Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 31, 2011

Marc Lawrence

Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

Thanks to an 8-6 January, the Grizzlies are looking to surpass the .500 mark for the first time since the first week of the season ? and that may be the clincher in determining tonight?s outcome. We?re well aware of Orlando?s 6-18 SU and 9-15 ATS mark on the road before facing the Heat, but even we did a double-take when we realized those numbers tighten to a winless 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS when the Magic take to the road to face a .500 or greater foe before meeting Miami. Furthermore, the Magic?s 4-8 ATS mark with no rest and their 9-13-1 ATS log away this season suggest they?ll be off-key tonight in Memphis. And, since Dwight Howard entered the league in 2004, the Grizzlies are 11-7 SU and 12-6 ATS in this series, including a Kryptonite-like 7-1 SU and ATS at home. With Memphis 13-7 SU and ATS at home this year and 18-7-1 ATS versus .500 or greater opposition on the season, we'll stay at home with the Grizzlies tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Memphis.

Tom Freese

Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

Milwaukee is 19-26 straight up this year. The Bucks are 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 Western Conference games. The Bucks are 3-10-1 ATS their last 14 meetings with the Clippers and they are 1-6-1 ATS 8 meetings at the Clippers. Los Angeles is 18-28 straight up this year. The Clippers are 7-1 ATS their last 8 home games. Los Angeles is 10-4 ATS vs. NBA Central teams. The Clippers are 9-2 ATS off a win by more than 10 points. Los Angeles is 11-5-1 ATS their 17 games following a straight up win!

Frank Jordan

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -4

Milwaukee has won three in a row to climb in to second place in the Central, but are still under .500 as the young talent is starting to gel a little. LA Clippers talent has gelled as Blake Griffin is shining the brightest of the young stars. LA is 10 games under .500, but has a winning record at home and has wins in six of their last 10 games. Look for Griffin to once again steal the spot light as the Clippers hunt down the Bucks.

LT Profits

Canisius at Fairfield
Play: Canisius +10½

The Fairfield Stags currently lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 9-1 conference mark while the Canisius Golden Griffiths are 4-6 in MAAC play, but Canisius has been very competitive and the Griffiths look like an overlay at this big price on the NCAA Basketball odds.

In fact, it is Canisius that has the slightly better record in NCAA Basketball betting in this contest, as the Golden Griffiths are 8-5 against the spread this season compared to 7-6 for Fairfield. Canisius is on a 5-1 ATS run over the last six games, including back-to-back outright wins over the Iona Gaels and the Niagara Purple Eagles. Also, Canisius is a solid 4-2 ATS in lined road games this season.

The Golden Griffiths will not scare anyone with their offense, as they are shooting only 42.5 percent overall from the field this year and 41.4 percent on the road. However, they have been able to hang in most of their games with good defense, and this NCAA Basketball matchup should be no exception. Canisius ranks a respectable 80th in the country in effective field goal percentage against, and they are a nice 49th in two-point defense at just 44.1 percent.

Now the Stags have impressively won 15 of their last 16 games straight up including the last four games in a row, but the sportsbooks are catching up to them as they are just 2-3 ATS in the last five games including failing to cover in their last two wins, and while they are still 16-4 straight up overall, this is not a team that blows anybody away offensively either, averaging a mediocre 63.8 points per game overall.

Yes, Fairfield is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to head meetings between these schools, but the Stags did not win any of those games by more than 10 points and we look for this game to be played in the single-digits as well.

Jim Feist

Raptors at Pacers
Play: Over

Don't expect a lot of defense played in tonight's contest. Neither of these clubs in the top half of the league in points allowed. The Pacers are 17th in points allowed and the Raptors are 26th. Toronto hasn't held an opponent under 100 points in seven games and 13 of the last 15 contests. While Indiana is a bit better on the defensive side, they have still allowed five of their last seven opponents to score 110 points or more. So what happens when these two clubs hook up? This year they met once at Indiana with 224 points being scored. Their last five meetings from last year; 245, 219, 206, 235 and 231 points respectively. If you like offensive games, then tonight's contest should be just what the doctor ordered. I'm going OVER tonight.

EZWINNERS

Charlotte Bobcats +3

The Bobcats finally ran out of gas Friday night against the Clippers, but I expect them to get back on track in this game against the struggling Jazz. Utah will most likely be without their best player, All-Star point guard Deron Williams who sat out Sunday’s game at Golden State with strained ligament in his wrist. The Jazz are really struggling as they have only won three out of their last ten games and two of those wins were home games against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Cleveland and Minnesota. The Bobcats are playing very well under new head coach Paul Silas and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight road games. Take the points.

Brad Diamond Sports

Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies + 2

Always difficult going against Magic formula, but the Grizzlies have been challenging the better teams at home this season. Plus, we enter a REVENGE MOTIVE tonight as Orlando crushed Memphis 89-72 already this season, but that was in Florida. So, the venue and psychology have been reloaded for the Grizzlies this time around from the situational perspective. Technically, the Grizz are a super 12-2 ATS versus winning units, which is a clear indicator of their vacillating personality. Further, it should be noted Memphis is a perfect 5-0 ATS as an UNDERDOG in this price range and 6-1 ATS in their last seven attempts on their home boards. Orlando is 1-6-1 ATS as a road favorite and 2-7-1 ATS on the road versus a winning home club. There are many edges available to those backing Memphis this evening, but surely the end result will come from Orlando being on the back end of 4 games in 6 road venture. The change effect should help reduce the overall psyche of the Magic, especially in the fourth quarter tonight.

Brent Brooks

Georgetown -5

After a three game lull , it appears GTown is back into form - winning four in a row. That turnaround starts with Austin Freeman showing why he was picked as preseason Big East Player of the Year.

The Hoyas will be facing a Louisville team that expended a great deal of energy and emotion in their at UConn. Georgetown's experience level is higher than UConn's and they should be able to defend the cutters to the basket that Louisville relied on against the Huskies.

It would be easy to take Louisville and the points here expecting them to come up with a second great road performance - but I don't see that happening. GT holds down their home floor in this one.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers

This is the Pacers first game since 86'ing HC Jim O'Brien and that's always a good 'play on' situation for NBA teams. They have the perfect opponent tonight in the Toronto Raptors, losers of 11 straight and 0-5 SU/ATS last five visits to Indiana, including a 24 point loss back in December. That's worth noting because the Raptors are 12-27 playing with same season revenge. Indiana is 15-5 ATS laying 3.5 to 9.5 points the last two seasons. Lay the points.

Play on: Indiana

Matt Fargo

Northern Colorado vs. Northern Arizona
Play: Northern Arizona -3

This is a good spot for Northern Arizona to get back to the .500 mark in the Big Sky Conference. The Lumberjacks have had a lot of time off as this is their first game in 10 days and for teams not playing too well, a break form competition can be a good remedy. The break should provide plenty of time to study film on Northern Colorado’s solid attack. Northern Arizona is 7-1 at home overall including a 2-1 record in the conference with the lone defeat coming against Weber St. by just a point. The Bears are coming off their first conference loss of the season, a one-point setback at Weber St. on Saturday. That dropped Northern Colorado to 3-7 on the road this season and while the three victories are all within the conference, they have come against teams all with losing records in the Big Sky. Granted, Northern Arizona also falls into that group but the Lumberjacks are the highest rated of the bunch and they are actually the third ranked team in the conference according to Jeff Sagarin. The Lumberjacks offense has been outstanding this season as they are ranked 10th in the country in shooting at 48.6 percent while ranked first in the nation in long range shooting, hitting 44.9 percent from behind the arc. While Northern Colorado features guard Devon Beitzel, the lumberjacks have a star of their own in guard Cameron Jones. Jones is ranked 22nd in the country in scoring, averaging 20.2 ppg and he has scored more than 20 points in four of the last five games, while averaging 26.2 ppg over that span. There is a little bit of payback on the line for the Lumberjacks. The home team had won seven consecutive times in the series before Northern Colorado defeated northern Arizona last season in Flagstaff. The Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600 while Northern Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams with a winning record. 3* Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Rocketman Sports

Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -9

Toronto is only 5-20 SU on the road this year where they are allowing 106.3 points per game. Toronto has lost 11 in a row and this will no doubt be #12 in a row here tonight. Indiana is 5-0 SU and ATS at home vs Toronto last 3 years. Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central. Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Pacers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Pacers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Pacers are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pacers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Pacers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Pacers are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Indiana tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Bobcats vs. Jazz
Play: Over 189

This game fits a totals system which has Cashed 19 of 27 times since 1995. While not high enough of a percentage to be unit rated its definitely good for the free play. What we want to do is play the over for home favorites with no rest that scored 90 or less points as a road dog vs an opponent that also scored 90 or less points and had 25 or less assists. The Jazz as a team have gone over the total 3 of 4 times this season home with no rest off a road game and 7 of 8 times vs South East Division teams. In the series 11 of the last 13 have flown over the total including all 6 here in Utah. The Bobcats have played over the total in 5 of 7 games with home loss revenge. Look for this one to Play over the total tonight. O

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Cleveland Cavaliers +17.5

LeBron James and company are coming off a big win over the Thunder Sunday. Plus, James has already defeated his former team twice this season. I just don't see the Heat being motivated enough to lay the pedal to the metal here against the worst team in the NBA. Expect Miami to go through the motions, doing just enough to come out on top. Cleveland will want this game more tonight. That doesn't mean it will win, but it should be competitive. That, combined with Miami's apathy toward this game, is enough reason to think the Cavs can keep this one within the number. Consider that Miami is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. It is only winning these games by an average of 9.0 points. Also, plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided they have a losing record, are an impressive 106-56 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

MEMPHIS +110 over Orlando

After the trade the Magic went crazy and their stock soared through the roof. It’s come down a bit but this is still an overvalued road team and the impact of that trade is starting to take effect. Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, cash and a first-round pick to the Phoenix Suns for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu is looking worse with each passing game. Turkoglu makes nobody around him better and he makes no team better. Since winning nine straight the Magic are just 6-5 over their last 11 games with victories over Cleveland, Indiana, Toronto, Houston, Philly and Minnesota. Combined, Toronto, Minnesota and Cleveland has three wins in their last 54 games. Over that 11-game stretch the Magic played four games against teams above .500 (Chicago, Boston, Oklahoma City and New Orleans) and lost them all. They also lost at home to the Pistons as a 12-point favorite. The Grizz are 14-7 at home. They recently rallied from a 21-point deficit in Philly with a 42-point fourth quarter to win it. They returned home from a tough trip and blew out the Wiz. The Grizz has won three in a row, five of six and 10 of their last 15 games. Memphis is a great rebounding team and they play their hearts out every game. We have one team on the rise, that being a pooch at home, against a team on the decline and that sets up for a nice spot. Play: Memphis +110 (Risking 2 units).

Milwaukee +4½/+155 over L.A. CLIPPERS

Blake Griffin is the next big superstar in this league and his presence alone makes the Clip Joint a tough out almost every night. The Clippers have also won seven straight at home over that span have beaten both Miami and Denver. L.A. has also won eight of its last 12 overall. Why then did the Clip Joint open as just a four-point choice against a perceived weak team from the East? It’s been bet up to 4½ and might even reach 5 by game time. This is not the same Bucks club that opened the year with a 5-13 record. They just might have the best big man in the middle in the league in Andrew Bogut and he presents problems for a Clippers team that is playing without Chris Kaman. Bogut is good for a double-double every night and it’s not like he doesn’t have support. All five starters are very capable of going off for 15-20+ points every game. The Bucks are also one of the best defensive teams in the nation, as they’re allowing just over 92 a game and only the Bulls, Hornets and Celtics can top that. Offensively, the Bucks are last in the league but those stats are a little misleading, as Carlos Delfino has played just 13 games, Bogut missed seven games, Kevin Dooley and Corey Maggette have combined to miss 12 games and Brandon Jennings and his 17-points per missed 19 games. The Bucks are beginning to make a move and have now won three in a row and five of seven. The Bucks are playing with confidence and they open up a brief three-game west coast trip here. This is an undervalued visitor because of their poor record and the oddsmakers know it. Play: Milwaukee +4½ (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: Milwaukee +155 (Risking 1 unit).