ARIZONA: Play on road teams as an favorite or pick if they are an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after a game with a combined score of 165 points or more nd are playing against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG). This play is 84-37 since 1997.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Utah/ Portland Over 187.5: Portland has been a very good defensive team this year (92.4 ppg), but they have changed their offensive scheme to a more uptempo pace this year and that has helped them on offense, where they are scoring 97.4 ppg overall and 98.2 ppg in their last 5 games overall. The Blazers have averaged just 90.7 ppg on the road this year. but they will take on a Utah team tyhat has been struggling defensively of late as they have allowed 102.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Utah has allowed just 92.6 ppg overall at home, but 99 ppg in their last 5 on their home floor. Offensively the Jazz have been good this year overall at 97 ppg, but in their last 10 games they have done even better, averaging 102.3 ppg, while hitting at least 96 points in 8 of those games. 96 would be great hear as I don't see how Portland doesn't hit at least 94. I see a bit of an up and down game here with about 195 points being scored.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Chicago -8.5 over WASHINGTON: What a game the Bulls had yesterday vs the Heat, but in the end they came up just short. Derrick rose is not happy and feels like he let his team down. I still feel the bulls are the Best team in the eastand they showed their depth yesterday as they lost by just 4 points to the Heat, despite missing Luol Deng. Deng will be out for this mone as well, but the Bulls still have 7 other players that are averaging 7.4 ppg or more. Rose sat out with a sprained toe when these teams met Jan. 11 in Chicago, but John Lucas III picked up the slack by scoring 25 points in the Bulls' 78-64 victory. Rose is healthy for this one and he has averaged 25.1 points in his last seven games against the Wizards. The Wizards are a young team that is led by John Wall (15.9 ppg and 5.4 rpg) and he has scored 13.3 ppg in 4 career starts vs the Bulls, but the Bulls defense has also forced him into 4.3 turnovers per game in the 4 games. The Bulls have won their last six meetings with the Wizards - the last three by an average margin of more than 20 points. I expect the Bulls to bounce back with a solid win tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Against home underdogs that have been outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game if they are off a close win by 3 points or less. This play is 43-16 since 1996.
Chicago/ Washington Under 190: I don't do this too often where i pick a side and a total and make them both top plays, but I feel this is a spot to do so. The Bulls are off that tough game with Miami and I don't feel they were very happy with their defense. They did play a bit better at that end of the Floor with out Deng than i thought, but in the end they still allowed 797 points in the loss. This team is all about defense first and what better way to get back on track than vs a team that you allowed just 64 points vs earlier in the year. Overall the Bulls have allowed just 87.4 ppg and 92.8 ppg on the road, while allowing just 80.5 ppg in their last 6 games with the Wizards. The Wizards did put up 102 points vs the Bobcats two nights ago, but every scores that much on them. Washington is 27th in scoring at 88.8 ppg and that includes averaging just 92.9 ppg at home and 89.4 ppg in their last 5 overall. Chicago can score some as they are averaging 98.6 ppg on the road, while Washington has allowed 96 ppg, but even if Chicago hits 98, 99 or 100 points, it won't matter as the Wizards just won't top 85 in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The UNDER is 15-2 the last 17 in the series, while WASHINGTON is 23-8 UNDER after playing a game as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Detroit +7 over MILWAUKEE: Not sure if there will be a flatter spot in the NBA that the Bucks will face tonight, as they are BB games vs the Bulls and Lakers and have the Heat on deck. Ouch. So after beating the Lakers in their last game how do they get up for the lowly Pistons tonight. The answer is I don't feel they will. Detroit has played very bad on the road, but they have been playing better overall lately as they took Atlanta to OT, lost by 3 to Miami and beat Portland in their last 5 games. Milwaukee is off a huge win vs the Lakers and they did it without Bogut, but his loss will start to hurt the team as the season goes on. Milwaukee just spent a lot of energy in their last 2 games and with Miami on deck I don't look for them to come out fully focused in this one, leaving the door open for a Detroit cover or outright win.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Milwaukee/ Detroit Over 182: Play Over in all games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points if the road team is off 4 or more consecutive losses and are playing 6 or more games in 10 days. T his play is 29-5 the last 5 seasons.
Oklahoma City -2 over LA CLIPPERS: Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points and they are playing 6 or less games in 14 days. This play is 28-7 the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans +12 over MIAMI: Play on Underdogs of 10 or more points that is playing 8 or more games in 14 days against opponent that is playing playing 9 or more games in 14 days. This play is 29-10 since 1996.